1
Danny Hulzen. I realize he probably doesn't throw as hard as Cole and there are the new bats, but...
14.97 K/9
9 K/BB
0.33 HR/9
.181 AVG against
Is this really a two-man race? What exactly does Hulzen throw now?
Half-Season Update: Rendon vs Cole
G-Money sez,
Rendon in 63 games (226 ABs) last year:
.394/.539/.801/1.340, 12 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 65BB/22K, 6 HBP
Rendon in basically half the season this year (36 games, 117 ABs): .359/.561/.556/1.117, 10 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 52BB/19K, 3 HBP
They're trying to walk him a hundred times this year. He gets nothing to hit, since one of the only other threats in the lineup went down injured. The next highest walk total on the team is 19.
Everything I could have asked for in order for Rendon to fall to us is happening. His power has taken a hit, what with not being pitched to and having the new bats to deal with.
A couple minor injuries and his fielding has suffered as well in the process. Average is down a bit and Ks are up as he expands the strike zone to try to help his team with hits.
But all his major skills are still there. He hits hard shots in the gap, can play the hot corner, and has one of the best eyes in college even WHILE expanding his zone.
Still, the HR falloff and injury issues might concern the Pirates enough to make them go with Cole. Keeping my fingers crossed for 2 more months.
........
Cole, btw: 4-2, 1.74 ERA in 57 IP, 33 hits, 64K/11BB (5.2 H/9, 10.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9)
Last year: 11-4, 3.37 ERA in 123 IP, 92 hits, 153K/52BB (6.7 H/9, 11.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9)
Keep it up, Gerrit - I want the other guy but if the Pirates swipe him, then I need you to be great.
~G
Could I visualize The Edgar doing precisely what Rendon has done the last two years, under the same circumstances? For sure.
As to G's checklist ... "Everything Is Proceeding As I Have Forseen," as emperor Palpatine once said along with G.
One of the critical things is that field-level scouts are signing off, one after the other, on Gerrit Cole as the #1 overall. The Pirates will apparently take no flak for a Cole draft -- in fact, the flak they might fear could be that of taking an injured Rendon, especially when they already have a third baseman.
Peer pressure is bigger than you think in this situation. Tim Lincecum fell 10 slots mostly because people didn't want to be fired over guessing that one wrong. (If a man guesses wrong on Brandon Morrow or Andrew Miller he does not get fired for it -- "Hey, it's what I woulda done." But if he guesses wrong on Tim Lincecum it might get hung around his neck the rest of his career.)
Gerrit Cole is not only becoming a pitcher that the Pirates might covet; equally to the point, he's becoming a guy they have permission to select.
.
=== Wild Card ===
Both Cole and Rendon are represented by (gulp) Scott Boras.
If Boras plans to ask for money over slot, and plans to stick to it, and if back-channel he communicates that to the Pirates, then the M's might wind up with their choice after all.
And that choice might be determined by Boras' determination to hold one out with more alacrity than he does the other one. If Boras communicates 10% over slot for Cole but 40% over slot for Rendon...
.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
2
I like Rendon as the #1 talent, but a little more concerned about the injuries after reading a recent interview.
The reason Rendon can't play the field and his power is down is because of the shoulder injury. What I didn't know was that Rendon injured it STRETCHING.
I wonder if he is just a Snelling type that won't be able to stay healthy? The ankle injuries may have been able to be considered accidents, but the shoulder issue is a pretty mild way of stumbling into a significant injury.
3
Now you've even got me wondering about a Snelling scenario :- )
Funny thing, Edgar was considered very injury-prone for a long time. They moved him to DH not because he was a poor defender, but in an effort to keep him healthy.
Maybe they would need to draft Rendon as a DH... hm.
Wonder how they'd rule out a Snelling situation? The doctors can't test him for weak connective tissue, right G? It's not like he has Marfan.
4
http://www.piratesprospects.com/2011/04/interview-with-anthony-rendon.html
You had two major ankle injuries. Describe each of those injuries, and what exactly happened with each one?
