March 2011
Posted by Spectator on 03/31/11
5 Comments
After reading Doc's post, I was reminded of an interview that I vaguely recalled in which Shannon Drayer discussed Edgar's Hall of Fame credentials with Z's numbers guy Tony Blengino. I was able to track it down, and I'll import it here because it is:
1. Revealing about Edgar's value
2. Even more revealing about how Blengino uses his numbers to evaluate players
3. Insightful as to how the club might evaluate Anthony Rendon's potential value
The text that is not in quotes is Drayer. The quotes are Blengino. Highlighting is mine.
There are plenty of good arguments for Edgar Martinez in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/11
9 Comments
=== Spec ===
... sez, of Anthony Rendon,
"Hank Aaron wrists" says his college coach (who is 75 years old and played for the Phillies under Gene Mauch in 1963, so he knows what he's talking about). Rendon 6-0, 190; Aaron 6-0, 180.
The foundation of Rendon's offensive game is an innate ability to wait for his pitch.
"That's not something you teach," Rice hitting coach Mike Taylor said. "And Anthony's got supreme hand-eye coordination for this level, something I think he can take to the next level. He's also got the ability to keep his hands back and flick his wrists through the zone. I've been... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/29/11
15 Comments
=== Spec Sez ===
This:
And, maybe not-so-fast on L-Rod -- Drayer says they'll be scouring the waiver wire for a RH bat that would dislodge either him or Langerhans.
What about Arizona? Whatever happened to that Upton deal? I remember it was after-the-fact that we found out Jack was pushing 6 players at SD for AGone... in season...
The M's have done such a tremendous job this March that --- > you start to lament the fact that the M's chose not to go out and get the 100-RBI bat.
With three LH, OBP guys in the MOTO, with a refreshed Figgins / Ichiro up top, with some reinforcements at C... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/29/11
20 Comments
Q. What did the mainframe's pattern-recog algorithm told us before, and what is it telling us now?
A. It crunched that the intersection of (1) the M's having the #2 pick, along with (2) there already being a super-dominant #1 choice in the field (Rendon), that...
(3) all the M's cared about was that some! super-athlete would emerge from The Field, and that this would probably occur.
Fate's mission accomplished. It's Rendon vs Cole for the #2 pick.
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Q. Does SSI buy in to the idea that Rendon could fall even past the #2?
A. Of course not.
The ammy scouting world is a hyper-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/29/11
1 Comments
Q. What are Gerrit Cole's chances of becoming an Opening Day starting pitcher?
A. You make the call.
Here is the list of the college SP's, pretty much, from 2000-2007, who were as highly regarded then, as Gerrit Cole is now...
.
2007 - DAVID PRICE. Became an ML star, immediately after one full year in the minor leagues.
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2007 - Daniel Moskos, #4 overall, LHP 95 mph type - we'll leave him out of consideration. He probably wasn't as highly regarded as Cole; more in the James Paxton range. He's one of the Pirates' many disappointments.
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2006 - In this amazing draft, the pitchers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/29/11
14 Comments
Q. And are you going to spend an hour drawing up a list of Rendon comps?
A. No, but here's a list of the #1 college hitters taken in the 2000-2007 drafts:
2007 - Mike Moustakas, disappointment so far Thanky kindly Spec
2006 - Evan Longoria
2005 - Alex Gordon (followed by Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Braun all worthy of #1 overall, like the 2006 pitcher draft)
2004 - (no college hitter drafted in first 8 picks)
2003 - Rickie Weeks
2002 - (nobody in college drafted high; B.J. Upton and Prince Fielder were HS picks)
2001 - Joe Mauer doesn't count, except he was better than college... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/11
26 Comments
Justynius did a crackerjack of a job, reconstructing the 1998 Grandstand scoring system from memory... hope he isn't on NZT :- )
..............
When you said, "Shame nobody wrote down that scoring system," I agreed, because it was easily the most playable fantasy game I've seen.
And your phrasing kind of made something go DING in my addled mind...
Went out to the garage and fished out a 1999 Macintosh... in it, I'd saved the 1998 Grandstand points leaders...
Was an interesting experiment trying to reconstruct the points, because GS used to publish those lists with a few columns missing :- )... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/11
Q. Standing O? For what?
A. As Billy Clyde Puckett would say, that's one of your all-time great 25th-man calls.
You know how MLB front offices now have cubicle nests full of brainy interns? Guys whose searchlights are scouring the minors like Terminator HK's, looking for The Next Great Saber Discovery?
About five or ten times a year, throughout the industry, they find a Luis Rodriguez.
...........
No, LrkrBoi29, the sabr interns don't find Johann Santana five or ten times a year. They do find very intriguing fringe players with upside, George Sherrill types (though GS himself was a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/11
Q. Wow, that's a pic of Luis Rodriguez?
A. No, but we thought you'd appreciate a reminder to keep your life priorities in order. As a Mariner fan, nothing should matter to you other than this man.
Poster-quality pic by BleacherReport.
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Q. I thought that Jack Wilson or Chris Gimenez was the 25th man.
A. So did I, which is why SSI (drearily) neglected to push other posts off the assembly line, and talk Rodriguez this spring. My bad.
Gimenez was going to be the ultimate cover-your-backside, play not to lose bench pick. A third catcher who can go and stand at 3B or 1B if nobody... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/11
15 Comments
Q. Wow, another pic of Luis Rodriguez!
A. A reminder that Luis Rodriguez and Adam Kennedy have six (6) weeks to convince Jack Zduriencik to munch a $5M contract. Super stuff from Bleacher Report.
Well, actually, if both Rodriguez and Kennedy play well, as they might, the M's might even enjoy the luxury of stiffing Ackley on the Super Two status as well.
Do you think that, after it becomes clear that Wilson's the 4th-best MI, the M's will have the guts to bench him?
Anyway, thought we'd get this little shot in quick: the more April/May AB's for Rodriguez and Kennedy, the happier SSI will... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/11
8 Comments
=== Ring Out the Old, Ring In the New Dept. ===
For some wild-n-crazy reason, Royce Ring had been sold as a mortal lock for Openin' Day.
Everywhere but SSI, that is, which assessed Ring as "George Sherrill with a very sore elbow." Last time I'd seen a head-jerking, max-effort 84 fastball was in 11th grade.
Ring is ML fringe at best, and the fact that the M's don't have to scrape the mayo jar quite this loudly is --- > great news for M's fans. I mean, c'mon. Here's a "replacement level" at best pitcher and ... he's not good enough?
Well, sweet.
.BTW, in the military they have an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/11
2 Comments
=== Josh Lueke ===
Was on TV the other night.
