August 2011
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/11
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We hain't even started our POTD on the lad yet, but amigos want to skip to the bottom line. What could Jose Campos be, if everything worked out right? Is he a future number one?
Well, as you know, SSI aims to provide yer a data-rich environment. ;- ) Light first, heat later.
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=== THE LIST, Dept. ===
So we thumbed through BaseballHQ's 2011 Minors Analyst, cataloging every starting pitcher who was (1) a teenager, 18-19, and (2) graded as one of the top 75-100 pitchers in pro baseball.
Hopefully you guys will follow on and track what these guys did in 2011. G-Moneyball of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/11
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=== Jose Campos, Saber Corner ===
The 18-year-old Campos right now has -- embellishing just a tad -- 10.0 strikeouts, 1.0 walks, and 0.0 homers in the low-A Northwest League.
Considering the strength of opposition, what sense do you make of that?
An accomplished pitcher, a 23-year-old, will sometimes run crazy numbers in a league that low. Royce Ring would fan 82 men and walk 11 in that league. Matthew Bischoff, age 24, is running a 23:3 CTL this year.
The item out of alignment here? Is for an 18-year-old flamethrower to be running K/BB's as though he were Roy Halladay. That... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/11
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Q. Does Campos have the stuff to be a Cy candidate?
A. He does, yes.
But bear in mind that Cliff Lee's and Jered Weaver's routes to the Cy involve precision first and power second. Jose Campos, Michael Pineda, and Jamie Moyer have toolboxes based on precision. Get that straight.
There is a #1 pitcher whose game is precision. Put Campos in that category. He's not Nolan Ryan. He's Ben Sheets. You have to understand him as such.
We'll start with G-Moneyball's extremely accurate take...
91-98. According to his pitching coach, that's his FB velocity. He's not touching 95, he's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/11
9 Comments
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Q. What is the common usage of this term?
A. Bill Bavasi - a smart guy, and a victim of circumstances here - once said "There are only 3-4 true number one starters in baseball."
There are more than that many Hall of Fame starters right now. So apparently this term has exceeded "HOF'er" in baseball veneration.
Bill meant that he wanted legendary performance from his Opening Day starter -- Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax performance. That's not what SSI means by "number one starter," though.
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Q. What would be the fair usage of the term?
A. When people say that Campos could be a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/11
23 Comments
Terry McDermott continues to clang the cowbell for Carp at 3B :- )
In the great Yonder Alonso / Joe Torre tradition! Plus, you need to make some space for the rooks in left, whichever ones don't get traded. If it's me, I'd spend some time thinking about a Wells-Ackley-Ichiro outfield with Trayvon as the fourth (switch-hitting pinch-hitter, pinch-runner). If you want to maximize Ackley's bat, CF is at least as good an option as 2B with the added thrill that we get to watch him run more often.
Smoak-Seager-Ryan-Carp infield. Use the Guti money to help pay Fielder.
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Terry's idea is less... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/11
6 Comments
Spec sez,
You're forgetting one [in your rookie rundown] ... Tom Wilhelmsen, take two
7 G, 12.1 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 14 K
2.92 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 0.0 HR/9, 2.92 BB/9, 10.22 K/9
He didn't make the highlights, so I don't know what he looked like, but Gameday sez:
97, 95, 81, 97 (1 out)
96, 79, 96, 81 (2 outs)
97, 80, 96, 81, 98, 97, 97 (3 outs)
Ruffin and Lueke have been 93-95 while Wilhelmsen has been 95-97.
Didn't make the highlights, eh ... Dr. D and Mrs. D had the pleasure of watching Mr. Martini live with a monitor in line of sight, and GameDay did not do him justice ...
Wilhelmsen was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/11
9 Comments
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=== CASPER WELLS ===
THE GOOD came on his three (3) Ichiro-like throws. Nailed Bourjos, or somebody, trying to stretch a double... the ball came in very low, real heavy carry to it, hit the infielder in the knee. Outta there!
Two other throws left vapor trails, including the DP at first. Steve Mann used to correlate this kind of epic arm with HR power. Wells is definitely a specimen.
