April 2011
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/11
10 Comments
Brooks asks for a link to its charity fund-raising seminar. Here y'go amig-O's.
Those guys have a friendly, "mi casa su casa" attitude, they make Truth and open discussion of it --- > more fluid, and their hearts are in the right place. Excellent information and excellent attitude.
The more sites like Brooks on the internet, the better off is the human condition. The internet may save the world some day, but that will depend on the proliferation of sites with Brooks' attitude.
Alternatively, you might simply enjoy following a Harvard-level discussion of what happens in a baseball game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/11
23 Comments
Q. How lucky did I get, Dr?
A. First time we looked at the X-rays ... an inning here and there when out with friends ... I thought you dodged a 90% mortality bullet there, Mr. Shlabotnik.
Once we had a chance to get back to our office, flip through our Desk Reference and make a few calls, we realized: you won a game you had about a 30% chance of winning.
Given the same pitches, batted balls, etc. in 10 games, I'd say the Red Sox win that game 7 or 8 times. This was one of the two or three.
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Q. Should we apologize for it?
A. Um, no. One-run* games are supposed to be a coin flip. You... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/11
19 Comments
Sez the scout, probably in response to SSI chatter: "Wilson can't hit good velocity and is a DH."
Thanks for passing on the clipboard snip there, Coug.
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=== PRO ===
1. This might be true. If so, it would explain a lot .... except why he's in the org.
The original question is Bill James'. If a guy is going to slug .700 and then you're going to cut him, what was your idea? To prove that he couldn't play?
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2. Nobody is "fascinated" with Mike Wilson. He would be a desperate plea for help. If you're going to dip into AAA to help the offense, Wilson is the only guy there. That's why... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/29/11
7 Comments
PROPS TO JACK CUST who got a 95 mph fastball from Bobby Jenks, let it travel deep into the strike zone, and turned on it with sudden-ness. He socked it hard and far, off the Green Monster. The blow decided the ballgame.
It was a super-compact swing. Inside out, 95 off the hands. He squared it so cleanly you'd have thought he was an LPGA golfer.
An encouraging sign. Don't bust Cust to dust just because Bobby Jenks lacks HOF credentials. Jenks started Cust off with a change-speed and then on pitch 2, Jenks nailed him with a 95 jam pitch on the hands. Two excellent pitches, but Cust... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/29/11
1 Comments
JAMEY WRIGHT marched out of the bullpen in the 8th with a 5-4 lead in Fenway Park.
Facing? These guys:
Adrian Gonzalez LH -- 152 OPS+ last year
Kevin Youkilis RH -- 157 OPS+ last year
David Ortiz LH -- 137 OPS+ last year
Jed Lowrie RH -- 183 OPS+ this year
This will occur in Fenway Park
The best reliever in baseball would have a rough ride with that. Big? This inning would mean the series, probably.
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Wright, coming off two terrific outings, glared in at The Great Adrian Gonzalez and cracked off a 15"/14" change curve Right. Down. the Heart. and was up, 0 balls 1 strike.
Wright threw five... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/29/11
12 Comments
First part here. Great job making the defense's case, counselors. The D.A. steps up for cross.
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Q. What about Cust's 4 homers in Arizona? You think he lost bicep circumference between March and April?
A. ...
Point 1: Not waving off Cust's 4 HR's in spring ... had simply forgotten about them :- )
.................
Point 2: Good catch bro'. The homers in Arizona are a somewhat comforting piece on the other side of the scale. :cpoints:
.................
Point 3: RE: Spring Training Stats.
Not wanting to be stubborn, can't /cosign that March means much. Here, or in any player... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/11
15 Comments
Sez Coug, who this week is locked in mortal kombat with BABVA in the AL-only league:
Raul Ibanez looked finished the first half of 2007. It was so painful to watch that I was practically begging Bavasi to give the spot to Jones because a pennent was on the line. Clearly Ibanez wasn't finished.
When power hitters struggle (Sexson in the first half of 2006 as well), they look finished. But if Cust isn't finished can you think of a player with a higher upside than him just floating around the league? Mike Wilson doesn't interest me because even if he beats the long odds and makes it in the bigs... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/11
10 Comments
Hey, have you guys seen Joshua Maciel's WAR grids? Here are the top Wins Above Replacement ballplayers for the decade of the '00's:
This is exactly what Bill James wanted when he invented Win Shares -- a 30,000 foot aerial of a player's value over the course of his career. That way, you could get a sense of how good an idea it was, or wasn't, to trade Carlos Guillen and Freddy Garcia for Randy Johnson. Stuff like that.
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=== All-Decade Team ===
Notice that Ichiro is the 5th-best player of this decade, and that's if you count Barry Bonds, which I kind of don't.
There are two OF's in a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/11
8 Comments
PROPS TO BASEBALL's FIRST 6-SECOND DOUBLE - Smoak's GWRBI soared majestically out and kicked off the middle of the warning track in CF at Detroit. There are 420' handbills posted nearby.
Austin Jackson looked like Randy Moss on a deep route trying to chase the blast down, but he was a good 10 yards from its landing place when it finally came down.
As Blowers immediately noted, the crosswind was 20-25 mph, and reduced the ball's distance. In a dome, that ball would have been 440 to center.
Don't ever remember any specific "double" with that much hang time, though I'm sure that Cecil... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/28/11
12 Comments
PROPS TO A MESSAGE SERIES - The M's won 7-3, 10-1, and 7-2. Afterwards, the Tigers shook their heads admiringly at the rotation, at Ichiro and Smoak and Figgins, and simply tipped their caps: "They had our number."
