Any Resemblance to a MOTO is Strictly Coincidental. Not

PROPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK who has come out of the gate looking like the AL's next 300/400/500 cleanup hitter.

In four games against four tough pitchers, he has a diamond-hard .529 OBP and .615 SLG, but it's not the results as such that matter.  It's the way he is controlling the strike zone, and the fact that he is beating good pitching.

Above, you see the 93 jam pitch that he blasted back up against the CF wall.

93 mph from a LHP is equal to a 95 mph fastball from a RH.  And 95 inside is the equivalent of 97 outside.

Smoak took a plus-plus-plus fastball and absolutely crushed it.  There is a difference between these two things:

  1. A mistake hitter, like Dave Kingman or Mark Reynolds
  2. A good hitter who happens to have power, like Edgar Martinez and Justin Smoak

Four games, five hits, four walks, three doubles of which two coulda been homers.  He's looked like Edgar with more power.

.......

How is my "greed for success" complaint doing?  It was never a problem from the right side.  Let's see if the hot RH start -- and the early acceptance it buys him -- now relaxes him into his game from the left side also.

.

SLOPS TO JACK CUST for flatly refusing, as all MLB(TM) sluggers do, to learn to bunt.  This "I Get Paid To Drive In Runs!" conceit, along with Chicken McNuggets and Comcast Inc., are what is causing the fall of our society.

That shift is going to hurt him bad.  And all he has to do is drop a bunt down and take a single.  He won't do it even with runners on base.  Cust could bunt 4 or 5 times and then they wouldn't shift him any more.

Does he want to slug .480 for the rest of his career or .430?  Then why not the five bunts, Jack.

I wonder if Japanese sluggers refuse to bunt in order to refute the shift?  IceX, Taro?

But edit to add, we notice that Cust's BABIP last year was sky-high?!  .... what ?!  HOW?   :blinks:

.

SLOPS TO THE 2010 MOTO which put up these lines, split out by batting order # for the ballclub:

  • 3 hitter - .227/.303/.402
  • 4 hitter - .238/.292/.375
  • 5 hitter - .210/.259/.297

We don't have to wait a month, to know that in 2011, we're getting a boatload more than that.

These guys should make a run towards a .380 OBP, and they can hit.  The 2011 Mariners are simply a different team, which wasn't real hard for Zduriencik to accomplish.  There are Jack Custs around.

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PROPS TO MILTON BRADLEY for coming out of the gate also controlling the strike zone the Milton Bradley of old did.  Which he seems to be, the MB of a few years ago, give or take 10 homers a year.  If he swung the bat like this all year, he'd probably hit .280 / .380 / .450 in Safeco, and OBP is the single most important stat in baseball.

If you had told Dr. D, before the season, that these things would occur:

  • MB would have (a semblance of) his game back
  • Justin Smoak would have his legs under him
  • Miguel Olivo would be comfortable in the AL and in Seattle
  • Michael Pineda would be in the rotation
  • Chone Figgins would be in a good mood
  • Nothing major would go wrong early

Then I'd have shrugged and said that a tough 81+ win ballclub was in sight -- and that a pennant race was distinctly possible.

All the markers are wayyyyy UP.  Baseball is on in Seattle!  Let us rejoice and be glad in it :- )

 

See you at the ballpark, er, hi-def screen,

Dr D

Comments

1
ghost's picture

David Pauley was DEFINITELY off his normal game yesterday...wild up in the zone with everything...couldn't locate his curve ball...had no change-up (usually his out pitch, such as it is)...yet he only gave up one run and still only needed 19 pitches to get out of the jam in the 6th. Aaron "Laffey-Taffy" was...well...Aaron Laffey...it can have some value to have a guy in your pen who won't embarrass you for two-three innings when you need it. See: Halama, John.

3
muddyfrogwater's picture

Yep, it's official. We've got a baseball boogie man right in the heart of the order. Yes sir, he already scares the crap out of opposing teams. Old Nolan Ryan was too afraid to look. You could see it, he was uncomfortable and figity in his seat when Smoak was at the plate. Why? Because he knows that Justin Smoak may be the best hitter on the field when his team plays the M's. Is Smoak a .280 bopper or a .320 monster? We'll see. 

4

Nolan Ryan would definitely have been able to contain his bladder, but we are in the prediction bidness at SSI... 
Though we don't predict that Smoak's 300/400/500 will occur this year, we do predict that it will occur some year, and the fact is that Smoak is, right now, swinging the bat great ... I will root for his 300/400/500 to occur ASAP, and it ain't like we're rootin' for Michael Saunders here... Smoak is a certified baseball pheenom...
Stick around MFG, you're missin' a good game ;- )

5

...but I think muddy might be serious. I'll be charitable and take it literally because he makes a good point. The last thing you ever want to do is give a division rival a young superstar. Not only because it makes them better on paper, but it is extremely painful since every time you play them or hear the players name you kick yourself for shipping him away.
The Rangers may very well be regretting that trade already.

8

When Miguel Tejada was with the A's, he had about 310 PA's against each divisional opponent.

9
muddyfrogwater's picture

Well, I could have just said Twinkle Twinkle Little Star How I Wonder What You Are. But that wouldn't be very intellectually stimulating.

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