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THE BAD shows up in his EYE: now 13 walks and 60 punchouts. That'll need to improve, but Casper Wells is what we wish Michael Saunders had been.
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THE UGLY was in his CF scratch the other day... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/11
5 Comments
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=== Carp Gettin' Ugly on the AL ===
In the 8th inning of a 3-3 tie with the rodent Angels, Mike Carp rolled out his Home Run Derby swing. In the video, watch Dustin Ackley. He's supposed to either (a) tag up, or (b) go halfway and hold , I think :- ) but he's in HR Derby mode, too.
For those interested in technical-type details, notice
The Daryl Strawberry-type bat waggle TOWARDS the pitcher
The malicious coil in the rear leg, with the low waist "spooning" the pitch out as in boxing
The little head drop at contact, like, UUUGGGGHHHH
The stiff front side (head "staying back" behind... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/11
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The two reasons, we should say.
(1) He's hitting in bad luck, 55%.
(2) He's swinging with less enthusiasm, leading to subtly weaker contact, 35%.
(3) Factors beyond our perception, maybe 10%.
For 2012, give Batting Champ-San a reset and a division race, and the guess is that he'll be back.
And trust us, that's not what we were expecting to find when we fed the data into the mainframe. But fortunately for the M's and their $18M, it's what facts and logic dictate.
Or not. You decide....
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=== Timeline Dept. ===
(1) For most of the year, we've all been mystified by... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/11
1 Comments
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Now, that's what I call an Ichiro swing
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It's certainly possible that Ichiro's problem is as simple as weak contact, but how often is life that simple? .... More light bulbs offered by the wonderful Fangraphs.com thread:
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C - There is a 5.33% chance that Ichiro's BABIP and stats are down, due to random chance alone. (See Epee9 on 7.29 at 8:33 pm.) Also, Ichiro's April, and his recent hot streak, show "flashes" of 2009 form.
Just in the last few days, SSI think-tankers have pointed out that Ichiro has been web-gemmed 30+ times in 2011. See for example Dr. G's post here... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/11
=== Aiki Sensei Dept. ===
Ichiro has taken pleasure in the idea that nobody can understand his swing through observation: "They might notice that the position of my knee has changed, but they would not understand why."
His book is full of remarks to this effect. They can't copy me, says he, because they'll never understand me. And you can't understand me by observing me.
Unfortunately for Batting-Champ-San, aiki dynamics are public domain ... :- )
The following four frames are side-by-sides of two homers, one from Aug. 22, 2011 and one from Sept. 12, 2009. The older, 2009, shots... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/11
10 Comments
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=== Root Causes ===
Take two copies of Timothy Gallwey and call me in the morning. Or study O Sensei's teachings, grasshopper. Or ask Vince Lombardi. All roads lead to Rome.
Lack of internal enthusiasm leads to ---> lack of external enthusiasm. Ichiro's season started off with a catastrophe in Japan and was quickly followed by a truly miserable, Deadball-era offensive performance around him.
... Samir Nasri didn't look too enthused in his final Arsenal game, either, being the only star having to play with ten reserves.
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Guess what? The drive for 200 hits has caught Ichiro's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/23/11
4 Comments
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On a 1-1 pitch, Zach McAllister threw Carp a 90 mph fastball right in on his hands, far enough in that it might have been a ball. Here's the GameDay - go to the 3rd inning to find the pitch location.
Carp pulled his hands in, turned on it and launched it 443 feet to right field. Here's the flight path.
The 3rd-longest Mariner HR this season, behind Peguero's 451-footer and this 468-footer by Wily Mo a couple days ago.
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If you missed the memo, Dept: Carp hit 50 homers in his last 176 games in AAA, which rates out to 44 homers per 155-game season.
He's now got 7... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/23/11
18 Comments
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Some things are just too weird. Like 80-mph batting practice at 7:30, for example
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Anthony Vasquez made his first, and presumably last, Mariners start on August 23rd. He threw 98 pitches and 70 changeups?! Per Brooks Baseball ... well, per the GameDay algorithm, I guess.
