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How are Franklin and Triunfel looking at SS? Our future lineups look a lot sweeter if one of them can stick there
Is Little Nicky even better than we thought? . . . and other minors stuff
Everybody fell in love with Nick Franklin last year, and with good reason. He demolished the low-A Midwest League as a 19-year-old barely out of high school, ripping out 52 XBH, including 23 HR. This from a guy who was supposed to be a "Bloomquist"/gym-rat/grinder type.
But there were a few chinks in the armor: the main one being his struggles vs. LHP while batting from the right side (paltry .149/.208/.246 slash line); the other being a 24% strikeout rate and 0.41 eye ratio (BB/K), which are tolerable, but not ideal.
In 2011, the first problem is still evident (.214/.313/.214), and the calls for him to dump switch-hitting will probably continue.
On the other hand, the latter problem seems to be moving in a very positive direction. It's only 15 games, but Franklin's K% has dropped from 24.0% to 21.8%. More importantly, his BB% has jumped from 8.7% to 14.7%. The result is an eye ratio of 0.83, which is not only a huge improvement over last year, but actually ranks him second to only Rich Poythress among the elite hitters in the organization.
In other words, so far anyway, his eye ratio is higher than Dustin Ackley's (0.83 to 0.80).
Even more to the point, Franklin struggled his first three games, going 0-for-12 with 0 BB and 4 K. Since kicking it into gear on 4/12, Franklin is 16-for-43 (.372) with 10 BB and 8 K (1.25 eye).
He's not yet on the HR pace of last year, but he does have 6 XBH (3 dbl, 2 tpl, 1 HR) and a .473 SLG (he slugged .485 last year with the 23 HR). I don't doubt that the HR swing will still be there if he keeps hitting.
Anyway, it's encouraging to see improvement from a prospect of his calibre, especially when he's one of the youngest guys in his league.
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I've trained myself to look at a handful of things regarding prospects: extra-base hits, walks, eye, OPS and relative age to level. For example, Denny Almonte is having a great start at High Desert, but he only has 1 BB vs. 22 K. So his 12 XBH and 1.029 OPS look great, but I can't really give him props with his BB nonexistent and eye ratio so terrible.
Based on that approach, there are two other guys in addition to Franklin that are off to solid starts: Rich Poythress and the almost-forgotten Carlos Triunfel.
Poythress is only hitting .255, but beneath that are excellent numbers across the board: 7 XBH (5 dbl, 2 HR), 13 BB, 12 K, .879 OPS. His BA is limited by a .237 BABIP. He has the most walks and the best eye ratio of the top hitters (1.08). He's near the top of the org in all four categories (XBH, BB, EYE, OPS). At 23 in AA, he's not young for his level, but he's not out of line.
Triunfel is back to showing the kind of numbers that made him a potential star as a teenager, except, with 6 doubles and 2 HR, he's starting to show up in the SLG department as well. Triunfel's 8 XBH are 4th-best in the org and contribute to a strong .283/.338/.483 line that mirrors his pre-injury line as an 18-year-old at High Desert (.287/.336/.406) except for a boost in SLG. He's never going to walk a ton, but he keeps the K% down, too, so his eye ratio of 0.57 (4 BB/7 K) matches the 0.58 he had in High Desert (30 BB/52K). The encouraging thing is some power showing up in Jackson that didn't show up in the pinball-quality Cal League. He's on pace for something like 40 doubles, which is the kind of bat we were hoping for. In the other categories, he's putting up almost exactly what he was able to do before the injury and the tough comeback year in 2010.
I'm also encouraged by the progress of Daniel Carroll in High Desert, who has 7 XBH and 12 BB, but his numbers appear inflated by a .413 BABIP. Nevertheless, the spike in walks is encouraging (he has as many as Ackley and just one less than Poythress), and he'll be worth following to see if he's turning a corner, since he's never had those kind of numbers before.
Comments
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Two picks made me screaming mad at draft time. One of em wasn't even Clement - I was baffled but not actively angry. And Brandon Morrow was defensible in some ways even though he wasn't the pitcher I wanted.
Two picks, neither one of em especially high, just bugged me. When we took Mike "I'm a soccer player" Garciaparra like a pick before David Wright went off the board, I was pissed.
