Seattle 8, Jays 7 - Props and Slops

PROPS TO MICHAEL SAUNDERS, whose slash line right now gives a glimpse of SSI's UP projection for this player.

  • AVG .263
  • OBP .318
  • SLG .474
  • OPS+ 125
  • BB - 50 per 150 games
  • K - 100 per 150
  • 2B - 25 (or 30) per full season
  • HR - 25 (or 30) per full season
  • SB - 25 per full season
  • His runs are 75 and RBI are 125 per full season... whatever

Have always seen Saunders as a .260 hitter with 30 homers in the UP scenario.  Lo and behold, he's sporting a 265/320/475 slash line, with 25 SB's and a decently-solid 0.50 EYE.  A compelling visual.

That's Grady Sizemore minus 30-40 walks, and adjusted for Safeco (fewer doubles).

His UZR for 2011 isn't in yet; for 2010 it was +17 runs per 150 in center field.

.

SLOPS TO THE TEAMWIDE STATS, which have the M's at an 84 OPS+ and an 84 ERA.  Their runs for-and-against are 37:54 and their Pythag is 37-54, so it's not like they should be 5-and-5.

But the Three True Outcomes, for the M's and their enemies, is in the M's favor:

  • 41:76 EYE (0.60) with 0.5 homer rate (0.68 groundball ratio) - M's
  • 24:63 EYE (0.38) with an 0.8 homer rate (0.87 groundball ratio) - Enemy

If you were a pitcher, you'd be a much better one if you had the A's, Rangers, Indians and Jays TTO's than if you had that of the Mariners' hitters.

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PROPS TO BRADLEY, SMOAK, SAUNDERS and LANGERHANS who are "carrying" the M's offense thus far.  ;- )

All have OPS+'s around 130.  Langerhans' is the only one that can't feasibly last long.

.

SLOPS TO THE FOUR WEAK SLOTS IN THE LINEUP.  If it's me, I have Luis Rodriguez AND Adam Kennedy in the lineup, until Ackley gets here.

Ryan and Olivo max out your black holes all by themselves.  You can't afford any other glove-first players.  QED.

Luis Rodriguez should play SS for Ryan, and frequently.  This is a ballclub that is losing games 2 to 1.  It can't afford its paradigm paralysis over pretty defense.

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PROPS TO LROD's "TURNAROUND" AT-BAT.  Assuming that Michael Pineda detonates the Blue Jays tonight -- which is what SSI does assume -- the M's are back in the season, as it were.

Keep it goin'?  Only by maxing out the offensive firepower.  The absolute maximum automatic outs are already at C and SS.  The M's can't afford the luxury of Jack Wilson, end of story.

Smoak is kind of like an outboard motor juuuuust sounding like it's about to catch; Figgins might do so; get Adam Kennedy and/or LRod in there and who knows.

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PROPS TO FGUT's DELAYED RETURN - Wedge is in no hurry and it's a good thing; his only hitting is coming from LF, CF, and 1B.

The M's are married to Gutierrez, both (1) contractually and (2) via their love for UZR even in the face of 2-1 Friday night broken dates.  

So Wedge will have a decision to make, if Saunders is still hitting when Gutierrez returns:

  • Giving Saunders a good slab of Cust's and Gutierrez' AB's, or
  • Maybe a bunch more of these 2-1 defeats

Take yer pick.

.

We're witchoo,

Dr D


Comments

1

Complain about "four weak spots in the lineup"? -- you're supposed to be grateful.
Last year it was eight. :)

2

Right, with one of them targeted for termination in about a month.
I'll shut my yap now.

3

Saunders is becoming that versus-righties 5th or 6th hole bat the M's have needed, and that Doc correctly predicted.  When Guti is healthy it will be intereting to see how things roll out.  May well see Cust sitting some to begin with, with Bradley getting some DH time.  But Saunders still looks lost vs lefties.  Earl would have platooned him.  He's only 24, much could happen...but that career .546 OPS vs. lefties is haunting.
Here's to improvement! Or at least, here's to the M's finding the RH hitting complement.
Langerhans, with a career high of 8 homers, has three hits, two of them taters.  He has four walks (his one real strength)...all of them in one game.  Weird.  His stock is up, sell now.
 

4

It is clear to everyone involved that the M's are holding out on the fans to justify the Brendan Ryan trade.  Our best shortstop is at 2nd, and our best 2nd baseman is at AAA.  If this is going to be an entirely OBP driven and weak slugging team, then the M's should be extra studious about eliminating the weak links in the batting order.
We don't expect Ackley to be a MOTO hitter right out of the gate, but he is an on base machine, who adds to the cumulative effect of what the Mariners are trying to build here.  If he were to be promoted, and Ryan benched, then there would be one hole plugged, and the all walk middle of the order would add a man to the team.
 If an all world slugging team is a "murderer's row" then what is an all world OBP team?  How about "IRS auditor's row"? Like an IRS auditor, the 2011 Mariners are, or could be, irritating to opposing pitchers, they take up a lot of their time, they cause a lot of worry, and they give out the occasional penalty for mistakes.

