Not like we need him in Seattle this very minute (though I don't doubt he's better than Chris Ray already), but in the minors system the full-season pitchers have been exceedingly "blah" so far.
Two of the guys I had very high hopes for -- Josh Lueke and Brian Moran -- have been the biggest busts of the year. Stephen Pryor has been injured. Cortes is just going to be boom/bust until he finds some consistency (not holding my breath). Brandon Maurer and Forrest Snow got me intrigued, but it didn't last. Josh Fields? Long since lost interest.
Scott Patterson I'll keep plugging for, but at 32 even if everything pans out perfectly he's just an extra bullpen guy for a few years. ("Reject Ray; Promote Patterson" -- wiffle ball battle cry: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/did-doug-fister-just-leap-plateau#c....)
Until the teenagers (Taijuan Walker and Juan Vicente Campos) arrive in the summer, Paxton is the most interesting thing we've got.
So big time geek stuff tonight!
The Clinton site with a neat little page on James Paxton's pro debut on Wednesday night.
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Dr. D is as enthused (or not) about high draft picks* as the next guy ... G-Money was the guy who had Nick Franklin nailed, not yrs. truly. But when James Paxton got here and started throwing, SSI was stunned on two fronts:
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1) Paxton's mechanics are just about as good as I have ever seen from a LHP, from Mark Langston down to Cliff Lee his ownself.
You probably see great mechanics and think, "he'll stay healthy." But for me the knee-jerk reaction is, great mechanics = starter's rhythm and plus command inside the strike zone.
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2) I'd have bet you 10:1 that Paxton was going to need 100 innings to get back even to 92 mph. Au contraire: with that Sidd Finch windup and the ball coming lazily up off the back foot, Paxton was lighting it up at 95 mph in an opening bullpen.
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Those two things are very different from what you see out of your garden-variety college LHP. ... the scouts' reports, "he's throwing bricks up there" and all that are fine, but you do get those w/r/t many college pitchers. The plaudits are reassuring, as opposed to decisive. That Michaelangelo motion and that easy mid-90's velo are what interest Dr. D.
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=== Cases In Point, Dept. ===
Tim Lincecum started 13 games in the minors before taking over the National League. Two (2) games in high A ball, six in AA, and five in AAA. The pitcher holds the ball, gentlemen.
Justin Verlander started 20 games in the minors -- 13 in A+, 7 in AA and then it was time to overmatch AL hitters. ... granted, he destroyed minors hitters, as did Lincecum. Obviously, Paxton will have to run gaudy K/BB's in order to start for the Mariners in 2012.
The Angels let Jered Weaver rot in the minors for 28 whole starts . About what Paxton would get if he stayed in the minors for all of 2011.
David Price also had 28 starts in the minors. Note that his minors stats were not overwhelming. 9.0 k, 3.1 bb, 0.8 hr in the minors. That's real good but not dazzling by any stretch.
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=== Sufficient Unto the Morrow Is the Evil Thereof, Dept. ===
All of the clamor to keep Michael Pineda in the minors missed the point: if a pitcher is throwing the stuffing out of the ball, you better use him before he gets hurt. In six years he might be dead, never mind down by -5 mph.
SSI's script calls for a 50-50 chance that James Paxton uses that lefty yakker to detonate two or three levels this year, and if he does, then in 2012 he's in there.
But first things first. A K per inning there, Pax.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Am also a bit interested in Patterson, though personally would advise caution about the Chris Young principle...
Being tall, shortening the distance to the plate, throwing downhill, those are all things that make a guy's fastball better than it is...
But in isolation, "Joe's fastball is deceptively quick" can only take a guy so far... with Doug Fister, attributes one and two are Location and Change Speed, along with makeup ... only as a supplemental point do we suddenly realize his fastball is quicker than it looks...
Assumption here is that Scott Patterson has little *other than* a deceptively quick fastball, and such would be a recipe for embarrassment in the AL...
