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I know you were thinking of 'Carnage' but considering his stats and the fact that it's a heckuva name, I'm dubbing him "The WHIP"!!
The Mainframe Crunches Pineda, 7:05 pm
=== UP Scenario, Dept. ===
#1 SLIDER - Pineda's offspeed pitches are inconsistent, like everybody's, including John Lackey's and Josh Beckett's. Well, Bedard's aren't, but y'know.
SSI is expecting swamp-thing to mix some tight-spin, biting sliders with some mushy sliders and with some hanging sliders.
If Pineda is coming out there and cracking off Dwight Gooden yakkers, for called strikes, with any regularity, then upgrade him to Top 10 in AL right now.
Don't expect it, but it could happen.
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#2 - VELO - Will be curious to see how often he ventures into UPPER 90's, rather than mid 90's.
SSI's anointing of Pineda as Instant Star is premised on the idea that he'll sit 94-96, with some 97's. But if Pineda were to add to that, at any point, we'd be talking true Lincecum territory, because this guy commands that heat.
If Pineda were to sit Verlander territory, with that command, the offspeed stuff would be completely beside the point. ... but we're not expecting that either.
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#3 - COMMAND - The third possible pleasant surprise would come if Pineda could pitch an entire game with very few centered fastballs. That would be the third path to instant Cy Young contention.
=== Does SSI Care? Not So Much ===
CHANGE - Won't care much about his change, because he doesn't need one. But we'll watch. Last year it was pretty amusing at times - amusing good.
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MECHANICS - they're a work in progress, and big guys get sloppy when they get tired. For sure, Pineda will start dropping the back foot, and lowering the arm, when he hits his fatigue point. 4th inning? 5th?
But his mechanics are much cleaner and simpler than, say, Mauricio Robles'. In the big picture, his mechanics are simply not an issue. As Felix' weren't.
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PLATOON SPLITS - the best pitch in the world is a located fastball. In the long term, Pineda's platoon splits are just not an issue, any more than Curt Schilling's were.
Similarly, confidence is even less of an issue than was Felix'. Pineda is the original Cool Breeze out there. Check me out, I'm bad, no brag, just fact, that's Pineda.
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RESULTS - Felix had a 4.52 ERA as a rookie.
In Pineda's first TV game, fans will probably want a Bedard flurry of strikeouts to buy in. But remember Earl's Eighth Law ... nobody remembers in May, what happened in March...
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=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
The intersection of [overwhelming velo] with [command] is a given. Pineda will control games with his fastball, end of story.
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How quickly he accelerates that success, by adding the extra skills of .... (1) mistake avoidance, (2) secondary pitches, (3) extra velo, etc., is interesting but it does not bear on the question of whether he is better than Doug Fister and Jason Vargas.
Baseball on TV tonight. Enjoy.
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Be Afraid,
Dr D
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Comments
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Not only is the does the size contribute to the easy 95MPH heaters but look at how long his legs are. There's power in those trunks. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8FWE3kKdF4
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Going to have to look at the legs more amigo... considering how little trunk rotation he uses, wouldn't surprise if he gets Clemens-like push out of the lower half...
:daps:
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Watched the video over and over and have to conclude that he's not pushing off (a la Koufax) and using legs as much as I originally thought. He's got a power torque in the hip flexors and a very efficient body rotation that obviously maintains his control. The one thing I like seeing from big guys is the ability to repeat said motion. Pineda has that. That short, exposive hip turn is hard to teach because his begins later than most and yet he still doesn't seem to be off-balance or putting too much strain on his wing.
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Refresh my memory? As to your pitching background? Not that we're into credentials as such -
Agree - Pineda is an unorthodox man, in that he seems to draw the power out of the front hip and shoulder, despite a short throw. Bruce Lee's four-inch punch...
The decel does look nice and loose and he doesn't show the tight strain on the wing that a lot of short-arm types do ...
At first I thought he WAS short-arming, such is the optical illusion, but in reality he is getting the arm extended...
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My pitching background consists of Little League games back in the day. I played several sports in high school, and have done some martial arts, yoga, etc. Just someone who studies the game...
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While there's a ton here to applaud, I think you buried the lead, (at least, the Lead IMO).
"... Felix had a 4.52 ERA as a rookie ..."
Let me add, (though a diametrically opposite pitcher type) ...
"Greg Maddux had a 5.61 ERA as a rookie."
To me, those two statements are HYPER-critical when discussing rookie pitchers.
Based on everything I've seen, read, heard, etc. - I'm convinced ... Pineda has a 90% shot at becoming an All-Star TOR pitcher.
I also happen to believe that he's more likely than not going to be posting an ERA closer to 5.00 than 3.00 as a rookie, (as Felix and Maddux both did).
While there are occasional rookies who come in and post sterling numbers from day one, my sense is that most of these end up going through their own "rookie season smackdown" somewhere down the line. I believe it's just a case that pitching is simply different than hitting. I think pitchers have some things about their craft that they can *ONLY* learn through experience.
I think you (and Pineda) nailed it when noting he threw too many strikes. And there's the crux of the problem. Against lesser competition, you CAN throw strikes every time you want and not suffer (badly) for doing so. Against MLBers, it's a different story. KNOWING this is a problem is only the first step. But, only through experience, (of getting too much of the plate), will Pineda find the optimal time/situations where nibbling is the superior choice.
A guy like Cliff Lee *can* walk very few hitters. But, years of experience are what ALLOW him to walk so few hitters.
What's funny about Felix is, it "looks" like he had this incredibly smooth and linear improvement, (his ERA goes: 4.52; 3.92; 3.45; 2.49; 2.27). But, when he arrived he walked only 2.8 then 2.5 guys per game. Then, in 2008 that jumped to 3.6. It "looks" like just a bad year, since he dropped back down to 2.7 and 2.5 in '09/'10. I think it's MUCH more complex. He HAD to walk more guys in 2008, because he understood he was allowing too many HRs. And his HR rate did drop slightly in '08. But, it was in '09 that he finally figured out the situational aspect -- where he could intuit when to be aggressive and when to be passive. The result was a lowering of BOTH his walk and HR rates.
The Atlanta Big Three were stupendous at HR prevention. They all three had drastically different styles and stuff -- but each could execute THEIR staff on demand. But, what made them great was they avoided the mistake pitches for 15 years.
The likely reality for Pineda is that "as a rookie", he is not going to avoid the mistake pitches. He, (like Felix and Maddux), is probably going to have a year of failing to live up to expectation - though he'll likely have some individual killer games along the way.
It's the difference between throwing and pitching. Pineda probably has the ABILITY to become a Hall of Fame pitcher. It is the mental side ... how he reacts to the mistakes ... how he adjusts his game and learns along the way that will determine whether he gets there or not.
A 3.20 ERA would be wonderful. But, a 5.20 ERA should not be considered a death knell. The most important aspect of player DEVELOPMENT that the fans need to keep in mind is that instant gratification should not be the expectation. At best, one can hope that the growing pain period is short.
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However, I will take it a bit further in a couple areas.
First, I do believe one reason that Jack Z went after a veteran catcher (like Olivo) is that hopefully Pineda and the young relievers will need guidance to get through this year... and hopefully be that much better and quicker into their development as pitchers for the future.
That being said, I hope that Pineda does not keep throwing 30+% sliders this year. The slider is very tough on the elbow, and his Pineda is so young and STILL growing... more well located fastballs please... like Felix a couple years ago. This may not win a CY young for Pineda this year, but if it keeps him healthy for the next few years... :)