Kevin Youkilis leading Mike Carp, 133-132, lifetime

..... 

Youk 133, Carp 132 ... as far as career wRC+ (very similar to OPS+), that is.  Youk's wRC+ standing at 133, Carp's at 132.  I give Youkilis about three more games to lead in this little race.

***

Forget about "hot streaks."  We're talking about aggregate production now.  Carp has ~250 career PA's in the big leagues, and coming up on 80 games ... Carp is at right about the half season mile marker as a big leaguer.

Carp is .300/.372/.471 lifetime, playing in a pitcher's park; Youkilis is .291/.392/.496 lifetime, playing in a hitter's park.

Of course, we're not issuing money-back guarantees that Mike Carp is already as good as Boston's perennial MVP candidate -- Youkilis has one of the great EYEs in baseball, and Carp's EYE is pretty much the last question remaining.  

And granted, Carp may not maintain a lifetime .368 BABIP.  But then again, you don't have to be every inch as good as Kevin Youkilis to bat cleanup.  Torii Hunter and Michael Young aren't, and they bat cleanup.  :- )

Carp doesn't figure to be quiiiite as good as him, maybe.  But it's coooooool-breeze statistic that in Carp's ML appearnaces, his production has matched Kevin Youkilis'. It could be that El Raton been sold a little short, I dunno.

***

Zduriencik also commented on Carp during his post-game interview (which see).  He sort of shook his head in admiration, "He's a guy who got sent back three, four times ... and he responded every time by saying, OK, I'm going to do what it takes to get back there.  He's earned every bit of this."

Earlier this week, Eric Wedge said that Carp would be playing the rest of the year because "I want to see if it's real."

The 2012 DH job has probably been resolved the last two or three days, even if Carp slumps.  

The question is whether Carp has suddenly jelled as one of the league's thirty best hitters or so.  Since he's been called up, he has been.  Not one of the thirty most productive hitters; one of the thirty best hitters.  

He's taking the ball to left, right, up the middle.  He's never "in between."  He's putting yellow mustard on his swings, and you can hear the SOOCCCKKKKKK! on line drive after line drive.  He's over 30% line drives for the year and if he were eligible, he'd lead the majors in LD% by a long ways.  

Monday night, he hit one home run to Safeco's death valley in LF/CF and another home run to RF off a LOOGY.

***

I think that the last Mariners with "swagger" were Jay Buhner and Randy Johnson.  No, we take that back -- Bret Boone.  Forgot.

Carp put his swagger on about a week ago.  Listen to El Raton talk about the show that the M's are going to put on the rest of the year.  Dr. D can't get enough of swagger.  Felix and Pineda are gonna be down with that, if the M's get rolling in 2012.  Brandon League.  You could see Casper Wells going there.

Carp swings like this, the 2012 Mariners have their cleanup hitter.  If I didn't know better, I'd say he was gonna.  

Be afraid,

Dr D

Comments

2

It could be just a hot streak, but the M's have been playing some good teams and still putting up what looks like at least a league average offense, something that for THEM is a huge accomplishment. Not only that, but the production is being driven by the young players more so than the established vets.
I disagree with Sandy on the approach for the next year or so, but that doesn't mean he isn't right in this case. None of us knows for sure. God and hindsight are the only ones that do.
As terrible as this offense has been, even though it's unlikely we already have a league average offense for 2012, it IS possible.

3

We're heading for a camping trip for the next few days.  Our favorite family thing!  Biggest downside? Missing a few games of these new look M's.
I hate that.
Go team.  I'll be back.
moe
 

4

One of the times I got excited about Carp I asked if maybe he could make up for some of the disappointment about not getting Rendon.  Then he went out and did another MLB face-plant.  Buuuuuuut . . .
Boy does he look legit now.  And a LH hitter who can use the whole field.
Get Smoak healthy and confident annnnnnnd . . .
3. Ackley LH 23
4. Carp LH 25
5. Smoak SH 24
6. Wells RH 26
Suddenly we have a middle of the order.
No more Olivo-or-Pegeuro roulette-wheel offense.  No more squeezing the last juice out of Adam Kennedy.
The biggest concern about that group (besides getting Smoak healthy and back in the groove) is Wells' eye and K%, but he's still a huge upgrade over the guys we were running out there.

