Going into 2003, the 21-year-old Dontrelle Willis had no prior major league experience, but he went 14-6, 3.30 with a 127 ERA+ and won the ROY over all the hitters. I think the Marlins did good that year. Check me on that.
Willis combined with Josh Beckett, as we hope Michael Pineda will combine with Felix Hernandez, and the Beckett/Willis show carried a mediocre offense (a 97 OPS+) all the way to a World Series championship.
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Spec with another great post, Pineda Peer Group Rookie Comparison, demonstrating that even HOF-class rookies frequently have considerable learning curves.
This is especially helpful when it comes to the M's blog-o-sphere fretting that Senor Pineda might not be able to crush LEFT hand hitters in April 2010.
Felix 2006: .281/.340/.479 vs LHB.
That was in Safeco. I don't imagine that anybody believes that Felix should have been in AAA in 2006; lefty batters weren't going to challenge him there.
If the idea is, "Leave Pineda down until he can throw shutouts in his first month as a major leaguer," then Spec's post puts "paid" to that. Many, perhaps most, of the greats had things to learn as rookie starters.
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=== Hope Springs Eternal, Dept. ===
But just because Barry Bonds hit .218* as a rookie, doesn't mean it's not possible for Fred Lynn, Ichiro and Co. to win MVP's in their first years.
Is it possible for a rookie SP to rock and roll?
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Kerry Wood 1998, with 'only' a 129 ERA+, but 233 strikeouts in 166 IP, put up one of the most sensational pitching performances of all time.
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Tim Lincecum 2008, posted a 169 ERA+ and practically revolutionized baseball in SF. (The half season before, he did have a FIP of 3.63, but he was a revelation for the G'ints then too.)
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Strasburg 2010, had an xFIP of 2.15... there was absolutely no learning needed at that level of magnitude. Here it is, hit it (actually, don't hit it).
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J.A. Happ in 2009 had an ERA+ of 144. With a Pauley-esque pitch mix, he's not making the HOF, but ... it illustrates the surprise factor that can work in a rookie SP's favor.
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Tommy Hanson in 2009 did approximately the same thing in Atlanta: 11-4, with a 143 ERA+. Here's a guy with considerably more impressive stuff than Happ, but certainly no Pineda...
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You can roll through the ROY voting and find several rookie SP's every year who run 140 ERA+ or something.
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Justin Verlander, in 2006, had 'only' a 126 ERA+ but that was good for a 17-9, 3.63 record and the ROY. If Pineda ran a 126 ERA+, he'd be in the top 10 among ERA qualifiers and would be a World Series-caliber #3 starter.
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We don't suppose we have to go to the historic rookie splashes like Dwight Gooden - 137 ERA+ as rookie, 227 ERA+ the year after.
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=== Exec Sum Dept. ===
As a general rule, even the Seavers, Clemens and Felixes do need 20, 30, 40 starts to jell as world-beaters. They're TOR starters as rookies, but not HOF until they've got six months under their belts.
SSI does NOT see Pineda as a Seaver-, Clemens- category starter - more in the Willis, perhaps Verlander category if everything breaks right.
Sometimes the historical almanacs almost see it as more likely for a Dontrelle Willis to splash big, than for a HOF pitcher to splash big. The aircraft-carrier, 300-win types have Rembrandt games, and it takes some time for them to polish...
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But, good for fans to accept "good" and cross their fingers for "splash."
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Jeff, thanks for the work. Been so busy the last two months but really enjoyed skimming your words on Pineda. There have been many theories on his potentials the last three years. Now to watch it become realized in real time. Just had to thank you for all the work you put into this!
I think you are pretty optimistic on Pineda.
Dontrell Willis had a goofy delivery that gave the league fits. Verlander would routinely hit triple digits on the radar gun. Both of these pitchers had something that opposing hitters weren't used to seeing and had considerable success as a result. Pineda pitches like a closer and I think he'll get worked the third time through the order. Did I mention we have a manager who is known for leaving in his starter for an inning too long? I think you need to use Pineda because he is one of your best 5 starters and the odds that he is healthy 6 years from now are slim so use him while you have him. But I reject the notion that he is a very special player and am penciling him to be around league average next year (which obviously has value).
I tend to agree with coug here...Pineda reminds me of Soriano...who wasn't a particularly special starter because he could get booked the second or third time through the order. Now...Pineda has a much better slider than Soriano had...but the slider is hard on the arm and Pineda has never pitched big innings over a long season...I think he'll fatigue easily compared to the aces on the chart, Doc...and I think it will wind up making him a solid, but non-ace-level contributor.
I don't think Jeff was speaking of a goofy delivery or 100mph as comparsions because level of success as either or both of those guarantee of nothing in the Majors. Am I wrong to say that he had suggested Pineda's success coming from good, consistent pitches?Maybe Pineda's arm falls off this year, maybe he gains strength and suprises everyone. Every pitcher is one throw away from problems and every pitcher is different, even when they appear to be similar. Soriano had only pitched a short time before TJ (converted outfielder). Agree about the slider but depends on how it is thrown, how often and the pitchers conditioning and gentics. Plus, remember how everyone was critical of Bedard's fatigue and injurous arm. Now coming back, he is a hero. I don't hear people jettisoning him to the bullpen?
I didn't think Doc was directly comparing D-Train to Pineda (I wouldn't want that comparison to be right anyway...he didn't last)...I think coug's point is that all of the guys that are on the comp list had something special that made them unique enough that they had an immediate big league impact...what's Pineda's special thing that batters have to get used to? It's not pinpoint command...he's wild in the zone IMHO...his command is no better than, say, Jarrod Washburn's. It's not a nasty secondary pitch no one can touch. His slider is very good...but not like RJ's "Mr. Snappy". It's not velocity...he throws hard, but not Verlander hard. He's just a hard throwing guy who throws strikes (wild strikes, but still strikes) and can miss bats...whether he's got the deception and stamina to last deep into games and be an ace...that isn't clear yet.
Pineda has pretty special velocity. His fastball average rivals that of some of the hardest throwers in the game. Of course we have to see if it holds late into the game once April comes around.
Would agree the command and offspeed isn't anything special yet, but the fastball is elite if it holds.
Pineda's average velo is certainly up there...but rather than throwing a bunch of 93s and humping up for 100, he's throwing a bunch of 95s and 96s and there's no more above that. Not sure if that makes a difference or not. It suggests he might be a max-effort pitcher, which is alarming. Or it suggests there's untapped velo if he wanted to throw harder but he's smart enough to just take it easy and throw his easy 95? Which one it is makes a big difference to me.
Love the back-and-forth, Coug m'man, Ghost ... and hate to come off as dogmatic... but this one is like James selling Bagwell and the Hurt, back before the evaluation principles were public domain.
Could explain why the command is plus-plus, why the slider isn't especially dangerous and why the template is virtually a guarantee...
But you know what, three starts into the season, all these conversations will be 100% forgotten. It's easiest just to let you guys see a couple of starts in the reg season than to spend a coupla thousand words demonstrating why he'll be a TOR right away.
Know that comes off as imperious but this one is shooting fish in a barrel. :- ) Pineda isn't quite as good as Lincecum, but the principle is the same: he's an SSI best bet and we're a month in advance of the rest of the world 'getting it' too.
Take the good with the bad: you got a Big Three that will just cause pesky rodent AL west rivals to scurry for the cover of darkness.
:daps: