The Seattle Mariners Find Their #2

PROPS TO MICHAEL PINEDA, who threw 69% strikes with wicked stuff.  And threw 11 swinging strikes in 84 pitches -- 13%.

As Bill Krueger aptly pointed out, after Pineda's wipeout 1st inning, the Rangers took to defensive hitting -- trying put the ball in play on the first pitch, so that they wouldn't be abused in deep counts and strikeouts.  

Dr. D thoroughly enjoyed Krueger's report of the game-within-the-game down on the field, the mano-a-mano.  He enjoyed even more the idea of the Rangers tucking their tails between their legs after watching one blinkin' inning of this kid.

.......

The result of this is going to be a bunch of 8- and 9-inning outings from Pineda.

Win the battle, lose the war:  the loss stings, but the Mariners just found their #2 behind Felix.  For six years.

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PROPS TO BROOKSBASEBALL, which is back up this year.

It reports a mere -1 degrees horizontal swerve on Pineda's fastball.  

What that means is --- > that Pineda's fastball has much less armside run than most RHP's.  In effect, Pineda's fastball has a 2-to-4 inch gloveside break, compared to other RHP fastballs.

Dave Allen has demonstrated that RHP armside run is what causes RHP's problems against lefty hitters; the ball breaks onto the barrels of their bats.

The eyes confirm the "trueness" of Pineda's fastball.  It is naturally shaped to jam LH hitters.  

Granted, this isn't unique; maybe 25% (? guessing) of RHP's get on top of the ball well enough to avoid armside run.  But the point is, it's the guys who do have a lot of armside run, who do have to worry about LH hitters.  Pineda is not one of these.

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Brooks reported Pineda's fastball as averaging 93.9 mph, with a top of 98 mph.  That would have placed #5 in the American League last year:

  • 95.4 - Verlander
  • 94.6 - Price
  • 94.1 - Buchholz
  • 94.1 - Felix
  • 93.9 - Pineda
  • 93.7 - Liriano
  • 93.5 - Greinke
  • 93.5 - Sabathia

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PROPS TO PINEDA'S COMMAND WITHIN THE STRIKE ZONE.  Pineda threw his power curve 27 times for 19 strikes, and he located it to different parts of the plate.  Believe this:  not very many ML pitchers can locate their breaking pitches.  A lot of them, such as Chris Ray and David Aardsma, cannot locate their fastballs.

Pineda threw only two pitches, and of course, needed only two.  He would be able to pitch for twenty years with these pitches, if he were able to throw 93-97 mph all twenty years.  

He throws six primary pitches:

  • Fastball on the black or outside it (to avoid any possibility of a hard hit)
  • Fastball up the ladder (for a K)
  • Fastball in on the hands (for weak contact)
  • Power curve away, for a K
  • Power curve breaking into the dirt, for a garbage swing or called ball
  • Power curve up, for a called strike
  • Challenge fastball (this isn't a primary pitch)

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PROPS TO PINEDA'S KILLER INSTINCT.  You can see right away:  he likes to whipsaw hitters between the slider and the high fastball, both starting on the same plane.

Pineda wants strikeouts.  He wants to miss bats.  He means you harm.

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SLOPS TO THE UMP.  Think Pineda was being denied the benefit of the doubt?  He was.  Here is Brooks' strike zone plot of the game.  Remember, the only colors that count are the pure green and red ones:

Pineda had five strike calls blown, four of them right in the heart of the plate -- all of them breaking pitches, IIRC.  Maybe the ump was confused by their quality; this sometimes happens.

Did Pineda get the strike calls back on blown "ball" calls?  Definitely not.  The only strike calls outside the box were within 2" of the zone -- he got 4 of 9 pitches called when one ball's width of the zone.  He got no other strike calls outside the zone.

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The ump did the same to Ogando.  Both pitchers had to get a ton of the strike zone, and even then, it might not get called.

I don't know if Brian O'Nora has a real high ump ERA, but tonight he was the only friend the hitters had.  

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Anyway, it wasn't the worst ump'ing night we've seen.  Despite O'Nora and despite the Arlington ballpark -- we saw an elite-class pitchers' duel.

The Rangers are a load right now, it was a vacuum-tight pitchers' duel and it could have gone either way, 50-50.