5

Earlier this year there were reports of Carp's disgruntled nature when he got sent back down and that he was rubbing guys - and coaches - the wrong way.
Mike seems to have felt since Spring Training that he deserved to be on the 25-man and was angry at the Mariners for not seeing it even back in March.  He got thrown out of a game, nearly suspended, and benched for a week-ish upon his last return to Tacoma for screaming at an ump in his first AB back, just utterly frustrated that the Ms were not buying in on him.
That was my take, anyway.
Carp DOES have swagger.  He DOES feel like he belongs. Back before he did belong, that was an issue.  Vets tend to bag on rookies who come up feeling "entitled" or are giving them the "don't sweat it, old guy, I got this" approach.  I don't think Wedge would be any less 1000-degree heat about that on his first brush with it.
Swagger is great as long as everyone else buys in too...otherwise you get Colby Rasmus / Logan Morrison issues.  Carp's had his bumps with his attitude, but luckily for us his work on his game never suffered.  The Ms sent im back down with Wilson, IMO, because they were looking for pliable minor leaguers at the time, not headstrong, difficult ones.
Mike is a hard-working, talented guy, though, and it's showing.  He forced his way back up for another look and is taking absolute advantage of it.  He might not be the humblest water-boy to ever be seen and not heard, but right now he's backing it up, and as long as he DOES that they can live with a little abrasiveness now and then.
I remember Bobby Madritsch cussing out everyone he could find when he didn't make the 25 man out of Spring Training and promising he would be back.  And he was.  And he was as great as he thought he was.  If he could have been healthy, he would have been great.
I believe Carp is in that personality mold.  I hope he's got greatness in him too.  Everything he's done at the plate says that, "don't sweat it, old guy, I got this" statement in a way that can't be denied.  Keep it up, kid.  We could definitely use more swagger and the ability to put a hurt on a pitcher.
~G 

6

Carp's BABIP this year is .411!!!  And it's .429 in the last 28 days (23 games). 
Some use BABIP as a "luck" proxy.  Let me clearly state.  Carp is not running a 'lucky' .429 BABIP.  He's running hot at the moment because he's seeing the ball fantastically, and he's crushing just about everything.  STREAKING players run BABIPs over .400 routinely.  Carp's current line is "unsustainable", but that does not mean "lucky".
There's no question that Carp has taken his game to a new level this year.  And that makes projecting him particularly problematic.  His career minors slashline is: .277/.369/.470 (.839).  But, his 2011 line at Tacoma was .343/.411/.649 (1060)!!
So, is it complete guesswork as to where he'll land?  No, not completely.  The thing that I know is that walk rate is one of the first, most solid stats for players.  On a select few, it will rise (when they change their approach).  But, it will drop for almost nobody.  If you show 80 points of patience in A ball, then you will typically show 80 patience in the majors.  The K-rate may swing wildly, but the walk rates tend to be a lot more stable.
And that is why Carp, IMO, is more or less immune from a Saunders like implosion.  His OBP was 90 to 100 above his average from age 18 (2004) through age 23 (2009).  His morph into power hitter saw that drop to 70 in 2010 and 2011 in the minors, and is only 56 in the majors this season.  He's not walking as much BY CHOICE.  He was coached up into becoming the power hitter that he flashed briefly at age 19 in Hagerstown.
Carp is hard to project because he's STILL putting together his various skill sets.  And he's already shown an ability to adapt and learn and grow.  His current .920 OPS is because he's a good player on a roll.  But, it skews his slash line.
So, what does the future hold?  First, the bad news.  Carp is NOT a .300 hitter.  Ackley is a .300 hitter.  Ackley will not whiff 120 times a year.  Carp has a .277 minors BA, and will fan 120 times a year.  Carp is a .280-.290 hitter at best, (and more likely to slip toward .270).  But, Carp has not recovered his walk rate (yet).  I think he will, (maybe not in 2012, but he will).  I think long term:  .280/.370/.490 is about right.  (But he may have to go through .270/.330/.450 in 2012 to get there).  The number I'm least confident in is the ISO.  He's a legit 200 ISO.  Whether he's a legit 250, it will take a while to see what happens when he's slumping to determine.  The final reality is this -- it will depend on how he hits when slumping, and how long slumps last that will determine his final line.  We've SEEN his "on fire" line.  Have patience when the "ice cold" period arrives.

