I'd keep Ackley down for the first 2 months. Kennedy is fine for now. Kennedy, Ryan and Jack Wilson can put a patch on the SS/2B position for 8 weeks.
Watching Ackley play 2B in Arizona, though, he looks like his instincts are coming around just fine. I didn't see him turn any crazy double plays, but for the time he was in the game his fielding, base coverage, reaction times, etc were all terrific. Smoak is good with a glove at 1B too, so that'll help - he's pretty agile for a big guy.
Honestly I let Ackley go down to save that extra year, the arb funds, and to let him get a good head of steam up heading into the bigs.
Pineda might be up sooner. He could very well break camp with the team, and I'd have no problem with that. I don't expect the Mariners to wait until June for him, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him take a couple of starts in Tacoma waiting for the 3 weeks to pass to get his extra year.
Pitchers aren't hitters. It's very hard to plan for 6-7 years down the line. There are only so many bullets in the gun, so Pineda might as well use them in the bigs.
But as cost-conscious as the Ms are, I'd expect Pineda to be sent down for at least a little bit. If he isn't, that would be very interesting to me.
~G
Q. OK, so you have to play tough in April. You can't do that without Pineda and Bedard?
A. Wedge is here, the plastic vampire fangs and satin-lined cape, because the Mariners are serious about playing to win in 2011.
We fans are always whining about coddling the players. Hey, why should Chone Figgins have to hit 2nd? If 9th helps the club, why can't he accept it?
Real MLB teams can't ask players to give up comfort zones, if the entire franchise is a loser.
The Mariners want to ask some players to accept roles. It means asking certain players to get on board and show good attitudes when they get pinch-hit for. It means asking guys to accept coaching.
...........
There isn't any way to ask 25 men to leave their comfort zones because you are going to win and then --- > cut the best pitcher in camp. The guy they could win with?! Hey, they ask us to bust our butts and then look what they do to us!
It's a top-down message. If the general isn't going to sacrifice, there isn't a way in the world he can give a pre-landing pep talk without the grunts laughing at him.
Look, Jack Zduriencik is trying to get this franchise moving in the right direction. April 2011 is a pivot for that, a fulcrum point.
If he's going to demand his players fight with bare knuckles, he can't take away their tinfoil.
That tinfoil being Michael Pineda and Erik Bedard.
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Q. Is Michael Pineda really that good? Ballplayers want a rookie out there with them?
A. In every sports contest, princess, there's a bully and a customer.
When Tim Lincecum came out to throw in spring training as a rookie, the rest of the Giants came out of the clubhouse to watch.
Michael Pineda is that kind of pitcher. We been tryin' to tell yer.
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Q. Then why not bring Dustin Ackley up too?
A. The concept is "plausible deniability." B'lee dat.
The Seattle Mariners might be a little better with Dustin Ackley in the Opening Day lineup -- maybe a lot better.
But it is quite possible that Ackley needs to get his sea legs under him a bit at 2B ... that he needs to get on a AAA roll and consolidate some. Justin Smoak needed a couple of cuts at it and the same might be true of Ackley.
The ballplayers aren't going to be sitting there agreeing with each other, "Hey, if Ackley were here we'd have these guys by the ears this series." Ackley doesn't have 10% the presence, right now, that Pineda does.
..........
If Dr. D were GM, he'd send Ackley down too. And that's saying a lot.
In that case, the 2017 reward weighs heavily. Because Ackley's impact on the 2011 season is far more nebulous.
You can argue that Ackley won't help the 2011 Mariners much. You cannot argue that about Michael Pineda. That's why Pineda's up and Ackley ain't.
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Q. What if Ackley hit .375 in April and did make the roster?
A. It would mean that these arguments weigh more heavily, for GM's, even than we realized they did.
Which would be really cool.
I don't like watching sports contests unless they are full-throated fights to the death. I mean, what's the point?
The more hard core the fight, the better I like it. It's up to the GM to create that hard core fight.
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Comments
Not real optimistic about the M's seriously contending this year; if they do, it won't be because Pineda/Ackley carried them there on their own. Send the top prospects down for a couple months to save the service years for 'better days', then you can evaluate if they can be promoted either due to blowing past AAA competition or a need at the MLB level. It's too late to decide to go 'all-in' on 2011. The A/A+ premium talents are a rariety, you need to be smart with the ones you're lucky enough to have.
Probably strongly in the minority on this one, but count me in the camp that says if Pineda is one of your top 5 pitchers and Ackley is your best bet at 2b then you put them on your opening day roster. Service time be damned.
I understand the sentiment that runs pervasively around these parts that goes something like "2011 is a lost cause, we handicap 2017 for two weeks/months of Pineda/Ackley." And I wholeheartedly agree that in a vacuum the most intelligent move would be to hold out each for 10 days and assuredly prevent them from getting that extra year of service time.
However the 2011 season isn't going to be played in a vacuum. It's not chess, nor is it a matter of game theory maximization. Why? Because each of the pieces on the field are human; they have emotions, feelings, confidence issues, etc.
