Awesome stuff, Doc. Can't begin to do your kind of analysis, but here's some additional data.
Ichrio at DH:
2001-2010: 26 of 1588 games or 1.6%
April-July 2011: 4 of 106 games or 3.7%
Aug. 1-29, 2011: 5 of 26 games or 19.2%
For the 9 days from Aug. 3 to Aug. 11 he played only 4 games in the field. 2 off days, 3 DH days.
Prior to Aug. 11: .692 OPS, .292 BABIP
After Aug. 11: .782 OPS, .328 BABIP
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Lofton never played more than 140 G/yr after age 31.
Rickey did have 148 non-DH games at 37 and 151 at 39, but those were actually more than he averaged during most of his 30s.
Biggio played 150 games in the field at 37, then 149, 141, 129, 114 for 38-41.
So the high-energy guys can produce at that age, but not 160 G/yr in the field like Ichiro was doing until this year.
Maybe it took a "forced vacation" to recharge his batteries.
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=== Root Causes ===
Take two copies of Timothy Gallwey and call me in the morning. Or study O Sensei's teachings, grasshopper. Or ask Vince Lombardi. All roads lead to Rome.
Lack of internal enthusiasm leads to ---> lack of external enthusiasm. Ichiro's season started off with a catastrophe in Japan and was quickly followed by a truly miserable, Deadball-era offensive performance around him.
... Samir Nasri didn't look too enthused in his final Arsenal game, either, being the only star having to play with ten reserves.
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Guess what? The drive for 200 hits has caught Ichiro's interest, and whattaya know, he's 19-for-50 (.380) the last two weeks and is driving the ball hard into the gaps again.
SSI confidently expects Ichiro to rip away at a .350+ pace the rest of the month.
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Most observers have taken the cynical view: Ichiro is swinging softly "because he knows he can't get around on a fastball any more."
aaaaaarrrrghhhh. It says here that when Ichiro really can't hit any more -- when Ichiro's opinion is that the fastballs are too quick for him -- he will return to his 2001 defensive mode: slapping the ball through the left side.
This has been Ichiro's life-long response to any "overmatch" situation: wait on the ball and whack it hard to LF. In 1999-2002, Ichiro was infamous with the scouts for this: "He does that to keep his average over .320," they'd say. "Once his average is back up, he'll start pulling the ball again."
What he's actually doing in 2011 is grounding out to the right side, pulling the ball too much. Here the last 10 days, as he's come alive, Ichiro has smoked a number of hot shots over the SS's head.
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=== Check Your Bookie, Dept. ===
There are 10,000 confusing factors in a chess position, and the master's job is to point his finger at one factor and say, "THAT one."
You could argue Ichiro's 2012 a thousand ways, both UP and DWN. (My favorite argument DWN would be Ichiro's long swing.)
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For me the single over-arc'ing factor, the one louder than the others, is this --- > 37-38 is young for a HOF leadoff hitter. That is the historical perspective, and it's the 30,000-foot view here.
You wouldn't expect Ichiro to be done now, so if you're confused about whether he is, then your default assumption is ... what?
Corollary 1: Ichiro is lighter, and fitter, even than Lofton, Raines, Molitor, or Biggio. All those guys were quality players at 39-40, and Ichiro is small compared to any of them.
Corollary 2: Ichiro's intent is to play until he's 50.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
I don't have a lot of doubt that Ichiro will hit .320 in 2012. Hey, amigo: do you have a lot of doubt that he'll hit .320 this September?!
It's not a slam dunk: next year's AL-only roto draft, you might want to drop Ichiro to the 3rd or 4th round or something. Maybe Ichiro really can't start attacking the ball like he did up through 2010 -- maybe he really can't snap the bat and the back shoulder through any more. I don't know why that would be, but it's possible.
Ichiro's thinking that he'll play 10-15 more years, not 1 more year. I know that the 2011 season has been maddening, but the facts are the facts. At 38, Ichiro's comps had a lot of years left.
Figure 3:1 odds-on that Ichiro is going to have a good season in 2012 -- say, +20 to +30 runs, maybe touching +40 with defense and baserunning. In view of his comps, that's probably conservative.
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=== 2013f Contract Extension?, Dept. ===
My man Geoff Baker has been crusading against the idea of giving Ichiro big money for his age-39 seasons and beyond.
If Geoffy ever finds this grid, he won't need anything else. :- ) It's rare indeed for a player to post a +4 win season at age 38 and beyond.
The HOF leadoff hitters -- Rickey, Lofton, etc -- tended to give you +2 win seasons at ages 38, 39, and 40. You could figure Ichiro for another +1 win defensively, but that's going to be about it for reasonable projection.
The M's are looking at +20, +25 runs from Ichiro next year, another +10 on defense, which makes him a very good player. But scenarios of playing until he's 50 will hopefully not involve 20% of the ballclub's payroll.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
I came into this article expecting to disagree with what seemed like an overly optimistic take on Ichiro from you at the onset...you have been bbanging the drum for a while that Ichiro should age well and I haven't fully bought it because of the long swing and the funky mechanics. But the video footage just EXPLODES off the page...I didn't even have to read the text to know the problem. For a guy who's swing is still mechanically fine, I can see the difference in intent there...instantly. The 2009 footage shows him lower down after followthrough as well...his whole body is down on the ball...perhaps that's why his grounders that year were more like liners that hit dirt...because he was down on the ball better and thus hitting low pitches more squarely and this year, he's not down on the ball enough and he's hitting higher bouncers that are slower?
But overall, I agree that he is clearly not "into" his swing as well...not attacking the ball as well. It makes everything make sense...I love it when that happens.