7

Is quickly becoming wonderful to see.  I don't fully buy in, I guess, but I am glad there's a glimmer there.
Ackley and Smoak I buy in on.  Carp has me at about 80% - I want to see him struggle and how he deals, whether he busts his teeth off grinding them to nothing and digging himself deeper, or if he knows how to use a shovel to dig himself out.  I'd give him a good long time to find out, though.
Wells I'm like 65% on in LF, but it'd be 85% in CF.  Trayvon and his 60% in CF is already there trying to work out his game (please remember what it's like to take four balls and walk to first, Tray) but I'm okay with there being crossover.
If we had Rendon ready to challenge in Spring Training for the 3B job and a catcher worth paying attention to we could have a really full lineup.
Here's hoping Martinez can step up, Seager can stop trying to do too much, and we can get some sort of patch on the hot corner nightmare.
The next 6 weeks of watching the 2012 Mariners get their feet under em in 2011 should be fun.  Hopefully Smoak can survive the year without a Final Destination-style ending - he needs to go have whatever voodoo curse is on him removed ASAP.
But the roster definitely has upside.  I don't like our chances of hitting on all those bets we're running right now, but some of em are gonna pan out from the looks of things.
We need that sort of luck, now.   It's about time the odds started turning around.
~G

8
ghost's picture

...based on how far the ball has gone when he's connected and based on the increasing topspin in his game (which plays well at Safeco). BUT...even if he's only a .200 ISO hitter...that would still put him in the same class as Raul Ibanez...and I'll take that.

9
RockiesJeff's picture

Good points DaddyO. I can agree but believe that he did demonstrate a true capacity to belong by his ability to overcome a crazy two months. He got the call up and it was well deserved for impressive AAA numbers. Then in Seattle he had inconsistent hitting to match his playing time. Back in Tacoma he didn't pout but started hitting again. Now this time around, he has not stopped. Many of the games against some very good teams and with positionitis being moved to and fro. Granted, none of that means much for next year but what a great surprise for everyone to not see Carp be cast back (sorry) but gain some confidence at the right level. Much better than trading Pineda and several youngsters in spring training for a potential bat!
 

11

It's funny ... no fax here, just opinion ... it seems to me like Carp is getting some topspin up the middle and to RF, though not to LF.  
Now that I think about it, I s'pose the same would be true of Ibanez and Kennedy... bat not having begun to rotate sharply when further back in the strike zone...
Carp had hit so many line drives the other way that I hadn't caught his topspin, if that's what's going on.  Going to watch for it on the next super slo-mo'ed pull hit.

12
ghost's picture

I'm not Jeff...but the Mariners have run into more than their fair share of players who we got to DH who literally could not focus as well DHing as they could playing the field.
Carp gives us something we have not had since 2003...a real DH

13
ghost's picture

Hit Tracker says it was a 24.7 degree vertical angle off the bat...so a low line drive (average is in the mid 30s, Brayan has hit some in his day that were over 50...LOL) and was hit at 103 mph. Not to shabby.

14

By "Jeff" we mean "all y'all, especially Jeff" :- )
Ya, could be wrong, but my assumption is that the DEFAULT for any MLB player is to drop off if he's put at DH.  If he can prove otherwise, fine.
Carp was thrown into DH and his line drives seemed to gain acceleration.  :- )
***
Bet you that in ST, this "gut feeling" factor would be huge, even if Carp hadn't locked up a job.  "Well, we know Carp is comfortable at DH" sounds like a one-liner, but it's the kind of one-liner that decides a job.
 

15

Those numbers are RIGHT where I'm at bro'.
 

Ackley and Smoak I buy in on.  Carp has me at about 80% - I want to see him struggle and how he deals, whether he busts his teeth off grinding them to nothing and digging himself deeper, or if he knows how to use a shovel to dig himself out.  I'd give him a good long time to find out, though.
Wells I'm like 65% on in LF, but it'd be 85% in CF.  Trayvon and his 60% in CF is already there trying to work out his game

Every word. 
Carp isn't a certified 90+ RBI man until he goes through that and comes out the other side.  'course you could say the M's have put him through that about four times already :- )
Smoak is in the same position, technically, but his talent is *so* overwhelming that it gives him a pass...