And when we drafted Denny Almonte right in front of Mike Effing Stanton. In both cases we were looking for teen bats with upside, and in both cases we whiffed so hard it was blatantly apparent AT THE TIME.
Yes, Stanton had swing issues as a young player. So did Almonte. Difference is Stanton has fixed his, and Almonte never will.
Danny Carroll I actually liked in that draft, taken right after Almonte. He's just had the worst luck ever. Breaking his wrist on the same day in consecutive years is brutal. If he can actually take the field long enough to learn how to take walks and recognize pitches to cut Ks, he could be a decent CF prospect.
It's a long shot, but it's possible.
As for Nick, I'm glad to see him adding walks to his repertoire. It can only help. They're playing him some at 2B, but I think he stays at SS.
Triunfel has the Jose Lopez body, so I think 2B is his final position, but it's nice that he's upping his trade value - I want him to keep doing that all season long.
And it's possible he stays at short, I guess - for a team that isn't as crazy about defense as ours.
Poythress is tradebait too with Smoak manning first base and DH not a likely position for a rookie. We could move him to LF, but I'm not holding my breath. Rich could be decent at first. I think his average won't be as high as it has been (and not as bad as it's started out this year) but he's finally starting to walk like I thought he should and that'll help his final numbers as well as his prospect status.
Thanks for the rundown, Spec - there's a long way to go in this season, and there have been a lot of struggling prospects, but it's nice to know some of them are out of the gate in front of the pack.
~G
3
http://prospectinsider.com/view/prospect-power-sheet/
He's bullish on both of them sticking at SS. Triunfel is faster and more agile than Jose Lopez, he says. And Triunfel has a great arm. Problem has been sloppiness and fundamental mistakes, I believe, so maturity could help that. Triunfel has played all 15 of his starts at SS with 1 error.
My understanding is that Franklin generally makes all the plays, but doesn't dazzle at anything. He does have 3 errors in 12 games at short so far (2 games at 2b, 1 at DH).
If things continue, I expect both will move up a level before too much longer, and we can get a better sense of what we have.
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Any sleepers you like that could be around at that point?
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Charlie Tilson comes to mind as a Mariners sort of pick: Good tools but not jaw-dropping, non-baseball factory high school in an under-served state, does everything well, huge makeup bonuses. In other words, lots more to go get in his potential and the personality to get it.
I could see us taking him if he's there in the 2nd, definitely - he's in the Littlewood / Franklin mold (hopefully more of Franklin).
Swing video: http://baseballbeginnings.com/2011/04/03/charles-tilson-video#more-11846
Nice rundown of him:
http://www.prepbaseballreport.com/News/tabid/478/ctl/ArticleView/mid/261...
I could also see us taking a Northwest arm - Tyler Anderson from Oregon could be available there (though I think he's climbing a bit right now, it may not stay that way). He's got a nasty slider and is all limbs comin at you as a lefty, so I dunno - he might have trouble with a repeatable delivery. I haven't seen enough of him on consecutive days to hazard a guess. But guys swing stupidly through his FB and when guys are flailing with metal it's usually an indicator that it's either hard to pick up, has surprising movement, or is just smoke. The FB is a low 90s type of cheese, so I think the delivery contributes to late pickup and it kinda tails through the zone.
The plethora of arms this year is gonna make some interesting arms slip, and Anderson could be one of em being up here in the NW. We should have some local scouts who've seen him extensively, though...right?
Stats: 6-1, 1.55 ERA in 75.2 IP, 45 hits, 84K/21BB.
Josh Osich is an Oregon State pitcher I wouldn't mind either. He was a no-doubt first rounder before he blew his arm out, but he's back pitching again and getting his repertoire back. IMO he should be a starter and he's been doing that this year, but he's building his arm back up. His advanced secondary pitches is what made him attractive last year. He's a lefty so he doesn't need Gerrit Cole's velocity to be interesting, but he can throw mid-90s which is really intriguing from that side. I still don't think he's throwing his nasty slurve yet in his recovery, and his changeup is fizzing in and out - it's like a cut-forkball action on it, but he seemed to have better touch with it last year. Which means it's mostly fastballs to build his arm up and get stronger through the season.