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Could be wrong of course. And not saying that Patterson isn't worth a follow.
:cpoints:
Would not surprise at all to hear that K-Pax was wild, or that he's down in velo (like RRS under load), or what have you...
But for me, he needs about three (3) games of 94 mph carnage in order to hit the radar as one of baseball's top, near-ready prospects... in three games, his chances* at ML impact could go from 40-50% to 75% in my book...
"Career arcs" and "let's see him do it in AAA" and "how does his changeup look" are going to be completely beside the point with this guy... the only question is whether his stuff is live and whether he is throwing both pitches for steeeerikes.. if so, SSI will cheerfully go nuts...
Go baby :- )
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*assuming no health Q's along the way
Ya, it is kind of odd that guys with such live arms *and high-minors success* are dropping like flies. Not sure what to make of it.
Cortes without a doubt needs to fix that "creative" deceleration he has, of trying to follow thru while standing straight up. No chance of gaining control while he's doing that.
But Lueke, what happened there? Karma, I guess :- )
Martin and I will just play wiffle ball without you. :)
Cheerfully admit that maybe Patterson's stuff won't get big-leaguers out, but with his track record in the minors, I'd prefer finding out to watching Ray chuck more of his 93-mph heaters that don't fool anyone. Just to see.
Ironically, he was done in by walks in his two cups o'coffee (grand total of 22 batters faced; only gave up 2 hits and struck out 7), whereas he's had low walk rates in the minors, and hasn't walked a single batter at AA this season.
And have you seen Brendan Ryan's wiffle vid on the net?
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On a list of five guys I'd like to try in place of Chris Ray, you could certainly talk me into Scott Patterson as one of the first five bro'...
The BB improvement is definitely an ear-perker, as it were... maybe we get two Jamey Wrights in one year?
Without Pineda, the 2011 Mariners would be in last place with no hope for the playoffs.
With Pineda, the 2011 Mariners are.... in last place with no hope for the playoffs.
Pineda made 3 starts during the FA window, in which the M's went 2-1. This would be different if the M's had a realistic shot at contention, where 2 wins could be the difference for the playoffs. That is not the case for the roster that management chose to open the season with.
Pineda is no more or less of a prospect having his big league debut on April 5th instead of April 22nd. The excitement of his April 5th start would have been just as exciting on the 22nd. The M's are no more or less of a contender with the 2 extra wins. The early callup achieved nothing except for blowing a FA year.
... is allowed to take a shot at making something of the 2011 season.
That still is the question today, whether at 9-and-15, with the offensive challenges, Zduriencik should punt the season.
Quite a bit easier for fans to do so, than for the guys counting the gate receipts to do so. :- )
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The players know whether upper management is in the fight or not.
Sometimes, even for a dead team (which I'm not ready to declare the Mariners dead yet, although I agree the odds are exceedingly remote), it means a lot that the management put the best talent on the field at their own peril...if they hadn't put Pineda in the big leagues, I think that would have said a lot to the players about how management wants to treat them. Not just from the perspective of winning games...but from a fairness perspective. Pineda earned his rotation spot...holding him back to screw him out of a year of higher salary is rather brutal under these circumstances.
at this point. And like Doc says looking to save a FA year six years from now on a pitcher is folly. Dont you think the national fans wish they had those 2-3 months of healthy Strasburg mowing down mlbers insteady of minor leaguers? Yeah the Nationals were going no where last year, who cares, baseball is for fun. Now whoppie the Nationals saved a seventh year, at least 2 of which Stras will be recovering from tommy john surgry, and may never be the same again (Jesse Foppert anyone?). They screwed there fans out of an extra couple months of Stras awesomeness for what now? And the injury REEKS of karma ;)
But the more serious point is that Pineda NEEDS to be up here learning how to get major leaguers out so that next year or 2013 he is ready to be Ace #2 for a pennet chasing team! Being in AAA he is learning nothing about the MLB, adding the extra year really doesnt get you much with picthers AND it robs us, the fans, of some real joy! I say Jackie Z made a GREAT decision!