This wasn't Pascal's Triangle and balls rolling through. No way no how.
The Mariners played better in three games, deserved to win three games, and did win three games.
Props to everybody who risked being called a homer, and who insisted that this club has too much going for it to --- > quit in April.
SSI insisted throughout: if this were a Vidro/Silva team that was 5-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/11
16 Comments
PROPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK. How sweet are these last few sips of Junior nostalgia.
When LH Smoak goes long the other way, he has that same little drop-and-hop through the swing, he has the dynamic Heismann-type head-up, knee-90 pose on followthrough, and you can hear Junior laughing in the backdrop. HYEH!
nd 22% change curves. I don't say he's Mike Marshall, but since our last post on him, the answer has been Yes.
He's been a different pitcher in 2011. So far.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/11
2 Comments
Left to right Dept: Gravedigger, Bedard, Undertaker, Priest
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Q. Did SSI waver during the 0-4 start? Give it up, now.
A. During the first three games, not at all.
But that fourth game had me wondering about the DL. That looked like a guy in pain, and if he's in pain already, that's all she wrote. Figured a 30% chance of that.
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Q. The Tiger start change the 30% estimate?
A. The first batter took it from 30% to 5%. In Win Expectancy terms, that's a big AB, mate.
In retrospect, it looks pretty clear that in Game Four he was hesitating - not trusting his body. See below... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/11
30 Comments
The Clinton site with a neat little page on James Paxton's pro debut on Wednesday night.
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Dr. D is as enthused (or not) about high draft picks* as the next guy ... G-Money was the guy who had Nick Franklin nailed, not yrs. truly. But when James Paxton got here and started throwing, SSI was stunned on two fronts:
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1) Paxton's mechanics are just about as good as I have ever seen from a LHP, from Mark Langston down to Cliff Lee his ownself.
You probably see great mechanics and think, "he'll stay healthy." But for me the knee-jerk reaction is, great mechanics = starter's rhythm and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/26/11
25 Comments
PROPS TO WHOEVER SAID HITTING IS CONTAGIOUS - For three-point-two innings Tuesday, not only the M's fans but also Eric Wedge were thinking the classics (those being, brown bags over their faces).
Three dreary innings, culminating in Jack Wilson not remembering or not CARING how many outs there were, when getting doubled off by a lazy fly ball. I mean, what difference does it really make? We're not going to knock me in from 1B with two outs anyway.
GRRRrrrrrr.
Two outs, nobody on, Miguel Olivo doubled, and Justin Smoak stepped in.
Phil Coke, a talented LHP, worked Smoak carefully. The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/26/11
8 Comments
Doug Fister FOREVER IN DEBT TO YOUR PRICELESS ADVICE Dept. - We didn't write a postgame after that one, but Doogie again fanned 5 guys in 6 innings, running his streak to 17 in his last 19 innings.
We'd mentioned after his previous start that his changeup had almost been lost in the wash ... against a LH Oakland lineup he busted it out for 17-of-22 strikes.
How was his sparkly new 12-6 curve under Olivo's supervision? Against Oakland, he cranked up the break on it until he could barely keep it in the zone. We are talking a true Aaron Sele yellow hammer at this point, gentlemen. At... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/26/11
With apologies to Detect-O-Vision, which first adapted spaghetti-western shtick for its own (ab)use.
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=== The Bad ===
Let this saying sink deeeeep into your ears: Felix Hernandez' fastball is only about as effective as Doug Fister's.
This does not mean that a blurry-fast pitch is inferior to one that floats. It means, rather, that there is something wrong with Felix' macro strategy.
As Hal-9000 (or Dr. D, we forget which) once said about his failing brain, there is no question about this. The macro strategy, we mean.
-0.84 ... Felix' run value per 100 fastballs, 2011 (negative values... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/26/11
31 Comments
I asked G_Money who he was keeping an eye on for Ms 2nd-round pick (62nd overall). Don't miss his answer. Exec sum:
Charlie Tilson, speedy HS CF from Illinois
Tyler Anderson, LHP from Oregon who may not last that long
Josh Osich, LHP from Oregon State coming off TJ surgery
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Baseball America has a new mock draft out:
1. Anthony Rendon to Pirates
2. Gerrit Cole to Ms
3. Jed Bradley to D-backs
4. Danny Hultzen to Os
5. Bubba Starling to Royals (what an accumulation of talent that would be -- plus he's from Kansas, so it's a fit)
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Two guys that started the year in... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/25/11
12 Comments
Everybody fell in love with Nick Franklin last year, and with good reason. He demolished the low-A Midwest League as a 19-year-old barely out of high school, ripping out 52 XBH, including 23 HR. This from a guy who was supposed to be a "Bloomquist"/gym-rat/grinder type.
But there were a few chinks in the armor: the main one being his struggles vs. LHP while batting from the right side (paltry .149/.208/.246 slash line); the other being a 24% strikeout rate and 0.41 eye ratio (BB/K), which are tolerable, but not ideal.
In 2011, the first problem is still evident (.214/.313/.214), and the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/11
22 Comments
PROPS TO JACK ZDURIENCIK for putting Michael Pineda in the Opening Day rotation. The season's still alive, because of that.
"Sickly" and "Dead" are two different things. The players are reacting to Felix/Pineda, and Capt Jack has a little time yet to come up with a 90 OPS+. You feel me?
Baker pointed out that Pineda is the first Mariner ever to notch Quality Starts in his first four attempts. Like to see the list of guys who did that since 1994. In MLB, I mean. Not many, I'll bet.