The first one was my freshman year, super regional, LSU. I was going for a fly ball down the line, going towards their bullpen, and their warning track on the side wasn't hard dirt, it was more like mulch. My shortstop ran in front of me, he left a footprint. So I stepped in his footprint, which was about 6-8 inches deep, and I just rolled it inside there, turned it internally. Tore some ligaments, and we got those back. Second time, Team USA, I got picked off, I was running to second, I tried to stop and turn around. I planted my right foot and I planted it inside, I couldn't turn, my body kept going, and I just rolled it externally. So I broke it externally. They're two completely different injuries. People say that they're related to each other, he has a bad ankle, but they're two freak accidents that happened to the same ankle.
This year you've been kept off the field with a sore shoulder. What happened with the shoulder at the start of the year?
Coming in, coach said "You've got your ankle injuries out of the way, this should be your last one. I don't want no arm trouble from you." I guess during the Spring practices, before I was getting out there I was doing all these stretches, I was overcompensating, not trying to get hurt. I guess I was doing too much stretching, because I really didn't stretch much in the past. I was really like a couple stretches and go. I guess I was overcompensating, and I was doing too many stretches, and I guess I tried to overstretch. That's the only way to put it. I stretched too far, and I stretched too long, and a muscle strain just tweaked. It's been bothering me, but it's getting better. I'm on a throwing program right now, just taking it slow. You can't jump back in to things. If I throw one hard I could tweak it again, so I've just got to take it how it is, until I feel right again and go back out there.
---------------------------------------
People get hurt stretching, especially if they're not doin it on a regular basis before.
Neither of his ankle injuries are indicative of "oh, he just gets hurt easily." Try running full speed and putting your foot in an 8 inch hole and see what happens. Catch your cleats, twist your entire body around it and tell me if it is just you being fragile. Consider it more like a football injury. You wait for the broken leg to heal and then if they're 100%, they're 100%.
*shrugs* I don't have significant enough injury concerns with Rendon to pass. Even if he is "only" Scott Rolen (who has 6 seasons under 140 games played, not including his rookie cup of coffee) I think I could manage to be satisfied with that. When he's in the game I expect him to be stellar. I'm more confident in Rendon than I am in Ackley or Smoak (and than I was with them in college as well). I'll play a borderline HOFer 130 games a year and let the Adam Kennedy types play the other 30.
It'll work out. ;)
~G
5
And looking at it that way, the M's have the DH slot as *insurance* against a (perhaps less-likely) scenario of chronic dings.
Watching the tennis match, am back to viewing the dings as serendipity for the M's...
6
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2011/2611568.html
Right ahead of Sonny Gray. Hultzen throws 90-94, and his offspeed stuff has gotten killer, at least in college. He's gonna be a polished, fast mover.
I'm telling you, a LOT of teams are gonna be really happy in this draft.
Quote from #14, Matt Barnes: "How deep is 2011? Barnes would have been in the running to be top college pitcher drafted in 2010."
I believe that. Some of it is the new bats. Any good pitcher from last year looks phenomenal now. But there are some really good arms out there to be had.
Hultzen's one of em. I don't think he overtakes Cole barring a second half collapse of some sort, since Cole has a couple more feet on his FB and ALSO has nasty offspeed stuff, but I wouldn't scream and pull my hair out if the Pirates took Rendon #1 and we grabbed Hultzen. He just keeps improving both stuffwise and resultswise.
Maybe the Pirates will take Hultzen #1 - he's not repped by Boras right?
~G
7
If Cole hadn't been equally awesome, he'd be making it interesting. I'd still take Cole as a higher percentage play based on the way he's consolidated his talent into skill this season.
Good point that Pittsburgh might reach for Hultzen on signability, though. Then the Ms would have to actually choose between Rendon and Cole.