Paxton with a QS and loss in his pro debut. Pitched six full, leaving behind 0-3.
6 IP and 6 K
3 ER and the L
4 BB, 1 HR, several line drives
Kicks the can down the road to start 2. As far as us 'net rats beginning any kind of dweeb-triangulation Tholian Web.
Per Conor Dowley: "Paxton now done for the LumberKings going in to the 7th. His line again: 4 H, 3 R (1 ER), 1 HR, 6 K’s, 4 BB, 9 ground outs, 3 air outs."
Only one earned run and 6 Ks!
Don't have the pitch-by-pitch, but we have this:
D. J. Fitzgerald strikes out swinging.
Sergio Burruel strikes out swinging.
D. J. Fitzgerald strikes out swinging.
Richard Jones strikes out swinging.
Smaily Borges strikes out swinging.
Sergio Burruel called out on strikes.
Not sure where the 1 ER comes from, it's pretty clearly 3 ER. But the main thing is that even though he had some wobbly at-bats, he was mostly fooling them.
Awesome quotes from Z from Ryan Divish (hat-tip Jay Yencich) http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2011/04/27/a-quick-notes-on-the-...
Said GM Jack Zduriencik: "His [Paxton's] last couple of outings were really, really good. It's just a matter of when he needed to be ready after having the long layoff. Like anything else, I don't expect miracles tonight. Just the fact that he's on the mound for the first time, he's going to be amped up. It's baby steps for him, get the innings and get the work in and see where it goes. Everyone is really excited about what he's shown."
Paxton was throwing games at extended spring training and looked dominant.
"His last outing he was 94-95 with a power curveball," Zduriencik said. "They said he was really, really good. Again this is just a step. Who knows what will happen tonight. You have to be cautious with understanding that he hasn't done this in a long time."
Zduriencik also raved about last year's top pick Taijuan Walker, a hard-throwing right-hander.
"The other night he had eight strikeouts in four innings, he was 95-96-97," Zduriencik said.
I assume that Taijuan and Campos won't hit the beaches until June at Everett (being 19 and all), but I am definitely psyched for that. Two chances for another Pineda.
Paxton's K's were against the team's weakest hitters. But who cares! The kid is pitching, went 6, and it sure beats getting lit up by those guys. As good a debut as one could reasonably hope for.
Has "as much upside as any pitcher in the minors."
"Explosive arsenal" and "USES four pitches" with a slider already his K pitch and the potential for a strikeout 76 change curve and 81 changeup.
All the sources worth trusting are definitely putting him in the Paxton tier. M's do appear to have two legit monster SP prospects.
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Agree with Zduriencik's take that you've got to give Paxton some time to find his touch. We just saw it with Bedard.
I got the straight stuff from a source at the game.
"Pax is great! Was up to 94, great tilt, heavy fastball, good breaker. Might have trouble repeating his delivery"
Lonnie
Two? I'd up that to three, and possibly four. Paxton, Walker, Campos, and Snow.
Lonnie
Wiffle ball it is!
Keep on trucking SP - nothing like given it a shot to get back to the majors. Beats most other jobs in the meantime by a mile. Never know - just need a little bit of baseball gods magic to get a little more than 2 cups of coffee. Thanks Spectator for being a fan and keepin the talk up for SP. Maybe he would crash - maybe not - but sure would love to find out.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t104&t...
BTW - I started following Patterson way back here
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/sports/baseball/17yankees.html
He's been nothing but a workhorse trying to make it. I think he may have PO'd Joe G when he was the last man cut from the 25 man roster for the Yanks - but he is older and wiser now and from all I can tell a fan favorite everywhere he goes.
http://www.theportlandbeavers.com/?p=436
Took my son on a business trip and stopped by Wilkes-Barre Scranton AAA Yanks to see if we could catch him in a game. He had just gotten back from his stint with the yanks in the majors. Didn't know the guy from "adam" but he came over and said hello to a few fans including my son and I after the game (didn't get to see him pitch though). Couldn't have been nicer.
