Q. What does Dr. D know about hitting? Can he hit a curve ball?
A. Dr. D knows only what Ted Williams knows about hitting, since he has wallowed in Teddy's book My Turn At Bat and Carl Yastrzemski's book Baseball, the Wall, and Me (Teddy was Yaz' hitting coach).
Like Earl said, "I can't hit a curve ball, but I can tell you what a bad one is."
Bill Belichick could never play football, but football games on video allowed him to decipher a few things about the game.
Dr. D is not Bill Belichick, of course, but neither does he accept the rebuke that "you never played the game, so you can't understand the pitcher-hitting battle." Playing the game, or not, doesn't always matter much. This is the 21st century.
SSI doesn't imagine that Theo Epstein would hit all that well in the AL.
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Q. Justin Smoak is still greedy at the plate?
A. Appalingly. Hey, take it as good news. What happens when he starts hitting?!
If you missed it, here's our earlier article "Greed for Success." Can there be such a thing as too much attachment to an outcome? Sure there can. When you sacrifice the process.
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Q. What is provoking this particular rant?
A. The swinging 3-2 strikeout in the 3rd inning, pictured above.
M's down, 3-0, this occurred:
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Q. What are hitters talking about when they say a batter "cheated" on a pitch?
A. Jay Buhner, the instant Smoak fired, groaned painfully. "You've got to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand first!", he cried.
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In racquetball, against a good player, you're tempted to take a backhand grip on the serve -- and to get your weight going in that direction as the server drops the ball into the serve.
IFF the server goes to your backhand, you look great. ... of course, if he serves forehand with any kind of placement, you look ridiculous.
Getting started early ---> into the backhand serve, because you're guessing, is "cheating" on the backhand.
The alternative: keep your weight centered until you READ the serve in the air (or, preferably, through the server's motion).
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Justin Smoak did not read the pitch in flight. He simply rolled the dice that he would receive a fastball for a strike, and gambled for the glory home run.
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Q. Was it likely that Smoak would get a fastball in the zone?
A. The two pictures above are of Smoak's at-bats in the 3rd and 5th.
Count the pitches (13). Count the fastballs (1). Note whether that fastball was in the strike zone or not.
The book on Smoak (and Cust) is that they are cheating fastball. Big time. The next time they get fastballs on 3-2 counts will be about 2014.
Jesse Litsch wasn't supposed to make it as obvious as he did, what the pitchers' recipe is. But now everybody in the world knows how the AL wants to get Smoak and Cust out.
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Q. Cust is doing the same?
A. With the added problemo, in Cust's case, that he is chasing the ball high.
Dr. D really notices high-away heat to LH hitters. His son's last at-bat in organized baseball was a high-away FB .... John just stuck out his bat, squared it up, and it went a mile over the LF's head for a grand slam. Last AB :- )
Cust hits homers to LF. We presume on high-away heat.
But Cust is chasing pitches wayyyyyy above the strike zone. The pitchers know that when a fastball arrives at that angle, Cust is swinging. Time and again they give it to him -- but chin high. Cust fouls them off.
There's that term "greed" again. He needs to make the pitcher get the ball down.
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Q. Is Smoak trying?
A. Note the second AB, pictured above. Smoak kept his hands back on an 82 offspeed, went with the pitch, and hit it 9' high off the left-center wall.
He's tryin'.
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Q. Milton Bradley?
A. Teddy's recipe for a slump: Get your pitch, stay quick, take the ball up the middle.
Watch a Bradley AB and you'll see he is doing precisely that, time after time.
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Q. Dr's Prognosis on Cust and Smoak?
A. Looks like Smoak is on the verge, because there are individual AB's in which he gets it right. Hey, Smoak's OPS+ is 129 right now, and we assure you that he hasn't even gotten started.
Cust, he's supposed to know how to hit by now. Ask him when he's going to stop overswinging.
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Milton Bradley, props to him. He's always been one of the brainiest hitters in the game and he is putting on a clinic right now.
His 128 OPS+ only looks like 280/350/450 in Safeco, but a 128 OPS+ is something the Mariners will take a million of.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Completely agree on Smoak, Doc.
I've always felt that Smoak needed to be an opposite-field hitter to be successful. Waiting for the ball will make him less of a pull/guess hitter. Thats just not going to work long term.
Smoak tracking that ball down deep into foul territory then firing a shot back to Olivo, knowing that a swift baserunner at 3rd might tag up...