He's already had his TJ surgery and his velocity's back, so you figure he should be good to go for several more years with the new ligament. He already showed the polish in his breaking and offspeed stuff in 2009, so if he can get it back he's a first round talent. I dunno if you risk your second rounder on that bet, but I find him intriguing.
Stats: 5-1, 3.30 ERA in 46.1 IP, 39 hits, 45K/21BB. Not impressive...but that's why it's a scouting call if you make it.
There's gonna be a good player there, for sure. I just hope we get him. :) 6 weeks til draft time.
~G
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I really hope that Andrew Susac / Oregon State C - top 3 catcher in this draft falls to us at 62 since he has missed several games with a couple minor injuries this year
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Never draft a catcher unless he's Joe Mauer.
Catchers take too long to develop, so even if you get a good one, you end up trading him to the Red Sox for Healthcliff Slocumb and their injury hazards limit their ability to max out their hitting potential. Never draft a catcher until at least round 20 and acquire your catchers in trades and via free agency instead. At least that's how I see it...the return on investment isn't good enough to merit the risk.
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Susac broke his Hamate bone and had surgry, he is hoping to be back by the end of the Pac-10 season and for post season. Selfishly as a big Beaver fan, I hope he spurns the Yankees out of the first round or something :)
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G,
What do you think of Sam Gaviglio, the Beavers Friday night starter??? He is actually the team ace not Osich, but more in the Maddux mold. Great command, 4 very good pitches, great pitchability. He pretty much picks his best three pitches on any given day and uses a 33/33/33 mix and rarely centers a picth. sits 90-01 with the fastball and has a curve slider and change and like I said has very good command of all of them. He was injured last year so just look at his freshamn year and this one. Stats so far this year:
ERA: 1.68
3 complete games (he is a horse)
76 k's
12 walks
1 HR in 75 innings
His last start was his worst by far, but he was worked hard in the two previous. He carried a 40+ inning shutout streak earlier in the year. I know most scouts drool over the big arm but I would take Sam any day over Osich, who is no slouch himself. A Lefty with true 95-97 heat. Even this year after TJ. Exclusively throwing the change right now, not sure if it is to save the elbow this soon after surgry or if it is because he doesnt have the feel for the breaking pitch yet, but he still gets a ton of swings and misses even just with the 2 pitch repitoire.
And it is really too bad that Susac went down, that guy is the real deal, extremely talented, a PLUS defensive catcher and he will be a 3 hitter in the major leagues, good average, good power, good discipline. Funny you should mention Mauer, Matt, because that is who he reminds me of! Of course I am just a homer Beaver fan :)
Anyways, G, Spec, anyone else, thoughts on SammyG? He probably isn't a first round guy but if he was sitting around in the second round I would think long and hard, and definitely if he is still around in the third.
Does being northwest guys help these guys in regards to blooming as prospects in Tacoma and Seattle?
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Looks like he was slotted more as a 3rd-rounder in March, but his 2011 numbers are so good that he's got to be rising. Looks like he struggled with injuries in 2010. #62 might not be a bad spot for him or Osich. A little scouting info on Gaviglio at the end of this article: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2011/03/three-strikes-week-f...
"All things being equal" I think there's a little bit of marketing that can creep into the decision-making and lead a team to take a guy from their home region when it makes sense.
(Such as the Royals being more likely to use a top-5 pick on Bubba Starling than the Orioles, in my mind, anyway.)
So one of the Beaver arms could be a fit there.
11
I find it fascinating that there are two Mavericks tied for 2nd in the league in walks at this point in the season. Not just that we have two, but who those two are:
Nick Franklin and Danny Carroll.
BB:K eye and K:AB zone control:
Franklin, 2010: .41 and 4.2
Franklin, 2011: 1.07 and 4.3
Carroll, 2010: .22 and 3.2
Carroll, 2011: .70 and 3.5
Franklin has 28% of his walks for 2010 through 13% of the 2011 games. Caroll has 67% (!) in 21% of his comparable season.
