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Dr, would you now give up Pineda plus for Upton and his RBI's?
I hope all is well!!
M's 7, Rox 2
=== Spec Sez ===
This:
And, maybe not-so-fast on L-Rod -- Drayer says they'll be scouring the waiver wire for a RH bat that would dislodge either him or Langerhans.
What about Arizona? Whatever happened to that Upton deal? I remember it was after-the-fact that we found out Jack was pushing 6 players at SD for AGone... in season...
The M's have done such a tremendous job this March that --- > you start to lament the fact that the M's chose not to go out and get the 100-RBI bat.
With three LH, OBP guys in the MOTO, with a refreshed Figgins / Ichiro up top, with some reinforcements at C and SS .... it would have been nice to have seen what that one Lineup Legitimizer would have done for this club.
Besides Upton, other trade ideas might include Andre Ethier, perhaps Billy Butler / Kila Ka'aihue, Colby Rasmus, Prince Fielder and the other usual suspects, but who knows which players are really available back channel.
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=== L-Rod ===
Was on TV today.
Showed the same swing he did last year on video ... almost absurdly quiet hands, super compact to the ball, got the torque from his hips and butt...
Turned on a heater, like a Bruce Lee 4-inch Punch, and launched it over the CF's head on one hop off the wall.
Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward, not so much. ... L-Rod may be gone shortly, but as of right now, a little voice is asking the mainframe whether he isn't one of the M's four best infielders.
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=== Rich Poythress ===
Was also on TV. The swing looked pretty much like it did on the grainy college vid. McGwire-esque, as in.
Very little footwork. Triggers with a bit of a weight drop. Lets his arms do the work and is very quick to the baseball.
ARGH, he does a little bounce down-and-up with his hands, Bret Boone-ish but about half as much, that I hate. Hope they clean that up.
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Showed kewl HIT skills at the plate.
Facing a gas-throwing Rockie, Poythress quickly got down 0-2. This is in Your One Big Chance, now, at least over the course of three-four days.
Down 0-2, Poythress took half positions and laid off three tough tease pitches, for a 3-2 count. Wowza! That's Dustin Ackley at 270 lbs.
On 3-2, a blistering FB low and away, a real bear pitch .... Poythress lets the ball get deep, reads it carefully, and then SNAPS the barrel of the bat out there and softly lines it... into the right-center gap for a double.
One at-bat. In which Poythress looked the opposite of a Dave Kingman style mistake hitter.
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Next AB, same thing: tough low-away pitch, and he leaned over one-armed, squared it up, and lobbed it into right center. Adrian Beltre, he's not.
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He'll be fun to watch through his next test, AA, and prediction here is that he'll probably drive in another 100 runs. Pro-rated.
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=== Jack Branyan Lite ===
Cust got an absolutely centered fastball, turned on it quickly, without much load, and hit it deep to center.
Sky-high. The CF stood at the fence, grew a beard waiting, jumped, and didn't quite get it. Half a row deep, if there'd been rows.
Man, I miss Russ Branyan.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
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Giving up Pineda cretes a hole to fix a hole...not sure it helps us in the short term or the long term. However, I would love to acquire a righty thumper to put between Cust and Smoak and take the pressuree off of Bradley and Figgins and I'd give up any combination of interesting commodities that does not include Ackley or Pineda to do it.
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No way do I give up six years of club-controls on Michael Pineda for anything short of a King Albert deal, since that would give us two Kings...
Some might say that without Ack! or Carnage, you can't get a trade done, but we remember that the Lee trade required nobody who was really established above A+ ball ... such is the nature of ML bidness... all 30 teams have 15, 20, 30 prospects of considerable value to other teams...
However, when you have a glittery ML-ready gem of Pineda's order of magnitude, it can make the other guys dig their heels in, in hopes of you softening... hope that's not the case with the M's right now, because if so, they're wise not to loosen their grip on Michael Pineda...
If you *were* going to deal Pineda, you'd just let him throw two dazzlers in the bigs, and then you could get virtually any short-timer ML vet you wanted; you could set your sights far above Upton IMHO...
Your thoughts Jeff?
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Doc, I realize the potential arm problems for young pitchers that everyone harped on calling to trade Pineda for Upton. But pitching is still required to win. I would not trade a potential stud arm in today's market with so much club control. Logic for me is that the M's farm system finally has home grown bats. That is a strength. I agree with Ghost, why create a hole that might be harder to replace. Some good arms in farm but further away.
And with regard to Upton, I know he can hit both ways, etc. He also plays in desert air. I would fear he might have been Safecoed ala Beltre.
It would be nice to see these kids move through the system to form a good nucleus! Not against upgrades but not at the cost of a starting arm. See last year's World Series!
Good articles...thanks! Busy with degree and baseball, so this is relaxing!
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"you could set your sights far above Upton"
Who would that be? Upton's 23 years old, 3 consecutive years of .800 OPS at the MLB level, a well above average defensive RF by most metrics, 20 SB speed, signed through 2015.
In terms of MLB-ready young players who are playing today, Upton would seem to be as high as you can aim.
You could make a case for Longoria or Zimmerman, though I question if either player has the power everyone's expecting and they're obviously not going anywhere.
Braun might be the one player I definitely take over Upton. Tulowitzki is interesting, but the extra 11 years on his contract (including several $20 mil years) have to look scary with his injury history. Upton's position, speed, and defense push him over all of the 35 HR-ish 1B's. The position is the only thing that would push Hanley over Upton, and most feel he is not a legitimate defensive SS.