5
ghost's picture

Ride it while he's got it...he should start every day until he goes 0 for 20 or something.

6

Dustin Ackley, AAA: .167/.310/.167/.477, 5 walks, 5 Ks
Brendan Ryan, MLB: .167/.300/.208/.508, 4 walks, 5 Ks
You're getting 2011 Dustin Ackley in the bigs already with Ryan.  Ryan usually has a decent OBP, and Jack Wilson is not long for this team.  Ryan's gonna be here this year and next.  He works his ABs, he runs the bases well, and he scores. 
Just be patient with Ackley.  He'll get here.  Don't fault Ryan for his .200 BABIP.  His approach isn't terrible even if his results have been bad so far.
It happens.  Let Ackley grow and wait a couple months, and let Ryan play.  Adam Moore is apparently out for the year, so in that sense it's possible half a black hole is gone already, unfortunately.  Jerking the roster around after 10 games isn't a good plan, IMO.  Get the bench guys some ABs and let the talent shake out.  We need to know what we have, and what we still need to get.  Ackley's already got his name in the 2011 starting lineup barring some bizarre occurance.  If Ryan is so bad that he needs to not have his name there, this would be a good year to find that out.
~G

7

He's on quite a roll.
As mentioned before, he's got a MOTO swing... he's hitting his HR's against lefties... can't imagine what happens to career tomata cans who suddenly go Roy Hobbs like this.
's worth a Simoleon, though.

8

How long till Ackley goes on a roll, do we figure here, G?   Four games?  Eight?
Gotta take ST and the AFL into consideration along with the slow week in the PCL....

9

It's not like I didn't warn everyone.
Langerhans has looked like this before.
And two weeks from now, he'll look like Figgins.
The thing that is going to be truly maddening about the two-true-outcomes lineup (K or BB), is that high K hitters (Olivo, Smoak, Cust, Bradley, Saunders, Langerhans, Guti) tend to be streaky.
Ms fans were fed a long line of quick-twictch-swing-at-anything-and-put-it-in-play guys.  Those guys tend to be less streaky - (and the streaks are generally ones that are viewed as "luck", based on BABIP flukiness).
When a 130-K/year hitter is hot - he hits 1300 and doesn't miss much of anything.  When he's cold, he hits .400 and doesn't make contact with much of anything.
But, if a streak hitter STARTS hot, (Guti last year), then the slump isn't as noticeable until it lingers.  If a guy slumps early, then the hot streak is more readily IDed as just a streak and not who the hitter *IS*.
Figgins is something of a tweener.  Ideally, your pure OBP machines tend to generate fewer than 100 Ks.  So, they tend to be less streaky - appear more reliable - and get the BABIP flukiness wave offs. 
Figgins fans too much for a pure OBP machine, which is why he's a poor fit for leading off, (the high for his profile K rate makes him too inconsistent compared to your typical leadoff types).
And I think his high K-rate is a sign of his inate streakiness - and explains why he's had such up and down seasonal results.  He's a "comfort" hitter ... when he gets in a zone, he can relax into a streak and keep it running for quite awhile.  But, when he gets tight, he can also extend the bad spells. 
The biggest flaw with the 2011 Ms?  I'd say it is that they have ended up with too many "mentally weak" hitters.  I'd classify Olivo, Bradley, Figgins and maybe Cust as Kotchmanesque in terms of ability to handle adversity.  They don't.  That's not exactly the ideal collection of veterans to develop your youth behind.  (And given the latest with Jack Wilson - I'm wondering about him, too).
I'd hate to see Langerhans go, because he's probably an ideal guy to pair with Saunders to help the kid maximize his potential.  But, ultimately, Langerhans is a decent #4 OF.
 

10

Is anything more than 100 considered high-K?
Figgins for his career strikes out once every 5.8 ABs.  Edgar Martinez struck out every 6.0, and he wasn't exactly Adam Dunn at the plate.  I get that he wasn't a leadoff hitter, but he was an on-base machine.  There are actually very few hitters who have high walks (making them on-base marvels) with really low Ks.  Albert Pujols is one, but I wouldn't compare Chone to him.
Sure, Figgins is not Dustin Pedroia (11.7) or Ichiro (10.0), but they're different hitters.  They only walk 50 times a year too (though pedroia's game seems to be changing.  Ichiro's is timeless).
Chone takes his 65, 70 walks a year instead of 50 and strikes out a hundred times instead of 75.  I dunno that I would consider that form of tradeoff to be outside the norm.  A few more walks for a few more Ks isn't really any streakier than relying on BABIP to make sure all your hits fall in instead of finding gloves. 
Not everybody can BABIP .350 like Ichiro, and when the bad luck hits then the guys who won't take a walk to get on base are toast. 
I did have concerns about mental toughness coming into this season, though, and the really tough start to the season where we're just grinding out at-bats has turned me around on it a little bit.  Except for Wilson - I cannot believe he took himself out of that game, and it's something that would get him off my team STAT.
Of course, Chone's little displays during last year would do the same.  I'd have dumped him for a bucket of balls in the offseason, and that didn't happen.  Just hoping he gets hot and stays that way for a couple months so we can ditch him for two buckets of balls at the deadline and call it good.
Bradley has started well, so maybe he can keep his screws in place for most of the season.  Cust has been pretty abysmal, but it's early; it's not like it's the first time he's struggled or had to overcome.  Olivo is what we've got - I don't know that I'd consider him mentally weak so much as a limited bat.  I think he's overcome his mental weakness with his success in KC and CO. 
Wilson and Figgins need to go.  The former is far easier to accomplish than the latter, but right now most of the lineup has its nose to the grindstone and is trying as hard as they know how not to give away too many at-bats.  If they can stop screwing up in the field and a few hits drop in we might not be terrible.
Control those mental lapses, ditch the quitters, and see if we can get a diamond-hard core of tough players to put talent around. And glue Bradley's screws in tight - we can't afford for him to swan-dive back into insanity right now.
~G