Here are some of the things about him that were different from what I was expecting:
1. Didn't care for his delivery, at all. He doesn't bend over on the followthrough, among other things, and decels badly. His tempo is rough. He's a little max-effort. Not saying it's a fatal flaw. Tons of relievers are in the 'pen because their mechanics won't hold up to scrutiny.
2. His command, and just in general ... he's less of a finished product than we were hoping.
3. His game is based on his fastball. Or at least looked like it that night. (He... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/11
11 Comments
The Brewers looking at Michael Pineda for the second time in a week. Same guys in the lineup, even.
Nine up, nine down, 33% of Pineda's pitches swung on and missed. Together with last week's 16-for-63 .... that's 22-for-81, a 27% SW% he's rollin' on. Felix' percentage being a skosh under 10.
As we've been advised, Pineda's a solid contributor but nothing exciting. Or, as others have been advised, since he has no ML-caliber secondary stuff, he can't put hitters away.
We know, we know, it's so unlike us here at SSI, to chortle when the dice come up 7 ... but you know what they say. Be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/11
14 Comments
Cool Papa having won it last time ... Taro, the #2 finisher that year, would have gasped round after round as Kila Ka'aihue tumbled to round 15.
Dr. D's BABVA squad, despite having 12 hitters already in a 4-man Volkswagen, finally succumbed and took Ka'aihue as BP's Forecast Manager screamed a $92 value at the top of its lungs...
BABVA's post-draft squad being:
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Justin wound up with quite the rotation:
>
Spots still open in the AL-Only 12 Team league.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Posted by jemanji on 03/25/11
3 Comments
Q. What's the over/under on Gutierrez returning to health?
A. About five or ten years.
Could be less, could be more; next week we may be less specific.
But that Crohn's amigo that we've mentioned, he is a bona fide expert on G-I issues, literally sits and talks cutting-edge theories with the surgeons and specialists. Fascinating to sit and learn from him.
It took him around ten years to figure out his personal diet.
I was irrationally hopeful that the Mariners, as a big sports corporation, would have access to some super-surgeon who would quickly figure out Guti's personal diet. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/25/11
12 Comments
Q. What did Guti hit last year, again?
A. In the second half, he hit .230/.269/.332.
The 1977 Mariners did not accept .269 OBP's ... but then again, they weren't held to 513 runs.
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Q. How many runs did the expansion Mariners score?
A. They scored 513 + 111 runs. But then again, the 2010 M's didn't have access to Scrapiron Stinson.
In Dr. D's world, it does not matter how good you are (or aren't) on defense, your OBP is 269, you ain't playing.
..............
Granted, we all think that F-Gut can do better than that. But the basic idea, "Hey, his RC/game was 2.19, but he plays such... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 03/25/11
5 Comments
It was just weeks ago that the Mariners upper-shelf prospect list looked like this:
1/1A. Dustin Ackley
1/1A. Michael Pineda
3. Nick Franklin
4. Ummmmm ... *long pause* ... Taijuan Walker?
There were plenty of lists, but there was total consensus on the Top 3 and then total disagreement on how to weigh toolsy teens who were a looooong way off vs. those closer to the majors but seemingly lacking rock-solid MLB prospect status.
Well, a lot has changed in a few weeks, and most of it (sorry, Mauricio Robles and Dan Cortes) for the better.
James Paxton. Except for a brief stint in independent... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/11
37 Comments
=== Just the Fax, Ma'am ===
1) 12-Team AL Only, with enough player penetration that it matters to know who Detroit's Doug Fister is
2) Draft Saturday, April 2, 10:00 AM PST (Taro, let's push it back a week, if we can)
3) Current owners roster:
Taro
SABRMatt
Rick
Jemanji
G_Moneyball (Taro thinks he's playing; Gordon thinks he's not)
Sandy (not yet signed up)
Justynius (not yet signed up)
Need 3, 5, or 7 more owners
4) Yahoo League ID #182502, PW = babva (case sensitive)
5) Justin the previous champ
5a) Taro was #2 in that league, and the 20-team mixed league, by a lucky point or two, in both... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
11 Comments
=== Ryan Langerhans ===
TIMELINE.
ca. 2009 A.D. -- SSI books Langerhans as having a slider-speed bat. Fangraphs concurs. (Their data section, not their articles section.)
2011. Langerhans has a whale of a spring training. SSI cares not a whit.
Later 2011. M's coaches make noises about overhauling his swing. See above.
March 23, 2011. Ryan Langerhans, on TV for the first time since milestones II and III, pulls a Jorge DeLa Rosa fastball into the bleachers. This pitch was:
94 mph
LHP
Very high
Pulled
With Authority
Replayed from three angles, all showing a swing that is very... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
4 Comments
=== Luke French ===
... has improved. A lot.
We baseball fans have trained ourselves to look past 13-12 and see Cy Young winners. Saberdweebs and beat writers alike -- we can all discipline our minds that much.
We can also usually look past ERA to K:BB:HR, because our roto championships depend on it.
However, we have definitely not conditioned our minds to look past ERA on a single-game basis, because if a pitcher gives up hits and runs on Friday night, we are just as vehement against him as we ever were...
............
As Luke French's biggest cynic, Dr. D is entitled to report when French... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
25 Comments
We got Taro, me, and Justin for a draft this Saturday.
Anybody else want to square off?
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
4 Comments
=== Caveat 1 ===
It doesn't matter that much, which 7 guys you pick.
Well, you'd rather not pick a non-40-man guy for the 25-man ballclub if you didn't have to, because you'd have to let somebody go off of this list.
But what we mean is: the 7 guys you have on April 1 aren't going to be the same 7 guys you have on May 1. It's going to be a Tacoma carousel anyway. So don't over-stress about which back-end guys you start with.
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=== Caveat 2 ===
Dr. D's coefficient of confidence on these guys is NOT real high.
It's not sort of high, either, and it's not halfway between high and low, and it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
Choosing between, say, Jamey Wright and Tom Wilhelmsen is an inkblot test.
Suppose we're cutting the deck for $10,000. One pass. You come up with a 5 and I offer to let you draw again if you want?
Do you? Sure -- if it's a fair deck. But what if somebody pulled all the face cards?
The Mariners can draw 5's with Wright, Ring and Chris Ray. Do they want to draw again? That's their dilemma with French, Wilhelmsen etc.
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Jamey Wright, if cutting cards against Mike Scioscia for $100,000, would give you a 5.
Wright is this year's Sean Green or Sean White: he is an extreme groundball pitcher... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
Royce Ring is another known quantity. Cut The Cards factor = 5.
We're not trying to be caustic here, but ... the fact is, if you picture George Sherrill with a very sore elbow, that is Royce Ring, exactly.
.............
Ring throws a very minus fastball, 87 mph when he humps up. He throws a slurvy slurve - it kinda bloops in there.
