Mike Wilson: the Plot Thickens

Sez the scout, probably in response to SSI chatter:  "Wilson can't hit good velocity and is a DH."

Thanks for passing on the clipboard snip there, Coug.

.

=== PRO ===

1.  This might be true.  If so, it would explain a lot .... except why he's in the org.

The original question is Bill James'.  If a guy is going to slug .700 and then you're going to cut him, what was your idea?  To prove that he couldn't play?

.

2.  Nobody is "fascinated" with Mike Wilson.  He would be a desperate plea for help.  If you're going to dip into AAA to help the offense, Wilson is the only guy there.  That's why we're talking about him.

Everybody got that?  NOBODY THINKS MIKE WILSON IS JOSE GUILLEN.

.

3.  Wilson being an ex-football player, I have no trouble imagining that good pitches get him out, that he is a "mistake hitter."  This sounds very feasible.

.

4.  The M's would need a 40-man move.  True dat.  (ML ballclubs also need to be able to dip into AAA as need arises.)

.

=== CON ===

1.  "Can't hit good velocity and can't play LF."  This is Jack Zduriencik's and Eric Wedge's opinion, or the scout's?

.

2.  Why would Wilson be the #26 man, the almost-Mariner, twice, if he's an obvious piece of garbage (a DH who can't hit)?

.

3.  Doesn't that sound a bit extreme, "He is a DH" if they're playing him in CF?

If a guy is playing a little CF, doesn't that kind of imply that he could catch some fly balls for you in LF?   It's not like they're going to put Milton Bradley in CF.

.

4.  There are many people in the majors who can't hit 95 mph pitches, including, historically, Ryan Langerhans.  

Bo Jackson was the ultimate poster boy for crushing 89 mph fastballs and whiffing on 93.  I haven't seen Milton Bradley catch up to a good fastball yet this year, have you?  93 and up, he swings right through it.

.

The idea is to match such players to pitchers who don't throw 95, of which there are a few in the majors, including 3 of the M's 5 starters, for example.

There are plenty of ML regulars who make their living off mediocre fastballs.  Supposing you are right:  why hold Wilson to a standard you don't hold Milton Bradley to?

.

5.  The scout realizes, I trust, that there are almost as many good FB's in AAA as there are in the AL?  

AAA hitters don't fail in the majors because they suddenly see "good velocity."  They fail in the majors because pitchers are able to precisely hit the holes in their swings.

If Wilson can't hit a fastball, why does he crush PCL pitching?  They got fastballs there.

.

6.  If Wilson is a writeoff, that still doesn't explain why he hangs around, why they bear with his constant injuries, and so forth.  Their OF is jammed; they don't need org-filler players at Cheney.

?

.

Your friend,

Dr D

.

Comments

1

But he can certainly play left and hit southpaws (who typically do not have good velocity). The 40-man thing isn't an issue because you can just cut Chris Ray.

2
ghost's picture

If you do call up Wilson...it would have to be as a platoon mate for Saunders, not a full time option in LF.  Once Guti is healthy it solves a bunch of problems...lets Saunders/Wilson play left, Bradley can DH and Guti can play center...you can even keep Langerhans to be your back-up LF/CF.

