M's 7, Tigers 2 - Props and Slops

PROPS TO BASEBALL's FIRST 6-SECOND DOUBLE - Smoak's GWRBI soared majestically out and kicked off the middle of the warning track in CF at Detroit.  There are 420' handbills posted nearby.   

Austin Jackson looked like Randy Moss on a deep route trying to chase the blast down, but he was a good 10 yards from its landing place when it finally came down.

As Blowers immediately noted, the crosswind was 20-25 mph, and reduced the ball's distance.  In a dome, that ball would have been 440 to center.  

Don't ever remember any specific "double" with that much hang time, though I'm sure that Cecil and Prince Fielder trash-talk about hang-time singles and doubles all the time.

Once again, the blow was huge, coming in a 2-2 game, taking the lead back after an 0-2 game, and leaving the Tigers visibly unnerved.

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SLOPS TO the "REPLACEMENT LEVEL PLAYER" CONSTRUCT - Wedge sat Cust down again, this time against a mediocre RHP.  Wedge  was rewarded by 12 hits from 8 different hitters, notably the DH, Adam Kennedy.

The M's got down 2-0 early .... and then ripped off 7 consecutive runs.  The scoreboard progressed like this:

  • 0-2
  • 2-2
  • 3-2
  • 4-2
  • 7-2

I felt like I was watching the Big Red Machine with Don Gullett on the mound :- )

RELEASE JACK CUST RIGHT NOW.

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If the message is, "we're going to try to get up off the canvas," There are several Mariners I'd rather watch hit than Jack Cust, notably Adam Kennedy, Luis Rodriguez, but also including Michael Saunders, and including Mike Wilson.

That is, unless Replacement Level Players actually occur.  In this universe and not just on Deep Space Fangraphs.

We are talking about trying to find a "replacement level" DESIGNATED HITTER, ARE WE NOT?  If there is ONE rlp in baseball, we could improve our club, free.  Right?

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One of these days would you like Dr. D to give yer the truth about RLP's?  I've got it here in my desk drawer.  Beware, though:  truth is usually nuanced.

The RLP concept is useful as a pivot point for baseball math -- actually, indispensible.  Has been since James in the 1980's.  

It is decidedly not useful when used as an assumption of which dynamic options a GM has at his fingertips, from one moment to the next.

Want to know how often a GM actually gets RL performance when he deploys an RL player?

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PROPS TO DR. K'S 1st-INNING K CHART - Again Thursday, 3 K in the first inning, 2 in the second, 1 in the third, and then three the rest of the way.

Pineda has not given up a home run in his first 125+ batters and again today, there was nothing close to the warning track .... nope, edit to add, I forgot about a fly ball to left-center that was caught close to the warning track.

I'm not sure where this will end.  They go up, the first time through the lineup, take legit swings ... and get combusted.  Nothing left but one uncharred ankle with shoe still on it.

So then they protect the plate and all hope of HR's are gone.  What's the endgame on this?

Pineda with 4 victories in April.  The countdown to 20 W's is on...

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SLOPS TO THE DOGHOUSE - Mike Wilson is slugging .600, .700 in AAA, in limited AB's.  

As Bill James would ask:  if you are not going to allow this guy a chance when the time is right, that's fine.  But!, then why is he here?

I don't mean, "You should give him a chance."  I mean, "you should cut him and get him out of the organization."

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Mike Wilson is like 28 years old or something; letting him "groove in" for 2011 is irrelevant at his age/arc.  He's a journeyman who has been stalled-out and rotting at his level of development for years.  

He was the #26 Mariner in two spring trainings, including one three years ago.  The Mariners have a calamity at DH.  The glove position that is open is LF.

Would like to know (1) what Wilson's personality disorder is, or else (2) why this man is not released.

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The Ryan Howard wannabe they brought up, that guy needs another game or 200 in the minors.  But Mike Wilson, that guy would be an interesting try.  What's the holdup?


BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

2

Hey champ, have you seen this article?
Suddenly da Fangraphs Truth becomes more nuanced:  turns out a pitcher can influence his own homer/F rate.  And, mercy me, whod'a thunk great fastball is demonstrably a weapon that prevents homers.
The industrywide CORR between FBv and HR/F is 0.29 ... but of course what is generally "mildly true" can be specifically "very true" for the outliers.
If all pitchers with smoke can suppress HR's mildly, then a pitcher with [97 smoke x great command] might well suppress HR's dramatically.
It's a funny thing:  when Bill James heard Voros McCracken's theory, the very first thing he did was open the almanac to NOLAN RYAN, to see if 98 heat would defeat the theory.  (It does, to some extent; we exchanged some letters about it.)  One more example of James seeing at a glance what takes an army of 'net rats 10 years to stumble upon.
........
You know and I know that it has been no accident that Pineda's getting pansy swings against him.

3

You can cruise to the playoffs already.
Felix-Verlander-Lester with Harrison and Colon scrounged .... Cabrera anchoring the lineup... that's three times I've played you, and three times you've put together an elite team.  That rules out luck I gotta say ...
..........
Meanwhile, BABVA has had quite a humorous April:  Phil Hughes, Dallas Braden AND Francisco Liriano, with Tsuyoshi Nishioka for good measure.  Erik Bedard and Kila Ka'aihue seemed like good ideas at the time ....
Never had an April go worse, but we're not worried.  Doogie can carry us until we get our rotation going :- )
...........
Hey, would you cut Phil Hughes with tight rosters, or wait for the formal diagnosis?  Several Doogies on the wire that I'd like to pick from...

4
ghost's picture

I always thought he was going to flame out with injury...but was hoping it wouldn't be in 2011.  Hm.  Every start he's had has been disastrous so far.  Trying to be patient with my "ace".

5

Taro,
I know that you have been concerned about Pineda's mechanics in the past.  Now that you've seen him some more, are you still concerned?

7
Taro's picture

Ya, the high elbow is still there. It doesn't mean he won't dominate for 3-5 years though. Hes looked completely unhittable.

8
Taro's picture

I don't know Doc.. I've made some mistakes already and the team hasn't panned out like I hoped. I made a few really bad trades based on need when Manny decided to retire and I dropped Matsuzaka a few days early. Oh well.
As for Hughes.. I would wait until a full diagnosis before dropping him. My guess is somebody would take a shot on him with a waiver claim if he was dropped before the Yankees figured out whats wrong.

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