Good, heads-up stuff there. He's doing some things wrong at the plate but he's got time to fix it. What he's doing right is very right, and he's a gamer in my book.
He saw fastball, hit fastball in his first AB, grounded out on a nasty breaking pitch (change I think) in his second after failing to swing at any of the inside pitches, then swung at the first pitch, a FB in the zone, in his third.
He's still working out his approach. Some nights he's too patient, some he's too greedy. I like watching him tinker. He's been a better hitter as a lefty so I'm stoked to see him doing so well from the right side. It means when he controls his greed from the left he's gonna do serious damage.
In the meantime, he's just making plays. I'll take it.
~G
...for Smoak as a lefty. Double off the wall and a no-doubt HR to the dead side of the ball field in cold weather when the ball shouldn't fly.
He's coming around on his greed problem. ;)
Smoak: .275/.388/.475/.863 with 5 doubles and 1 HR in 12 games, with 8BB and 9K in 40 ABs.
That's about what I'd want to see from him in a really good first run around the league, and I think he's just getting started. A-Gone posted a .862 OPS his first full season at age 24. Smoak should have a lower average but higher OBP, so that washes. If "all" we got was that, I'd be satisfied.
Cust is the guy who's just bombing right now. I didn't want Smoak to be forced to carry the offense, so adding Cust was at least a modicum of MOTO talent helping out...but he's being VERY unhelpful at the moment. I'm glad he can take a walk or we'd get less than nothing out of him the first 2 weeks of the season.
I don't want Bradley and Smoak to have to carry my offense, but beggars can't be choosers. The promising start by Smoak, even as he works through the bumps in the road, has to be encouraging.
HR by Ackley last night, btw - once he gets those wheels on the ground and gets up here we can start getting our offense aligned for the future.
~G
The Z-Crew's record at obtaining young talent ready to blossom seems to be very good: Smoak is looking better and better, Ackley continued to draw walks even as he hasn't been hitting, the haul from the Putz trade continues to be astounding (Guti, Vargas and B.Ryan via Cleto will be 12% of the MLB roster).
But, man, their record on bringing in supporting-cast vets is getting pretty ugly: Kotchman, Snell, Ja. Wilson for the most part, Figgins so far, and now Cust and maybe Olivo (not to mention Chris Ray, so I won't).
There's plenty of good reason to be optimistic about the Felix-Pineda-Smoak-Ackley-etc. core, and all the role-player vets except Figgins and Olivo expire at the end of '11, so they can clean house if they want to, but I'm a little concerned about who they'll bring in to fill those spots, given the record so far.
/cosign
I've always said that Jack is the guy I want rebuilding this thing from the farm up. He knows talent - underappreciated or properly valued (or even overvalued). I want him wheeling and dealing to get more unproven guys who can excel.
For some reason, though, his calls on the "proven" guys have been far more shaky. Aardsma was a great call, but nobody thought he could close - he was undervalued. He'd pitched 150 pretty unimpressive innings in the bigs with a 5ish ERA and Z brought him in to close? Those are stones.
OTOH, everybody knew what Chone Figgins was, and Jack paid a lot of money to move him out of position, both in the lineup and on the field. Maybe Casey Kotchman's 1600 big league ABs would also make him unproven and therefore a failure of prospect assessment, but you should know who most guys are after their 1500 ABs.
I dunno - I'm just not impressed by his ability to scout guys with track records. You'd think that would be easier than figuring out what minor leaguers are gonna do against better competition, but not in our case. That's gonna make it really tough to fill in around all the kids he's trying to produce for us if we can't buttress em with one- or two-year vets who can produce.
Cust and Olivo faceplanting to start the year isn't helping me with that assessment.
If Jack winds up getting the axe in a couple of years it's going to be because he can't get his money's worth from the expensive guys, not that the kids he's hand-picked have let him down.
IMO, anyway. May Bradley, Figgins, Olivo, Cust and co make me eat crow...and may next year's choices when we free up a few bucks in the budget be better.
~G
Gillick was an absolute genius in this area. Perhaps Jack misunderstands the importance of comfort level for middle of the road vets. For a player like Figgins or Jack Wilson, it took a couple of years for them to find their comfort zone in the bigs, and maybe their margin of error is just too small to shift them around in role.
