M's 0, Brew 0 going into the 6th

The Brewers looking at Michael Pineda for the second time in a week.  Same guys in the lineup, even.

Nine up, nine down, 33% of Pineda's pitches swung on and missed.  Together with last week's 16-for-63 .... that's 22-for-81, a 27% SW% he's rollin' on.  Felix' percentage being a skosh under 10.  

As we've been advised, Pineda's a solid contributor but nothing exciting.  Or, as others have been advised, since he has no ML-caliber secondary stuff, he can't put hitters away.

We know, we know, it's so unlike us here at SSI, to chortle when the dice come up 7 ... but you know what they say.  Be Advised.  Be Very Advised.

.........

Justin's 20-team Head-to-Head points league is comprised mostly of national players, few from Seattle ... Using the tried-and-true $9 Pitching Staff stratagem, BABVA took hitters in the first 12, 14 rounds and then nabbed Bedard and Pineda around round 14-15 or something... hope they can bail us out :- )

Vargas went undrafted, a lefty in Safeco.  Hm.

..........

In the first 18 pitches, Pineda threw ALL strikes to 8 of 9 batters ... 14 strikes and 4 balls, all to Fielder! ... and the Brewers were swinging at all the first pitches.

They're out on those first pitches, too, and after three innings, Pineda was on pace for a 54-pitch shutout... (edit to note, GameDay might have been bubbling, spitting and smoking slightly, but the blizzard of strikes had the Brew just as snowed in...)

.............

FOURTH INNING:  1st-pitch strike to Weeks, he's swinging, flies out.  Completely ridiculous the % of strikes, but Dave Neihaus would be swooning in ecstasy.  He loved 90-pitch games.

Carlos Gomez goes down 1-2-3, with two more swinging strikes.

Mark Kotsay, first-pitch swinging (!), grounds a single off Jack Wilson's glove for the Brew's first "hit" ... wonder how long till Kennedy replaces him...

Fielder walks - again on 4 pitches!   13 hitters, 19 strikes, 8 balls, every called ball to Prince Fielder?!

Pineda gets Betancourt on ... ummm .... a first-pitch ball in play .... oh hey!  A single to RF, with Langerhans throwing Kotsay out at home.  Langerhans has done everything he's needed to do and then double that and then triple that up again.

.........

Pineda keeps this Iron Mike pitch location up, he's going to run a season like that one where Carlos Silva walked 9 batters... that's the only other season I remember whether the pitcher just figured, hey, why throw four pitches in an AB...

The other guys are going to have to hit their way on, that's for sure.

.

FIFTH INNING:  Lefty Boggs up against Carnage:

pitches and pop them up on the infield.

............

After 5 full innings, Pineda has thrown all of 33 pitches, ten of them (30%) swinging strikes.

Slap me silly.  Good thing the Brew got a look last week.

.

SIXTH INNING:  A first-pitch flyout, then two more 3-pitch punchouts.  Seven pitches, 5 swinging strikes.

15 more swings and misses.

*Edit to add, Baker gives 77 pitches -- Perhaps GameDay was listing first-pitch outs where several pitches were used.  In that case it would be interesting to know how many more SW% Pineda got in the truncated AB's.

In any case, of course, Pineda's getting 2x, 3x the swings and misses that a Tim Lincecum gets.  Just a few games, of course, but those games are giving baseball all the seismo's it should need.

.

Drive home safely,

Dr D

Comments

1

The slider to opposite handed hitter certainly isn't always a problem.  Steve Carlton's out pitch versus RH batters was a slider aimed at the right shoe top.  But I can't think of any right handed pitchers that used the same approach versus lefthanded batters.  Not trying to be dogmatic here, just can't think of the counter example to the slider platoon split for a right handed pitcher.

