Result of the series - 2-1 victory -- absolutely wonderful, and doubly so, since it was against a division rival, and the one many pundits were predicting as the sleeper pick to win the division, (y'know like Seattle was last February).
Thoughts per game - then the summary:
Game 1) Felix is indeed the King. One small blip early, then a complete shut down of the opposition. 5/0 K/BB ratio is a nice start. CG a minor surprise for opening day, but despite the 5 hits, he only faced 30 batters and threw only 108 pitches.
Offense managed 6 runs off 8 hits and 7 (?!?) walks! By stats, Cahill was effectively wild, and the rest of the game, the As were just wild. But, lost in the sweet goodness of an opening day CG from Felix was fourteen (14) Ks by the Ms hitters. Yeah, it was TTO central - but in what reality is a HR from Figgins a "true" outcome? Really.
The most subtle aspect of the game was that Wedge managed to avoid having to touch his bullpen at all on day one.
Oddball observation: I'm mostly alone, but was glad to see Langerhans get the start over Saunders. He had a better overall Spring - and I believe entitled prospects are JUST as dangerous to the club as entitled veterans. The 4 whiffs is also helpful in not keeping Saunders out of the lineup too long.
Game 2) Vargas didn't throw a CG. But he did throw a QS, and fanned more As than Felix, while walking only one. Unlike Felix he didn't get run support, (though the club upped its hit total significantly). The 14/7 K/BB turned to 5/2 for the Ms offense. This time Smoak was the only guy to earn a stroll.
Well, after Figgy was the first M to HR in game one - Ryan was the only guy with an XBH in game two. But, he did manage to give that base back with a CS.
Chris Ray managed to blow a save for the team in the first game where the bullpen appeared. He also managed to poach the "W", as League got the save. A 0/0 K/BB for the bullpen doesn't say much of anything - but it's only 2.1 innings.
Adam Moore picked up right where he left off in 2010 - oh-fer-three with two Ks. But Saunders managed a couple of sacrifices and got an RBI in his first start.
Oddball observation: Saunders and Moore were the only Ms w/o a base hit. They were the only Ms who have never played for another team.
Game 3) This time the offense had a 7/5 K/BB ratio. And a *REAL* slugger got the 2nd HR of the year for the club - Langerhans ... (oh, never mind). The club sprinkled in 6 hits among the walks, but managed only a single run (on that HR). Small ball was a wee too small on this day.
Doc says he'd love to see Fister pitch like this all the time. I have no reason to doubt Doc's eyes-on assessment. But, the NUMBERS show 8 hits in 5.2 innings. My concern with Fister from day one is hits allowed. At every level of the minors, he got HIT. His saving grace is an ability to avoid the gopher, which he did just fine. (In fact after 3 games, the only HR allowed was by Felix). But, if Fister is going to allow 8 hits in 5.2 innings "when he's dialed in", that causes me concern for those days when he isn't. In the end, I remain convinced that Fister is Silva-lite, meaning, he will likely ALWAYS be hanging onto his job by the skin of his teeth - and he could turn into a 6+ ERA pitcher at the drop of a hat. With his control, (plus-plus), he's probably in just about the only AL situation where he could survive long term. But, I still think his best hope for a nice career would include a trade to the NL, (like St. Louis).
Of note on Fister - he faced 26 batters and threw 98 pitches. ZERO were swinging strikes. Is it REALLY possible to be dialed in and NEVER miss a bat? Ever? There were 22 strikes looking against him.
Fister finished one out short of a QS. So, not a 'tough loss' - at least officially.
The bullpen (Lueke) ended any drama pretty quickly, though he did manage to get the first K for the bullpen this season.
Oddball observation: Fister didn't walk any - but he gave up 3 doubles and a triple. His LD% wasn't bad, though. But, the puzzler here is ... why is it that the pitcher with the best control on the team is the first guy to plunk an opposing batter. No walks - but an HBP is a free pass, nonetheless.