The algorithm is wrong: it was about 45% fastballs, 45% changeups and 10% curves ... the money shot is this chart.
What does the chart mean? That Vasquez' fastball-changeup are thrown with exactly the same movement, and that he simply takes a little off his FB and calls that a "changeup." The result... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/23/11
17 Comments
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SANDY But, I'm much higher on Trayvon becoming a 120 OPS+ guy (a couple of years down the line, perhaps).
For me, Trayvon's AB's have been a jarring case of cognitive dissonance.
COG*NI*TIVE DIS*SO*NANCE
An emotional state set up when two simultaneously held attitudes or cognitions are inconsistent or when there is a conflict between belief and overt behavior. Cognitive dissonance occurs when evidence shows that our assumptions have been wrong.
This kid was supposed to be a 200-strikeout air conditioner. Since the day he's come up, he's done nothing but wait 9,000... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/23/11
9 Comments
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Are we imagining things,
or did we really hear something go, "THWOCKKKK!" out there on the lawn ...
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Powerful statement of the case against Casper Wells, here and here. Good stuff amigos :- )
So we get some interesting pitches coming down the pipe; let's see if they stand up to scrutiny, like DiceK's gyroball being tested by Ichiro ...
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I agree a bit with Casper [as to this being nothing more than a little hot streak, with a huge crash to follow - Dr D].
Casper is more likely to tail off in power a bit and his true-talent BABIP is probably under .300 making him more of a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/11
5 Comments
The M's call up Vasquez and give him a spot start, presumably as a thank-you and message to the Rainiers who have been good actors all year.
We couch potatoes don't worry much about players as people, but Jack Zduriencik does. I approve of this.
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Sabermetrically, this pitcher don' cut it. At least in SSI's funhouse-mirror interpretation of sabermetrics.
His weapons template is that of Jamie Moyer or Jimmy Key or John Halama or somebody like that, but his minor league results are not what such a pitcher would need to possess in order to hope to pitch well in the American League.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/11
"On the Chessboard lies and hypocrisy do not survive long. The creative combination lays bare the presumption of a lie; the merciless fact, culminating in a checkmate, contradicts the hypocrite.
And many a man, struck by injustice as, say, Socrates and Shakespeare were struck, has found justice realized on the Chessboard and has thereby recovered his courage and his vitality to continue to play the game of Life. - Lasker's Manual of Chess
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=== Windup and Delivery ===
On Monday vs the Indians, Chance's pitching motion was full of lies and hypocrisy, though he did survive twelve pitches,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/11
2 Comments
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(Usually Ruffin throws a tight-spin, 82 mph slider that breaks considerably harder than other ML sliders. Oddly, on Monday, Ruffin busted out a 77 mph curve ball that broke like Tom Gordon's.
No wonder they talked about this guy as a starting pitcher. That's three KO weapons.
I wonder if he deliberately throws EITHER all sliders OR all curve balls off his fastball in any given outing. If so, it would impress the stuffing out of me. A pitcher's feel for two pitches is much easier to maintain, especially in a 15-pitch burst out of the bullpen.)
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=== The Ugly ===
1. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/11
92 mph on the black. (Note catcher's mitt.) In the next shot, Shields receives positive feedback and displays his pleasure in having executed a perfect pitch
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Wells' SLG sits at .527 ... and granted, his life has only spanned about 300 plate appearances, but still. Any other ML-ready bats you want to give me, who will slug .525 in the AL, their first half-seasons?
It's one thing to be on a hot streak, sure. Dr. D likes hot streaks. Dr. D would have given his cyber-kingdom, or at least his taco stand, for a hot streak in June.
But when you start talking about a rookie who... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/11
2 Comments
=== Casper Wells and Richie Sexson ===
A week or two ago, somebody -- please chime in and take credit -- proposed Richie Sexson as the best comp for Casper Wells.
I sort of chuckled and patronized the amigo, "Not bad, yeah." But since then, every time I've watched Wells swing the bat on TV, that Sexson comp has chewed my shoulder and neck like an attacking, invisible Dungeons and Dragons imp.