But he does come LHP sidearm. And he does hide the ball pretty well (not as well as Sherrill).
Ring's has one skill to shout about: he gets super good arm action on his slurve. SUPER good.
He's almost Paul Abbott with the parachute action he gets -- he's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
Chris Ray is another guy we wrote off, the day of. We have a real aversion to Chad Cordero types, guys who never should have been closing, but who did "close" for a short time ... and who are therefore oversold the rest of their careers.
If Ray and Cordero had never pitched the 9th inning, how would they be viewed then? Ray had 5 k's and 4 bb's per game last year.
.........
True, Ray does still hit 94 on the radar gun. That's nothing to sneeze at. The Mariners cobbled a couple of good years out of another fringe guy who had nothing other than velocity, that being David Aardsma.
To... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/23/11
6 Comments
Tom Wilhelmsen draws skepticism because he pitched in A ball last year. Usually that's important, but in this specific case it's less so:
7 games, 44 IP, and 37:15:1 ... only 1 homer vs 37 strikeouts
Wilhelmsen is an old guy, comparable to George Sherrill going from Indy to MLB inside 1 year
The Mariners judge his career-arc to be no issue
He's on the 40-man roster and I'd be inclined to go with him as the 12th reliever. But you can't accumulate a series of guys who are implod-able.
............
Wilhelmsen throws hard, and remember, relieving is much easier than starting. Anybody who can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/11
Lonnie Mathis with the internet exclusive, our Johnnie-On-The-Spot who was sitting in the stands shooting the breeze .... when the M's rolled James Paxton out for a bullpen session.
Here is Lon's Mariner Central thread and his writeup is almost as good as his video.
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Aiki -- you could say, Japanese, because there is so much overlap between NPB and aikido -- sports analysis focuses on the dynamic rather than the geometric, on the spiral rather than on the circle.
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Rather than ask, "is there a hitter's box in the chest at impact," aiki asks "are the pecs deriving their power from torsion... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/11
=== Trigger ===
Paxton, in his bullpen session, was pitching from the stretch. Therefore, we couldn't tell how dramatic his rock step is or isn't. We'll venture a guess that, like Strasburg, Paxton has a minimal rock step.
Our first minor quibble is that Paxton has virtually no windup trigger from the stretch. This is very unusual, and is not a positive.
...........
A PGA golfer will typically push the hands forward imperceptibly to begin his swing - a "moving without motion" idea that allows him to raise the hammer before bringing it down, so to speak.
Many ML pitchers, from the stretch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/11
Not that this picture of Strasburg illustrates 'at the top'. :- )
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=== At The Top ===
Almost all pitchers kick the front knee and "stand tall" at the top.
The reasons being to (1) Get all the body parts on the centerline and (2) to create rhythm into the drop-and-drive.
Paxton also does not do this. LOL.
............
Well, the slo-mo at 1:02 is a trifle misleading. In that pitch, Paxton does not stand tall - but in that pitch, his knee is lower than it usually is, for him.
In his other pitches, such as the one at 0:28, kicks the knee more ... but still fails to execute the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/11
=== Cocking Action ===
To accelerate the baseball, Paxton does two things simultaneously. He:
Sinks down into a deep single-leg squat thrust, while
Angling his shoulders back towards the CF
Connecting the shoulders with the CF is a classic Japanese dynamic -- M's fans will remember Kazuhiro Sasaki as the poster child, here.
The benefit is that the entire shoulder, chest, and back area -- not just the arm -- will be accelerating the baseball.
.........
Really, you could think of that shoulder tilt as being Paxton's true windup trigger. That is where he begins to gather energy. It's an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/11
=== Acceleration ===
After Paxton sinks way down, and connects his collarbone line with the CF ... he begins his acceleration by driving his butt at the hitter.
We kid you not - check the "Sidd Finch" photo above, and go back and look at Lonnie's videos several times. Especially the slo-mo at 1:02. You can't miss it. The left (front) backside completely takes over, as Paxton transitions from coil into acceleration.
The effect is almost hilarious - it's as though he had a 12-penny nail sticking straight out of his back pocket, and he were trying to kill an attacking dog with it.
All... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/11
=== Throughstroke ===
At release, Paxton is completely over the top of the baseball with an overhand motion:
Usually, "overhand" refers to the elbow being bent at release (so the hand and the ball are higher off the ground than the elbow is).
With both Tim Lincecum and James Paxton, "overhand" refers to a (very desirable) tilt of the shoulderline.
One scout reported Paxton to be "throwing bricks up there," hard fastballs with late sink that "clonked" when contact was made. The ML prototype for this was Mark Mulder, another "physical" lefty pitcher who threw a heavy fastball and got... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/22/11
9 Comments
=== CENTERLINE ===
Though Paxton does not use the "stand tall" principle to line himself up, he achieves this anyway. His CG and head have excellent "trueness" down the CL.
His acceleration is picture-perfect, thanks to the fact that he uses his front hip to move his weight.
Per DrMikeMarshall's "driveline mechanics" paradigm, Paxton scores a perfect 10 out of 10.
Per the aiki paradigm, Paxton's amusing "lead with your butt" acceleration is also off-the-charts effective down the CL.
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=== BALANCE ===
At any point during the delivery, you get the impression that Paxton could pause and hold... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 03/21/11
24 Comments
Based on performance alone, you have to add a new name. Probably not one that will float all the way to #2, but check out what he's done so far:
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia: 5 GS, 4-0, 1.05 ERA, 34.1 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 62 K
No typo: 4 walks, 62(!) strikeouts. Hultzen is a lefty of roughly the Bedard template: low-90s and breaking stuff, but quite a bit bigger at 6-3, 200. Also an all-around athlete who plays 1b with a .316/.414/.421 batting line when not pitching. Scouts are not impressed enough with the breaking pitches for him to go #2, but he's getting himself noticed.
Lines... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/21/11
6 Comments
Hard to say with Pineda. I think you are pretty optimistic on Pineda.
Dontrell Willis had a goofy delivery that gave the league fits.
It's not hard to say at all, no. ;- )
Love the back-and-forth, Coug m'man, Ghost ... and hate to come off as dogmatic... but this one is like James selling Bagwell and the Hurt, back before the evaluation principles were public domain.
Could explain why the command is plus-plus, why the slider isn't especially dangerous and why the template - the pitcher family and the level of execution within that family - is virtually a guarantee.
The easy way to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/11
=== Fizzlers: The Lot of 'Em ===
As noted at the Bakery, the 2010 pen scrambled up the beach armed with 50-cal BMG's.
That ballclub had a 30-save closer, it had SSI swooning away over Brandon League, it had Mark Lowe and it had a guy that SSI liked even better than League, that being Shawn "94-into-a-knothole" Kelley.