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Conclusion: Rotation is going to be solid. Offense will be better, but still pretty bad. But, little reason thus far to believe the bullpen is at least as bad - (and probably worse) than 2010. Hope I'm wrong - and maybe Aardsma and Kelley and Cortes and maybe even Moran eventually get it all together and make me eat crow in the 2nd half. Of course, if that happens, what does that say about the current pen?
=== SLOPS ===
To the A's for their cowardly gambit, rolling out onto the field in day-glo reflective gold satin.
Granted, it only worked six or seven times, but the occasions in which the Mariners did lose the ball in the A's jerseys were ill-timed. Don't believe me? So why was Doug Fister wearing gargoyles?
Nobody said that "weak" doesn't "work." Those jerseys were made in Hong Kong, you know that.
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Josh Lueke. In spring we were startled by raw he looked.
We don't say he's done, and actually I had to leave for work just as he entered the ballgame. But the blinded fielders and debut jitters aside, he allowed an OBP of like .900.
Knowing Eric Wedge, we'll just take a wild guess that he goes to the back of the line, the 4th-inning down-by-12 bullpen line. In this case, I would agree. Earl always said, unless you're that 300-lb. comic book character up there in Seattle, the place for a rookie is in long relief.
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Pascal's Triangle, a probability dispersion which allows for 2% of the pinballs to pile up at the far unlucky corner. It also allowed for 11 more baserunners, a SB, and an HR to somehow add up to only one run.
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With the ballgame tied 1-1, this season's Mariners did not subsist on a total of one baserunner from inning 3 through inning 7.
That occured in 60% of last year's games, and in 94% of Felix' starts. But in this deceptive game, the M's had the wrestler's riding time in innings 3-7:
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IP 3 - Bradley doubled, and Cust -- big shocker here -- "worked a tough AB" before grounding a hard single past the pitcher - into the 3B's mitt. John asked me why they never shifted RH batters the way they do Cust. I surmised that there might accrue certain disadvantages to playing the first baseman in center field.
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IP 4 - Miguel Olivo walked -- no, actually walked in the baseball-glossary sense of the word. And then Ryan Langerhans nailed a Gio pitch right. on. the. button. To Gio. Who, stunned that he wasn't injured, finally re-focused his eyes and realized that he could throw over to first, doubling Olivo off.
"This is the team we should have seen from the get-go," boasted Gio after the game. No word on whether Cahill and Anderson threw him a blanket party in the alley for it.
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IP 5 - Brendan Ryan worked "Oh, that old leadoff base on balls" -- how's my Dave here, Rick? -- and a forceout later, Ichiro also walked.
(Does this middle-inning babble of living brook water, sound like Don Wakamatsu's 7-1 games to you?)
Gio was obviously tiring and "The plate is starting to dance around now on Gio a little bit!" - in this case, meaning that he was trying to throw gimme strikes, and missing by two feet.
At this point, SSI wasn't blowing the game off any more. To its lasting regret.
....
Figgins hit a grounder that had maybe a 35% chance of finding a hole. It found Cliff Pennington moving toward the bag. DP.
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IP 6 - Jack Cust again lined the ball hard at Gio, who kick-saved it clear to his right... er, happened to catch it.
Right after that, Smoak Smashd a double down the LF line. Cust would easily have scored from 1B on this double ... provided that another double followed immediately after, of course.
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IP 7 - Langerhans led off with a walk. "The old leadoff base on balls!" "You said that several times already," whispers Kevin Cremin into the headset.
Brendan Ryan walked. The M's had:
- The tying runs on again
- Their best bunter up
- Ichiro and Figgins following him
It's only the third game of the new offense, and already I was fully expecting the opposite of 2010: a rally culminating in a runner crossing home plate.
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Jack Wilson did bunt the runners over -- bunting to his less-preferred 3B side, since the A's were overplaying the push bunt. The pull bunt was perfect.
But Ichiro and Figgins died feebly.
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IP 8-9: No use in false hustle with the score 7-1, what?
Six M's up, Six M's down, except Smoak walked in there somewhere. The double and BB in 4 PA's --- > plummeted his OBP to a mere .538.
I don't expect the OBP to finish at .538, but I will take the 4:2 EYE ratio considering that he was facing three aces.