Almost a little bit like The Rookie. He did a pre-game show for the Portland beavers. Loves baseball and can't let it go - so here's to the guy that refuses to let the dream die.
Here's to wiffle ball fans everywhere - pros and amateurs alike!
Martin's guy Scott Patterson is the one I was referring to the other day. Pretty much the pitching equivalent of Mike Wilson.
Clawed his way all the way up from undrafted, through the indy leagues, to the majors, and struck out 7 of the 22 MLB batters he faced and only gave up 2 hits, but he walked a few too many and hasn't gotten another shot since 08.
Like Wilson last year, he got shipped down to AA to suit the org's needs. He's just wiping out the hitters down there:
14.1 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 17 K
I'm not saying he'd be any great star, but as an alternative to Chris Ray chucking in hittable fastballs, why not I say? Martin's made a great case that he's a solid citizen and wiffle ball afficianado.
I'll try to write more about the guy when I have more time. In the meantime, he has 10.7 K/9 and an infinite K/BB ratio. Just the facts.
5 IP, 1 ER, though most of it was an amusing exercise in damage control. :- )
Agree with Zduriencik's take, that with all that time off, the first step is to find rhythm and release point. Very similar to Bedard this year, no doubt.
6 innings, 6 hits, 4 walks, 10 Ks, 1 run. He's working on tuning that 400 horsepower engine of his. It's been fun watching Bedard recently and it may be just as fun to watch Paxton shortly. A few more starts on this progression line and he may be promoted to AA.
We could use at least one (more) minor league pitcher who can live up to their billing.
~G
... after all that time off, he's delivering the 60% strikeout, 1.50 ERA type showing that you want to see from a guy like that.
Eyes slideways. If he's who we think he might be, he's quickly going to begin stringing these starts and climbin' the ladder.
Paxton had 5 swinging-strike-threes in the first two innings. He'll be facing more advanced hitters soon.
Nick Franklin had 3 hits for the 2nd night in a row and got his 7th SB (vs. 1 CS). He's out of his mini-slump and has 10 XBH, 20 BB -- .261/.380/.409.
Rich Poythress got his 11th double; Carlos Triunfel got his 10th double and Kyle Seager got 2 HR. They are now slugging .483, .470 and .488 respectively (and they're not in the "hitter's paradise" anymore).
Of course, Ackley had a single, a double and a walk, as others have covered.
And Franklin Gutierrez is not a prospect any more, but he had a single, a double and two walks, so his offensive line in 8 games of rehab is: .286/.344/.500, which translates pretty closely to what we found for "pre-ailment" Guti in 09 and early 10.
For Mister Paxton tonight - all swinging. 5 ground outs to one fly out. On the year in A-ball:
1st outing: 5 IP, 4 hits, 4BB/6K
2nd outing: 5 IP, 5 hits, 4BB/3K
3rd: 6 IP, 6 hits, 4BB/10K
4th: 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 3BB/7K
5th: 6 IP, 3 hits, 2BB/12K
I agree with Spec - promotion definitely coming. Probably up to AA, skip the Cal League entirely once he feels stretched out, in command of his pitches, and comfortable.
So, like...now. ;)
~G
:-O
The others couldn't hit what he was throwing with a paddle. All swinging. :) 4th and 5th, all the outs were swinging Ks. I do love to see that out of my top-tier pitching prospect.
~G
And that implies he shouldn't be in low A ball. :) Get him up to at least AA, stat.
KIRO-710 ran his call of the last pitch in the first inning... something like,
"1-2 pitch... called! strike! three! on the outside corner! Strikeout for James Paxton ... K Pax! And he strikes out the side in the first inning - "
Probably it's just too obvious a nickname for him to be called anything else :- )