3

These conversations are the reason I love SSI. Nothing better than having a good ole fashion difference of opinion and keeping it civil. Jefe... you da man.
The answer I have always gotten on Mike Wilson is that he's a good guy and the organization likes him personally. He also seems to be a good influence on the younger guys in the system. Every organization in baseball has about a dozen guys who stay in the system not for what they do on the field, but for the job they do mentoring younger players.
1) I don't think they are keeping him around because of his onfield contributions.
2) Wilson had two great springs in Arizona and kept in the hunt for a roster spot until the final days of camp and was edged out... twice.
In retrospect, you have to wonder how close Wilson really was to making the team. Maybe they were trying to hype him up to raise his trade value?
Regardless, once he was down in the minors he never sniffed the bigs during the season and wasn't even able to get himself a cup of coffee in September. Again, the actions of the organization tells us a lot about it's opinion of Wilson. I don't think it would have been difficult to get this guy some PA's in Seattle the past several years if they thought he had a future, even as a platoon bat.
3. Actually, with Tacoma's current roster, Milton Bradley would be the guy you would pencil in at CF if you needed to managed them in a game that meant anything.
Current OF:Mike CarpCarlos PegueroMike WilsonMatt Tuiasosopo
Wilson is listed as 6'2" 245. That's big. Maybe he's overstating his case but guys his size are rarely above average defensive outfielders. I think Wilson is playing CF out of organizational necessity.
4) Milton Bradley doesn't rip the mid 90's fastball over the fence but he can still work the walk, smoke a single and generally give you a quality MLB at bat of a pitcher who can throw you one. Or to put it another way, would you be interested in Ryan Langerhans if he was a below average LF defender and right handed?
5) I think the big difference between AAA and major league pitching is a combination of command and velocity on the fastball. In the post steroid era, very few starters routinely exceed 95 on the gun. Those who can end up in the majors very quickly.
Looking at the Rainiers pitching staff, none of these pitchers belong in the bigs at this moment. Mistake hitters like Wilson feast on pitching like this, but when he gets to the bigs he will see fewer mistakes.
Just a nice little back and forth.

4

Wilson was 2-5 last night with a double and 3 ribbies.  Ho hum......
Hey guys, unless their name is Pujols or Bautista or Wright or Ichiro (add the appropriate names here) ALL major leaguers are mistake hitters!  That's the point.  Being able to clobber mistakes makes you a MLB hitter.  NOBODY is clobbering Pineda or Felix or Cliff Lee when they are spotting their best stuff.
MLB pitchers that stay MLB pitchers for a long time do so because they don't make many mistakes that guys like Jack Cust can punish.  Jack Cust loses his MLB value when he can no longer clobber those relative mistakes.
Certainly a great pitcher gets beat once in a while or gives up a HR on a 97 mph fast ball on the inside black, but (the point being) that doesn't happen very often.
All MLB pitchers make mistakes. Good ones just don't do it as often. Great ones do it seldomly and generally have the stuff to survive those mistakes.
Great MLB hitters knock the snot out of mistakes AND manage to get some damage in on good pitches, too.  Occassional, being the operative word. 
Good MLB hitters punish a pitchers mistakes and USUALLY go back to the dugout on a pitchers great stuff.
Replacement level players capitalize on the mistakes SOMETIMES AND they almost never manage to get a hit against a 97 MPH Pineda heater on the inside black.
Crappy hitters rarely hit the mistakes and don't have an ice cube's chance against Cliff Lee's "A" pitch.
Can Mike Wilson hit MLB mistakes?  Can he hit the centered 93 MPH fastball?  Can he hit the curve up? (And he will see 2 or 3 or 4 of those pitches every nght)  His track record suggests that he can clobber those mistakes that are thrown by guys that are just about to be MLB pitchers (and who will be, just as soon as they make fewer mistakes).
Wilson will get plenty of mistakes to hit in the majors, just like everybody else does.  He will get fewer than he gets in Tacoma, however....this is true.
The record suggests he will do just fine against those mistakes.
He isn't going to be Pujols or Bautista or Wright or Ichiro but he will be OK at the MLB level, given some time to get over the jitters. Is he going to make us forget Edgar?  Ha!  But were he to be on the roster today, I doubt we would be longing for the good old days of Ryan Langerhans and Jeremy Reed.
 

