I know it is a rfairly small sample....110+ PA's, but somethings look dismal:
GB/FB: 1.93 (career high. career number is 1.06)
LD: 18% (career low)
GB: 54% (career high)
FB: 28% (career low)
And he has been on base (hits + BB) 30 times while striking out 29 times.
For a TTO guy...those are alarming trends. Even in ST (where he did hit 4 taters) he was only on base 19 times and K'ed 25 times.
He's hitting the ball on the ground and when he does get it in the air it isn't roped and doesn't carry.
The tipping point where future PA's become wasted PA's is nigh, or nearly so. If the M's have a good series in Boston and .500 is imminent and King and Kong promise so much more and the bats keep "Smoaking" (nice, huh?).....well, how long do you carry Cust w/o a glimpse of his TTO ability.
Sez Coug, who this week is locked in mortal kombat with BABVA in the AL-only league:
Raul Ibanez looked finished the first half of 2007. It was so painful to watch that I was practically begging Bavasi to give the spot to Jones because a pennent was on the line. Clearly Ibanez wasn't finished.
When power hitters struggle (Sexson in the first half of 2006 as well), they look finished. But if Cust isn't finished can you think of a player with a higher upside than him just floating around the league? Mike Wilson doesn't interest me because even if he beats the long odds and makes it in the bigs, Safeco isn't the park where he will succeed. If he were a lefty... maybe.
Great examples on Ibanez and Sexson.
And I was one of the doorstops who figured it was time to bail on Raul, based first of all on fading LH vs LH splits. Embarrassing to judge a player washed up when he has three (3) full 100-RBI seasons in the tank.
Gotta allow for a decent possibility that Cust will bounce back. Obviously Zduriencik is allowing for it as we speak.
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At the same time, guys are finished some time, right? Can't keep throwing good money after bad in a refusal to recognize when the player is washed up .... so the decision is tough, no doubt...
Reasons that I judge Cust to be over the hill, all of which might be wrong:
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=== HR/F Rate ===
Remember, James sabermetrics emphasizes trendlines over periods of years. These data are seminal.
- 2007 - 32% - age 28
- 2008 - 30% - age 29
- 2009 - 18% - age 30
- 2010 - 15% - age 31
- 2011 - 00% - age 32
Sometimes numbers don't mean anything. Sometimes they do. Sabermetrics isn't as easy as buying BaseballHQ.com for a year. There's guessing involved...
Personally, I judge these HR/F numbers to reflect an effect that has cause. That cause being the physical decline of Jack Cust.
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=== Age 32 ===
I experienced the ages of 28 and 32. They aren't the same ages.
Most people are surprised when a decent ballplayer, say Jeff Cirillo, is no longer good at age 32. Bill James was surprised when a non-star ballplayer was still good at 32.
In the 1970's, he waged a long and determined war on Stan Musial's famous statement that a ballplayer peaks at around age 32. That specific age, 32, is one that should be associated with a hitter's decline. Unless there's reason to believe otherwise, of course.
I believe we underestimate the impact of passing age 30, when we're talking about rank-and-file ballplayers.
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=== Old Player's Skills ===
It's even more likely that an age-32 player will be done if he plays in an Alvin Davis profile.
The principle isn't especially deep .... don't think of 25% of age-32 players as being done. Think of 75% of them being done. If they're not realllllllly good.
Your evaluation of Cust's struggles will be different if you're coming from the 25% assumption vs. the 75% assumption.
If an aging Shawn Alexander is running a 5.1 forty and he gets crushed three times, that's not small "sample size" (sic). It is confirmation of what we should have seen coming.
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Is 25-75 the right number? I don't know, but whatever the split is: it's worse for guys like Cust than for guys like Figgins.
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=== The Oakland A's ===
The A's gave up on Cust.
They gave up on Cust more than once. 2011 was simply their final word on the subject.
I believe that the Oakland A's probably had a profound understanding of Cust's situation.
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=== The Clipboard ===
It does not look to me, from the CF camera, that Jack Cust has the explosiveness needed to (1) load up and hit a ball 400' while (2) being quick.
You and I have the ability to either hit somebody really hard, or else to hit somebody really quick ....
Bruce Lee called that second one "flickiness." You have to hit really quick without flickiness, Lee said. Only great athletes, in their prime, can do that.
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=== Context ===
Cust is making contact every bit as well as he ever did. But John Olerud's only problem was ever that his doubles and homers started dying in front of the warning track...
The A's DFA'ed Cust the first time for running an OPS+ of 104. Think about it: 104 isn't acceptable to the A's at DH. They've got kids they wanna try.
104 is now our dream scenario for Cust, is it not? When your best-case scenario results in you losing, you've got to change the discussion.