11

At least in the pros.  His first year (AFL) he was atrocious.  Too long a layoff took it out of him.  Okay, so his first month in AA?  Atrocious.  He thought he might never hit again.  Hit .300 in the months that followed, but that first month was terrible.
And now he's a week in and putting up terrible numbers at AAA.  I just think he starts slow. If he doesn't hit for a couple more weeks then I'll really believe it. 
And I'll also believe that he'll come around and be the .300/.400/.450 hitter I know he is. The rubber just takes a minute to hit the road, apparently.
All the more reason for him not to hit the bigs until he's got up a good cruising speed for merging into that kind of traffic.
~G

12

Theory here would be that since both lack weight, they both require leverage (and a long swing) in order to drive the ball.
Probably both need to see the ball that little tick earlier in order to make their games work, and to drive pitches that are arriving at varying speeds?
..........
You know and I know that Ackley's not coming up without being on a .400+ roll at the time, so the slow start that you point out is probably to the M's advantage.  Maybe Ack won't be quite so annoyed with the M's over the whole thing.

13

I don't think Chone is a high-K hitter.
I think Chone is a high-K hitter "for a lead-off OBP guy".
The key difference being Chone has ZERO power threat of any kind - and for guys with zilch power, he has a high K-rate.  Edgar slugged .500 -- chone comes in at .375.
Most of the guys I noted are 120 and up -- (Bradley is hard to view, because his PT has been so erratic).
Chone isn't at that level (raw) -- but the complete lack of power makes me think that he will FEEL just as streaky -- but the "hot spells" won't register on the conciousness, due to the lack of power.  And, of course, if you're slugging .410 when you're hot, you really aren't as productive as the guy slugging .600 when he's hot, even if your OBPs are similar.
 

14

Simply in the sense that you've been crystal-clear about him running extra hot and extra cold...
Starting to triangulate the lad a bit myself, beginning with the fact that his swing is so sweet that it is easy for him to hit no-doubt HR's once he connects...
You're thinking that he PRESSES to cause the bad streaks? ... any guesses, then, as to whether his getting older would help him to relax into more of a method?

15

... for me, is that (basically) all hitters choose whether to 'get the pitcher early in the count' or whether to work the count.
Guys who accept deep counts (or, those who miss their first swings a lot) are going to have higher K and higher BB to go along with them.
There's nothing fundamentally better about 50:30 strikeouts and walks vs 100:50.  The second guy is just starting off with a 1-1 count.

16

The benefit of a hot Chone Figgins is a blistering single.  Whoopee.  The man's only even had 30 doubles once, and that's with 600 ABs a year to work with.  Triples make up some of the difference, but since his first couple of years they haven't made up enough.
Which is why he bats leadoff - Figgins has a .090 ISO and Ichiro has a .098. 
I dunno how many singles-only leadoff hitters we need, but I'd sure like someone who can knock in a run or two.
Devoting what, 27 million a year to 2 leadoff positions hurts us just a bit.  The feeling of streakiness just makes it worse. ;)
~G

17

I don't think it's about pressing.
I think he'll do better "long term", playing full time.  But, I think most players will perform better playing 90% of games than 30% of games.
I think a huge (and mostly ignored) portion of hitting is simply "when do you pick the ball up?"
I think ALL players work in a personal range in that regard.  Bonds, Pujols ... these guys are otherworldly.  Most guys are more pedestrian.  But, ALL guys have good weeks and bad weeks.
Langerhans, when he's picking up the ball well, has a sweet swing that "stings" the ball with little effort.  When he picks up the ball late - he'll swing late (fouls or swinging strikes) -- and/or, he'll be forced to alter his swing to make any contact (popups and ground outs).
Langerhans' swing is sweet.  His ability to alter the bat plane is NOT.  So, his final profile is feast and famine.  When he sees the ball late - he has a slider speed bat.  When he sees it early - he looks like a .900 OPS guy.  In fact, during those spells, he *IS* a .900 OPS guy.
But, when you have a guy who hits .900 half the time and .500 half the time ... you have a .700 hitter.

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