1
I didn't think Ackley would be so awesome right off the bat. Hes incredible.
Trayvon UP already?!
So tweeteth the town oracle. Greg Halman down, but not out, Wily Mo Pena out but not down.
Intriguing question: the playing time from here out. I suppose the M's could bring Trayvon up and break his rhythm by playing him once in four days ... :- / ... if so, the benefit would be to get him that "acclimation" cup of coffee, like Peguero got early this year, like Mike Carp has had done to him three times.
***
For those who doubted Tray-vonn's power, G-Money linked us to a video that lays all such doubts waste. A picture's worth a thousand words, babe.
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Mike Carp is hitting .357/.390/.554 since returning, is hitting .400 this year vs. LHP's, and has brought his EYE from 1:7 to 5:11 in the last week.
His swing looks even better than his stats: this year (including his earlier run) his line drive rate sits at 31.3% ! He keeps swinging this way (not OPS+'ing 160 this way) and he's yer new DH, folks.
So Trayvon appears to be in a 4-to-make-3 outfield rotation... we'll see...
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M's have scored 65 runs in their last 15 games (4.33 pg), scoring 4-9 runs in 60% of those games. 4.33 is precisely league average, ballpark not considered, so the last 15 games, the M's scoreboard has changed more often than average.
Shame we didn't have that going on in July, eh?
Don't know what this has to do with anything, but just thought I'd mention it dept: having played 39 games, 1/4 of a full season, Ackley's OPS+ is at 165, with a gorgeous 15:21 EYE ... like he says, it's been a rough ride, not having any idea what anybody's going to throw.
Ackley has hit 24% line drives, 42% DiMaggio rising fly balls, 35% grounders, an impeccable BIP profile that screams nothing but DANGER, WILL ROBINSON to opposing pitchers. When Ackley connects, you don't know where the ball's going to end up, except that it's going to be hard to get there.
TJM's George Brett comps look better by the day. Brett had the same kind of DiMaggio rising-line-drives shape to his hits.
***
The M's offensive corruption has stopped on a dime, returning several cents' change.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
On point article by Baker.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2015807952_a_must-rea...
I agree with a lot here. Prospects were underrated an era earlier and overrated in the current era. I also agree that it makes it harder for low payroll teams to contend.
Aside from raising payroll, I think more 'specs for young proven talent (that can be locked up for a few years cheap) deals need to made to take advantage of this. Span would be one example.
Also be more aggressive in spending money in the draft and internationally. Once hard-slots are introduced teams won't be able to steal talents later in the draft for free. The talent doesn't neccesarrily need to pan out as it opens up a ton of options in trade given the inflated value of prospects in the current era.
3
I agree with you that the Mariners need to choose a few prospects they believe in and package the rest for known commodities. I happen to think Robinson is a guy I'd like to keep, but hey...reasonable man can differ. The fact that we got anything of value (prospect-wise) at all makes us a big winner this deadline compared to most clubs.
4
But remember that 15 games includes the last 8 of the losing streak, the way the M's have been playing the last 7 games is almost enough to get hope back up. Did anybody buy Sandy a beer for that streaky prediction yet?
5
I bought him a Diet Fanta and left it somewhere on Peachtree Street.
No seriously, despite the fact that I butt heads with Sandy on some aspects of how the M's should approach the rebuild, I have tons of respect for his knowledge, and his analytical and reasoning skills. One sharp cookie.
His streakiness prediction has proved to be spot on. Now if we can just get the winning streaks to match up with the losing streaks...
6
If the Mariners let this one end at about 12 or 13.
7
Sounds more like a setup for a Smoak trip to the DL.
Carp 1B, Wells LF, Gutierrez/Robinson CF workshare/platoon, Ichiro RF with rotating DH might be the way ahead.
8
Honestly, the streak call was (IMO) pretty obvious. Having 5 good starters (no gaping hole in the 4 or 5 slot), is what you need to extend winning streaks.
But, the offense was obviously going to remain among the worst in baseball. A 79 team OPS+ is inducive to long losing streaks. (And my take on the bullpen was that it would be much weaker than it turned out to be, which would negate some of the win-streakiness).
Most people would see the big strength on pitching and the big hole in hitting and assume they balance out. But, I've seen repeatedly the psychological realities of "extremism" in sports. Good or Bad play "feeds on itself". So, when pitchers get hot, they will tend to all get hot at once. Likewise, when a team slumps, it is common for the whole team to slump.
Yes, there will be periods of .500 ball for a team as extreme as the Ms. But, the streaks were much more likely (IMO) than from a more uniformly mediocre club.
The final losing streak, of course, was extended when the starting pitching imploded after the break. I certainly didn't call that. But, that (IMO), was an artifact of the initial hitting-driven part of the streak. Once the streak got to a certain length, the pitchers didn't expect they could win 3-2. And suddenly, they're hoping to win 1-0, and the whole thing feeds on itself.