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SLOPS TO THE M'S BATTING ORDER which, absent Bradley and Smoak, is well-and-truly into PCL... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/11
11 Comments
Remember 2004, the year the M's went from 93 wins to 99 losses?
That was the year John Olerud hit the wall. He had a .360 OBP, but he also had 22 RBI's in the first half, and he and Edgar made for the worst pair of high-OBP players in league history.
They were a lot better than Jack Cust is now, though.
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SLOPS TO JACK CUST'S POWER OUTAGE - SSI spent the winter "analyzing" whether he lost his SLG due to the A's harassing him to take fewer pitches.
My bad. They didn't. Cust has simply lost his ability to hit very many homers. It's not a shocker; many ML hitters are done at 32. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/11
Q. How was the fastball?
A. Against the Jays, it was fast and precise ... against the Royals, faster and a bit wilder.
This game, I felt his FB was a bit slower and a bit wilder -- nominally his worst FB of the year.
By his own standards, we mean. Brooks had him at 95.6 mph, and he threw 70% strikes. But I felt he was a bit sloppier than in his first four starts.
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Q. The slider?
A. He detonated the LH Barton on it, second hitter of the game, a looking K.... and then it seemed to me that he didn't really choose it in the most do-or-die situations. That could be just me.
I didn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/11
1 Comments
Q. What was SSI's defining moment?
A. My favorite moment was after pitch three above:
Top of the fifth, Pineda leading by a skinny 1-0 margin
Leadoff hitter had singled off Pineda's leg (Kouzmanoff, 96 mph)
Pineda started Pennington off 0-1
Pineda came back with a gorgeous slider on the hands, getting plenty of the plate (pitch 2 above). The ump called it a ball. (Brooks says that the ump took 8-9 strikes from Pineda and gave him back 0, or 1, strikes outside the zone.)
Pineda, nonplussed, came back 95 inside and hands-high, a pitch that simply cannot be hit by anybody, any time, any... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/11
10 Comments
=== Scorched Earth Dept. ===
In the first inning today, Michael Pineda threw two changeups. These turned on a particular light bulb that Dr. D had always felt bad about having dark.
Pedro Martinez, in his age-28 season, ran an ERA+ that read, on b-ref.com, 291. Pedro's ERA was 1.74, in a golden-age offensive season that saw many, many players hit 40+ homers.
The best ERA in the AL, other than Pedro's, was 3.70 by Roger Clemens. Only four pitchers were under 4.00, and here Pedro was at 1.74 -- an ERA that would have been terrific in 1912.
Pedro's 1.74 ERA also occurred in Fenway Park,... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 04/20/11
12 Comments
Everyone is wondering when Ackley will be movin' on up to the West Side.
I have a growing sense that the moment may be nearing. Why? It's not because of his .250 average of .364 OBP or .375 slugging (.739 OPS) at Tacoma at the moment. Nor is it because of his 10:10 K/BB. It's not even because he is 4 of 5 in SBs already, (the most overlooked portion of Ackley's resume is that yes, Virginia, he does have speed).
It is because at the moment he has 1 double and 2 HRs. THAT is the magic ratio for minor league guys capable of making a transition to the majors AND bringing their power strokes... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/11
13 Comments
It's fun to lose
and to pretend
She's over bored and self-assured
I know, I know, a dirty word ...
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I find it hard, it's hard to find
Oh well, whatever, nevermind
Doug Fister's last two starts have slammed Dr. D back into his overstuffed sofa, and he got to wondering about the rotation if even their #5 guy is going to start kickin' booty and takin' names ...
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xFIP, Expected Fielding-Independent Pitching, tells you (basically) what a pitcher's ERA would be if he pitched 10,000 innings the same way he has so far, AND:
He was pitching with average fielders behind him
He had a league-average... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/11
1 Comments
Image from the TNT
After Fister's 3rd start of the season, the mainframe thought it saw something strange in his pitching.
BABVA claimed him in the SSI AL-only league and gingerly deployed him this week -- against Justin, the guy I most owe a good keister-kicking.
Tuesday night against the Tigers, we saw it again in Fister's game -- this time, underlined and with an exclam. We picked him up in the 20-team mixed league and he'll be starting for BABVA over bigger names until further notice.
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=== Distant Replay Dept. ===
Fister has done a lot of things right. He pitches with major league... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/11
12 Comments
=== Fister's Plus Fastball ===
Fister's heater is a plus pitch in its own right.
You heard Dr. D whine all through 2010 about Fister leading the league* in FB percentage thrown, but as much pressure as the catchers put on that 88 heater, it was the gift that kept on giving. It still had an excellent +0.7 runs / 100 value.
Fister's fastball is "plus" because of his supreme command, its downward plane, and all that. But just recently we've discovered that tall, overhand pitchers like Fister add an apparent 4-8 mph (!) to their heaters because of their release points and angles. Read this... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/19/11
8 Comments
Julio Morban -- the "mystery prospect"
19-years-old at Clinton (just like Franklin last year): 18-for-50, 4 dbl, 1 tpl, 2 BB, 14 K (yeah, that teenage Latin eye ratio) -- .360/.396/.480
Carlos Triunfel -- left for dead in the prospect ditch, but still just 21 in AA
11-for-40, 3 dbl, 2 HR, 2 BB, just 3 K -- .275/.310/.500
Danny Carroll -- former 3rd-round pick still strugging to rise above A-ball at 22, but getting the High Desert sparkle dust this year
16-for-47, 5 dbl, 2 HR, 8 BB, 11 K -- .340/.429/.574
(Raben and Catricala doing well there, too; James Jones, not so much)
Nick Franklin... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/18/11
2 Comments
Whereas I only play a (roto) doctor on the internet, Kelly actually has his sheepskin ... he also had a 5-for-5 night, so:
I few notes I find interesting about Pineda's performance. Pineda has a strikeout rate of 15K/9 in the first inning of his three starts, compared to a rate of 6.06K/9 in all other innings. The hitters are coming up in the first inning looking to do damage, are realizing they are overmatched, and using their pepper swing for the rest of the game.