True, Richie Sexson was probably more gifted, and got the big leagues a bit quicker. But Wells and Sexson have, so far, the following things in common:
.260/.320/.500 type skill sets (check Sexson'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/11
6 Comments
=== Ribbie Men ===
Other comps for Wells, if he were to jell as a .260, 30-homer type: the 1980's Jays' star Jesse Barfield, the 1990's Rangers third baseman Dean Palmer and, at the extreme, check out Jim Rice's EYE in his first two years.
BB's increase as respect increases. Wells' BB will increase as the HR's pile up.
There is a very great difference between a sabermetric rule of thumb and an inviolable law of physics. "Most .300 hitters have EYE's above 0.70" simply does not carry the same authority as "Matter and energy can be neither created nor destroyed."
If you find yourself... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/17/11
9 Comments
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Remember, John Benson's big Roto light bulb was ... if you want breakout players on your fantasy roster, git you the players (1) aged 26 who have (2) seen lots of MLB playing time but (3) haven't had the splash 30 HR, 100 RBI season just yet.
In other words, prior to age 27, the improvement curve is sharply UP. Better numbers are ahead of the player.
If you've got a player aged 26, who has seen plenty of ML time already, you've also got legit talent. It's no small accomplishment, as Mike Carp could tell you, to be playing in the American League at age 23, 24.
To the Empire's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/11
21 Comments
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Youk 133, Carp 132 ... as far as career wRC+ (very similar to OPS+), that is. Youk's wRC+ standing at 133, Carp's at 132. I give Youkilis about three more games to lead in this little race.
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Forget about "hot streaks." We're talking about aggregate production now. Carp has ~250 career PA's in the big leagues, and coming up on 80 games ... Carp is at right about the half season mile marker as a big leaguer.
Carp is .300/.372/.471 lifetime, playing in a pitcher's park; Youkilis is .291/.392/.496 lifetime, playing in a hitter's park.
Of course, we're not issuing money-back... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/11
Here's how you finish a baseball pitch, Blake, Daniel
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I/O: Zduriencik asked, hey, what's so good about Hultzen. Sleep-deprived free association was? .... "96 mph."
CRUNCH: This is not at all my first impression of what Hultzen's pitcher template is; it's Taro's. Huh.
Z said, more specifically, they gave Hultzen so much money because "He's 96 miles an hour lefty, he's real short to the big leagues and he's got TWO good offspeed pitches."
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Hey. You start talking about $10M* to Danny Hultzen for six club-controls years ... vs whatever free agent money gets you ... well, an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/11
6 Comments
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On the Mariners' postgame show, 710-AM scored an interview with a punch-drunk but surprisingly articulate Jack Zduriencik. Who had probably slept relatively recently - we're guessing, August 13th or so.
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I/O: Capt Jack says "there were some interesting moments" with Hultzen, who signed "right at" the top of the hour.
CRUNCH: In other words, Hultzen's camp walked away from the deal -- and meant it -- several times. Including probably with ten minutes left.
The M's gave Hultzen, what, the #5 bonus ever, and Hultzen wasn't a #1 pick. Nor was he the #2 pick in a Strasburg draft.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/11
18 Comments
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I/O: If Hultzen is going to compete in 2012, what does that make James Paxton?
CRUNCH: After discussing the above on Hultzen, the radio crew asked this about Paxton.
Short pause. ... Radio crew busts out laughing over Zduriencik's spontaneous, broad smile at the very name of James Paxton.
No, I'm serious. The interchange was visible over the radio. They bring up Paxton and the weary GM responds like he just saw his shortstop reach first, then simply take off and sprint to second and third in a little league game. Delighted laughs all around.
Zduriencik composes himself and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/11
16 Comments
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Q. How good was Furbush against the Red Sox on August 14th?
A. He was a number 2-3 starter in that particular game ... a second-day-of-season starter on the Royals, a third-day starter on the Tigers or Indians.
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Q. He had some hard-hit balls, right?
A. During the game, I thought, wow, two balls to the warning track, a couple more line drives snared... he wasn't far away from giving up five runs, right?
