Q.  What does Dr. D see for Michael Pineda in April-May 2011?

A.  It can go either way.  Pineda's not a guarantee.

There is the possibility that Pineda could be the best pitcher in the league in the first half of 2011, but there are several things that could go wrong:

• Maybe he will still be telegraphing his offspeed stuff
• Maybe he will miss too many pitches in the center of the plate; his control is not yet completely developed
• Maybe .... whoops, I'm out of possible problems

The quality of the offspeed stuff is not an issue, for two reasons:  (1) it's a lot better than people think, and (2) he doesn't need it nearly as much as people think.

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Q.  Is there a book on him yet?

A.  A lot of times, a spectacular young starter will come in and land with a splash ... it will take a while for the batters to retreat foxhole-to-foxhole and then cobble together a game plan.

Felix Hernandez ran a 2.67 ERA in his first go-round, a 158 ERA+ in twelve starts ... the next year, he ran a 4.52 ERA (in Safeco) as the batters put a coherent game plan on him.  That being to sit dead red and try to hit his over-challenging fastballs out.

Pineda commands those 96 mph within the strike zone, so I honestly couldn't tell you what the right idea would be against him.  Bucket of peanuts to distract him as he comes in out of the bullpen?

Real good chance, 60% maybe?, that Pineda is a sensation, the first two months.

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Q.  Where does he go in the draft?

A.  In my AL-only roto league, 15 American League starters have been taken and Pineda's still there, I'm taking him.

And if he's the #16 starter in the league, how can you leave a weapon like that off the battefield?

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Q.  Stats?

A.  Spot me the premise that Pineda stays healthy enough for 25-30 starts:  

• 180 IP
• 3.30 ERA
• 150 K
• 70 BB
• 30 starts, 18-20 quality starts

Yeah.  I know that would make him one of the league's best starters.  Which he is.

.... Hey, BP's got him for 3.49, 87:35 in 103 innings, and that was assuming him to stay down until June.  Guess PECOTA likes his slider too.

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Be Afraid,

Dr D