Had not seen this stats split. What a g-r-e-a-t catch.
In Kansas City, this syndrome was not only the reality, but also was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/11
14 Comments
SLOPS TO WHOEVER FIGURED you could slug it out in the AL without hitting homers. Even the wins occur by dint of massive effort. Maybe if you get Bob Gibson II on the mound, and a blown call by an ump, and your shortstop gets the big hit, you'll win by a run.
Have you seen this graphic on b-ref.com?
Green for GO, or win ... Red for STOP, or loss .... the length of the bar = margin of victory.
I suppose you can see at a glance that you're not going to be predicting a winning streak for this graphic...
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SLOPS TO THE LUCK STATS, two of which (RISP and BABIP) actually are luck and one of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/11
16 Comments
Q. How was the fastball?
A. Harder and wilder. Rather than being 94-98 with plus-plus command ... this time it was 97-99, even 100!, with only plus command.
Yes, that considers the variations between guns. That ball was getting on the Royals every blinkin' inch as fast as the Big Unit got it there.
That was Randy Johnson velo. Not "nearly" Unit velo. That was Randy Johnson velocity. The 1995 version.
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Q. Was it too wild? Why do you say the command was "plus"?
A. No, it was still plus command - considerably better location than you'd get from, say, the young Josh Beckett or Dwight... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/11
11 Comments
Q. So does that put "paid" to the discussion?
A. For you it does. Being the creme' de la creme' of the 'net rat grotto and all.
If you've now watched Michael Pineda throw ~300 pitches and you don't know whether he should be in the minor or major leagues, Dr. D can't help you. Euthanasia has its supporters.
The discussion was feebleminded to begin with, and is now boring Dr. D. One more treatment regimen on the Pineda vs. LHB delusion, and we're Triaging this patient. Down to the morgue, where it belongs.
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Q. This was a real LHB lineup that Pineda just hog-slaughtered?
A. The Royals... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/16/11
6 Comments
Some losing streaks are ... just losing streaks. Others are life-threatening. The current M's losing streak is the latter.
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=== Two Stats ===
STAT ONE: Bedard, 15 K in 13 IP. That's not a stat posted by ANYBODY with a dead arm. It's a real shame that things haven't gone his way -- especially during an early pivot point.
But Erikkk is who he is. If he pulls a Chris Carpenter and rips off three years of healthy performance, he's a (third) Opening Day starter. And if the M's could ever get to the playoffs with Felix, Pineda, and Erikkkk...
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STAT TWO: Bedard, 0-3 .. if he'd started... Read More
Posted by Loopster on 04/16/11
5 Comments
For those who haven't met him per this screen name, Rick used to publish Caffeinated Confines. Hope to hear his angle on the M's frequently. Welcome Rick! - Jeff
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It's well documented that High Desert is Life To Flying Things, as pop flies are easily turned into home runs. Mariner farmhand Chris Sorce has it figured out, however, Last night he pitched 7 innings of no earned run ball.
Success was due to a very impressive 12/3 GB/FB rate to go with 4 Ks and no walks. He was let down by an error by highly regarded gloveman Gabriel Noriega, and so didn't get the win. But it appears... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/15/11
4 Comments
1. The offense needs more hitters. These should have been added during the offseason. That's stipulated, mate.
2. The offense, however, has had a run of bad luck that has put Eric Wedge's sanity to an acid test right out of the gate.
The Big Three Luck Stats used by neo-sabes are:
AVG on balls hit into fair play
HR's on balls hit up into the outfield
Strand rate
Neo-sabermetrics is concerned largely with asking, "What would have happened if these three stats had been average?"
Fangraphs takes it for granted that the above stats are almost purely luck, with a few minor caveats. Dr. D... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/15/11
5 Comments
Q. Bad luck again? or bad pitching from Erik?
A. Amigos want to see victories, not excuses, and I don't blame 'em. :- ) But we are still gonna call 'em as we see 'em.
Over a year's period of time we've learned to ignore W-L-ERA and look at K's, BB's, and HR's. Too bad we can't do the same over three starts' time...
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Q. How was the strike zone on Friday?
A. The plot is above. Here is the direct link to Brooks.
There were 10 Bedard pitches directly within the strike zone that were called balls, another three to five one inch off the zone which are normally called strikes (see... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/11
14 Comments
G sez,
[Smoak is going to walk more] than A-Gone, at least early-career A-Gone. He just is. Adrian Gonzalez was in the Paul Konerko sort of hitter for me - doesn't walk as much as he should given his strengths, but still does plenty of damage. The last couple of years Gonzalez has gone to another level, walking far more and punishing mistakes a bit better. He looks like he's climbed out of that hitter family - a learner, as you said.
I'm having trouble with Smoak's "family" of hitter. Is he Thome-class? Will he swing at more pitches and bump his Ks up in order to max out his power... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/11
6 Comments
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Image from HitTrackerOnline.com. G-Money was impressed by Smoak's lefty homer into the LF bullpen:
Power to RCF the last few games for Smoak as a lefty. Double off the wall and a no-doubt HR to the dead side of the ball field in cold weather when the ball shouldn't fly.
