... and one more like that, I'm going to give up on him completely.

Just kidding.  Sort of.

.

=== Arsenal ===

So far this season, Blake Beavan has thrown these pitches:

• 77% - 91 mph fastball
• 8% - Slider/cutter that may actually be a fastball, though misjudged by F/X
• 11% - Changeup with one of the worst run values in the history of pitching
• 4% - Curve ball with an even worse run value than his change

All the movements have truly mediocre angle and movement, thusly:

.............

Not only are the "runs" on the pitches unimpressive, but also it looks to me (on TV) like the "breaks" are squishy.

When you throw a blizzard of precision, 90 mph "PITCH TO CONTACT" fastballs, you strike out nobody and walk a negative number.  Sure enough, Beavan sits at 4.0 K and 1.3 BB.  

.

=== Dr's Prognosis, 90 MPH "Pitch To Contact" template ===

Can a starting pitcher throw a 90 fastball precisely enough to survive?   As a general rule of thumb, it is very hard to make this kind of pitching work.

Major league hitters don't swing and miss at 90 fastballs they know are coming.  They swing and miss in front of, or behind, pitches in the Z axis.  They're too good to miss on the X and Y axis.

At 77% fastballs, Beavan is easily in the top 5 of the major leagues for FB%, and most of the other guys have great reasons for throwing theirs -- for example, Justin Masterson throws 96 mph with tremendous sink and a 55% grounder rate.

This blizzard of mediocre fastballs makes him Doug Fister 2010, except Doogie had three critical advantages that made it work, white-knuckle:

• An unusual angle and movement
• A very effective changeup
• Truly supreme command of the heater

Beavan doesn't have the things that Doogie had.

Earlier, we were impressed by Beavan's consistent, repeatable game.  However, as Beavan's game sits out under the hot sun of AL exposure, it becomes apparent that his secondary stuff is too weak to support his squishy fastball.

Monday, for example, Beavan tried to throw some curveballs, 29 of them, but they got crunched.

.

=== Deltas ===

After one game, we wrote up this 3-part series.  Five games in, we gotta admit, we're awfully happy with the way it holds up.

The exec sum:

• There are 20,000 pitchers trying to use command only
• The ones in the majors are the ones with amazing, extra-class precision
• Beavan's future depends on that extra level of "special" precision
• He may do it, because he's got a 95 mph arm, throttled down to 90, and that's neat-O

Four games in, my basic update is --- > Beavan doesn't quite throw as many well-located pitches as I'd hoped he would.  I'm a little disappointed by the command the last four games.  (I know he'll toss and turn all night, hearing that from such an important source.)

.