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It would be one thing if Cust had Chone Figgins' contract. He doesn't have any contract, to speak of.
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It would be another thing if he played third base, or something, and you couldn't give his AB's to anybody.
But at DH you can give his AB's to anybody, and I don't care which of these two things it is:
- The RLP snipe
- Any developmental player, e.g. Saunders, if there's no snipe
Tough to believe there is nobody, not one player, in AAA or Safeco who is worth spending AB's on, if only to gather data to make a decision.
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Let's see some backup for Coug. And if Cust hits three homers in Boston, this tape will self-destruct.
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BABVA,
Dr D
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Comments
Coug's memory is faulty, I'm afraid, in re: Raul Ibanez.
His first two months in 2007 were painful compared to his normal...but he hit this slash line:
.282/.341/.391
Not this slash line:
.177/.316/.203
I hope the difference there is clear. :)
And at his age, Ibanez had not drifted into old-man skill territory. He was still hitting more doubles than homers (he was a topspin line drive hitter, not a towering fly ball hitter like Cust), still had a BABIP of .300, still had a 21% LD rate...the slump in July was mostly bad BABIP and HR/Fly luck...there were many reasons to think Ibanez might not be done.
The Sexson example tracks a LITTLE better...but even Sexson was hitting this slash line after June of 2006:
.206/.276/.355
Not this slash line (it bears repeating)
.177/.316/.203
There was still POP in Sexson's bat after the bad start. There is absolutely ZEEEEERRRRROOOO pop in Cust's bat right now. NONE. Both of the XBH he's got so far were lucky bloops...his LD% might as well be zero.
And I would argue that the bad start in 2006 for Sexson did portend the end was nigh...he recovered and hit well the rest of that year, but the same kind of bad start in 2007 was the end of the line for Sexy (except that time, the pop dropped). I would also argue that Sexson was physically more impressive in 2006 than Cust is now. Cust looks like a fat old man compared to Sexson '06. Did you see the way he almost impailed himself on his own leg when sliding into second base to break up a double play a week or so ago? Or the way he really turned on that second afterburner and made it all the way from first to third...on a double off the CENTER FIELD FENCE!!!!! ten days ago? The man is doner than done...there's no way in Hades that he ever recovers.
The sad thing is that his BABIP (currently .280!!) is not even unlucky...and he's hitting .177. He's NOT HITTING INTO BAD LUCK...and hitting .177. I can't think of a better way to say someone's done than that.
Or you could just watch his next at bat...wait til he gets into yet another hitter's count (3-1, 2-0)...and then watch him load up to yank a fastball...and hit another two-hopper to RCF for an easy groundout into that shift or pop-fly to shallow RF, or foul it back lazily.
Interesting feedback on rauuuul and Sexson amigo... You been at yer best in many of these posts and am glad to see a piece of evidence for my position as it were...
in Coug's defense, his macro point is welcome in a think tank (not groupthink) enviro...
/cosign on the idea that an aging slugger can have a terrrrrrrible April, and yet bounce back.... Zduriencik is implying his own implicit agreement with Coug here....
Just the same my coefficient of confidence is 80, 90 percent on this one FWIW and even if yer wrong about swapping out Cust, what is the cost... Rather small....
Not as it applies to Cust, but definitely, aging sluggers tend to be streaky and strike out a lot when they're not off to a good start with pitch recognition or when their bodies aren't moving as quickly as they will in the summer etc. Nothing wrong with pointing that out.
But Cust isn't even an aging slugger. Can't be an aging slugger if you literally cannot slug. Even the aging Sexson slugged in his bad months. :)
Point cheerfully conceded though that early stats often do look really really ugly and mean nothing. Something like that could be argued to be happening to Chone Figgins...who actually IS hitting into bad luck. I doubt he'll be as good as he was in Anaheim...but I also doubt he's THIS bad. And the same could be said for Miguel Olivo before this past series in Detroit with 7 hits including 2 taters and 2 doubles. I think people are always going to be white-knuckle with Olvio because he was so bad the last time he was here...but this is a different environment with a different manager and a different Olivo (mentally and physically)..and although Safeco will hurt him some, I was not at all ready to conclude that he was about to implode just because he was hitting .180 with no power yet.
But, from my perspective, there is a LOT of cherry-picking going on regarding Cust.
He hit 4 HRs in ST - (to lead the team). That is hand-waved away as irrelevent, while simultaneously stating that he has absolutely, positively ZERO pop left in his bat!?!
Mind you, *I* said BEFORE ST 2010 that Griffey was absolutely done - and he followed that assertion with a completely dreadful ST with one dinger on the last day (IIRC), and never hit another.
To assume that 100% of the pop has left Cust's bat, one *MUST* assume that it left it between March and April of 2011. CLEARLY, his eye hasn't changed, (his 0.55 K/BB is identical to his career average).
