Dylan Unsworth's 44:1 CTL in Short-Season

Yahoo 20-team champ Cool Papa Bell sez,

Dr. D, are you aware of the damage Dylan Unsworth did in his first round of pro ball? In 50 innings, he had 44 strikeouts and only ONE walk. And he was only 17. Yet he wasn't mentioned in Churchill's Top 30. How is that possible? I'm sure Churchill would respond by saying that he has underwhelming velocity or whatever, but there are tons and tons of mediocre pitchers of all ages who pass through the minors and they don't put up those kinds of video game numbers. Is there really any way that he isn't a serious prospect? I can't imagine there being 30 players better than him in the M's system alone.

Am hardly an expert on, or even interested in, short-season ball, but ... from what I gather scootin' around the internet James Thomas style...

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1.  No complaints here, if somebody has him on their top 30, although

1a.  He's not in mine

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2.  He'll get his chance this year to hit the radar (figuratively and literally), so no use overreacting if somebody doesn't like him

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3.  He sounds like a high-school type pitcher:  [non-pitcher body, non-pitcher fastball, pretty much just a guy off the street] type

3a.  Yes, I realize that doesn't explain why they signed him from 9,000 miles away

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4.  The 44/1/1 three true outcomes are interesting -- as you note, at least he's not giving up taters...

4a.  But a LOT of guys run gigantic 7:1, 10:1, 15:1 control ratios in that rookie league ... I think six or eight teammates of his were over 7:1 ...

4b.  Notice that two more walks would have produced a 44:3 ratio, so I don't think either of us would sell the 44:1 CTL as being comparable to scoring 60 points a game in NCAA D2 hoops or anything

4c.  Relative to Justin's point about hits yielded -- definitely, but consider the fielding also:  Erik Bedard gave up a bunch of hits when he was in that league in 2010, to teenagers and stuff

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5.  Summary:  first wild-eyed guess at the kid is that he has real nice natural control, Scott Bankhead type, but that he's really just a HS pitcher outfoxing other non-prospects right now

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6.  What do you figure, about a 30% chance that G, J or Jon will inform me that's not Unsworth in the photo

.................

Going back to 3a ... there are any number of high school kids, just in the Seattle area, who can throw 85 mph with nice command, so there has to be SOME reason the Mariners brought Unsworth halfway across the world.

Whatever it was they liked, and we have no idea what that was, they'd have to like it a whole lot more after the 44:1:1 results as a teenager.

.................

Basic SSI crunch is this, FWIW, which is not much:  short-season stats do have to be lumped with high-school and small college stats - hard to make much sense of them.   Weird things can happen there statistically, from prospects and non-prospects.

I noticed that Churchill did give Unsworth his Short Season Man Of The Year award or whatever, qualifying it by saying it's a dead end unless Unsworth grows into a fastball.

In this specific case, my guess would be that it's pretty well on track.

I can't see anybody in HQ's minors book that I'd give up for an Unsworth type.

..................

But I would like to know what the Mariners saw in Unsworth to sign him, because whatever it was, it's amplified after 2010.  Unsworth passed his first filter and passed it huge.

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Or not,

Dr D

Comments

1

But I like Sharkie.  He was considered the best teenage pitcher in South Africa, which may be like being the best teenage basketball player in Iceland, but whatever.  The Ms consider it an untapped market, and have been trying to build a baseball community down there.
I believe the guy who coached him also works for us.
We signed Unsworth after the South Africans thought he was one of the 10 best pitchers in their country - at 16 - because they had him play for them in the WBC.  He just turned 18 a couple of months ago.  There's believing "hey, high school guys turn out all the time, let's bring one in from half-way around the world with a 6 figure signing bonus and see what happens..."
And then there's "He's 16 in a tournament with major league all-stars and HOF players and we like that potential."
Now, we also signed the best SS in South Africa, and he's been a good defender who might never hit (Phillips).  The best players in a baseball-poor country might still not be great, but we wanted a foothold there.
As for Unsworth, he reminds me of Wes Roemer.  Wes struck out 145 guys in his sophomore year of college and walked 7.  No misprint - seven.
He's been hit around a bit in the minor since he was a supplemental pick by the D-backs, and has had to give up dumping the ball into the zone since he's a RHP with no real weapon other than control.
I understand where people are coming from when talking about Unsworth - an 86-88ish FB doesn't blow anyone's skirt up.  Maybe he loses control or movement (a la Roemer or Bobby Livingston) when he throws harder.  Maybe he doesn't have any harder to throw right now.  Maybe he never will.
If he never does, then he's nobody. RH control specialists with minus fastballs aren't exactly stocking the major leagues.  The Ms think he's got more, the South African national team thinks he's got more, and having been 17 during the season and still VERY much on the developmental curve up, I tend to agree with them.  I seem to remember Pineda going from 91 to 96 fairly recently, turning a control specialist into a potential TOR starter.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/10/13/1749110/prospect-review-michae...
Unsworth doesn't have Pineda's frame by any means, but if we capped velocity at 17 we'd have no Pinedas or Strasburgs or many other great pitchers whose velocity didn't climb as much into the stratosphere...but did climb enough to let them be major league pitchers.
Just appreciate Sharkie's control when most kids his age have none and pray for velocity and sharp breaking pitches as he matures through the system.
~G

2

As usual, the comment was more interesting than most of my front-page posts :- )
Low minors pitching, you're pretty unbeatable G.  Too bad we can't get you and Jason into a giant flame war over three or four of 'em.  I'd pull up a folding chair and a bag of popcorn.

3

SoCal streetballer joins up with the Cape Town kid :-)
"Taijuan and Sharkie"
"Taijuan and Sharkie 2: Bring the Heat"
"Taijuan and Sharkie III: Wild Pitch"
"Taijuan and Sharkie Four:  We Meant 'No Pepper'" (direct to video)
"Taijuan and Sharkie: The Next Generation"

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