This club has none of the above, because League doesn't count when he's wasted in the closer role (and not even doing that well).
Somebody Save Meh, you lose 100 with those four hombres, what happens when you deploy the Rainiers' pen? Can you lose double 100?
.............. Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/11
=== Sizzler: Luke French ===
8 innings pitched, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts, 1.13 ERA. This wouldn't matter so much, except that it's what he did during the entire second half of last year.
SSI considers French's curve to be plus-plus, a true game-changing hammer.
If French has refined his FB command within the zone, well ..... that's okay by me. A 70 curve and a located 87 fastball, that's a major league template. Barely.
.......
What Aaron Laffey is doing here, SSI hasn't a clue.
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=== Fizzler: Brandon League ===
Longtime D-O-V readers still remember -- very fondly -- his most spectacular... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/11
5 Comments
=== Fizzler: Tom Wilhelmsen ===
Not to write him off, but ...
92-95, with pinpoint command, was the bill of sale. Another Shawn Kelley, this one with 100,000 miles left on the tread.
I ha'e me doots, saith Dr. McD. Low minors control? :sniff:
Thus far he's shown me neither ("92-95 nor pinpoint command", not "Shawn nor Kelley"). And his CTL is lousy. It's 7 innings or something, but it's also three weeks, three weeks where he's trying his very hardest.
I don't say cut him. I say he ain't in the Sizzler category.
We're not certifying them ML or not, LrKr Boi. We're just saying this week... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/11
2 Comments
=== Fizzler: Felix Hernandez ===
Looks noticeably flabbier than in 2010.
15 extra pounds around the middle, that throws the balance off.
Am not alarmed, exactly, but ... almost all pitchers have UP and DWN years. Could easily visualize Felix having an 'inexplicable' down year ... the winter after his big bucks rolled in.
Hope not, but am watching it. Don't mind me - nothing to see here.
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=== Sizzler: Erikkk ===
Last September, how confident were you that come March 20 --- > he'd look like he does right now?
8 strikeouts in 5.2 innings pitched, a 1.29 ERA.
We're just saying: the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/19/11
4 Comments
=== Sizzlers: Eric Wedge ===
For those who missed the memo - which is plenty of amigos - Eric Wedge walks into the 2011 clubhouse wearing fangs down to his chin.
As Geoffy pointed out before spring camp ever started, if Wedge and an unnnamed ballplayer -- let's just call him Shawn Foulups to avoid any similarities to persons real or fictional - come to blows, then Jack Zduriencik's cut man is in Wedge's corner. Either Eric goes or I go? This year, it's you, Shawn.
.........
Ericcc's ability to dismantle a bullpen engine and forget how it goes back together --- > is well documented... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/17/11
8 Comments
Going into 2003, the 21-year-old Dontrelle Willis had no prior major league experience, but he went 14-6, 3.30 with a 127 ERA+ and won the ROY over all the hitters. I think the Marlins did good that year. Check me on that.
Willis combined with Josh Beckett, as we hope Michael Pineda will combine with Felix Hernandez, and the Beckett/Willis show carried a mediocre offense (a 97 OPS+) all the way to a World Series championship.
.........
Spec with another great post, Pineda Peer Group Rookie Comparison, demonstrating that even HOF-class rookies frequently have considerable learning curves.... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 03/17/11
11 Comments
Pitcher
Age
GS
ERA+
H/9
HR/9
BB/9
K/9
Felix
20
31
98
9.2
1.1
2.8
8.3
Beckett
22
21
99
7.8
1.1
3.7
9.4
Clemens
21
20
97
9.9
0.9
2.0
8.5
Smoltz
22
29
124
6.9
0.6
3.1
7.3
Lackey
23
18
121
9.4
0.8
2.7
5.7
Freddy
23
33
124
9.2
0.8
4.0
7.6
Wood
21
26
129
6.3
0.8
4.6
12.6
Sheets
22
25
91
9.9
1.4
2.9
5.6
Prior
21
19
122
7.6
1.1
2.9
11.3
Strasburg
21
12
139
7.4
0.7
2.3
12.2
Cain
21
31
108
7.4
0.8
4.1
8.4
Halladay
22
18*
126
9.4
1.1
4.8
4.9
Zambrano
21
16*
111
7.8
0.7
5.2
7.7
[First off, I wanted to see if I could make a table.]
Edit: Added Halladay after Sandy's comment (obvious omission); also added... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
Q. How did Pineda throw against the Brew?
A. He threw fab. He's a TOR starting pitcher. Thanks for asking.
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Q. What game was everybody else watching? :- )
A. One in which they were looking for ERA, rather than for component skills...
Quid Pro Quo Dept. At LL, our man Sully wrote up a very reasonable little report ---> balanced, though it's on the unimpressed side. So sue 'em.
SSI differs in spots, but it's a good read, a great reality check for me, being as I'm impressed with Pineda. We cross-checked it with gusto. That's what a GM would use actual cross-checkers for: he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
2 Comments
Q. Convince me in one line, that SSI is right and its cynics are wrong. On this one. The March 16 game.
A. 63 pitches and 15 swinging strikes.
Tell me, Doctor, does that "jump off the page at you"? ::jim sturgess::
And another team might have had 20 or even 22 swinging strikes, but the Brewers were razor-sharp at the plate and fouled off a lot of 95+ heaters chin-high. Other teams woulda missed 'em.
.
Q. Wow, 23.4% swinging strikes. Is that a lot?
A. Felix Hernandez had 9.9% last year. The guy who led the major leagues, Francisco Liriano, had 12.5%.
Tim Lincecum had 11.0%... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
4 Comments
Q. Pineda threw 22 consecutive strikes to start the game?!
A. GameDay is up. Read it and weep.
Of Pineda's first 22 pitches:
20 went on the board as strikes
2 were called balls, and both were questionable calls
The first pitch to Braun, GameDay shows as borderline, but on TV the catcher didn't move his mitt on a first-pitch setup. This was one of the "balls."
The first pitch to Kottaras in the 2nd, thigh high middle of the plate. GameDay records it as a blown call.
.
Q. So Pineda was throwing a strike .... literally every pitch. Is that why they looked like they were "sitting... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
1 Comments
Q. OK, it was poor strategy to park inside the zone, but the slider was still mushy, wasn't it?
A. ARE YOU KIDDING ME!
I guess if amigos can watch that game and see "soft slider," at least there's job security in it for Dr. D .... ;- )
After the first slider, you couldn'ta peeled the smile off my face, and after three of them, I was booking my 15-game plan...
Then I jump on and read that Pineda doesn't have a slider? ... Hey, pardon my gusto this morning, babe. The good news is, you get a Big Three in 2011. Take the good with the bad.