He's coming around on his greed problem. ;)
Smoak: .275/.388/.475/.863 with 5 doubles and 1 HR in 12 games, with 8BB and 9K in 40 ABs.
That's about what I'd want to see from him in a really good first run around the league, and I think he's just getting started. A-Gone posted a .862 OPS his first full season at age 24... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/11
19 Comments
Geoffy bats for a 320/400/600 slash line on his analysis of the M's roster decisions impending.
He covers not only the Strat-O-Matic logic, the WAR-vs-WAR type thinking that you'd see covered anywhere else ... but also extends his reporting to capture the things that an actual shot-caller, such as Jack Zduriencik, will be thinking about:
Strat-O-Matic indicators based on pure performance
Political realities (you couldn't admit a Cust mistake* in April in the conference room)
Clubhouse realities
"Mission statement": losing 88 vs 105 and the attendance issue
Gutierrez and Aardsma are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
4 Comments
Here are the 2011 major league leaders in fastball velocity (FBv):
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A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, SSI offered its take on Michael Pineda, writing him up as a unique intersection of Velocity x Command.
In order to be comparable to Michael Pineda in this pitcher template, you would need a pitcher off the above list -- preferably Felix and higher -- to have a very low walk rate. Not blinkin' likely, mate.
There is one pitcher like that right now. Here is the 2010 BB leaderboard:
"font-size: small;">Schilling's 1993 is just what SSI expects for Pineda this year: 7.7 K, 2.2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
1 Comments
PROPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK'S GAME-SAVING THROW to cut down the tying run in the 8th. G-Money sez,
Smoak tracking that ball down deep into foul territory then firing a shot back to Olivo, knowing that a swift baserunner at 3rd might tag up...
Good, heads-up stuff there. He's doing some things wrong at the plate but he's got time to fix it. What he's doing right is very right, and he's a gamer in my book.
He saw fastball, hit fastball in his first AB, grounded out on a nasty breaking pitch (change I think) in his second after failing to swing at any of the inside pitches, then swung at the first... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
Q. What about Pineda's fastball ratio Tuesday? SSI hates that, right?
A. As a general rule, SSI tends to think that NPB pitching is more intelligent and evolved -- that MLB pitchers use their fastballs too much.
But general principles often don't apply to the concrete specifics of a given position. Michael Pineda has SSI's blessing to throw 90%, literally 90%, fastballs if he's so inclined.
Pineda threw fastballs on 75 of 103 pitches Tuesday -- and got a 20% swinging strike percentage on those 75 !
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Q. How can such a thing occur?
How does a left hand ML star (like Adam Lind) swing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
1 Comments
Q. What do you think of his tempo?
A. Pitchers will tell you that there are two big benefits to the machine-gun tempo: (1) the hitter doesn't have time to think, and (2) he can repeat his mechanics very easily.
All pitching coaches want a quick tempo. Everybody hates to see a pitcher stand there holding the ball, worrying about where the hitter's going to smash the ball.
Pitchers who can make a quick tempo work, can butcher lineups in two hours. Pineda's tempo is a major plus, a big increase in his chances to compete for a Cy Young.
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Q. Hitters can't punish Pineda?
A. No, not if he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
2 Comments
Q. Why is it that the Mariners (and the mainframe) understand Michael Pineda, while everybody else frets about whether he'll be okay?
A. Basically: non-players do not fully grasp the effect on the game, that is carried by a 96 mph fastball on the edge of the plate.
A LOCATED 94-98 FASTBALL TRANSCENDS PLATOON SPLITS.
Capiche? You will never talk to an ML player who tells you anything different. Period.
And you will never find a pitcher who located hot fastballs -- Schilling, Clemens, Verlander, Drysdale, whoever -- who couldn't get left hand batters out.
It's not an incrimination that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
16 Comments
G-Money sez,
Rendon in 63 games (226 ABs) last year:
.394/.539/.801/1.340, 12 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 65BB/22K, 6 HBP
Rendon in basically half the season this year (36 games, 117 ABs): .359/.561/.556/1.117, 10 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 52BB/19K, 3 HBP
They're trying to walk him a hundred times this year. He gets nothing to hit, since one of the only other threats in the lineup went down injured. The next highest walk total on the team is 19.
Everything I could have asked for in order for Rendon to fall to us is happening. His power has taken a hit, what with not being pitched to and having the new... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
17 Comments
PROPS TO MICHAEL SAUNDERS, whose slash line right now gives a glimpse of SSI's UP projection for this player.
AVG .263
OBP .318
SLG .474
OPS+ 125
BB - 50 per 150 games
K - 100 per 150
2B - 25 (or 30) per full season
HR - 25 (or 30) per full season
SB - 25 per full season
His runs are 75 and RBI are 125 per full season... whatever
Have always seen Saunders as a .260 hitter with 30 homers in the UP scenario. Lo and behold, he's sporting a 265/320/475 slash line, with 25 SB's and a decently-solid 0.50 EYE. A compelling visual.
That's Grady Sizemore minus 30-40 walks, and adjusted for Safeco... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
2 Comments
Q. What happened on that first pitch?
A. Two men out, tying run on 3rd, winning run on 2nd, outfield in, Luis Rodriguez steps up with a slopballing RHP on the mound.
Camp, afraid to thow a strike as were all other Blue Jays on the first 200 pitches they threw, threw a horrible 86 mph floating "fastball" aiming for a baseball's width off the plate, in hopes that the ump would give him a called strike.
