Another SSI Best Bet

Hard to say with Pineda.  I think you are pretty optimistic on Pineda.

Dontrell Willis had a goofy delivery that gave the league fits.

It's not hard to say at all, no.  ;- )

Love the back-and-forth, Coug m'man, Ghost ... and hate to come off as dogmatic... but this one is like James selling Bagwell and the Hurt, back before the evaluation principles were public domain.

Could explain why the command is plus-plus, why the slider isn't especially dangerous and why the template - the pitcher family and the level of execution within that family - is virtually a guarantee.

The easy way to perceive Pineda's command -- for a rookie, now -- is to simply count his BB's vs pitches centered (HR's).  How many rooks walk 2+ without centering the pitch?

The harder way is to count the way he throws his various fastballs -- on the black, up the ladder, up-and-in.  He throws a TON of them for a rook, far more than Felix ever did ... probably as many as Felix does now.

The questions about his velo are obvious silliness.  We mean it in a good way.  Not gonna debate the question of whether Felix has hair on his fastball, and not gonna debate it with Pineda for exactly the same reasons.

...........

But you know what, three starts into the season, all these conversations will be 100% forgotten.  It's easiest just to let you guys see a couple of starts in the reg season than to spend a coupla thousand words demonstrating why he'll be a TOR right away.

Know that comes off as imperious, but this one is shooting fish in a barrel.  :- )  Pineda isn't quite as good as Lincecum, but the Best Bet is the same:  he's an SSI easy call.  

And we're a month in advance of the rest of the world 'getting it' too.  So why not just let Pineda throw a wipeout game or two and let that take care of it?

The Morning After his first 7 3 1 1 1 7 game, are people gonna jump online and do anything but rave?

Take the good with the bad:  you got a Big Three that will just cause pesky rodent AL west rivals to scurry for the cover of darkness.

:daps:

..............

The Dontrelle Willis post was not a comp:  it was no more and no less than a response to [readers' response to] Spec's rookie pitchers post.  The readers' reaction was that rookie pitchers probably aren't going to help you turn anything around.

A LOT of rookie pitchers have turned teams around.

That's all.  Other than that, Willis and Pineda are apples and oranges, sure.

................

Bemusing to SSI that a lot of people question Pineda, as they did Lincecum.  Job security for Dr. D.  :- )

...............

That last Pineda start that has everybody overreacting.  Riddle me this.  What was his BABIP in that game?

If Pineda gives up 1 BB and 0 HR in his starts, as he did vs. the Brewers -- and he very often will -- what do you predict will happen?  A .470 BABIP against him?  

Throwing out your saber light bulbs now, dudes?  You've seen him for 4 IP, and he had 7-of-15 balls* fall between fielders, and you're skeptics?  

It was one start, guys, an unlucky one.  Michael Pineda is the real blinkin' deal.

.

Be Afraid,

Dr. D

Comments

1

Had a friend who used to espouse a belief in the "Universal Law of 50/50".  In any given situation, when asked the odds of whether "X" would occur, he would say - 50/50 chance -- either it will, or it won't.
For rookie pitchers, I think your comp list did a good job of showing just that -- with a list chock full of HOF pitchers, the first season results were mixed.  There were some excellent starts right out of the gate - and some ho-hum struggles to be average.  And that was for (mostly) HOF class talent.
Can Pineda succeed in 2011?  ABSOLUTELY!!!
Can Pineda fail in 2011?  ABSOLUTLEY!!!
The likely reality is he'll have some success (some 10-K, 3-hit gems), and some failures (3 innings, 7 hits, 3 dingers). 
Willis is (IMO) a wonderful name to throw out - because, yes, he did dominate in HOF fashion from day one - and THEN fell off the table into disasterland.  It's a warning to not forget that regardless of talent pitchers are VOLATILE. 
Pineda could star in 2011 and suck in 2012.  It happens.  It's not a prediction - it's an examination of past performance from other pitchers.
The ultimate truth here is that Pineda's "template" is vastly more likely to turn into a TOR HOF Yahtzee!!! than say ... Fister. 
People forget that Felix, despite all his talent, went through phases where the blog-o-sphere were complaining loudly about how he got careless or too aggressive or too predictable. 
The part the is lost in translation is that it is NORMAL for pitchers to learn through EXPERIENCE.  And if your experience is 100% good, you're not learning much.  Ask Sandy Koufax how long it took him to learn his craft.