.
Q. What are the facts on Pineda's slider? The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
7 Comments
Q. So we take it, Pineda wasn't telegraphing his slider like you thought he would :- )
A. Either I was hallucinating last year, or he's completely fixed the issue ... probably the former.
Pineda's arm action is P-E-R-F-E-C-T on the slider, the deception wonderful.
We wanted to see some half positions from the hitters once in a while ... nope, they were taking full swings, again and again, often bad swings.
That's why Dr. D is so giddy. We feared for the deception on the slider, and the deception was Plus-Plus.
..........
Geoff Baker has quotes to that effect from Eric Wedge, who,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
The mainframe has its 1,024 primary coprocessors locked, loaded, and ready to crunch electron scum...
Watching channel 7 and their pregame Super Bowl keys, we can heartily endorse. At the same time, you'd be disappointed if channel 4 didn't have its own take on the pregame keys, and here be mine.
.
=== 30,000-foot View, Dept. ===
Pineda's unique combination of [velocity with command], is a given. Pineda can bring the heat, and can bring it to spots, end of story.
........
Whether there are holdups to his coronation, that depends, in my view, on two things. (1) Tipping and (2) frequency... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
8 Comments
=== UP Scenario, Dept. ===
#1 SLIDER - Pineda's offspeed pitches are inconsistent, like everybody's, including John Lackey's and Josh Beckett's. Well, Bedard's aren't, but y'know.
SSI is expecting swamp-thing to mix some tight-spin, biting sliders with some mushy sliders and with some hanging sliders.
If Pineda is coming out there and cracking off Dwight Gooden yakkers, for called strikes, with any regularity, then upgrade him to Top 10 in AL right now.
Don't expect it, but it could happen.
.
#2 - VELO - Will be curious to see how often he ventures into UPPER 90's, rather than mid 90's.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
2 Comments
ESPN All-Star league champ Justin sez,
In today's Ask BA, Jim Callis was going through the candidates for an 80 grade tool in the majors and minors - listing several Mariners, including Felix for his slider.....
"Mariners second baseman Dustin Ackley may be the best pure hitter in the minors, and Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias could be the best defensive infielder, but I'd be reluctant to hang an 80 on either.
At the major league level, Ichiro, Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols are all 80 hitters. Josh Hamilton, Pujols and Mike Stanton have 80 power. Michael Bourn has 80 speed. Franklin... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
Lonnie of MC, at spring training with a very nice camera and an even nicer sense of timing. That or a CNNSI-class rapid fire camera.
Erikkk of Balmer, taking two years' worth of rage out on a single minor league schlub. You think Cliff Lee was 'murdering souls', wait till you see what we got for yer Mr. Scioscia... heh, heh, HEHHHH...
Dr. D is a big fan of pent-up frustration. Hey, better that than Vin Baker and Derrick McKey...
No word on whether Erikkk will be screen tested for the starring role in Waterboy II.
.
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/11
Denise replies to my Felix post,
I love Felix and would not be happy to see him be traded, especially to the Yankees! Plus, Montero's not a catcher. Where's he going to play and would he be considered such a good player as a full-time dh? Let's not forget that we have Smoak at 1b. Montero's also a righty and wouldn't alot of his power be hurt by Safeco? I also would want MAJOR league players for Felix, not prospects. Prospects flame out all the time. I'd want Cano, Hughes, Montero, and a prospect or two, even then I'd still be ticked we traded Felix!
I also think you are underestimating... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/11
9 Comments
Sez G,
Only saw Ackley on a couple of days, but I don't see how he's any worse than Lopez out there, and he should have more range (Ackley's quick). WAY faster on the bases, but even on hustling to make bouncing plays in the hole. He's looking far more sure of himself even on just backing plays up or trusting his instincts. I think he'll make it as a 2B. He looks "right" out there. Cool as a cucumber.
Which jibes with the eyes he opened when he first transferred over -- the coaches wow'ing about how natural he looked, how early.
For those who just joined us, here's a tale of two SSI... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/11
28 Comments
Q. Could the Mariners 'win' a Felix Hernandez trade?
A. Easily. They could win a Felix trade, huge. In terms of WAR over the next 5 years.
That used to be my favorite way to win a weak Roto league... take some 1st-round hero and deal him for a player who was worth 85% as much, plus two other starting players.
Early in 1997, if I recall correctly, I traded the 1-1 pick Ken Griffey Jr. for Jim Edmonds / Manny Ramirez / somebody, plus Jeff Fassero (an unknown in the AL, I think), plus some other MOTO hitter.
Half the league mutinied and the other half the league wondered, "what's the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/11
8 Comments
Q. Great spring training, eh?
A. It's been a great spring for Lookout Landing. Man, they are in midseason form. They're looking at 21-7, 2.72 this year.
If you haven't seen their postgames, well ....go get 'em. Way too good'a reads for these kinda games.
.
Q. How much does 10-and-4 matter?
A. Weaver's Eighth Law: Nobody remembers in May whether you won a game in March.
There's a Weaver Law I've got real enthusiasm for.
.........
Seems I've read some articles that showed spring records to have no correlation with records in the regular season .... ah, sho' nuff, here's a very... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/11
Q. Does the hitting mean anything?
A. Four of the top 5 OBP's are from guys like Josh Bard, Josh Wilson, Steve Baron... that's the kind of thing that has zero meaning, right.
But Milton Bradley looks happy. That means anything, because Bradley is not the terrible hitter he showed last year.
Chone Figgins looks good ...Dustin Ackley's OBP is still over .500, as it was when last sighted in the AFL. Matt Tuiasosopo is swinging the bat well.
Spring training records don't mean anything. Those reflect the activities of 500 moving parts that won't even be here in April.
But to see key players... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
2 Comments
Sez Ghost,
I know you're not a Guti fan, Doc, but do you think the ugly slump last year might have had something to do with him being in continuous wretched stomach pain and barfing up lunch before his first at bat five times a week?
My default answer on this kind of question is, "sure! And if they can get Garrett Olson to hold his mitt higher in the stretch, we'll get him rolling too!"
This is what BaseballHQ calls "noise": Rob Johnson had Lasik over the offseason and personally guaranteed me he's ready to have a great year...
.
=== A Picture's Worth 1,000 Words ... But Please Spare Us... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
Gutierrez gets a total re-set, with SSI, as to where his career arc is going. Maybe he will become a franchise player, for all I know. How do I know what he can do when feeling good?
He has to get healthy, first, of course.
............
Can he get healthy?
Okay, his systemic poisoning caused his lousy 2010. The big question becomes: will that be solved in 2011?