Camp missed. The ball went a foot outside.
I don't think that even the F/X above does the pitch justice. It was a ball right out of the pitcher's hand; it never crossed the strike zone area... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/11
11 Comments
Q. What does Dr. D know about hitting? Can he hit a curve ball?
A. Dr. D knows only what Ted Williams knows about hitting, since he has wallowed in Teddy's book My Turn At Bat and Carl Yastrzemski's book Baseball, the Wall, and Me (Teddy was Yaz' hitting coach).
Like Earl said, "I can't hit a curve ball, but I can tell you what a bad one is."
Bill Belichick could never play football, but football games on video allowed him to decipher a few things about the game.
Dr. D is not Bill Belichick, of course, but neither does he accept the rebuke that "you never played the game, so you can't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/11
Q. Is SSI willing to consider the possibility that Bedard isn't throwing well? That he won't come back all the way?
A. Very willing. Intrigued by the possibility, we sat down two hours ago to see whether this might be the case.
.........
We saw an article recently, claiming that Bedard used to throw 92-96, and now only throws 90, so he's no good any more.
And, after his first loss against Texas, we saw some post somewhere based on Bedard having only 4 swings-and-misses last start (or whatever) and proclaiming him done as an elite pitcher.
I sat down to this Bedard start to determine... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/11
13 Comments
Q. First root cause of the 6 runs: you say the ball was up in the zone?
A. Check out the strike zone plot from Brooks.
Or, here's the direct link within the browser.
It's a little tough to do, but if you magnify the image on your screen and look for all the light blue squares (the hits), you'll see there are 10 of them -- 9 that are at the centerline or higher, and other one almost waist-high, and centered.
That's the definition of poor location. The Tribe got 10 pitches up, and got base hits out of them.
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Q. How was the ump'ing?
A. You'll notice six pitches inside the strike zone... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/11
8 Comments
Coug sez,
Hustle Board ?
It looks like the offense will be painful to watch this year because while we are taking a lot of pitches (good) we aren't capable of doing real damage when we get into favorable counts. The Mariners were absolutely mulched by an average pitcher last night who did not have his best stuff. This team is patient but we don't do much damage when we get our pitch.
I wonder how long it will take for teams to begin pounding the strikezone against the Mariners.
SSI sez,
I don't imagine that Smoak, Cust and Bradley will finish with 0, 0, and 0 homers. (The first seven... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/11
9 Comments
PROPS TO GEOFF BAKER who, though he has predicted 90-100 losses all spring long, sagely declined to pile on after a nauseating blowout extended the losing streak to five:
Despite how it may feel, the Mariners lost only one game tonight. It doesn't count for 10 losses, though some of those who spent money on tickets might want it to as a punitive measure.
That'll do for us too. Except:
There would come some point at which SSI would bail on the 2011 season.
That point is not after 2-and-5.
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SLOPS TO THE HR RATE, sitting at 2 homers in 7 games. After eight games, the M's should have at... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 04/07/11
10 Comments
Except for the numbers on the paycheck and the number of months the club is obligated to keep writing them, I see not much difference among Figgins, Wilson, Kennedy and L-Rod.
They are all guys on the back side of 30, with spotty offensive histories, gravitating toward the vacinity of .265/.340/.380 (only difference is L-Rod has shown the possibility of a higher SLG, but hasn't proven it in the majors).
Kennedy had an awful year in 07, but his BABIP was .238, so it was partially bad fortune. Exclude that year, and downgrade the speed a few notches (but he's always had double-digit... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/11
8 Comments
=== Morning Sudoku Dept. ===
Compare pitches #1 and #6 above to pitch #4, very carefully, and see if anything jumps out at you.
If you need to phone a friend, check Brooks and compare his FF to his SL -- especially the speed and V-Breaks.
Got it yet?
................
Spec Sez:
Is it possible to be mediocre for 15 years ... and then make a mechanical adjustment that makes you good?
Spec quotes Baker, who as usual, is alert very early on to an emerging story:
Wright, 36, had a 5.00 ERA in 466 major league games with 10 different teams over the years. But he made an adjustment last season in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/11
PROPS TO THE M's for the way they battled.
The Hanson Brothers didn't win every fight. Winning every fight wasn't the point. What was the point?
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SLOPS TO THE STRANGERS for timing their 10-year perfect storm for when we were in town.
Consolation for M's fans? We played them a lot tougher than the Red Sox did. (With the M's on a 4-game losing streak, SSI is changing it from "they" to "we".)
Pitching "game scores" against them the Arlington bandbox:
36 - Jon Lester
6 - John Lackey
48 - Clay Buchholz
44 - Erik Bedard
53 - Michael Pineda
65 - Felix, estimated
The Rangers looked awesome... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/11
6 Comments
PROPS TO BRENDAN RYAN whose sac fly in the 2nd was 1) critical, and 2) technically admirable. That was a real tough jam pitch on which to get the ball in the air -- Ryan got it deep enough for Jack Cust.
Though his stats aren't there yet - he's what, 2-for-18? - I like the way he's hitting. And his EYE is 3:2 early, which is much better than, say, 0:6 as is Ryan Langerhans'.
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SLOPS TO JACK WILSON'S ERRORS in the 2nd, which were the ballgame -- Felix woulda cruised through 8 and we'd a won, prob'ly.
At shortstop he made 16-18 errors a year, too. Wilson's great, and I don't really buy... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/11
8 Comments
PROPS TO MICHAEL PINEDA, who threw 69% strikes with wicked stuff. And threw 11 swinging strikes in 84 pitches -- 13%.