2

Certainly no team in the West, perhaps in the league has three true #1/#2 guys.  In a best case (and actually possible) world, one where Jupiter aligns with Mars (Hair!, Doc), the M's have Ace, Ace-lite, and Ace-in-the-making at the top of the rotation. 
Fear the short series if you're the Royals or Blue Jays. 
Add a Herky Jerky lefty who lobs an Uncle Charlie up there that rolls off the table at 76 MPH, plus a guy who throws a million less-than-impressive FB's that are on the black, black, black, and black....
And this rotation become REALLY interesting. 
But...if it goes the other way and Bedard breaks, and Felix collapses all the way to a 132 ERA+ (Oh..the horror), and Pineda tweaks an elbow, etc, etc, etc...
Then we're down to a #4 guy named French. 
Anyway.  Pineda is going to get guys out......and make them look silly.  He has done so everywhere he's thrown...he will this year, too. The template doesn't lie.  Heck, he probably baffled kids when he was 7 yrs. old and playing backyard wiffle ball.
What do you see as the over/under bet on Pineda innings this year, assuming he stays healthy?
139 innings last year was a career high.  So, let's see.  How about 27 starts (Which means they skip him 5 times).  6 innings per = 168 innings.  That seems like a fair O/U, what do you think? Perhaps a bit too optimistic? 
So there is some need on this team of a #6 starter.  Assuming Bedard gets 27 starts and Pineda gets 27...We're missing 10-11 starts even if Vargas, Fister and Felix NEVER miss a day up. 
Pauley?
Moe

3
ghost's picture

I question whether it was SPECIAL velocity. It's GOOD velocity, but by itslef...is it special? I also watched the same game you did, Doc...and disagreed with your conclusion that Pineda was commanding his fastball. I don't think that he was. I think he missed very badly with his fastball (and got strikes anyway) at least 10-12 times...that's not including the balls he threw. I also think that his low HR rate in the mimnors is likely to rise significantly in the majors because his fastball looks arrow...arrow straight to me. Let me put it to you this way, Doc... King Felix' rookie season, his ERA+ was 98. Does Pineda have more velocity than Felix? NO! Does Pineda have better secondary pitches than Felix? NO! Does Pineda have better command than Felix? NO! Is Pineda's fastball livelier than Felix? Not even CLOSE. Is his game simpler to execute than Felix' was? Not really. Is he pitching in a better environment than Felix? NOPE So why should I predict he'll do better than Felix did in his rookie year?

4

"The likely reality is he'll have some success (some 10-K, 3-hit gems), and some failures (3 innings, 7 hits, 3 dingers)."
I agree with this assessment. Pineda is clearly among the top 5-10 RH SP prospects in baseball - if you disagree, you're arguing against the consensus. He has demonstrated the ability at times to dominate against every level of competition. Stuff-wise, he is ready to be a quality MLB SP.
However, one of the most difficult adjustments for pitchers in the upper levels is the need to stay sharp for all 100-120 pitches. Unlike A/AA, mistakes at the major league level will - not might - be ripped. For 2011, I'm expecting Pineda to post a similar line to his 2010 at AAA - lots of K's, low hits, moderately low walks, but lots of XBH's and fairly high ER's allowed. Dominance mixed with schlackings, with minimal middle ground.
I'm going to have to agree with whoever pointed out D-Train's delivery. He did get hurt, but his downfall was well before the injury. Willis didn't have dominant stuff, he was a gimmick pitcher about par with Hideo Nomo and he went from ace to scrub as soon as the scouts figured him out. His success was more of a fluke than the Woods and Lincecums and Strasburgs.

5
ghost's picture

When Felix came up, we were all coronating him...and justifiably so. He was CLEARLY the best pitching prospect baseball had seen since Roger Clemens' debut. It wasn't even a question of whether he'd dominate...just when. But his first year was full of ups and downs leading to average net results.
Pineda isn't the absolute can't-miss that Felix was...but he's still a fabulous prospect. The problem, though, is that you can't expect a guy who isn't something truly special in terms of his potential to dominate the league with either a gimmick or a unique angle or a different kind of pitch, etc, to dominate right away on a game in game out basis. He's young enough that he has things to learn about repeating his delivery, being consistent in his game plan, adjusting to the situation, pitching differently to different hitter types, etc. Why should I expect Pineda to be more consistent than Felix blinkin' Hernandez? I can't really see the reason.

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