2

Kerry Wood 1997, Dwight Gooden (yakker shaped like Pineda's), Josh Beckett, Bert Blyleven, J.R. Richard, Erik Hanson, Tom Gordon, the career leaderboard littered with 'em...  Schilling actually used pretty much one pitch for about five years... as did Colon for a couple years...
Nowadays A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Chad Billingsley, and Jeremy Bonderman show on Fangraphs as RHP's with only two pitches...
Oddly enough, Pineda will NOT show on Fangraphs as a 2-pitch guy, though IMHO he'd be a classic example of one... wonder how many there are like that who tossed only the occasional change for show...
.........
Pineda's nominal "slider" is actually an 83 mph curve that snaps off 12-to-6; in my day we'd have called it a power overhand curve...  wish somebody would tell me what counts as curve and slider these days... :- )
.........
Pineda has a change, though.  He just shouldn't use it, IMHO, until its developed to the point where it can compete with his other stuff...

3

Kerry Wood seems like a good example, if I remember the shape of the break correctly.  I think a 12-6 break, independent of the name, doesn't have a huge platoon split.  Carlton and Randy had an enormous amount of sideways break and I was trying to think of RH pitchers with similar movement on there breaking ball that also had similar success throwing it to opposite handed batters.
Within this clarification, someone like Dwight Gooden doesn't fit the mold or Eric Hanson.

4

A two-pitch righty with a tilted slider would be considerably more improbable... Very true that the ball is breaking into the lefty's wheelhouse, whereas down-in is not a RH's wheelhouse... the distinction is very well taken Dr. K...
Ya, Kerry Wood's slider had the hard Jeff Nelson 2-plane tilt into LH.  His, David Cone's, Jeff Weaver's, and Jeff Nelson's, are what I think of when I think "slider."
Didn't matter in Wood's sensational year, because both pitches were just so razor-sharp.
Oh, on the earlier list, forgot the prototype... Nolan Ryan...
................
Honestly don't remember another RH with exactly Pineda's located-94 and tight-spin, power 12-6.  Cannot think of one to save me life.
The rookie Jered Weaver had plus command on the FB and a real sharp 2-plane slider.  Both were about -4 mph to Pineda's, and Pineda's "slider" has a different shape, natch.
..............
A good bud from the (non-local) media tells us that we're having way too much fun on Pineda :- ) but the combo of the [94 mph with command] is a real novelty for a rook.  This is probably the first such I've seen with the M's since 1977.
IMHO he wouldn't even need the wipeout yakker.

5
Taro's picture

Too bad you're not landing him in our AL-only league now, Doc. :-)
Considering Safeco and the Ms D, he'll probably go in the late end of #10-#15 SP now.

6

Suddenly he realizes what he's done..... :- O
..........
Where's Bedard on your AL SP list?
............
Hey, funny thing Champ, based on your advice I had to get Ortiz into the lineup.  So dealt Dunn + a good SP for Felix...
Now, with my first 14 picks being hitters, my roto season hangs on:  1 Felix 2 Bedard 3 Pineda.
How's that fer bleedin' the blue and teal :- )

7
Taro's picture

Now I wish I had turned trades off in our AL-league Doc. ;-)
Which SP? Unless its a Weaver/Price level guy, I love the move.
Felix is an super-elite chess piece even considering some mild regression. In a 20-team mixed league, chances are you won't miss that SP. The RL on the waivers will work just fine.

10

When are you going to put some effort into your team in the AL-only league?
I was expecting the AL-only league to be the cutthroat and the excuses about NL familiarity and time constraints to start flying in the 20-team league by the third week of the season.
Instead, you've got one of the best teams in the mixed league, while your AL-only team features.....
-A combined *negative* 19.84 points from your active pitchers in 2011 (including only one P in the positives)
-an empty RP spot despite a cumulative points scoring system
-Ortiz on the bench, Youkilis in the DH spot (despite 3B eligibility), Izturis at 3B (despite 2B eligibility), and a DL'ed Nishioka starting at 2B
Taro's trading his team away and losing top picks to retirement. Dr. D's starting injured players over David Ortiz.
We haven't even started the matchups yet, and I'm already starting to worry that my autopicked team's stroll to the championships won't be entertaining!

11
Taro's picture

lol
The Manny retirement burns.. I was hoping for a 400+ point season from him. Really bad timing on the trade with Sandy in hindsight. Oh well, Walden to closer and Britton make up for it (although Britton is now yours Justin).
And ya Doc, time to toss Nishioka on the DL and add an active RP to your roster. :-)

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