Jack Z owes it to the other 23 players on the team, the coaching staff, the fans, to put forth the best option we have to win in 2011. Count me a believer in the fact that best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. The teams that are going to be winning in 2017? The teams that the best free agents want to come play for? The teams that have the attitude and expectancy necessary to compete with confidence? The teams with an increased budget due to high ratings, TV contracts, and playoff monies? The odds are that they will be those same teams that win today. The Tampa Bay Rays of last year, the money ball A's of yesteryear are the exceptions, not the rule.
Play for today, play to win, play with confidence, and we'll be in a much better position to win 6 years from now than if we hold back a couple stars for service time reasons.
$0.02.
- Ben.
coudl not agree more with this sentiment.
When you say his fielding was 'terrific' ... you think he could play a -7 UZR to +7 UZR second base this year?
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I agree, with The Boras Factor, it is VERY tough to blow off the 7th year with Ackley. Much preferable to run a Buster Posey.
But! Even that's not absolute. If a major league GM thinks that a Dustin Ackley starts the year as one of his best ballplayers, as is, he's liable to go with him.
Ackley has made some noises about wanting to be allowed to play for a spot this March. Fairness enters into it.
... We're all leaning to the idea of saving his 7th year.
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With Pineda: how much chance do you allow for the scenario in which he throws 1,000 innings the next six years and is healthy for year 7? Maybe 10%?
Ben runs down the 1B line, I scamper over from the mound, and our feet hit the bag simultaneously. Now I've seen everything :- )
Good stuff Ben -
Yer last paragraph especially: winning later, starts with playing to win now...
That's some good persuasion. Who cares about 2017? You could be dead, the world could end, or you could be rooting for some other team by that point. Not to mention that any one player could end his playing career at any time.
More to the point, it's not feasible to manage the 2012 season, much less the 2017 season...
There are times when a ballclub is glad that it held a player back a few months, no doubts there, but for THIS franchise especially, sufficient unto today is the evil thereof...
It has its hands more than full, even if --- > it gives today its best effort, much less if it's pulling its punches...
...on a couple of days, but I don't see how he's any worse than Lopez out there, and he should have more range (Ackley's quick). WAY faster on the bases, but even on hustling to make bouncing plays in the hole. He's looking far more sure of himself even on just backing plays up or trusting his instincts. I think he'll make it as a 2B. He looks "right" out there. Cool as a cucumber.
It was a short trip to the desert, but it was rewarding. :) Ackley and Smoak are the Real Deal. Now, I got there just in time for Smoak to finally heat up and start crushing the ball, but his power swing is a thing of beauty. Ackley went fishing a couple of times and still hit triples, but most of the time his bat just stayed on his shoulder as balls were called. Between the two of them and Cust we'll finally get some OBP back in this joint, and hopefully Figgins will follow suit.
If they say they want him to work on D and send him down...it'll be a smokescreen. And that's a very good thing.
And I understand nobody cares about 2017 right now, but when you GET to 2016-2017 and you're talking about breaking up Smoak/Ackley/Pineda instead of gearing up for one more run at a title with them, it matters.
I want a dynasty, and to get one you preserve all the years you can on your core players, draft like Nostradamus, and pray for health. Right now Felix, Smoak, Ackley and Pineda are core players. We need a couple more (one should be coming in the draft). If the latter 3 don't work out, then we have no dynasty, Zduriencik's lookin' for a job and we're doing this all over again.
Right now we're two levels deep. First wave = Saunders/Smoak/Pineda/Lueke/Moore/Ackley. There's no good reason other than his head for Moore to fail. Saunders has a couple other reasons, and I think he will fail to be the power hitter we want right now. Pineda and Lueke only have health standing in their way, IMO. And there isn't anything in the way of Smoak and Ackley.
Next wave is Franklin/Chavez/Tenbrink/Paxton/#2 draft pick (we'll call him Rendon)/Poythress/Choi. I expect a coupla pitchers to show up in there as well, and you never know if Morla or the like will come through, but those are the guys I'd be drawing straws from to start with.
Third wave is being stocked in the low minors and won't matter until after we get through 2016, really.
Franklin is taking at-bats with AA right now, and was in the major league dugout yesterday when I was there. Choi is batting in high-A, and wearing catcher's gear. Tenbrink is playing 3rd base in camp right now at AAA. Poythress was hitting with AAA, though I still think he's getting demoted to AA before assignments are given.
You want those guys to hit the bigs properly spaced from the arb years you're paying to Smoak, Ackley and Pineda. If all your kids break in at the same time, then all their raises come due together and they send you rocketing to the poor house.
I don't want all of them to come due together. I'd rather space Ackley out a year as far as arb raises go than have to give up Lueke in a couple of years because I need his money to pay Ackley.
Maybe we wouldn't do that. I still remember the team that gave away Carlos Guillen for N O T H I N G rather than pay him one red cent to backup Aurilia. Maybe that was because he was a bad influence on Freddy, as was intimated at the time. Maybe we were just holding to the budget.
The fewer times I have to hear the word "budget" as we build this thing into a perennial contender, the better - but I think it starts by prepping the budget for those contending years NOW.
~G
How many starts does Pineda make in the first two months? 10? The M's have three off days in three weeks from late April to mid-May; might not even use a 5th starter during that time. Pineda has 60 career IP at AAA with very mixed results; there's no way he'd be upset if he was sent back down. Don't see a reason to trade 30+ starts for 8-12 starts, especially in a year when there's not a real serious bid at a championship.