PrOTD LHP James Paxton - Pitcher Family

Q.  OK, what's Paxton's template?  What's a "physical" lefty?

A.  Bill James characterized this Pitcher Family as "The Blow 'Em Away Lefties," referring to attack LHP's with high velocity, high K's and sometimes some funky things that went with their games.  (He pointed out that this kind of pitcher tends to look very humorous in the batter's box.)  Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Sandy Koufax being the colossi of the genre.

Somebody in the M's org, McNamara maybe, characterized Paxton as a "physical lefty."

I imagine that he was talking about the facts that:

  • Paxton's a big, tall, thick-chested guy
  • He has "easy velocity" compared to, say, Erik Bedard
  • And he can reach back to overpower guys on 2-2
  • He is expected to chew up 200+ innings
  • He doesn't need to Jamie Moyer it every AB

Max Scherzer is a "physical" starter, a guy whose game revolves around physical and metaphorical power.  Curt Schilling was.  Baseball types love to have them on their teams.  It charges the whole ballclub with macho.

It's a colorful phrase that captures the CC Sabathia, David Price, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton type.  I hope it catches on in the stands.

...................

As with Price, Sabathia, Chuck Finley, Jeff Fassero, etc., Paxton gets on top of the ball, and his curve breaks down.  Hard.

That's unusual.  Most lefties' centrifugal arc is fundamentally sideways to the hitter.  Randy Johnson being the reductio ad absurdum.

The overhand lefty, the Finley type, is making things harder on himself, so to speak, but if he can manage it ... well, a 94 LHP fastball high in the zone is vicious enough.  Now what if the hitter doesn't know whether it will stay letter-high, or drop to the knees?

SOOOooooooo many two-pitch overhand LHP's dominate right out of the gate.

.

Q.  Got a visual for us?

A.  If you want a video reel, to remind you just how easy an overhand LH fastball and yellow hammer can make a game of baseball, check out this video of Clayton Kershaw.

You'll see the two-plane effect -- Kershaw going up in the zone with the heater, then dropping the curve off the same plane. 

They're caught "in between" -- they swing belt-high and they're always wrong :- )

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Q.  Is Kershaw a two-pitch guy?

A.  Of course.  Here's the F/X.   Every seven pitches:  5 are heaters, 2 are power curves.  He averages 93 mph with the heater.

The two pitches, of course, are why Kershaw could debut as an excellent ML pitcher at age 20, barely two years out of high school.  It is simply easy for these pitchers to execute their games.

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Comments

1

If they were to draft Purke, they'd have three mid-90s lefties.  Of the three, Paxton most fits the Carlton template -- Robles is short and stocky; Purke wiry and whippy (but Purke fits right into the "flaky" aspect).  Paxton seems like the safest bet if can shake off the rust.
If Paxton and Wilhelmsen are both firing along smoothy by June, it would make it a lot easier to take a hitter at #2, I will grant that. 
And as an aside, since you mentioned him -- did anyone know that Jamie Moyer had TJ surgery so he could make a comeback at 49?  That's just bizarre.

2

What about the "time off" last year, Doc?  I have heard a lot of complaints but think that it may have been a good thing, giving his arm a year to rest.  Of course, that assumes his velocity is still there.

4

:- )  15 years' worth of birthdays... wonder what the previous oldest TJ comeback was...
And as an aside, since you mentioned him -- did anyone know that Jamie Moyer had TJ surgery so he could make a comeback at 49?  That's just bizarre.

Moyer is Tommy John Squared...
How old was Satchel Paige when he was last effective in the bigs, again?  Anybody remember?  Whoops, this is the internet... guess I could go look it up...

5

To a certain extent Mr Baggins, the frame and motion play into it...
Back in 1996, we got into 9,000 huge flame wars about whether Randy Johnson would retain velocity after his back injury, including and especially with the national pundits ... at the time I thought it was pretty feebleminded to think that the Unit would find himself without velo because of back rehab, but that was the industry consensus...
James Paxton has the body, the super-centrifugal leverage, just the muscle harmony to overpower people ... only thing that would ever diminish that, IMHO, would be wear-and-tear on the elbow or shoulder...
But this is a kid born to bring the heat...

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