Dude.  You're harshing my mellow.

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=== PREREQs 101, 102 ===

You'd be better off to read first this article on his mechanics, then this article on his pitch arsenal, then return to read this one.  But you're a closet rebel, so indulge yourself and skip the prereq's.  Who's to know?   Pistons poppin', ain' no stoppin' ... nowwwww Paaaa-nuh-maaaaaaa.... Pan! a! Ma! Hah!

 

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=== Defining Attributes ===

We haven't gotten to use the phrase "mutually exclusive and mutually exhaustive" all year.  One of my all-time fave concepts in life.  It describes the two people in the last marriage I went to ...

To find a young LHP who is truly similar to Furbush, it says here that these moving parts are the ones that give you "irreducible complexity."

• LHP
• 3 legit pitches, all mixed well, all getting K's
• Mediocre to below-average command
• Three True Outcomes in the neighborhood of 7k, 3-4bb, high HR
• It would help if the comp were not graceful physically, a la Moyer, Bedard, Lee ... perhaps being tall

When I was a kid, it seemed like every other left hand starter was like Charlie Furbush.  Bill James talked about John Smiley once:  "Mixes three pitches, stays aggressive, pitches ahead in the count.  It was workin' a hunnerd years ago, and in a hunnerd more, it'll still be workin'."

You'd think that there would be any number of LHP's mixing three pitches 50-25-25, throwing strikes, and carving out a career.  Oddly, there aren't, at least in 2011.

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=== Candidates ===

Although Furbush has a pretty electric all-around game, of course you can't use guys like Erik Bedard or David Price as comps.  Bedard is a two-pitch guy; that's a totally different thing.

Sabathia has much too good a fastball; Jon Lester has far too much polish to compare to the raw Furbush, much less Cliff Lee.  Any lefty who is painting the corners is going to be a non-starter for this comp.

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So, which LHP's make a fairly-electric 3-pitch game work, being a little wild in the strike zone?

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Ricky Romero pitches a lot like Furbush, but better.  Romero has a change that is a fearsome weapon, and Romero has pretty good command.

Think Romero's too optimistic.  Wup, now that I check it, Romero's got 7+ K and 3-4 walks, just like Furbush.

Furbush could aspire to the Romero comp if his change-curve developed consistent results to match Romero's changeup.

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John Danks walks 2 batters a game and is therefore shunned as a comp.  What's the holdup with Danks, anyway?  Why isn't this guy a star?

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You know what, I always remembered the young Barry Zito as having Bedard-like command.  Maybe not.  He was always a 7k, 3.5bb lefty, though he worked off two pitches.

Still don't like the comp too well, but I'm talking myself into the idea that a LHP can win with a good amount of walks...

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C.J. Wilson, since he switched to starting, works off a 91 fastball and three pitches.  My problem with that comp is that Wilson's curve has become awfully good lately ... well, maybe not.  Visually I thought it was, but Fangraphs says the curve is being hit.

Possibly C.J. is the prototype to which Furbush aspires.  In the rotation, C.J. gets 7+ strikeouts and 3-4 walks, just as I see Furbush doing.

C.J. keeps HR's way down because he gets lots of grounders.  But then again, we've noted that Furbush's FB has nice sink too.

Yeah, if I were Furbush I'd be watching C.J. tape.

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Ryan Rowland-Smith, when he first came up, brought it at 90-94 with a vicious curve.  IIRC he fanned 10+ men in his first year.

Then the arm went, the 'net scorn stayed .... maybe Charlie Furbush gives us a second go-round, a deja vu on what RRS coulda been if his arm hadn't shredded out so soon.

Seriously:  Furbush reminds me of all kinds 'a Hyphen, the first year RRS came up.  Good on yer, mate!

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=== Dr's Prognosis ===

For me, Furbush has a great shot to become a go-to LH reliever on a contender, a #3 reliever behind two big righties -- a Paul Assenmacher, Scott Radinsky type.

In the rotation, Furbush has enough lightning in his game, that it's worth a look to see whether he can put together a Romero-, Wilson-wannabe career.  You can't sell Furbush's stuff short.  Batters clearly have a hard time seeing his pitches.

He looks a little kludgy to fire 200 IP the next three years, but some lefties are kludgy.  It'll be interesting watching his next eight-odd starts.

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