I mean, *I* look at his batted ball stat and the 54% GB% compared to his 40.5 career number is the one that leaps out at me. The other stat that leaps out is infield fly%, which (like his HR%) is ZERO.
What I see is a picture of a guy who is seeing the ball as well as ever - but who is swinging over the top of EVERYTHING. Why isn't the ball sailing? Because he hasn't hit a ball "squarely" all season. Maybe that means he's finished. But, he wasn't swinging over everything in ST, and that was less than a month ago.
As Doc said - you CAN be done at age 32. But, if you look at his 2010 splits, his *ENTIRE* drop in power was against lefties. His power against RHP in 2010 was as good as ever. Now, his 2011 splits are completely in bizarro land.
If his eye was different, I'd be worried. If his G/F ratio was normal and his HR/F ratio was tanking, I'd be on board that he's lost his turbo boost. But, BECAUSE his G/F is so dreadfully out of whack, to me, it's pretty obvious (from a stat perspective), that he's topping everything.
The danger I see is that when Sexson slumped, I think the club encouraged him to cut down on his swing and just make contact - and it killed whatever shot Sexson had to recover. If they're doing the same thing, Cust is dead, too. Cust *CANNOT* survive as a slap hitter. But, his steady K rate tell ME that his bat speed isn't the problem - (else he's be late on more 2 strike FBs).
Ultimately, though, I see the Cust situation as one where - you stick with him for one simple reason. you have *ZERO* better options at the moment. Bradley is NOT a better option, because Bradley is reliably unreliable.
The much larger concern for me is that Cust could be another nail in the coffin that Seattle is literally making hitters worse. (Kotchman is hitting .333 with an .844 OPS at the moment for Tampa).
I'm willing to let Cust hang around for a bit (days to a couple of weeks)...but only a bit just to see if he finds some pop. but the chance of payoff on patience is dwindling, rapidly. And I don't see this as a Safeco thing. He can't hit the ball hard anywhere....nor has he had anyting die at the track.
He's lost his quick with the bat which may be fatal for a guy with a great eye. He's patient, stalks pitches, waits, etc. But if that "wait" means that he must be quick.....well then, even when he does get his pitch he may not be able to get to it. So, in that case you adjust by cheating. You go early and you get on top of everything.
I mentioned Arizona in my original post because I wanted to give him that benefit of the doubt. But Arizona ain't exactly thickly aired. The ball zooms down there. It is a desert, after all. Would be interesting to see who he went deep on in ST?
I want Cust to find it soon. I don't think he will this year. And if he isn't going to this year then he isn't an M next year...and ergo, we've got badly wasted PA's.
Wilson was 1-6 last night. Drats...but he can mash, walk and defend. He's two holes up on Cust, already.
Carp remains hot, btw.
Wilson...if it doesn't work out you release him and go with Carp or Peguero or Mangini or Tui. You have several bats to try out. All may well be as valuable as Cust. Some will be more valuable.
...but I do feel it appropriate to note that I'm nt hand-waving ST...I'm saying he hit 4 HRs largely against fringe pitching in the Arizona warmth and high altitude...and not one of those HRs went more than 420 feet. ST isn't meaningless...but it will make AAAA talents look like Gods among men sometimes (see: Wilson, Mike)...especially Arizona with its' ideal hitting climate (a la High Desert).
The question is...why is he topping everything? He's normally a backspin big-fly hitter...not a topspin guy...so it's not like Raul Ibanez stuck in a grounder rut. I think he's topping everything because his bat is slow now...so he's arm-swinging when he's in bad counts and cheating when he's on good counts.
An arm-swing will either produce a pop-up or a grounder almost every time...and when they're trying to get your in between it's more like to either be a foul tip or a grounder.
And if you're cheating hoping for a fastball...the pitchers see this and throw you a slider or a change-up down repeatedly and...you get a ton a grounders and Ks.
Fitting aging or veteran cheap lefty bat to Safeco hasn't been much of a positive effort the last two years. Griffey, Branyan, Kotchman, now Cust....
How has that worked out in '10 & '11?
And little has been said about Milton's non-lethal stroke, right now.
He's hitting .205, exactly what he hit in last year, which was generally regarded as terrible. He's slugging a bit better (a slight increase in doubles) and his OBP is a tad better.....but he's basically the same player a last year, right now.
And we haven't seen him break down physically, yet. And that happens every year.
He needs to DH. We need somebody else in LF.
Wilson: Until he proves he can't do it. But if you are thinking he can't significantly improve on Cust right now, then pointing out Cust's death spiral isn't working , anyway.
moe
A reason I'm both optimistic and pessimistic about Cust is his bizarro BABIP.