But it was a normal, BABIP-style "far away from five runs." His BIP profile was:
6k
2bb
0hr
5 line drives (on 19 balls in play; that's within typical range)
7 fly balls, 6... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/13/11
3 Comments
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=== Day Late and a Dollar Short Dept. ===
On July 1, the Mariners beat Toronto 6-0 behind Jason Vargas. They were 3.5 games out.
They would go the next 13 consecutive games without scoring +5 runs in any game ... in any nine innings, that is. Tonight, they detonated Josh Beckett (!) for five runs before he got the second out.
On July 1, the Mariners scored 5+ runs and were -3.5 in the standings; the next time their offense scored 5 or more runs, they would be -12.5 and the entire baseball town would be a "floater" in the Puget Sound.
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Several of the hits were rockets: ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/13/11
7 Comments
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Casper Wells showed the good, the bad, and the ugly in his first AB: his wave and miss swing-through must have missed by three balls' widths.
But on a low-away fastball, Wells showed that gorgeous rock-steady head, busted out a can, and used the pecs and arms to simply muscle a ball hard and far, over the Safeco fence. Wells has Jay Buhner-type physical power.
The song remains the same: if his EYE stays over 0.30, Wells looks like a Buhner Lite. It may not.
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You might complain that Beckett's fastball got a fair part of the plate. I might complain, in reply, that the June... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/11
19 Comments
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Around August 2, we got a traffic spike, an extra 2,000 hits a day or so. Turns out that on Geoff Baker Live!, the Times' reporter mentioned SSI offhandedly. Our admins were curious as to why we had a bunch of traffic coming off a Google search for Seattle Sports Insider :- ) (If you're curious, it's about about the 14:00 mark of the third embedded video on this page.)
Slap me silly. We knew the man had listeners, but a 10-second mention en passant, and we get 2,000 a day?! If I'd have known that he holds the keys to the gates of life and death, I'd have been sending chocolates... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/08/11
4 Comments
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We are firing rookies at the league like --- > Mariners of the Caribbean firing sackfuls of forks, spoons and knives out of the starboard cannons.
Bound to catch somebody in the eye with a fork sometime. Big fun!
Like we sez, if this wuz a ballclub fulla Jose Vidros and Miguel Batistas, you'd hear nothing but doom, despair, and agony on me. It ain't. It's a ballclub full of exciting, dynamic talent and it's on its way up. Don't forget to enjoy.
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=== Casper Wells ===
Avast, ye lubber. Walked the plank on Monday, falling into shark-infested waters for an 0-for-3... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/08/11
3 Comments
=== Charlie Furbish ===
Just received his assessment from the Texas Rangers: if you plan to ask for SP dollars, you'll need a little bullpen refurbishing.
Hey, it worked for C.J. Wilson, didn't it? C.J. spent five years getting his mechanics together and ... lo and behold, he's a staff ace now.
Original SSI glance was that Furb'sh has some decently electric stuff from that LH angle, but --- > the mechanics and the command are (in view of the "decently" part) going to get him a bad case of gopheritis.
Not ready for prime time there, playa. Dr. D is thinking the C.J. route.
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===... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/06/11
9 Comments
Sez G-Money,
Right on cue, he takes that long (35-inch) lever, is short to the ball with it and drives it to oppo CF over the fence. Long HR for a 5'10 CF (playing left tonight). Dodgers fans must gnash their teeth with every swing.
And nice of the Mariners to call him up in LA where his home town people can come to the games. Well done, kid. Good coupla games so far I gotta say, showcasing what he can do.
Have heard the debate over bat weight, but this is a new one on me, the length issue in isolation vs. weight...
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=== Three Swings: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly ===
Trayvon's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/06/11
8 Comments
G-Money notes the Angels' announcers' confusion on Ackley :- )
Announcer 1: I don't understand why he doesn't get more changeups and curves thrown at him. the way he's always early on his front-side...he can keep his hands back long enough to hit fastballs but offspeed stuff should be really hard for him.
Announcer 2: Well we did see him hit some stuff hard into LF by keeping his hands back long enough...