Not with a prescription, no way no how. Not in my opinion, and remember, I ain't even a chemistry grad, much less an M.D. ....
..............
My friend got on top of his Crohn's with exactly one (1... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
Q. Wow. Michael Pineda's a Mariner on Opening Day, just like the Mainframe said he'd be. Like LT asked the Waterboy, how do you find yourself in such great position every single time?
A. Hey babe, it's like Broadway Joe said after Super Bowl III in 1969. It's just another triumph for clean living.
.
Q. Besides Pineda being great, what was the deal-io - why was he a lock for the 2011 rotation?
A. He was going to come to camp and be the best pitcher on the field, including Bedard and Felix. Well, maybe not including Bedard. For the hordes just jointing us, the SSI shtick gets a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
Q. Why does Jack Zduriencik not "realize" that [32 starts in 2017] are worth more than [three starts right now]?
Did Milton Bradley drop him on his head? Or is he in that much of a panic over his job?
A. When somebody smarter than you does something you can't begin to comprehend, check your pockets.
It is a sure sign that there is something you don't get. It is a guarantee that there are light bulbs you have off.
Have the humility to learn something, and you won't be so stupid next time. We mean it in a good way.
.
Q. Is it possible that Jack Zduriencik has not noticed the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
Q. OK, when do 3 starts mean more than 32?
A. Whenever you're asking 25 large men, packed into a small room together, to --- > take off their dresses, to stop being wussies, and start being winners.
.
Q. Zduriencik is asking the Mariners to win in 2011? Doesn't he read the blogs? He's supposed to write off 2011 and rebuild right.
A. Very easy for you to blow off 2011, pokey. ;- ) You ain't taking in $250 million in gross revenues for the 162 games between April 2011 and September 2011.
Geoff Baker asked John Hart this question just a week or two ago: would you bury Ackley and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
2 Comments
Q. But is it realistic for the Mariners to win in 2011?
A. It has to be. When's the last time the Mets punted a season?
........
Hey, guess when the last time was that the Mariners were 61-101? Besides last year?
The Mariners were precisely 61-101 in 2008, also. They won 85 games the next year and were only -4 games out at the All-Star break. To you that was an aberration; to Jack Zduriencik, it is the process he needs to execute in 2011.
The M's are a big-market team. They've got Felix, Ichiro, young guys coming in -- this isn't a Royals situation.
.............
Every year, there is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
11 Comments
Q. OK, so you have to play tough in April. You can't do that without Pineda and Bedard?
A. Wedge is here, the plastic vampire fangs and satin-lined cape, because the Mariners are serious about playing to win in 2011.
We fans are always whining about coddling the players. Hey, why should Chone Figgins have to hit 2nd? If 9th helps the club, why can't he accept it?
Real MLB teams can't ask players to give up comfort zones, if the entire franchise is a loser.
The Mariners want to ask some players to accept roles. It means asking certain players to get on board and show good attitudes... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/11
Q. What does Dr. D see for Michael Pineda in April-May 2011?
A. It can go either way. Pineda's not a guarantee.
There is the possibility that Pineda could be the best pitcher in the league in the first half of 2011, but there are several things that could go wrong:
Maybe he will still be telegraphing his offspeed stuff
Maybe he will miss too many pitches in the center of the plate; his control is not yet completely developed
Maybe .... whoops, I'm out of possible problems
The quality of the offspeed stuff is not an issue, for two reasons: (1) it's a lot better than people think, and (2... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 03/14/11
While most of the college guys at the top of the draft were playing for the Team USA collegiate national team last summer (including Cole, Gray, Barnes, Rendon [until he injured his ankle], Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr.), the teenagers were barnstroming a bit, too, for the 18U National Team.
Of most interest to Ms fans are three of the teen idols:
3b Marcus Littlewood, who was drafted in the 2nd round by the Ms in 2010 and has signed;
SS Francisco Lindor, who is moving up draft boards toward the top; and
CF Bubba Starling, who is already considerd top-5 and could rise all the way to top-2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/11
14 Comments
Gerrit Cole and ... Tim Lincecum?!
Let's see if we can aspire to the Josh Beckett level of magnitude first, and if so, that's plenty high enough for any one mortal baseball-chucker.
...............
If analysts are going to start calling hot pitchers "90% of Stephen Strasburg" they're going to get their evaluations completely fouled up.
The extra two feet on Strasburg's stuff makes him a different animal - like if there were an NFL wide receiver that could run 3 mph faster. If there were a WR who could run 31 mph, then a guy who ran 28 mph wouldn't be 90% of him.
Or with Ichiro. His extra... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/10/11
6 Comments
G-Money sez,
Don't see Poythress as a TTO guy, though I do like him....
I just don't think Poythress walks enough to be compared to the Dunns and Big Hurts of the world.
Poythress is right at 155 games in the minors, which is a cheerful little happenstance, since it is exactly the number of games that 5x5 roto chumps use to calibrate "full season." B-Ref.com gives you totals per 162, but 5x5 book salesmen give you HR's per 155...
In those 155 games in the minors, Poythress sits at:
155 games
130 strikeouts, 72 walks, 33 homers
35 doubles, 0 triples, .532 SLG (and a lot of road HR's too)
.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/10/11
G goes with a Greg Vaughn comp:
Still, I do think he's got some Greg Vaughn in him, and I wouldn't turn down that by ANY means. I could very much see a .260/.340/.500 hitter out of Poythress. That puts him right in line with Vaughn and some other huge guy named Sexson as a dangerous right-handed power bat that's probably somewhere short of elite (especially in Greg's case).
Funny you should bring Vaughn up... in the early 1990's, Bill James comp'ed every then-Mariner to another ML player, and the Jay Buhner comp at that time was Greg Vaughn...
The career arcs became eerily similar, with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/11
21 Comments
Maybe the most awesomely polarizing figure who is currently playing in the M's minor league system. :- )
.
=== Frank Thomas or Bryan LaHair ?, Dept. ===
I/O from HQ:
Grade 7C. May see some time in the majors in a role. (Mike Carp had a grade one notch higher, at 7B, and Matt Mangini had a grade 2.5 notches higher, at 8D.)
Big and strong. Productive at level - led all of minor leagues in RBI.
Mature approach at plate has produced excellent AVG as well as OBP, and not without some "interesting" power to left field (Poythress bats right hand).
Lacks trigger and load in swing, which HQ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/11
== More Alike Than They Were Different ===
Poythress is definitely a Three True Outcomes (TTO) pitch-stalker, but you'll notice that he doesn't have Frank Thomas' EYE. Nobody does!
Lest you delude yourself into thinking that Frank's Freakish EYE ratios were the key to his template, check Manny Ramirez' template too.