As Bill Krueger aptly pointed out, after Pineda's wipeout 1st inning, the Rangers took to defensive hitting -- trying put the ball in play on the first pitch, so that they wouldn't be abused in deep counts and strikeouts.
Dr. D thoroughly enjoyed Krueger's report of the game-within-the-game down on the field, the mano-a-mano. He enjoyed even more the idea of the Rangers tucking their tails between their legs after watching one blinkin' inning of this kid.
.......
The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/11
8 Comments
PROPS TO FELIX for being a Seattle Mariner. They have a saying in golf, usually applied when assessing new golf courses -- "Par is supposed to be a good score."
If the Mariners come home from Oakland and Texas at 3-and-3, they're shooting par. Par in the best sense of the word.
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SLOPS TO ALEXI OGANDO for being "on" tonight. I thought we were supposed to get a #5 starter somewhere in the first five games?!
First three games were against the AL's best pitching staff. Next two were against two very-up-and-down young SP's who couldn't miss with their curve balls. GRRRRrrrrrrr.
C.J. Wilson... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/11
2 Comments
Spec sez:
Jack Wilson props?
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=sea&content_id=13469237
The dude's not even a second baseman. That was ballet.
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Ghost tears down the field in hot pursuit:
That should have made Doc's props comments.
.... Wilson's truly sensational DP, the great play by Ryan in the hole on the speedy Andrus, the fine leather thrown by Figgins on the hard grounder to his left early on with runners on base that stopped a run with the infield drawn in...
... These Mariners looked WAY more into the game defensively than last year's club did even in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/11
9 Comments
PROPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK who has come out of the gate looking like the AL's next 300/400/500 cleanup hitter.
In four games against four tough pitchers, he has a diamond-hard .529 OBP and .615 SLG, but it's not the results as such that matter. It's the way he is controlling the strike zone, and the fact that he is beating good pitching.
Above, you see the 93 jam pitch that he blasted back up against the CF wall.
93 mph from a LHP is equal to a 95 mph fastball from a RH. And 95 inside is the equivalent of 97 outside.
Smoak took a plus-plus-plus fastball and absolutely crushed it. There is a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/11
=== Suuuuuuure, Dept. ===
After four games, the Rangers sport a teamwide 173 OPS+, including a .722 SLG. Their whole ballclub has a SLG that is 100 points north of Albert Pujols'.
I predict that if they maintain their 173 OPS+, or even 169+, they will win the division.
In our zeal to measure everything in baseball, neo-sabes have foolishly asserted that we can measure everything in baseball, and censor out everything that has reference to intangibles and chemistry.
Such as the concept of "a hot ballclub."
..........
We remember the 1987 Brewers starting 13-0 (!!), 17-1 and 20-3.
We... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/11
10 Comments
SLOPS TO ICHIRO for the dropped fly ball that cost Bedard two runs and seven pitches. Coincidentally, the Mariners lost by two runs.
The ball was a low liner that hit him waist high, and he just had it go off his glove. ... Ichiro also overran a groundball base hit, having it tick off his glove and get behind him.
That's about five such plays in his last 50 games, compared to none :- ) his first 1,500. I'm not worried, but am intellectually curious what is going on.
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PROPS TO BEDARD for throwing as well as he did under strange circumstances -- the 1927 Yankees, the dropped balls... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/03/11
6 Comments
=== SLOPS ===
To the A's for their cowardly gambit, rolling out onto the field in day-glo reflective gold satin.
Granted, it only worked six or seven times, but the occasions in which the Mariners did lose the ball in the A's jerseys were ill-timed. Don't believe me? So why was Doug Fister wearing gargoyles?
Nobody said that "weak" doesn't "work." Those jerseys were made in Hong Kong, you know that.
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Josh Lueke. In spring we were startled by raw he looked.
We don't say he's done, and actually I had to leave for work just as he entered the ballgame. But the blinded fielders and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/03/11
2 Comments
Looo-Kee here, Josh and Danny: this is where your torso winds up on a baseball-pitch followthrough. - Your friend, Dr D
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I'll take precisely 31 more starts from Doogie Fister like Sunday's. And the M's would win 20 of those starts.
Never mind 31. I'll take a million of 'em, just like that, replicated like from a Blade Runner factory.
Fister won't throw that good every time out, and they won't win 20 of his starts, but if M's win 50% of Fister's and Vargas' starts, well .... the other pitchers being much better than they are, you do the math.
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Doogie was #3 in the American League (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/11
2 Comments
... and that 175-122 is with the A's using:
Brett Anderson, with a 2.01 ERA vs. the M's in 10 starts
A 9K left hand tough guy, deployed against the M's 7-8-9 hitters
Grant Balfour, who should be a closer
Brian Fuentes, who saved 48 games for the Angels in 2009 and 24 last year
And with the M's using their #4 starter. I wonder if Klat can do a "Hustle Board" that counts the pitches thrown by both sides every night?
Brett Anderson's ERA+ was 148 last year; Trevor Cahill's was 139. Ryan Rowland Smith's wasn't. The pitch counts against MLB's best pitching staff?
Friday: 184 vs 108
Saturday... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/11
5 Comments
Behind Brett Anderson, the Oakland A's woulda beaten up most MLB teams Saturday night. Unfortunately for them, they messed with the wrong Marines.
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=== The 3rd Run ===
9th inning, score tied 2-2, and the A's now running with their third ace short reliever of the evening. (The Oakland A's had the best ERA in the league last year, by far. When you go through 20 pitchers and they all average a 116 ERA+, that is impressive.)