By the way, does anybody male-and-over-18 know what a "Lycanthrope" is? A year's free subscription to the first man with a software morph of Justin Smoak transforming into a were-chipmunk.
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Close ballgames are dominated by chance and the Triangle, and you could look it up, Voros. Some nights that hacks me off. Am not hacked off about the way Jack powerflushed the 2010 hosers, eh.
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Comments
Oddball observation: Saunders and Moore were the only Ms w/o a base hit. They were the only Ms who have never played for another team
Heh!
I have no reason to doubt Doc's eyes-on assessment. But, the NUMBERS show 8 hits in 5.2 innings. My concern with Fister from day one is hits allowed.
Ya, keeping in mind that two or three of them were pop flies lost in the sun, scored as "hits," so it's more like 6-7 hits in 7 IP... as well, there was a four-bouncer between 3B and SS that missed Figgins' glove by a foot and Ryan's by the same...
Still: Doogie WILL DEFINITELY give up LOTS of hits, as did Tommy John. He also will walk nobody, so his survival boils down to his HR rate.
Jury's not out on Fister. If his HR rate is 1.0, his ERA+ will be north of 100. If not, it won't. Fortunately he pitches in Safeco. Tommy John in Safeco = golden. We'll see about Fister.
Good stuff San'.
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On the TTO's, we might also note that the only 2 homers came from guys who won't provide them this year, so what happens when Smoak, Cust, Olivo, Bradley, and the real masher Ichiro start hitting a few :- )
Well, Doc ... you and I have been cross-firing on Vargas and Fister from day one.
I've always liked Vargas, and view him as a 'decent' #3 ... sort of in the Washburn mold, while viewing Fister as Silva ('05), where any moment the wheels are going to fly off in a horrible explosion that brings panic-attack flashbacks of HoRam.
You've sort of seen the reverse.
I'm happy with the way we're running 50/50 on these guys, and I'm enjoying every game Fister continues proving me wrong. I just hope Kasparek (or somebody) is ready when one of gets proven right (wrong?).
I didn't watch the game, but listened to the A's radio broadcast here in the Bay area. Here is how I see the chain of events.
Came into the 6th inning and easily dispatched with Pennington getting two swing strikes. Starts the 7th by getting Crisp to hit a lazy flyball that Langerhans turns into a double. Then battles Barton for an 8 pitch walk. If you go to gameday classic (thanks OBF) and check-out the at-bat, the ump clearly gave him the rookie treatment against Barton. Two of the balls were clearly curves thrown in the strike zone and a third was borderline. Now I do think it becomes a bit flustered, or they pitched around DeJesus, not really sure but he missed the zone on four straight fastballs.
Bases are loaded, maybe the wheels are going to come off, but he then strikes out Josh Willingham on three pitches and gets Matsui to hit a pop up to short right field that wouldn't have scored the runner from third, except that Ichiro can't pick it up in the sun and turns it into a run scoring single.
So to summarize. Except for the DeJesus at bat, he threw strikes. The A's swung 12 times, missed 4 times, fouled off 6 balls, and hit two weak flyballs.
I watched the Gameday data carefully for both Lueke and Wilhelmsen in the Arizona Fall League, since they were both players I was interested in.
There (in Arizona) they both were hitting 94-96 most of the time.
In Oakland, Wilhelmsen was 96 right off the bat, and Fister was even throwing 89-91 on the Oakland gun.
But Lueke maxed out at 93 and was 91-92 on most pitches. That, plus not showing the control that he showed the entire calendar year of 2010, has me a little concerned that something isn't right.
Lueke is not a relief ace if he is only 1 mph harder than Fister. But that's not the Lueke we saw last year.
Perfectly reasonable argument, kg.
Lueke was the ONLY Seattle pitcher to actually miss a bat all day.
Then again, the final tallies were 12-GB; 17-FB; 4-LD for Seattle pitching and 12/12/4 for Oakland. You give up an extra 5 fly balls with a high sky ... (and Seattle only pitched 8 innings) ...
Lueke may well be the best arm in the bullpen ... which still gives me pause.