One rule of thumb I use for guys who strike out a lot in the low minors is what their walk totals look like. If a guy strikes out like crazy and never walks, then he's either got a huge pitch recognition problem or a huge gaping wound in his swing. Or both.
Cue Mario Martinez, Sams, Halman, Almonte et al. Carroll's Ks, like theirs, are basically unsustainable. He's got to improve them in order to make the bigs.
Franklin isn't as bad, but he's borderline. Anything around 4 is iffy, as advanced scouting, better pitching, hot and cold zone charts etc. are gonna reveal all the weaknesses that minor league pitching couldn't exploit as well.
Franklin's at 4 and change, so he's hanging in there. Carroll is below water-line, IMO.
But if you're GOING to strike out a lot, then it should be because you're taking lots of pitches and getting on base to compensate. Plus, when a guy who didn't walk starts walking it means he's executing a plan at the plate. Step one to reducing Ks is normally to stop swinging at things outside the zone, and the walks double.
Step two is reduced Ks. Step 3 is driving the ball with power because all the pitches you're swinging at are in the zone now.
You can do it the other way if your problem was a hole in your swing that you're closing - then Ks may drop first, because you were swinging and missing at balls IN the zone.
Or if your power goes up dramatically maybe your walks improve because people quit challenging you.
Franklin had HUGE power last year. It wasn't a shock to people in the 2nd half, but his walk rate didn't go up. Maybe the Cal Leaguers are more scared of him than the MWL guys were...
But I think we're at the next stage of "I plan to be an All-Star" Franklin's growth at the plate. Carroll? Not as sure, but I do like the uptick.
But if Franklin can keep taking free bases his value goes from early Khalil Greene or Stephen Drew (which would be excellent at SS for us) to something more. It also helps his odds of making it to the bigs and surviving, something most of our hitting prospects have failed at.
I'd be happy with Stephen Drew. More? I can only hope...
~G
12
It's been 4 weeks. Carroll is still 4th in the league in walks. His Ks have remained high but he's on pace for something like 70 steals this year. Power is always hard to judge in the Cal League, especially HD, but he's trying to put his name back on the prospect rolls.
Franklin has dropped into the teens in walk-rank, but he's missed a couple games here and there and basically gave up on walks to work on his swing the last couple of weeks and is back to hitting .300 with a bit of power. The first week of May was ATROCIOUS for him and he's been climbing out of that ever since.
Jake Schaffer is trying to prove he's at least Jacque Jones. The man will never ever walk, but if he hits .330 with power I don't much care. He did it last year in the Cal League, but I discounted it due to it being the Cal League. The Southern League is NOT a hitter's league like that, and he's destroying it. 5th in batting average, 6th in slugging, and he's just 23 so it's age-appropriate. Jacque Jones, maybe Torii Hunter - either way, he's trying to get interesting despite his aversion to bases on balls.
If he gets here in time maybe Ichiro can teach him how to have a successful career like that.
Catricala is OPSing nearly 1.000 on the season (7th in the Cal League) but he has 14 walks in May after just 2 in April, and his batting eye is basically even for the month. He's crushing the ball this month, taking his walks and everything's falling in. His BABIP is high - everything IS falling in - but he's 22 and still has potential prospect status as well, especially if he can manage to stay at 3rd.
Poythress still has doubles power (tied for 8th in the league) but his average and HR power have fallen severely. He still has time to climb back to more representative numbers, but if the rumor is correct about them messing with his swing (to get him more wrist action to add batspeed) then I don't know how long it'll take him to get used to that.
Kyle Seager is still impressing beyond my expectations and at the level of my hopes for him. A .300 batting average, .850 OPS, a doubles machine...if he can stay at 2nd he's a legit blue-chip prospect at that rate. He'll never hit a ton of homeruns (or probably get out of single digits in the pros) but a 40 doubles 2B with a good average has value. I'd take it at 3rd right now, which might be Seager's eventual destination anyway. He's got an Adam Kennedy career dead in his sights at this point, and we'll see where he goes from there.
There are other guys I'm watching below AAA (what's goin on with Jabari Blash and his freakazoid eye ratio of nearly 2:1, for instance) but we still have interesting hitting prospects in the system even if some other hitters we were hoping would step up have regressed.
~G