He's typically had a BABIP in the 330s ... (obviously NOT an artifact of his blazing speed), which is currently in the .280s.
The Sexson experience taught me to look at the "outlier" BABIP numbers as a sign of done-ness. At one point people were claiming the .200 BABIPs from Sexson were just bad luck and he's bounce back. Except he didn't. So, when Griffey started displaying .230 BABIPs, I interpreted that as a sign of doom.
Cust is different. He's not showing a "raw" outlier BABIP. A .280 BABIP is clearly not outlier. But, a BABIP 50 points under norm ... so ... yes, cause for concern.
So ... what if we look at his ENTIRE history. Has he EVER had a month as bad as this April?
Well, april of 2008, he had a .275 BABIP and 1-HR in 91 PAs. His slash line was .176/.386/.265 (.649). Not quite as bad as this April, but close. ZERO power, and his walks were the only thing keeping him alive, (hit 3 doubles and 1-HR that month). He posted a 1004 OPS the next month and had at least 5 HRs every month thereafter.
In June of 2009, he had a .203 BABIP - but hit 6 HRs (his high month for the season), with a slash line of .180/.265/.390 (.655).
His WORST BABIP month in 2010 was .371 (September), but he had 3-HRs and a .404 slugging average then.
So, in truth, his April 2011 is actually not far removed from his April of 2008 -- which he recovered from enough to post a .850 OPS for in that season.
In truth, you look at Cust's personal monthly history from 2007 to date, and he's all over the place. In May of 2010, he had 1 double for the month, (and a .282 slugging average), but "lucked" his way to a .417 BABIP, which gave him a .665 OPS for the month. In July of 2010, he slugged .676 with 6 HRs and 7 doubles -- then posted a miserable .364 slugging average in August.
The reality for Cust since MLB birth is that he is INCAPABLE of "holding onto" a good swing. So, the real question I have is this -- is he capable of "holding onto" a bad swing?
Sandy,
Great stuff! That's why this board is so great.
Did his GB to FB and line drive #'s look so dismmal in '08?
I'm interested a bit in the response to his opposite field double the other night, quite positive. But I haven't seen much written about the previous 4 AB's, all ugly K's.
Thanks....
Cust has been absymal against righties so far this year, but I don't expect that to continue. He clubbed them the last two years with no sign of falloff, IIRC, so I expect even if he does fall off for it just to be toward "average."
Just get a platoon mate for him, a RH clubber who struggles against same-handed pitching. Those guys are available for basically nothing, because 2/3 of the league is righties.
Take a third of Jack's at-bats away against his weakest side, tell him it's so he can get comfortable against his good side, and let him do what he should still be able to do.
I don't believe he's totally done at this point, but I would start putting him in spots where he can be effective. Alex Liddi isn't ready to platoon, but call up someone to hit just lefties, or trade with a club by giving them some 5 ERA over-age reliever to get 150 ABs of help for Cust's worst days.
I don't want Cust back next year even though I think he'll improve as the year goes on, but we don't have to try to get instant contributions from a Mike Wilson type facing all pitchers either.
~G
I get my splits from bbref, which doesn't have the LD/GB/FB stats by month, (just by year).
His final numbers were fine, but no idea how he did during that April
...would need to *NOT* be a bat-only guy. The two-DH system does not work. It's been tried and it really hamstrung Wak.
We need that righty platoon-mate to be a versatile, defensively competent guy who also happens to have a bat. Someone in the mold of Ty Wigginton back when he was a decent hitter.
Not waving off Cust's 4 HR's in spring ... had simply forgotten about them :- )
Point 1: Good catch bro'. The homers in Arizona are a somewhat comforting piece on the other side of the scale. :cpoints:
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Point 2: Not wanting to be stubborn, can't /cosign that March definitely means something.
There are any number of guys *who cannot play major league baseball* who hit HR's, and plenty of them, in Arizona. Mike Wilson hit 8-9 homers in Arizona... about four times, I think.
I don't doubt that Cust can hit 6 straight homers in batting practice, for instance. The question is whether a hitter is explosive enough to generate power while being quick against quality Verlander pitches.
Jack Hannahan hit 4 homers this spring. What do we make of that?
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ST stats are a little like Cuban stats or AFL stats. I wouldn't build an argument off them. Certainly not to the extent of saying "well, he was fine in March but lost his stroke in April." No, in March he was not playing major league baseball.
That said, Cust did go long in March, and that's worth considering from a physical-strength standpoint.
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The most logical course of action for a platoon would be to move Bradley to DH against LHP and put Giminez in LF. I don't think you seriously look at cutting Cust until you get Guti healthy.
We don't have anyone in AAA that interests me, except for Tui and Halman but you don't go with those guys until you are punting the season.