16

Who seem to have IMPROVED as hitters in 2011 ... see this article and this one ... Prince Fielder has apparently hit Miguel Cabrera type heights now.
***
1.  Casper in CF, Carp in LF, with Smoak and Fielder/Ortiz
2.  Deal Smoak for a superstar C/3B minor leaguer (or Justin Upton; somebody call the accountants about Ichiro)
***
And do what with Guti?  4th OF Paul Blair type at $5-7M?
 

17

Vets tend to bag on rookies who come up feeling "entitled" or are giving them the "don't sweat it, old guy, I got this" approach.  I don't think Wedge would be any less 1000-degree heat about that on his first brush with it.

Just so!
The light bulb, from Carp and Madritsch, SHOULD be:  when a kid comes to camp like that, maybe he knows something about himself that we don't.
But Wedge just did not buy in on Carp's ability.  Still can't seem to believe his eyes.  :- )
His Peguero/Carp decision was his only major bad call in 2011, as far as I could see.  But that one might have cost him the summer.

18

He's not walking as much BY CHOICE.  He was coached up into becoming the power hitter that he flashed briefly at age 19 in Hagerstown.

Yet another idea that I think is as sound as a dollar.  Oh, wait...
It's one thing to have an 0.33 EYE.  It's another thing if your EYE used to be 0.7 and now you're swinging harder.  Mike Carp is hardly Trayvon Robinson.
Shandler talks about this syndrome -- EYE up, then down with huge PX gain -- but I've never seen a HBT type article on it...

19

Next time somebody sees Carp on a slo-mo, check the label on the bat... if it rotates close to 180 degrees from the back of the strike zone, to the point where it's parallel to the 1B line, then ...
***
Well, hang on.  :sigh: Lemme check the height of his bat on the followthru on the HR.
Huh.  You know what, not really.
He is just squaring the ball up like he was Barry Bonds or something.  It's unbelievable.  He's getting the sweet spot of the wood, time after time after time.  CRAZY!
He looks like Phil Mickelson driving the ball off of an extra-long tee.  He swings and the ball just quiverrrrrrs up in the air from torment.
***
SSI opinion:  Carp is squaring the ball so perfectly that it carries as though it had topspin.  Thass m' opinion, ah could be wrong.

20

On Carp's first call-up he was walking more, but also striking out A LOT (34% of plate appearances).  This also happened to be the time frame where Wedge was complaining about hitting being too passive.  Carp gets sent down and stews... but still hammers the ball.
Next call up he's seeing a half pitch less per at bat, not walking, but hammering the ball in MLB. Carp is attaching the first pitch he thinks he can handle to great effect.  So is Wedge wrong, or did he diagnose the problem correctly, send Carp back to Tacoma to fume for a few weeks, and then unleash him for a second time on the bigs?
In my mind, a rookie needs to come up to the bigs ready to swing the bat at his pitch.  Ackley was much more aggressive in his first month plus in the bigs than expected to great effect.  It is only now that he has given pitchers an appropriate fear of god that he can be imeffectively implement a picky approach at the plate (off topic, but I wonder if one of the reasons he has done so well is that he had family telling him in detail how rookies are received in the bigs).  If you let big league pitchers sample the middle of the plate on 0-0 fastballs you are going to live behind in the count.
As correllary information Carp's strike outs are down from 34% fo plate appearances to 21% and he's been hitting line drives on 33% of balls in play (plus home runs on 8% of balls hit in fair territory) since the second call-up. By standard DIPS theory, he should have a 0.385 BABIP since the second call-up -- so he's been lucky I suppose, but still 'earned' a ~0.900 OPS.

21
RockiesJeff's picture

Jeff, like you and others rightly said, DH is a position and it needs more than a has been slugger hitting .225 with a ton of strikeouts. So Carp feeling "comfortable" would be huge, especially in the reality that his strength is holding a bat rather than a glove. The M's have tinkered with too many retreads there. Fill that hole for years to come? I think that is huge.
I agree with you about dropping off at DH. Edgar was mentally strong enough to excel at everything he did. He was the Ben Hogan with a different cap. I think the default is to lose the edge between the ears with "just" being a DH. The M's have needed bats. Carp has carried a big one all of a sudden this year. You have to love that about baseball when it finally clicks.

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