1
Gotcha. Good to hear.
Bedard vs Cleveland: Technical diagnosis, 2
Q. First root cause of the 6 runs: you say the ball was up in the zone?
A. Check out the strike zone plot from Brooks.
Or, here's the direct link within the browser.
It's a little tough to do, but if you magnify the image on your screen and look for all the light blue squares (the hits), you'll see there are 10 of them -- 9 that are at the centerline or higher, and other one almost waist-high, and centered.
That's the definition of poor location. The Tribe got 10 pitches up, and got base hits out of them.
.
Q. How was the ump'ing?
A. You'll notice six pitches inside the strike zone called balls, another 3 within a ball's width called balls, and zero pitches outside the zone called strikes. Here, let's chart that out:
- -6 - in zone, called balls
- -9 - within a baseball's width of black, called balls
- +0 - balls outside the zone, called strikes
If you don't think that 9 pitches taken away, and 0 given to you, matter very much, you're obviously not a pitcher.
.
Q. How was Cleveland?
A. Insanely hot. I am sick and tired of watching good pitches get squared up.
.........
I know you guys don't want to hear this, but a BIG part of winning and losing streaks is simply the teams you play at the time.
The M's will beat up on Kansas City or Tampa or Oakland or somebody, and people will wonder how they corrected things, and nothing will have changed.
In basketball, a huge part of winning is simply hoping the other guys miss their shots. People go, "what's up with Bedard?", and they totally wave off what Texas has been doing in their park.
It's not an excuse, but the Indians are 7-3 now and they just did a great job.
..........
Well, either Cleveland is hot right now, or Bedard's tipping. From a scouting standpoint, I was very annoyed by the great swings they got on quality pitches, both FB and curve.
.
Q. But you say BABIP luck played a part too?
A. You guys believe in BABIP theory, right? Do you believe there's such a thing as a pitcher giving up a .600 BABIP by having plus, or minus, command?
Where is the fangraphs column for "command"? How much does it affect BABIP?
Cleveland put 15 balls in play against Bedard. 6 hit defenders, and 9 fell in for hits. (There was also a 360-foot homer into the corner in LF.)
.
Q. You're sure he really didn't simply get splattered?
A. :shrug: you believe in xFIP theory or not?
Bedard fanned 6 guys, walked 1, gave up 0 homers (adjusting for the Oil Can Corner bloop), got 3 outs on grounders, 0 on flyouts.
Suppose a guy did that every game: 1.5 strikeouts per inning, all the outs on the ground. Any chance he wouldn't win 20 over the course of a season? ... wait, M's offense here, bad question.
.
Q. Any other SP's get hit early?
A. A few...
- John Lackey - 15.58 ERA
- Brad Penny - 11.17
- Jake Westbrook - 9.90
- Javier Vazquez - 8.64
- Chad Billingsley - 8.00
- Francisco Liriano - 7.70
- Clay Buchholz - 7.20
- Ryan Dempster - 6.59
- Max Scherzer - 5.73
Justin will confirm for you that all those guys are on my fantasy team.
.
Q. Dr's Diagnosis?
A. We sat down to look at the situation in an objective frame of mind....
Now that we're done analyzing, lemme put my fan's cap on: Subjectively, I'm delighted to know that that there's nothing fundamentally wrong with Erikkk.
As James said, "I believe in going through the losing. It makes the winning a lot more fun."
........
It suddenly occurs that --- > a real doctor would have to do this: look through the microscope with his feelings disengaged, but then be allowed to smile when he gives the family the good news about the daughter's blood work. Must be an odd life.
.
Q. Dr's Prognosis?
A. Bedard needs to just keep pitching, which he will.
Throw the same pitches next week, maybe keeping the ball down a little better (until 2 strikes), and from a technical standpoint he measures out just like he's ever done.
I don't imagine that Twins fans are bailing on Francisco Liriano, and I'm not bailing on Erikkkk. Think I'll go buy a jersey with 9 K's in the name.
.
Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
2
in case it wasn't clear.
3
I think Bedard's game plan was also out of whack. He was basically throwing only FBs with a few changeups mixed in the first run through the lineup. The curve didn't really show up until the second AB's. While he's still working on the change, he should stay FB-curve to start and work the change in later.
Bedard seems to be committed to the change, and it's probably a good thing. It got hit, but he also got some swings and misses off it. Might help keep him healthy and let him pitch to contact a bit more, go deeper in games.
4
n/m
5
I had comPLETEly forgotten about that....
Ah, man...... :-)
6
Without verifying, as it were .... That is sooooo often the case in such situations.
will take your word. Interesting.
7
I was so hoping you'd say something funnny in response to this guy. :)
And...for what it's worth, I agree with your basic analysis that Bedard is probably going to be fine eventually, as long as he stays healthy. I think he's a little off right now mostly because he's working hard on a new pitch so he doesn't have to throw his curve as often...that curve is thrashing his arm and he wants to make his career last longer.
8
Serioiusly. What should we really expect for a guy who hasn't pitched, let alone at the major league level, in a year and a half. He hasn't pitched with a fully connected limb for nearly 3 years.
I'm just thrilled to see him on the mound. When he gets comfortable in his body again, look out.
Atta boy Erik!
9
Yep, I think you're focusing too much on analysis and not enough on karma. I'll take the hit on this one, though I'll add I do feel like Bedard is 3 or 4 bad starts away from declaring himself injured.
10
I don't mean this as something overtly negative...but what did Bedard do that makes you think he is bad karma?
I also don't understand the accusation that he goes around "declaring himself injured" when he has a patch of starts that don't go his way. Every time he's "declared himself injured"...he's gone to the doctor and they've done surgery because they found something wrong. It's not like he's making this stuff up...the last time he was injured...he had an ERA of 2.40 or so...so I'm not seeing how he was in a bad patch of starts and quit, claiming injury.
11
The karma reference is an inside joke - a declaration in that format has previously resulted in players almost immediately breaking out with career years.
He may have been legitimately hurt with the M's, I suggest you ask about his early years with the Orioles.
12
I know the media loves to get on Bedard because Bedard doesn't like talking to the media...and I know that the fans and the media like to spread mendacious rumors about Bedard being a wuss who will only pitch if the games matter and he feels absolutely 100%...but based on what I've seen in Seattle, I don't buy any of it, to be honest. I think Bedard's always had damage in his connective tissues...from a very young age at least...and always been pitching through a lot of pain and he knows very well when he should stop before things get much worse from experience. I mean, he started dealing with injuries way back in his minor league days...minor stuff...but swarms of it. And from what I saw in Seattle, he went as far as he could go befor ebeing dragged off the field kicking and screaming and winding up on the MRI table. Twice. I do, however, apologize about missing the humor in the short messages...inside jokes are dangerous...LOL I see it now that I look back at it though...I used to say the same kind of stuff about Ibanez and Edgar and the like as they were aging.
13
We'll have to wait and see how many innings Bedard throws this year. I guess the one difference is that he's on short term contracts with the M's, whereas he was a club-controlled slave to a last place team in the O's days.