Or maybe he just doesn't have a good sense of how disposition and role greatly influence success. When Figgins was signed, I thought he was an insurance policy for 3rd and 2nd, with the potential to be a super sub, a la Mark McLemore. He did play this role in Anaheim earlier in his career. But it is one thing to ask an established player to make a sacrifice in playing time and position preference when you are winning 90+ games a year (Figgins in Anaheim and McLemore in Seattle), entirely different on a team in hot pursuit of 100 losses.
My understanding of Arthur Rhodes improved performance in Seattle compared to his work in Baltimore, was that Gillick new the perfect role for Rhodes and made sure that was what he did in Seattle.
Three nails posts.
For some reason that dichotomy had never occurred, Spec. One to watch.
Good to see a fellow patron of the Gillick Art Museum, K. It's funny - I was just musing over this. If Zduriencik lost 100 games in 2011, then in 2012, the M's would be precisely at the point at which Gillick loves to take over ballclubs and "magically" turn them into juggernauts.
Pat was definitely a free-agent savant. He threw away draft picks and farm hands like trash, but he was a goldmine with the vets.
A combined Gillick/Zduriencik tandem would be too good to be true.
It's the part of his job that Jack has never had to do that's tripping him up. The part he's always done, and won awards doing, is still standing him in good stead.
The cherry-picking of free agents is causing him - and therefore us - some grief. His apparent plan? Build everything from within or via trade. Need relievers? We're growing our own. Infielders? Got that covered with Ackley, Smoak, and maybe Rendon shortly, with a second wave of Franklin and super-sub Seager coming in behind. Outfield? Traded for one and have no less than 4 options for LF in the next year+. Rotation? All minor trades and minor leaguers, baby.
That only works for so long. Eventually some of those guys wash out. Pitchers break, or become ineffective. Moderately-talented hitters bump up against their ceiling, then start to regress.
We don't have the draftpicks of the Rays - we're gonna get what should be one slam-dunk player and hopefully another Top 50 guy with our 2nd draftpick. We've nearly tapped out the upper minors once Ackley gets here.
It took the Rays most of forever to get relevant. The Brewers still have yet to manage relevancy, and that was WITH Zduriencik pumping an All-star a year onto the roster.
He's got to get the free-agent part fixed, or we're gonna hurt. This is Year Three of the overhaul, and I like what we've got in our rotation, for the most part, a couple of bullpen arms (but none of the journeymen), Smoak and Ackley. The lineup is a death knell and the bullpen is in disorder.
Can't fix all that internally. We need functional reinforcements at some point. And if Jack can't find em, he's not gonna be around to see Smoak and Ackley and Pineda become All-Stars.
Fingers crossed that the lightbulb goes on (or already has), because I really, REALLY want Jack to succeed. Cust and Olivo are certainly not washouts yet - FAR too early to hit the panic button. The nervous button and I are becoming pretty familiar with each other, though...
~G
Despite the stunning influx from the minors. Well, one other year at 83-79, to be precise.
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Ya, am a huge Capt Jack fan as well .... but objectively speaking, you guys is got a pernt about decisions on vets. Did the Brewers bring in many McLemores, Rhodeses, Boones or Oleruds? Was their 'success' solely based on cheap young stars?
It's not clear how much input Zduriencik had on those 25-man-roster calls, of course.
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Presuming that they could bring Gillick in as a nominal 'consultant' in the corporate structure.... but in reality, giving him the wheel on the 25-man and allowing Zduriencik free reign to work on talent development, now there you'd have a Ruth and Gehrig of a front office.
Not sure it works that way, though.
I just think he's pressing with runners on base. He seems to expand the zone with men on base and his performance supports that notion:
Bases empty OPS = 1.167
Men on base OPS = 0.524
The whole team has been terrible with men on base (OPS = 0.530 compared to OPS = 0.715 with the bases empty). This is the opposite of standard performance (last year in the AL bases empty OPS = 0.720, men on base OPS = 0.752), but a disturbing repeat of last year (M's bases empty OPS = 0.666, men on base OPS = 0.618). Do the M's press more than average, or are they so inept that the opponent just tosses it down the pike until some guys get on and then switches to pitching to the M's Achille's heal?
He's definitely relaxing into his swing a bit more now...
Would love to apologize for my adopt-a-player :) but when a single wins the game and he swings out of his shoes going for the upper deck, I for one am not filingnit in the Pressing folder :)...
Other complaint, yanking the head up lefty to follow the flight of the dinger, would argue that as annoying and not sympathetic...
But ya, six o one half a dozen of the other since a few big bombs would secure acceptance, which is a variation on the pressing theme....