5

Y'know, when I read that, I mentally flashed on the scene from Shawshank where Andy asks the warden, "How can you be so obtuse?"  -- (and I suspect if that were my response here, I'd deservingly end up in the internet hot box for a month).  :)
But ... the simple truth is that 90% of all minor leaguers have zero chance to make the majors.  And the coaches understand that - (barring being handed a ring from a purple alien) - that isn't ever going to change for most of them.  BUT, you cannot play a baseball game with the 4 guys you think can make.  Every level of the minors has a 25 man roster.  You have all those extra guys, because ... well, you HAVE to.
So, why not toss Mike Wilson when you believe he'll never make it?  Well, because their is absolutely nobody else in the organization ready to take his roster spot in AAA ... yet. 
The fact they brought up Peguero when Smoak was out of the lineup "suggests" the club is higher on Peguero actually making it.  But, a rash of injuries might eventually "force" the club to bring Wilson up and give him a chance some day.  Long shot ... but it happens.  And every now and then such an occurrence leads to unexpected results and a recalibration of a player.
As noted - the lack of September ABs for Wilson suggests the club has him firmly pegged as a AAA player, and they don't think they need to see him against better competition.
But, in the end, each team at each level has to put 9 guys on the field each game, and one of them has to a SS and one has to be a 2B, etc ... and most have no real shot at the Show.  You hold onto them up to the point that you do have enough talent behind them that they are costing somebody how "might" make it playing time.  Based on my assessment of the Ms farm at the moment - Wilson isn't likely to be forced out any time soon.

6

Thath high-quality H20.
The Langerhans - defense - LH is a tough argument to beat.  If that's what Wilson is, of course he isn't going to have a career.

7

whose value is at org level .... they like to win in the minor leagues... :cpoints: San-man...
What would be unusual would be for a guy to be at the top level, fringe ML, over a series of years, burn up ST audition time ....... and never get the chance...
*that* doesn't happen as often as the "org level" busher...

9

Great post, Grump!  I laughed. Your's may be the post of the day.
I'm not trying to be an idiotic bore.....I suppose I may sound of one!
But for a team missing somebody who can thump a bit, I would like to see a guy who might just do that get a shot. Right now Wilson is clearly the class of the Tacoma bats.  And unless we completely have a AAA roster of NOBODY (minus Ackley) who has a ML hitting skill set (BTW,I like Peguero, too) then Wilson won't embarrass himself if up.
Interestingly, I wonder if Wilson had not been on the DL if he would have been moved to the 40-Man and then called up when Peguero was.
THAT may have been his shot.  Too bad.
OK...Thanks for indulging me, I promise to let it rest.  Really.  Pinky swear. 
Yah, that's the ticket.
moe
 

12

It's why did Mike Wilson re-sign with us in the offseason as a minor league free agent? 
http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/mariners_re_sign_three_minor_leag...
His contract expired after 2010, and he knew we didn't think he was big-league material or we would have batted him higher than 8th.
I get why the Ms might want him around, but why would he want to be here where half the team would have to come down with polio for him to get a shot to play in the bigs?
That's what confuses me.
~G

13

I'm not advocating a call up.  I promise.  Not stating opinion.  I promise. Me and Joe Friday:  Just the facts, Maam.
2-4 last night, with a homer.
3-5 tonight, with a homer.
Currently hitting .378
Guti was 1-4 as a DH in his first night back.

14

I think even Wilson has accepted that he isn't a major leaguer but it seems like he likes the organization and gets paid to play the game he loves. I wonder if he has a future in coaching.

17
ghost's picture

We get it...you like Wilson...and hey...I might like him more than I like Langerhans at this point. LOL Actually with an outfield that currently consists of Saunders (LH), Bradley (SH better RH), Ichiro (LH), and Langerhans (plays like a SH)...we could probably use a big right handed hitter anyway to platoon with Saunders when Guti gets back...but probably not before that because Saunders needs Langerhans to cover him in CF against lefties.
The line-up looks a lot better with Wilson/Saunders platooning in LF, Bradley DHing, Guti in CF and Langerhans DFA'd.

18

The article and comments here were a bit of a roundtable, but the first cyber-noodle on Wilson was this April 28th shtick.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.