Announcer 1: Sure, maybe on fastballs, but it takes a really special hitter to be that far into your swing before the ball reaches the plate and hit off-speed stuff....
Reminds me of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/05/11
2 Comments
In Vargas' first few pitches tonight, Dave Sims caught something. Vargas' step to home plate was short. By a lot.
Obviously they've been working on something, right, Dave told Mike Blowers. Yeah, so let's see if he can be consistent with it during the game, shot back Blowers.
From an aiki standpoint, there are two basic bad things about Vargas' higher CG and one good one:
BAD - Weight does not accelerate well toward the plate
BAD - Finish will tend to be weak, leaving pitch up in the zone
GOOD - Higher stance indicates more relaxation and focus
It looked to me like Vargas was throwing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/05/11
12 Comments
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=== Ackley Syndrome ===
As Jeff Sullivan politely reminded, when Dustin Ackley was in the minors .... it was all the rage to point out that his "pattern" was to fail when he first saw a new level.
When Ackley arrived in the majors with a fully-developed George Brett offensive game, did we go back and check the light bulbs? Did we ask, "what did we misunderstand, exactly, that will help us to predict the next player better?"
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Some also used to discuss the fact that Ackley hit a lot of ground balls in the minors, which would zap any power the little guy had.
... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/05/11
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OK, here's a hypo-hypothetical for you. Had I been watching Travyon Robinson make his ML debut for a team I don't care about -- say, the Kansas City Royals -- and getting paid $200 for a one-game, trial-basis crosscheck?
Here's what I'd a seen in that one game, and filed, if I'd a had no preconceptions going in.
Well, maybe I'd of left the part about the fan-thread out of it. The stuff after the anti-censorship /vent, we mean.
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=== The Catch ===
Dave Sims mentioned, during the broadcast, that Trayvon Robinson had been a huge baseball fan since the age of three. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/05/11
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=== Basestealing ===
Robinson singled, reached first base, and started studying Jered Weaver (!) as though he planned to steal. (This is the Jered Weaver who picked off the 37-year-old "clinic master" Ichiro earlier in the game.)
Cindy said, "He's going."
I laughed. "Um, no. He doesn't want to erase the base hit. Back in the dugout, a caught stealing would cancel his first-game catch and hit."
Robinson, next pitch, got a Rickey-style jump, took off for second, and had it stolen. Ichiro swung at an offspeed pitch (!) and fouled it back, exactly as Ichiro used... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/04/11
14 Comments
So tweeteth the town oracle. Greg Halman down, but not out, Wily Mo Pena out but not down.
Intriguing question: the playing time from here out. I suppose the M's could bring Trayvon up and break his rhythm by playing him once in four days ... :- / ... if so, the benefit would be to get him that "acclimation" cup of coffee, like Peguero got early this year, like Mike Carp has had done to him three times.
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For those who doubted Tray-vonn's power, G-Money linked us to a video that lays all such doubts waste. A picture's worth a thousand words, babe.
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Mike Carp is hitting .357/.390... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/03/11
3 Comments
Dude. You're harshing my mellow.
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=== PREREQs 101, 102 ===
You'd be better off to read first this article on his mechanics, then this article on his pitch arsenal, then return to read this one. But you're a closet rebel, so indulge yourself and skip the prereq's. Who's to know? Pistons poppin', ain' no stoppin' ... nowwwww Paaaa-nuh-maaaaaaa.... Pan! a! Ma! Hah!
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=== Defining Attributes ===
We haven't gotten to use the phrase "mutually exclusive and mutually exhaustive" all year. One of my all-time fave concepts in life. It describes the two people in the last marriage I went to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/03/11
1 Comments
Furbush finishes off his 3rd strikeout
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=== INPUT ===
FASTBALL. ... runs a solid 90-93 mph, averaging 91.3 per F/X.
Furbush, without any question, has very good deception, a rather sidearm delivery, and his breaking stuff comes out of his hand obviously hard to separate from his heater.
This means that his fastball "plays up," a la that of a George Sherrill or Erik Bedard, and he gets plenty of swing-throughs on straight fastballs.