Pineda throws like that every time out, he fans 8 per game, walks 1+ and has a 0+ homer rate.  At the All-Star Game, not All-Star break.

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Cheerio,

Dr D

Comments

1

Joke.
Kinda.
I only get to see highlights and read the analysis, but it sure looks like he was a few near-misses and close calls from completely shutting them down.
85 pitches to go 6.0, first time on an MLB mound, in the park that even Cliff Lee had trouble adjusting to, against the biggest, meanest bats in the AL.
Won't do it every night, but it will help that his game is so simple, and he knows exactly what to do to execute it, right?

2

Pineda might be great, but he's no Felix. Two in the M's rotation might be the peak for every other SP in the MLB actually.

4
CA's picture

Watched both guys this series and was impressed with some things, not as much with others.
Pineda has an electric fb, and with more consistent mechanics, should be able to dominate with that pitch.  I was not as impressed with the slider/hard curve. I would like to see him choose a break, either closer to the true and more reliable slider, or choke it back some and gain some downward tilt, and change of pace.
The change-up was poorly executed, but vital long-term and I see no reason to abandon it.
Good to see that he has what looks like a good attitude and mound presence, looks to be a blue-chipper.
Bedard looked pretty decent considering the lay off. I hope and expect to see him gain a few inches on the fb, which sets up his success, he has to be able to challenge up in the zone to be effective.
His breaking pitch was inconsistent but certainly showed flashes of nastiness.
New to me, was his change-up. I don't recall him throwing many in the past. Right now, its not a big-league pitch, and from what I saw, its not even a Community College pitch. He was tipping it badly, both with grip and arm action, I hope someone on staff picks that up for him.
He may be prepping for life as an aging lefty which I understand. To me, at this time, a cutter would be a pretty effective pitch for him.
In all, I was pleased with both, and see no reason to doubt them moving forward.
The rest of the team, offense in particular, is embarrassing again and I agree that something more legitimate should have been done this off-season to fix that.
Bad luck? I can't agree, more like bad offensive players and I'm tiring of the same old slop (Figgins is killing us) thrown out there with promises of next year.
Next year will come around and we will still be 2 bats short of winning. We have to start removing some nice players and upgrade their spots. Figgins, Guti,left field, etc.

5

Good line.  
I remember when the M's dealt for Jeff Fassero, who was running about a 4:1 K ratio at the time, Chuck Armstrong saying "We want a #2 who is number two only because Randy is number one."

6

Won't do it every night, but it will help that his game is so simple, and he knows exactly what to do to execute it, right?

This is a point that evades the observers constantly:  that Pineda's basic game is already fully evolved.
Already Michael Pineda can throw his fastball consistently on the black, can jam hitters, can hit them with the slider and then come back with a letter-high fastball.
I mean, of course he can tune the command in even further, and once he gets his change where he wants it we'll be talking real destruction.  But it never ceases to amaze how a pitcher like that can parachute in, lay everybody waste, and the next day people are stuck-on-stats, going over his 3 hits yielded to lefties.
Right.  His game is clean and straightforward, he has a feel for it, and he can repeat it.  He's going to have a big year.

7

Saw that change in ST and was shocked.  Not in a good way.
Essentially it is thrown with the same trajectory and speed as his curve, but with half the break, and telegraphed.
You could look it up, Yogi.  Brooks.net will bear out the eyes on that characterization.  His change is essentially the worst curve ball he's ever thrown, and announced ahead of time.
He's got a decision to make about that change.
.............
I think the Rangers made the FB look less dangerous than it actually was.  Kinsler's 10-pitch leadoff walk against Felix is your cross-reference; Felix his ownself couldn't get many swing-throughs, except half-a-dozen from Beltre.
Which, again, puts Michael Pineda's performance into even sharper relief IMHO.  It ain't gonna be long until Pineda's stats begin piling up and everybody goes "oh, ok..."
............
Be interesting to see which of us has the right bead on Erikkk there CA.  You could well be right... ;- )

8
RockiesJeff's picture

Just kidding folks!!! Isn't going to happen so enjoy Pineda! First MLB pitch in Texas. What a way to get thrown into the lion's den. Pretty respectable way to start a career. I hope for many more!!!
Way to play this kid up the last few months Jeff!!
Now about some bats....

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