I think I might even take Upton's age 23-27 seasons at an average of $9.9 mil per year over needing to sign a 31 year old Pujols to a $25+ mil contract for at least seven years.
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Trying to guess and figure out who and what. Good points Justin. I wouldn't touch Hanley in comparsion to Tulo. One is a John Wayne leader and the other a potential head case. Good points of signing Pujols after 31. Will there be decline? He is truly great but at 25 million? Ask the Rangers about that one. A great first baseman with no bullpen, etc makes for a long season.
Have to see how some of these young bats play out this year. I watch Tulo so am prejudiced but his bat really improved last year and he is a gold glover at a premium position.
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... but it's interesting to hear you so sky-high on him. Maybe I need to revisit.
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My complaints are in the context of Upton vs (say) Adrian Gonzalez, not in the context of Upton vs Michael Saunders or Matt Tuiasosopo...
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1. BJ Upton had a super early HOF season and then has followed up terribly, in Ruben Sierra fashion. I fret about Justin Upton having a lousy trajectory on his career arc.
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2. Another potential crash involves the Eric Davis path to 110 games a year. Both are super tightly-strung track type athletes. Justin Upton's already got a labrum at age 23.
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3. Upton doesn't have the EYE that greatly raises my comfort level when you're talking 9 digits on a player's contract. He's been at 0.40 since he hit the majors.
I'd have been comfortable talking Pineda for Adrian Gonzalez if he agreed to a contract extension.
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4. And you've got to negotiate a deal with him the same week you trade for him, right? It's not like he's signed below market, like Felix is.
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4. Neither is Upton a position-scarcity guy you can easily fill in the Rich Poythresses around. Cf. Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez, Longoria, Robison Cano etc.
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Upton is certainly going to be a Jay Buhner-level player, but there are guys like Heyward, Zimmerman, Votto, Hanley Ramirez, Longoria, Jay Bruce, and Ryan Braun I'd be far more comfortable targeting in a Pineda deal.
Still, I'd cheerfully acknowledge the argument involved, if somebody thought Upton were going to the HOF.
And, of course, it's not like you're going to trade for a .300/.400/.500 shortstop who is signed below market value, so yeah. And Upton's the one who's available, not Evan Longoria.
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I'm extremely skeptical of B.J., it's pretty clear his bat tool was overrated; Justin OTOH has already put up the results. He's only six months older than Dustin Ackley and already has three straight years of .800 OPS in the majors.
You just completed the 20-team mixed league draft. There's loads of power hitting 1B's out there. A .280, 35 HR, 100 RBI line from Adrian Gonzalez doesn't really compete. Move Upton to the AL and he's probably already in the top 3 AL RF's, with arguments for #1. Haven't followed Upton too closely, but I believe the assumption is that he's a well above average defensive RF and would end up in CF on a new team.
Not really sure where Bruce compares favorably to Upton. Heyward's interesting, but if you're dealing a Pineda you want to be banking on Major League results not Minor League projection.
Way too early to be talking about HOF level performance from Upton, but he's one out of maybe 3-5 under-27 position players who've shown all five tools in the majors.
He's got $49.5 mil left on his contract through 2015 (average of $9.9 mil per year). Not a minimum salary by any means, but you're getting three years of established MLB results which you're not going to have with a minimum salary player.
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Say Pineda had been traded for Upton or another bat, would you start to lean towards Cole rather than Rendon?
Justin, you give good reasons for Upton. You can tell me I told you so in Sept but I would have a hard time pulling the trigger on giving up Pineda, Franklin, etc for him in a package. Would you make that trade?
It would be nice to watch Rendon with other potential young infielders. To dream.......
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I wouldn't deal multiple top 50 prospects for any player, Upton included. I'd deal Pineda and some B-level prospects for Upton, and he might not be the minimum for that type of deal.
I think you have to draft the best player available regardless of the current players/prospects in the organization.
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Well said Justin. I totally agree but also as a fan...will tend to have favorites....
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... also Cameron did a nice job on his trade value list and, though it's a year old and the philosophies might differ, still it's a real good quick-scan list.
You could actually make the case that Upton is right up near the very top.
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Maybe there's a distinction between his and B.J.'s bat, and the age thing is well taken in ref to Ackley.
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You could put him either in CF, or he'd be so good in a corner with his speed, that D becomes the plus that raises my comfort level.
OK, you talked me into it, roto-style. Pineda for Upton back on for BABVA.
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Actually think Heyward is becoming very slightly overrated. Great player due to OBP and defense, but that is a VERY high GB-rate for someone projected to slug .500.
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"Maybe there's a distinction between his and B.J.'s bat, and the age thing is well taken in ref to Ackley."
Yeah, I think the D'Rays were hoping beyond hope that B.J. could be a major league SS and basically ruined his hitting development trying to achieve something that wasn't to be. The D'Backs saw the train wreck in Tampa Bay and were saved from making the same mistake with Justin.
I will admit I have more concerns with Justin that most players - he did end last season with an injury, his brother was a dramatically different hitter after his mid-season 2007 injury, and the D'Backs did shop him this offseason.
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it's not like somebody's going to trade you the 23-year-old George Brett signed for 10 years at $5M a year.
Upton may be about as good an available target as is out there. Wonder if the holdup would be the health questions.