Manny, as a very young player in the minors, had a decent EYE but not a great one. It was only later that his stalking jelled into the .411 career OBP that we recognize now.
Don't kid yourself that a RH power hitter has to have more BB than K in the minors. The technical term... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/11
The Swing: Seeing HQ's skepticism, we were more than prepared to write Poythress up as a Bryan LaHair ... a big, productive minors hitter who (indeed) lacked the swing load to hit HR's against top-flight pitching, and who idled out at org level.
Not that the jury is yet out on LaHair, who is still whaling away and bashing AAA pitching waiting for his chance, but you know what we mean ...
.
We went over and looked at Poythress' swing and --- > got very excited. Rich Poythress has the following things in common with Mark McGwire and the way Mac swung the bat:
Wide stance, no step, clean... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/11
4 Comments
SSI Crunch: SSI always thought it was too bad that Bucky Jacobsen ate himself out of a career; I'd have liked to have seen whether he might not have had a couple of 90-RBI seasons, if healthy.
I am partial to these WWF Hulk Hogans who move easily, who are light on their feet and who sport those hilariously-compact routes to the pitch. Bucky Jacobsen was able to stay very compact to the ball and still drive it hard .... of course, McGwire is the reductio ad absurdum here.
But rest assured that Poythress is in the same category.
...........
Even the complaints about his footwork and speed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/11
Buy BaseballHQ.com's Minor League Baseball Analyst here.
.
=== Trick Question: What Would You Give for a 24-Year-Old Omar Vizquel ? ===
I/O from HQ (paraphrased as usual): Grade 7B. Will probably become a defensive-oriented ML middle infielder with significant playing time at his peak.
Athletic, wiry-strong infielder whose glam defense is a given; has range, hands, quickness, power arm, everything...
... but whose bat has disappointed even for his age and level. Intersection of [lots of K's] with [no power anyway] creates serious problems with future projection.
..............
I/O The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/09/11
SSI CRUNCH: Don't oversell the first 200 games' worth of travail at the plate. Noriega needs more of a chance to show what he can do.
.
What the early disappointment does suggest, though, is that Noriega may be 26 or 28 before he contributes with the bat. That was the case with Omar Vizquel himself.
Youngsters may only remember Vizquel as a leadoff hitter for playoff teams. But in Seattle Little O was wayyyyyyyy overmatched in the bigs, despite being there for his glove, slugging in the 200's for quite a few seasons. He only figured out a way to contribute at about age 28 or so.
Ozzie... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/08/11
15 Comments
Discussion thread for Yahoo League 73761. Drafting March 26th. Thanks Justin!
................
1. I'm going to pretend not to notice what any of the team names, or league name, reference. :- )
2. I did notice, however, that Albert Pujols is in the player pool. That makes me suspicious that this could be a mixed league (of course with these owners, you can't rule out the possibility that they have info at MLB headquarters as to a pending trade).
3. How many of the teams are owned by people I know? I recognize Taro. Can you bring me up-to-date Justin as to anybody else I know?
4. G... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/08/11
6 Comments
Spectator sez,
Solid outing from Wilhelmsen (Mar. 8); wobbly but unscored-upon outing from Robles
============
Wilhelmsen's first fastball was 90, but he quickly got up to 93 and sat 93-95 the rest of his inning.
Struck out Eli Whiteside swinging on 93mph fastball.
Struck out Darren Ford looking on 76mph curve.
Got Miguel Tejada to ground out on 75mph curve.
============
Robles started at 88 and never got over 91.
Got Aubrey Huff to ground out on 74mph slider.
Got Buster Posey to pop up on 83mph change.
Nate Schierholz doubled on 90mph fastball.
Thomas Neal walked on 4 pitches (not... Read More
Posted by malcontent on 03/07/11
Of course I decided to write this after the suprised reaction to Olivo's steal of third base last week, and waited to post it until after he pulled his groin. Still Olivo is fast, he may be the fastest catcher in the major leagues. The first indicator you might use would likely be stolen bases, and using fangraphs leaderboards, Miguel Olivo is 4th in stolen bases among catchers over the last 2 years. Of course being 4th among catchers in stolen bases is like...being 4th among people who aren't very good at something. But notice that Olivo has the fewest games played, (of course) the... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 03/07/11
33 Comments
Just my opinion. Rankings are Mariner-specific, which means (everything else being equal, of course):
Factor 1: Safeco -- LH pitchers benefit; RH hitters penalized
Factor 2: "2014" -- Felix contract up after 2014; Ichiro will be 40 in 2014
A "pure" abstract ranking of who would be the "best pick" might be different.
1. Anthony Rendon, RH 3b, Rice.
Starting to lap the field in Strasburgian fashion. 20 H, 8 xbh (4 dbl, 1 tpl, 3 HR), 13 BB (vs. 5 K) all in just 13 G. .435/.574/.761 -- with the new bats that were supposed to sap everyone of their power.
Some say: "imagine if Mark... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/06/11
3 Comments
Yahoo 20-team champ Cool Papa Bell sez,
Dr. D, are you aware of the damage Dylan Unsworth did in his first round of pro ball? In 50 innings, he had 44 strikeouts and only ONE walk. And he was only 17. Yet he wasn't mentioned in Churchill's Top 30. How is that possible? I'm sure Churchill would respond by saying that he has underwhelming velocity or whatever, but there are tons and tons of mediocre pitchers of all ages who pass through the minors and they don't put up those kinds of video game numbers. Is there really any way that he isn't a serious prospect? I can't imagine there... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/05/11
11 Comments
Bladestunner found a video of Ichiro pitching in 1996. With the attention Ichiro gets, how did we never hear of this? Am I the only one who missed it? :- )
.............
For those who just joined us, it didn't used to be a huge deal to let a position player pitch once in a while, until Jose Canseco tore his TJ ligament in a 1993 game for Texas.
As you might expect, there were about 83 things that set Canseco up for his karmic comeuppance, including but not limited to:
Dr. Jobe related later that the ligament was partially torn before the outing...
... 'cause Canseco was way too big for... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/11
Q. You're kidding, right. What is the story.
A. Laffey has an option left, and as Baker explained, if Laffey "ties" the race with anybody like Nate Robertson, Laffey goes to AAA.
And they work on him for a year. See if they can help him leap a plateau.
Baker emphasizes that Zduriencik volunteered this info right out of the gate, here's a guy with an option left. We're mixing some corn starch in, thickening the gravy in the AAA talent pan a bit. Don't get too OCD about this one.
.
Q. That implies that he has a possible plateau in him somewhere. Does he?
A. He doesn't, no.
Aaron... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/11
15 Comments
Q. Lookout Landing came up with Horacio Ramirez. You think?
A. Great comp. Especially the bogus idea that baseball had, about maybe groundballs saving a 1:1 CTL pitcher in this template. People (including the great Bobby Cox) also thought this about Ramirez.