Tie game, two on, 1 out, LH Ichiro up, and LHP Brian Fuentes on the mound.
Fuentes has 72 saves the last two years, almost 200 saves on his career, and is possessor... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/11
6 Comments
=== Wallowing In 2-and-Oh ===
Aside from The Play of the ballgame, the 3rd run, here are some of my other favorite "tough at-bats" on the evening:
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1) 4-2, top of the ninth, Ichiro on 2B against a lefty. He swipes 3rd.
2) Figgins dips a bit at the knees, gets under the ball, and launches a medium-deep, perfect-trajectory fly ball to CF to drive him in. (It's more precise to hit a fly ball when you don't pull it to straightaway LF.)
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3) Top 7th, Ryan rips a double down the LF line, 0 out .... Wilson unfortunately goes to 0-and-2.
But Wilson, determined to move Ryan over, short-swings... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
7 Comments
=== Keep Your EYES On It, Kid ===
Problemo is this: he's pulling his head off the ball early, in his greedy attempts to hit home runs.
Here the term "greed" isn't an insult, but a sports-psychology observation. It appears to be much more contained from the right side. But from the left side, the greed is noxious.
.......
If you care to, you can watch for it yourself the rest of the series.
On the righty double Opening Day, his head was RIGHT DOWN ON THE BAT -- as the ball made contact with it. Remember Ted Williams being able to tell where on the baseball he hit it with a tarred bat... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
10 Comments
=== Get To the Point, Dept. ===
Do the Mariners look rebuilt and overhauled? The answer is Yes.
And the answer would have been Yes, if they'd lost, too. ... hey, if the Mariners were playing Casey Kotchman and Rob Johnson and if they'd left Michael Pineda down for Luke French and all that garr-bajjj, we'd be screaming.
But this club has been overhauled. It's got a shot. At contending.
We'll see. But this offense will make life (more) difficult for rodent enemy pitching, and every year some Cinderella team comes up with a killer rotation out of nowhere. There's no reason to rule that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
6 Comments
=== Ichiro ===
Two hits, two steals ... with the score 2-0 Oakland, scored the first run and drove in the tying run. Rickey once told a Mariner in the 1990's, "you guys always lose by one run and I always score two..."
Was picked off and grounded into a double play, so I'm sure he's clinically depressed after winning the game for the M's. The Japanese are into precision.
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=== Chone ===
Visibly more alert, visibly more aggressive, just visibly more into the ballgame. Chatted happily with bro' Milton and showed joyful body language.
Studied the pitches carefully and POUNCED when he got... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
=== Jack Cust ===
Had four consecutive full counts, and in fact walked three different times.
Cust doesn't just walk up there with the bat glued to his shoulder; he knows the pitchers and he's working the sequence to get what he wants, where he wants it.
There's a good 25% chance that Cust will hit the wall this year, go over-the-hill. He's got old player's skills and you can't rule it out. And he may very well not be able to hit LHP; let's hope he's not destroyed by Anderson and Giovanni the next two nights.
............
CA/Billy1 speaks in terms of "giving the club a pro AB." Night... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
3 Comments
=== Phase I ===
In the first inning, home plate ump Gary Darling struck out the second Mariner of the game, Chone Figgins, on a questionable (not to say "incorrect") call.
Darling then struck out the third hitter of the game, Milton Bradley, on another questionable (not wrong) call.
The Mariners' new Home Plate Road Warriors continued to insist on disciplined strike zones, and Darling continued to tell them he wasn't buying in to the new 101-loss lineup.
He promptly called four of them out on called third strikes in the first three innings, and 6 of Cahill's 8 strikeouts were called by... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
=== Trevor Cahill ===
There ain't a lot of lousy pitchers who go 18-8, 2.97. But as Opening Day enemies go, the M's could do a lot worse than Cahill. Verlander-Sabathia this ain't.
We Shandlerians look at Cahill's performance, on a skills basis:
43 BPV (50 being acceptable)
4.5 - 5.4 strikeouts the range, 2009-2010
2.9 - 3.6 walks
Control ratio a rather queasy 1.7
Very mediocre fastball -- thrown almost 70% of the time
... and we see somebody who is a lot more similar to Doug Fister, than he is to Tim Hudson or Dave Stewart. In fact, Fister's component skills are considerably better than... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
=== News & Notes ===
Have you seen this MLB link, bro'? Kewl 5-minute chill before a ballgame.
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Ichiro is 401 hits ahead of Junior and 3 hits behind Edgar. After the road trip, Ichiro will have hit safely more times than any Mariner you ever watched. Lonnie. We're talking to you.
Ichiro's a lock for 3,000 MLB hits and we presume that his NPB + MLB hits will exceed Pete Rose's. And he played in Safeco. Do you unnerstand who you're watching here?
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Felix' ERA in "1st games of his season" is 1.36 lifetime. On Opening Days, he has 33 K's against 0 home runs.
Felix' April ERA of 2.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/01/11
15 Comments
=== SLOPS: Saunders vs Langerhans ===
SSI was surprised, and not pleasantly, that MLB(TM) veteran Ryan Langerhans was playing over the overhauled Michael Saunders. I mean, what is Ryan Langerhans' future? You might as well say, "well, we don't have anybody in center field tonight, but pretty soon Gutierrez might be back."
This after your one ML-ready outfielder just now had a breakthrough moment, and just hit an HR what?, last game I think. Wasn't that the one run in an 8-1 loss or something?
.........
Only thing I could figure: it's a political nod, a clubhouse move.
...........
Nay... Read More