However, I have no feeling for the 4/5 pitchers yet, so I wouldn't be betting on any extended winning streaks the rest of the way. But, I would be willing to predict the club plays .500 ball (or above) from August 1st to the end of the season.
9
For me, it wasn't the polarity of the team structure that stuck out, but the homogeneity of the hitting as well. The M's continuously run a lineup that is one-dimensional, which makes it difficult to 'solve' the opposing pitchers. It's one thing to have good hitters, but it's another to have hitters who have similar profiles with similar weaknesses.
Reducing the diversity of the lineup is like not mixing pitches. It makes it easy for opposing teams to stick to one game plan, as opposed to having a game plan for everyone in the lineup.
The M's are simply a team that pitchers can easily get into a grove with.
10
Not to beat a dead horse . . . . especially since it's only ever lived in my imagination, but the Reds have Yonder Alonso - nominally a 1B/OF guy - taking reps at 3B. He outwieghs Carp by about 30 pounds.
11
The one thing I do like about Baker is how he rails against Mariner ownership and their distaste for winning big when they have the resources to do so.
And yes, prospects are overvalued now.... sort of.
I stand by my assertion that building a winning team is about getting the best 25 guys on the team by whatever means necessary. A bold statement, I know. : ) But it bears consideration when arguing about how to build a roster, deciding what players to trade or keep, etc. And Baker's right, if you're willing to spend the money you can build a team in a year vs. 10. We watched Gillick do it.
But Baker presents this as too simplistic. The idea is NOT 'prospects are overvalued'. Because if you look at WS winners, you'll see that most often- almost all the time - the team won with a core of internally developed talent. The Giants won with thier home-grown pitching core. The Yankees with Jeter, Pettite, Rivera, Cano. Phillies with Utley, Howard, Hamels. And so on.
You would have a difficult time convincing me that the Phillies overvalued Utley when he was a prospect. Or that Jeter, or Lincecum, or any of those guys were 'overvalued' while in the minors. They became the heart and soul of championship teams.
This is why, I imagine, Sandy argues to grow your home superstars first before acquiring free agent ones. It's hard to find a case where a team did it without homegrown superstars.
So I'm not so sure teams overvalue their great prospects. Teams know that if they're going to win, they need to have a few of them be studs in MLB. And you can never be quite sure which prospects will turn in to HOF-type players.
This is where a Zduriencik or other super talent evaluator is key to the org. You need to be able to shuffle out the mid-and high-mid prospects - even very good prospects - for great ones who can be difference makers on championship teams. And keep the great ones! (*coughchoocaberacough*)
Z is playing chess while the blogosphere plays checkers. His mantra of improving the talent level in the organization is a simple principle with wide ramifications. More and better talent yields more and better chances at impact superstars, and more and better opportunities to trade for impact superstars or higher-grade prospects. He's building a war chest.
This is all just stars and scrubs basics of course...
The M's have Felix. Pineda. Ackley. That's 3 superstars. Another one or two, an impact free agent or two, and the M's are knocking on the door of greatness.
12
Making that catch while running a country mile to go right through some fat lunk in the stands who clubbed him across the grill for his trouble...and that catch was never in doubt for him.
Trayvon's really growing on me.
~G
13
Over here.
So where does his surprising power come from, the strength that allowed him to hit 26 home runs at Albuquerque this season before the Mariners acquired him?
"I think it's the size of my bat," he said. "I started swinging a 35-inch bat in '09, and the home runs started coming around. But it's still me. I'm one of the smallest guys in this locker room."
Robinson was still soaking everything in on Saturday, still smiling and enjoying his new surroundings. It didn't hurt that he made a great catch and got a hit off All-Star starter Jered Weaver in his debut.
He won't soon forget that first hit, either, a single to left in the sixth inning.
"Right when he released the ball, I said, 'There it is.' I just threw the bat at it," said Robinson. "When I was running, I was thinking, you'd better not catch it, Vernon [Wells]."
As for facing Weaver?
"His arm comes out so far. The first at-bat, it felt like the ball was coming from third base," Robinson said. "I was thinking, 'Well, it's going to cut.' But it stayed straight. Then he threw the front-door sinker that struck me out, and I was like, 'Wow, I've never seen that before.' It was kind of 'Welcome to the big leagues, rook.'"
35 inch bat for a 5'10 guy? Wow. He's got lots of plate coverage and a longer swing simply because of the lever he's using. I wonder what Matt Kemp swings. He strikes out 160 times a year but with good, leveraged power. He's a bigger guy but the principle is the same.
And I love that he can tell what he CAN hit - now we just need to expand the number of pitches he can do something with. Maybe the bat has something to do with it. Watching his game evolve should be fun.
~G
14
He takes that long lever, is short to the ball with it and drives it to oppo CF over the fence. Long HR for a 5'10 CF (playing left tonight). Dodgers fans must gnash their teeth with every swing.
And nice of the Mariners to call him up in LA where his home town people can come to the games. Well done, kid. Good coupla games so far I gotta say, showcasing what he can do.
~G