Groundballs are fine, but they're not going to bail out this family of pitchers ("Should Be Flipping Burgers" family).
You know what, sabermetrically it's a real good comp, because there is one (1) (uno) thing to smile about in Laffey's record: his HR rate.
.
Q. Is that SSI's comp?
A. At the SSI booth here in ComiCon 2011, we... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/11
3 Comments
=== Prospect Insider ===
Jason has his own Top 15 out.
Slap me silly, there are some wowza matchups between his list and BaseballHQ's.
Both have Mauricio Robles considerably lower than the consensus ... both have Pimentel as the marquee, #4 Mariner farmhand after Nick Franklin (Ackley and Pineda don't count any more) ... both have top-100 prospect James Jones at exactly the same (low) slot ... there are four or five other interesting synch's.
I'd a guessed that Jason had been working off an advance copy of MLBA, except that he's vastly more booked-up on the M's system than any national... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/11
12 Comments
=== Baker's 'Around The Blog-O-Sphere' ===
Geoffy has been dealing out the pub to us 'net rats pretty heavy. He can get like 8,000 viewers to his video notebook alone, so this is a little bit like the Atreides family passing literjons of water out the back door of the palace to the masses of Arrakis...
If you hit the actual video reel, as Baker discusses the day's net rat-tage, he opens with SSI's Paxton series and deadpans to his huge audience that "Clarke would trade eight Taijuan Walkers for one James Paxton. Remember, Walker was a first-round pick himself..."
Yeah, he was aware that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/11
2 Comments
G-Money with a Paxton link that's too good not to be on the marquee:
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=697
"So far this spring, Paxton is 3-0, 3.86 in four starts, with 37 strikeouts and only 3 walks in 23 innings pitched. Included in that was a March 14 start against Louisiana State where Paxton matched up against the Tigers 2010 ace RHPAnthony Ranaudo. Both pitchers left after six innings in a game that LSU would eventually win 5-3, but not before Paxton struck out 14 against perhaps the top offensive unit in college baseball.
Now THAT'S not talking about a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/11
3 Comments
Spec sez:
Tui is essentially the same age as Carp and Mangini. Clearly, the experiment with 2b/SS is over (since they brought in about 8 dozen scrap heap middle infielders over the winter), but they don't seem to have ruled him out as corner IF/corner OF bench guy. They've had him at 1b in drills and in LF today (2-RBI single just a bit ago).
And out of those 3, he's the only RH bench option. Can he punch the reset button like Mangini did, or has he underwhelmed at the MLB level one too many times?
Maybe we should let G take this one :- ) but... I have not yet tired of his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/11
1 Comments
Q. Does SSI go Bull or Bear on James Paxton?
A. SSI gives two thumbs way up to The Paxton Concept.
Full Disclosure Dept: I have a personal bias towards two-pitch starters like Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson and Dwight Gooden. It's geometrically easier for them to learn to execute their own games.
Most young pitchers get hurt before they learn to contribute to the big club. The two-pitch strikeout guys have a much cleaner path to impact.
.
Q. Paxton doesn't need to develop a change and learn to hit the blue cold zones on everybody's strike zone chart, like Luke French does?
A. If you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/11
2 Comments
Q. Young two-pitch beast LHP's tend to add pitches in the majors, right?
A. Right. Sabathia went 17-5 as a rookie, 171 strikeouts in 180 innings, throwing only two pitches.
In Sabathia's second season, he was real good again, and beginning in that year (2002) we have the F/X data:
70.1% fastballs, 92 mph
23.2% curve balls, 78 mph
6.7% something else, 80 mph (these were undoubtedly curves)
But, of course, anybody with an arm like Sabathia's (or Paxton's) can learn some kind of grip that makes the ball swerve, and beginning year 3, Sabathia started using a change.
We can only hope... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/11
5 Comments
Q. OK, what's Paxton's template? What's a "physical" lefty?
A. Bill James characterized this Pitcher Family as "The Blow 'Em Away Lefties," referring to attack LHP's with high velocity, high K's and sometimes some funky things that went with their games. (He pointed out that this kind of pitcher tends to look very humorous in the batter's box.) Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Sandy Koufax being the colossi of the genre.
Somebody in the M's org, McNamara maybe, characterized Paxton as a "physical lefty."
I imagine that he was talking about the facts that:
Paxton's a big, tall... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/11
Q. Will Paxton still throw 95, like he used to when he was projected to the top 10?
A. First of all, Kershaw, Sabathia, etc. average 92-93, not 95+.
They can reach back.
...............
Second of all, Paxton gets the 300 horsepower to the back wheels.
He gets that arm wayyyyyy extended, like Mark Langston used to, he comes around like a ballista, finishes as loose as a goose, like Randy Johnson, and the ball just whooom lights up the gun.
You know how Daniel Cortes reaches back, SNAPS his head to pull his body around, slams the ball through with all his might, and finishes by trying not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/11
5 Comments
Q. Wow. Sounds like SSI is advertising Paxton as a top-10-in-the-draft type.
A. ::shrug:: That was the consensus before the nicks, dings, and holdout -- because that specific LHP toolbox is a rare and very kewl deel-ee-oh.
Any left hand pitcher who:
Throws with that much easy velocity
Throws overhand
Puts his curve in the strike zone
Translates it into 115/20 CTL results
Doesn't have some giant asterisk attached
... is going first round. Kershaw did, even out of high school.
.
Q. Would SSI be visualizing this ML glory for Paxton, had he been drafted by (say) Billy Beane?
A. If James... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/11
Still amazed that you are both a Mariners AND an Arsenal fan Doc. I thought I was the only one on the planet.
"By my count, Wilshere is Arsenal's 10th-best player"
I really can't let this pass...you can't be serious can you? Jack has been arguably the best player on the pitch for the past month or so. He's been man of the match three times and has carried the play in the center of the pitch. I know it's not glamorous work but it's worth paying attention to what he's done and this makes no mention of his age!
What's the timestamp of the original post? :- )
It was February 12... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/11
Posted to blog
2 Comments
Number 10 for Arsenal at this point? Nada. More likely that Wilshere is number 10 in the Premiership...
No, just kidding. Still and all, even where he is now, of course Fabregas, Nasri, and van Persie are better. At the moment, for the Barca game I'll take Arshavin, the unsung-MVP Alex Song, and I might still take Wolcott as more important for that game. Wolcott provides the all-important spacing to the pitch with his pace.
Clichy and Sagna, you could argue about.
I realize what English fans think of Arshavin, and that Wenger won't even start Arshavin v. Barca, if Wolcott is fit.
But... Read More