Pineda: Counting Up the WAR

Q.  Why does Jack Zduriencik not "realize" that [32 starts in 2017] are worth more than [three starts right now]?  

Did Milton Bradley drop him on his head?  Or is he in that much of a panic over his job?

A.  When somebody smarter than you does something you can't begin to comprehend, check your pockets.

It is a sure sign that there is something you don't get.  It is a guarantee that there are light bulbs you have off.

Have the humility to learn something, and you won't be so stupid next time.  We mean it in a good way.

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Q.  Is it possible that Jack Zduriencik has not noticed the mathematics of 3 vs 32 starts?

A.  Ahem:

  • As a major league GM, service time issues are part of the fabric of his 9-to-5.
  • Zduriencik has a staff of advisors who talk to him about stuff like this.  This staff includes Tom Tango.
  • Zduriencik reads the papers.  He has heard what you good buddies have said about it.
  • ....... and Zduriencik has commented on this issue with respect to Michael Pineda.

No.  Zduriencik knows that he is trading a theoretical 2017 for a tiny fraction of 2011.

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Q.  Perhaps Zduriencik thinks that 5 starts in 2011 might give him more WAR than the 32 in 2017, after Pineda's injured?

A.  No.  Pineda throws two good years, he'll be signed for those years at a big salary.

Zduriencik is more aware than you are what that 2017 is worth.

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Q.  Perhaps Zduriencik is selling out a future GM's resources to feather his own 2011 nest?

A.  No again.  See Ackley, Dustin.

I've never seen a GM who lacked the integrity to protect his franchise's future -- at least to a greater extent than fans thought he was doing.

Pat Gillick is the ultimate Win-Now GM.  But in his last two years here, when he was fully aware that he was about to bail, he refused to trade the Mariners' prospects.  Especially Felix Hernandez, who he made an untouchable.

Zduriencik is under pressure, but he's got integrity.  That factors in.

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Q.  Is there any way that the math can work out, starting Pineda in the rotation in 2011?

A.  There is no way in a Strat-O-Matic keeper league, no.

If this were Strat-O-Matic, keeper through 2020, then Jack Zduriencik would do the same thing you would.  He'd sacrifice six or eight starts now, to get the (possible) 32 later. 

Folks arguing about the math are completely missing the point.  

Slice the pizza 9,000 different ways:  you'll still get the same thing at 9,000 different ends.  There is no way you get a long-term WAR gain by bringing up Pineda now.

There are exactly 30 major league GM's who will correct these neo-sabes on their logic, but the math warriors intrepidly carry on, trying to pound the square WAR peg into the round W/L hole of the major league GM's real-world pressures.

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