Folks should check out the bottom of that Top-50 as well, since there's a pretty good chance we'll get one of them at #62, the way we grabbed Littlewood at #67 last year. (Littlewood, he of the 8 hits in his first 17 pro ABs, that is.)
Anyone you particularly like down there, G?
8
Ya, but Hultzen's K/9 soars above anyone else in Division 1 college this year. Its better than Lincecum's walk year and only a little below Strasburg's.
Maybe the command+changeup is much better than being advertised? 90-94 is a power fastball from a lefty.
Also, I'm wondering why Cole hasn't been more dominant if the fastball+offspeed is so highly rated? It not from lack of throwing it, because I've seen pitch charts with a ton of changeups mixed in.. Sometimes the consensus best talent doesn't end up being the best MLBer.. Cole has massive tools, but the performance hasn't been overwhelming.
I really want to know what is up with Hultzen's 15 K/9 in Division 1 college. That is a rediculous mark. Anyone have video?
9
Hes the #1 talent without question. OBP+15-25 HRs+defense at 3rd is too good to pass on.
Is injuring yourself so seriously over stretching really that common though? If I was more confident he could stay healthy enough to be the younger version of Edgar (a great comp), I'd take him in a millisecond.
Hultzen is very tempting.. He has been more dominant than Tim Lincecum was.
10
There are a few videos floating around, though most are from last year or "ain't he wonderful" promo pieces.
Here's one taken from behind the plate (last year):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atHVL_Orkz0
Here are the others:
http://www.google.com/search?q=Danny+Hultzen&tbo=p&tbm=vid&source=vgc&hl...
11
Thanks for the link. It looks like this is the only video, a little hard to tell what he throws, but you can see some swings over the changeup and some high heat:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIbCvVqgCx0
I'm really hoping we land Rendon and if not Rendon, then Hultzen. Cole is a bit risky for me. Why is he only striking out a little over 10 K/9 with the new bats?
12
Just with a different throwing hand. Ben struck out 153 guys in 113 innings his junior year, but Hultzen's threatening to crush that number. Both guys have FBs in the low 90s and a second weapon in the curve. Hultzen's trying to be more of a 3 pitch guy than Sheets was (IIRC, Ben basically showed a change and a slider but didn't feature either).
Some fascinating arms in this draft for sure.
~G
13
Jered Weaver also struck out 13+K/9 in his walk year. Price and Verlander did as well.
13+ K/9 happen once or twice every year in college. Bauer is the other guy this year with a 13+ K/9.
Lincecum struck out well over 14 K/9.
Hultzen is close to 15 K/9. The only division one SP I can come up with better than that is Stephen Strasburg.
14
•Law hears that the Mariners will take either Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon with the second pick in the draft, depending on which player is available after the Pirates select first overall.•The D'Backs, who pick third, covet Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen, according to Law. •The Orioles are 'extremely likely' to take a college pitcher with the fourth overall pick. They could take Hultzen or Georgia Tech left-hander Jed Bradley.•The Royals (5th pick) are also likely to take a college arn and they're interested in UConn right-hander Matt Barnes, Hultzen and Bradley.•The D'Backs (7th pick) and Cubs (9th pick) have Vanderbilt right-hander Sonny Gray high on their internal rankings, according to Law.
If this is the case, I'm really rooting for Pittsburg to take Cole. I want Rendon first, might prefer Hultzen over Cole.
15
16
I have to admit, though position players are almost always better bets than pitchers to stay healthy, Rendon may be the exception. His talent is undeniable, but being broken all the time could, uh, hamper him a bit.
Though Scott Rolen, my comp for his career potential, has done pretty well despite being injury prone himself.
So far, points in Jack's column. If Hultzen turns out to be the safest and most talented option, then props to him for seeing it and being willing to trade Pineda to upgrade the offense instead.
Hultzen struck out seven in 4+ innings today, btw - 6 swinging. He let three guys on in the 5th, though, and Medina allowed em all to score, inflating Danny's line quite a bit. Took a cue from Delabar last night and gave up a 3-run dinger.
~G