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Furbush's sidearm fastball has unusual drop to it, which is why he gets a better-than-average number of groundballs -- despite pitching up in the zone a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/03/11
Soon to be a bronze statue outside the park
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=== INPUT ===
Physique: Furbush has a classic country-beanpole pitcher's body, long limbs, excellent strength to weight ratio, effortless movements in quasi-Lincecum style. However, he lacks grace, with a typical tall lefthander's ungainliness.
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Backstroke: He has slow, smooth tempo and good balance as he rocks back. His head stays neatly over his plant foot, he is light on his feet, and there are no complaints about his setup.
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To accelerate the ball: He dips the plant knee as though he is going to drop-and-drive, and he certainly has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/02/11
21 Comments
=== See Ya, Wouldn't Wanna Be Ya ===
In Jack's sound bytes, he's referred to Chiang as "the Eastern League MVP" or some such...
Pro talent evaluators have a rather better feel for what "best player in the Eastern League" actually means. It tends to mean "future MLB MOTO hitter." In AAA you've got a lot of ex-major league fringe players, but in AA you're generally talking about dynamic young prospects.
I think Taro already pointed out this listing of historical players who went as EL-bananas as Chiang has. Like 50% of them are impact ML players.
Check out the list. The top 25, on which... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/02/11
8 Comments
The Dalai Lama advises forgetting about your problems by --- > focusing on other people's problems, and helping with them. :- )
Beginners ask, "Why is that any less painful?"
He replies, laughingly, "The voluntary aspect to taking on others' suffering makes all the difference. With your own problems there can be a feeling of helplessness."
Sandy ingeniously captured an abstract thought that I hadn't articulated:
The reason *I* would be intrigued by Trayvon way ahead of Saunders is because you have three different APPROACHES to hitting indicated over a 3 year period.
That tells me he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/11
1 Comments
Getting Chiang as well in the trade is a steal, IMO. It would be like somebody trading Choo along with As-Cab, and nobody would do... that...
Doc was talking about topspin hitters, and how Trayvon isn't one. Well, Chiang is. Look at his GB% (always around 50%) and his LD % (20, 16, 20 the last 3 years).
Once the Sox got him some dietary help he just exploded onto the scene.
“Call him Video Game Chiang,” Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks said of Portland teammate Chih-Hsieh Chiang at the All-Star Futures Game, where both players represented the Sox. “He hits the ball with video... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/11
... and one more like that, I'm going to give up on him completely.
Just kidding. Sort of.
.
=== Arsenal ===
So far this season, Blake Beavan has thrown these pitches:
77% - 91 mph fastball
8% - Slider/cutter that may actually be a fastball, though misjudged by F/X
11% - Changeup with one of the worst run values in the history of pitching
4% - Curve ball with an even worse run value than his change
All the movements have truly mediocre angle and movement, thusly:
.............
Not only are the "runs" on the pitches unimpressive, but also it looks to me (on TV) like the "breaks" are squishy... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/11
6 Comments
=== Plus, not Plus-Plus, Command ===
Here is one of Beavan's better AB's from Monday night, a first-inning strikeout of Josh Willingham:
True, he does manage to get through 7 pitches without giving Willingham much to hit, except the one centered FB that Willingham fouled back. And, granted, there are three pretty nice jam pitches there, although Beavan is wide open to simply "Ball Two" on any of them.
But this is nibbling, as opposed to painting.
Go through a Doogie AB like this and you'll find strikes on the hands, strikes on the black, strikes at the letters, all done at will ... and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/11
40 Comments
Champ sez,
Curtis Granderson had a 18.8% minor league K-rate. Travyon is at 25%. Guys who show "old-player skills" in the minors usually fall flat at MLB.
Travyon and even Wells are the type of prospects I try to trade in packages to other teams. Travyon is someone I wouldn't want to invest PAs in. You waste the audition time and hurt his stock as a prospect along the way. You have to make that call early on the guys you believe in.
Maybe we can do a quantity for quality deal this offseason once we figure out who sticks.
Question fer yer, my man. Have you ever seen anybody else... Read More