Blengino's Analysis of Edgar

After reading Doc's post, I was reminded of an interview that I vaguely recalled in which Shannon Drayer discussed Edgar's Hall of Fame credentials with Z's numbers guy Tony Blengino.  I was able to track it down, and I'll import it here because it is:

1. Revealing about Edgar's value

2. Even more revealing about how Blengino uses his numbers to evaluate players

3. Insightful as to how the club might evaluate Anthony Rendon's potential value

 

The text that is not in quotes is Drayer.  The quotes are Blengino.  Highlighting is mine.

 

There are plenty of good arguments for Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame and there seems to be a shift in tide with more taking a closer look at these arguments. The numbers are there it is just that some of the numbers are unfamiliar. It is not just batting average, homeruns and hits that define a career. As we learn more about the numbers we learn more about the impact certain players had when they played.

The Mariners under Jack Zduriencik utilize what seems to be a healthy mix of traditional scouting and statistical analysis and evaluation of players. Zduriencik's right hand man when it comes to all things numbers is Tony Blengino who recently sat down with us on the Hot Stove League Show and discussed the career of Edgar Martinez and if his contribution is worthy of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Blengino fully understands the issue of position and mostly agrees with those who are hesitant to vote some in because of it but said there should be exceptions.

"I would start out by saying that if Mariano Rivera is going to the Hall of Fame Edgar Martinez should be in the Hall of Fame. I don't think there should be a lot of designated hitters in the Hall of Fame. I don't think there should be a lot of relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame, they pitch a fraction of the innings the starters do and the save to me is a very overrated statistic. DH's, they don't play the field and I get it but
you have got to take the best DH, by light years, and put him in the Hall of Fame."

When it comes to the numbers he says voters are not looking at the complete picture.

"One of the problems you run into with Hall of Fame voting is people look at the counting stats, how many homeruns a guy had, how many hits a guy had, and they don't count the outs he had. Edgar Martinez did not make outs."

Blengino keeps a data base containing stats from every season since 1901 and along with other research he sorts performance relative to the league. Where Edgar fits in, you might be surprised.

"When you match up the best hitters of all time Edgar is on a very short list not just in his quality but in quantity of value he added above the league average. His career was a lot shorter than a lot of people who are in the Hall of Fame but there are players who played five and six more years that he has more offensive value added over the course of the career. It is the on base component he added, as much on base value over his career in twelve qualifying seasons as Pete Rose did in twenty-two and Pete Rose is an all time on base guy, and Edgar had the power to go along with it!"

In twelve years Edgar Martinez had as much on base value as Pete Rose did playing ten more years. Make no mistake, Edgar was an impact offensive player. He was not beating out infield singles. This production Blengino is talking about is not a yearly average, it is not adjusted for career length. It is cumulative. Edgar simply was able to do more, dramatically more, in a shorter amount of time than others in the Hall of Fame. Should he be penalized for that?

If you take away questions about the position and the years played and look at the accomplishment and the raw numbers what you have in front of you according to Blengino is one of the best hitters in the history of baseball.

"In my book he is one of the twenty-five best hitters who's ever played the game and all of the other guys on that list are in the Hall of Fame, and the vast majority of them were first ballot. For me he is an absolute first ballot slam dunk."

Despite his analysis Blengino does not believe Martinez will get in on the first ballot as this process involves voters and not a computer. He is optimistic it will happen soon however as all of baseball becomes more educated in the numbers side of the game.

 

Obviously, that mindset factors into how they value Ackley (and Smoak and Cust etc.) and how they will evaluate Rendon:  They value guys who "don't make outs."

Comments

1

A poster child for the "Did not make outs" crowd (well, a non-crowd, actually):  John Olerud
If you get on base 38% of the time (+) and whack out 40 doubles a year then you're a hell of an offensive player.  Edgar, Olerud.......... Ackley, Smoak (I think). 

2
RockiesJeff's picture

Excellent article. Thanks! I loved to watch him swing the bat.

3

Right to the point Spec.
Blengino doesn't use the gobbledegook "RC/27" for his audience there, but obviously he (and James, and incidentally I) go back to that idea most fundamentally.
A team of nine Edgars would have scored 8.3 runs -- for his career.  His peak was 10-11 runs a game, and he maintained that for 6-7 years.
That's PUJOLS production from 1995-2001.  Albert was at 8.7 RC/27 last year, though career he's at 9.8.

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