My advice would be to show Ichiro those images and tell him to swing harder. LOL
If this is true, is Wedge the wildcard here? Is he the first manager (perhaps since Lou) that can challenge Ichiro and draw the best out of him? The two times this season that Wedge has had a talk with Ichiro - first making him sit down to take a day off and second by chastising him for the ridulous bunt attempt - Ichiro has responded with a stretch of more normal "Ichi" like performance. Both times, he started stinging the ball more before regressing a bit after a while.
Wedge keeps saying that he cannot analyze or fix Ichiro's swing, any more than anyone else possibly could. Which makes sense. But what if Wedge can actually *manage* Ichiro the baseball player, if not Ichiro the hitter? That is something we haven't seen in Seattle since Pinella left.
Maybe it's nothing...maybe not. Ichiro has always been a cerebral, stoic player - it the thing that drives his critics absolutely crazy. Melvin, Hargrove and Wakamatsu simply couldn't deal with it. They couldn't reach Ichiro at all. But Wedge...maybe...
Podcast here.
Implication: Ichiro makes too many "quick outs."
Wedge indicates its a done deal in his head, but he still needs to massage Ichiro on the concept.
Sounds like Monty, Smoak and Carp at 3-4-5 in some order, and Wells in there somewhere (thinks there's "something there" with Wells).
That puts Ichiro #2 or #6/7?
Brief mention of Montero taking some ground balls at 1b.
Seager presumptive at 3b, but want to look at other "kids" there (meaning not Figgins).
VERY interesting interview.
It sounds to me like he's OPEN to Ackley at leadoff, but he wants him in the 3-hole as well.
One thing is clear, in Eric Wedge's plans Ichiro is not "entitled" to leadoff.
Just as a quick aside ... since this was written at the end of August and suggested Ichiro would hit .320 in September ... what was Ichiro's final month like?
.268/.303/.375 (.678)
Particularly alarming was the spike in Ks, (18) which was a monthly worst.
While the Tsunami may have been on Ichiro's mind, his best month was April, (.328/.380/.378 .758). That was the only month he posted an OPS above .700.
While a bounceback is not out of the question, there simply isn't a previous HoF leadoff hitter who matches up well with Ichiro.
Carew might be closest, but Rod walked a lot more frequently. But Carew took a major dive in production at age 35, (not 37/38). He actually took a second dive later and was 100 points below his career .822 OPS in both his age 38 and 39 seasons.
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As far as Ackley leading off ... I'll believe it when I see it. I would expect Guti or Figgins to get a shot at leadoff before Ackley. I like the idea that Ichiro 'might' be moved down in the order. But, Ichiro will show up in shape and ready to put 2011 in the rearview. I think the odds of starting the season anywhere but leadoff are slim and none. I think he gets six weeks (minimum) to convince the club one way or the other before they make that move.
But count me among those who are skeptical that Ichiro has any significant bounce-back left in him. I hope he proves me wrong, I'd be glad to import the crow and the utensils to eat it.
One thing I will disagree with you on, it sounds in the interview like Eric Wedge is ready, indeed itching to lead the charge into the post-Ichiro-is-our-star-and-face-of-the-franchise era. He clearly said Ichiro's game is not what he wants from a leadoff hitter, and implied that previous attempts to have Ichiro conform to Wedge's agenda have not been successful. Wedge is not dissing Ichiro. He's just telling it like it is.
When he's mentioning Figgins as a possible TOTO (that's Top Of The Order, I kinda like my acronym!) candidate as an alternative to Ichiro that tells me a whole lot.
Wedge's priority: We've GOT to score runs this year. Wedge's pathos: This is no longer 2011, and in 2012 we're going to subordinate most things to reaching that goal. The end of the era of entitlement in Seattle now, finally includes Ichiro. No disrespect intended, but team goals come first for EVERYBODY now.
When asked about what he wants in a leadoff hitter he first said "he needs to get on base," then he added "he needs to help the number two hitter." The implication in context was that he felt Ichiro has done neither under his tenure as manager.
I think Wedge means business when it comes to using spring training to see if he is happier starting the season with somebody else in the leadoff spot.
Man, Wedge can't work miracles but I sure love the way he talks. And this season he sounds determined to weed out any elements that stand in the way of being competitive with this young team. He said the same thing at the end of last season.
They gave him one game at leadoff last year, and he actually accelerated the bathead through the zone with some intention. He had a single and double and IIRC, he looked like a different player.
IF Ichiro is going to move out of the 1 slot, I'd actually like to see him in ... the 2 slot. :- )
Ichiro was never a leadoff guy in Japan. He just hits leadoff here because of the 200 hits goal.
Moving him to 2 would still give him a great shot at 200 hits, if he plays well, and we could see him swing the bat with an open right side once in a while.
.............
In addition to the "enthusiasm" angle in the original article here, it was later discovered that Ichiro led the league in highlight defensive plays against him. There is such a thing as a bad-luck BABIP. That's going to have SOME effect in a bounce-back.
Eric Wedge is an extremely impressive leader. If he hadn't been a baseball man, he'd have been a three-star general.
Man, Wedge can't work miracles but I sure love the way he talks.
The Seattle cyber-sphere wants to view him (and everything...) through the prism of whatever the state of our saber understandings happen to be at the moment. Through that lens, he (and every ML manager in the game) fails to astonish.
For an individual seeing a deeper, stats-and-intuition-blended, picture -- let's say Jack Zduriencik -- you've got a manager here who is (against all odds) running a tight ship and doing it quite thoughtfully.