I devoted much of my younger baseball studies to the examingation of baseball history, both numerically and through historical representation. For you to assume that my general dislike for the Carp at third idea comes from ignorance of baseball history is not really fair to me or my position.
I was not knee-jerk reacting...I liked the idea when I first read it...then I thought about it and decided it probably wouldn't work and compared Carp to Ryan Braun in terms of speed.
Carp doesn't have spectacular range at first base either...and even if he did...why then didn't the Mets play Keith Hernandez at third and get their gold glove over there and take their chances with sluggers at first?
I disagree with the notion that the same range is required for third and first. If that were the case, then the number of 1B Assists and 3B A would be approximately equal...and they're not. Or at the very least, if that were the case, then when you add first base unassisted putouts and assists they would compare favorably to third base putouts plus assists...and they don't. There's about a 20% difference.
People are raving about Carp's defense, but he never before profiled (from the scouting perspective...I'm intentionally ignoring sabermetrics here because I don't think we have the data for that assessment yet) as a particularly adept first baseman. In fact, scouts were saying he was not good enough defensively to justify a big league job if he didn't pound out thirty longballs...the Olerud path wouldn't work for him because he was a mediocre fielder. Maybe he's made a few web-gem grabs, but defense cannot really be observed wiht only the eye...and especially at first base where the difficult plays get made almost before the camera even gets lined up to see them.
I am inclined to continue to believe the scouts when theys say that first base is much easier to play than third. I'm also inclined to believe the scouts when they say that Carp is only OK at first, meaning he'll be poor at third. There's a range of how poor he'd be, maybe he'd be tolerably bad, I don't know. But I am not inclined to make that switch and potentially screw him up at the plate when he's just grooving it in. We don't need to do that.
Terry McDermott continues to clang the cowbell for Carp at 3B :- )
In the great Yonder Alonso / Joe Torre tradition! Plus, you need to make some space for the rooks in left, whichever ones don't get traded. If it's me, I'd spend some time thinking about a Wells-Ackley-Ichiro outfield with Trayvon as the fourth (switch-hitting pinch-hitter, pinch-runner). If you want to maximize Ackley's bat, CF is at least as good an option as 2B with the added thrill that we get to watch him run more often.
Smoak-Seager-Ryan-Carp infield. Use the Guti money to help pay Fielder.
....
Terry's idea is less crazy that the Ackley-2B idea was. The disconnect here, the reason that so many are brushing the idea off, is probably because we're not very literate with baseball history before 1990.
Throughout most of the 20th century, 3B was a place that managers put their big bats and sacrificed defense. That's because footspeed, an 8-yard dash, isn't relevant at 3B. The step-and-dive allows behemoths to get away with a beer gut ... for exactly the same reasons that behemoths can play 1B.
Think about it. Why would a 1B's lateral range matter any less than a 3B's would? It wouldn't. A ball through the right side hurts as much as one through the left side. First basemen field bunts, too.
Don't knee-jerk a response: think for ten seconds and then type. ;- ) You'd gladly let Prince Fielder play 1B. You don't care how slow or fat he is, if he can give you 40 homers. Why then, specifically, wouldn't that apply at 3B, if he could throw over to first base? It does for Pablo Sandoval.
Mike Carp wouldn't catch a hot shot at 3B? Okay, then why would he be able to catch a hot shot at 1B? Actually he can. Carp has pretty quick hands on hot-shot one-hoppers over there.
***
True, a big fat 1B needs a waterbug 2B playing next to him -- the whole infield tends to swing around to cover for him.
Therefore, if you put Prince Fielder (or Harmon Killebrew, or Bob Horner, or Mike Carp) at 3B, you'd better have a slick SS. Carp or Trumbo at 3B really would necessitate a Gold Glove candidate at short.
***
There have been some funky 3B conversions in baseball history, and I for one would enjoy the offensive bounty that would result ... the kiddies contingent here at SSI probably is not aware of the ways in which old-timey managers used to deploy power at 3B ...
Russell Branyan, anybody? Harmon Killebrew?
Here is the latest on Mike Trumbo. You could easily see a September Wedge saying all the same things about Carp that Scioscia said about Trumbo. Maybe that's why Terry is so persistent about Carp/Trumbo, because Scioscia tipped him off to the advantages? ;- )
Ever watch Bob Horner play? Kevin Mitchell played 3B for a while.
Bobby Bonilla played a lot of 3B. At age 34, Bonilla played 150 games at 3B for the Florida Marlins -- played terrible, terrible defense, hit .300 with 96 RBI, and the Marlins won the World Series.
Bonilla's hack job at 3B helped the Marlins keep their offense up to 98. Sounds like a 2012 Seattle blueprint.
Terry mentions about Joe Torre... after Torre's legs went out at catcher, the 1971-74 Cardinals put him at 3B. You think that was because Red Shane-Deest, a HOF second baseman who made his rep with his glove, didn't appreciate the value of defense?
When Johnny Bench's legs went out at catcher, guess where the Reds put him. 3B was the new 1B. Got a 1B who can throw great? Put him at 3B. Why not?
***
One big reason against: the Bill James Golden Law that you put "tweener" defenders at their easier positions. Baseball's tough enough without self-inflicted pressure.
One big reason for: Carp's work ethic, arrogance, and finished development.
***
There's no telling what it would do for our offense, to put Carp at 3B. Carp, Smoak, Ackley and Prince Fielder with all the OF slots still open?
Can't say I'm on the same sheet o' music yet Terry, with Carp being a bit dubious even at 1B ... the 3B conversions are usually verrrry slick gloves at 3B ... but hey. If Trumbo-3B is good enough for the rodent Angels, Carp-3B is good enough for us.
Ackley stays at second, though.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Wasn't the whole point about being ahead of the curve, seeing the value in something everybody else undervalues?
I'm not in full 3B buy-in mode. Not even close. But it is worth considering. It makes little sense with the lineup we have now, I think. But IF the FA you could get was a 1B/DH, then it would be an option. By necessity it would be an all in deal. Acquire the FA and go all in with Carp at third. Not many fall-back options, unless Carp goes to LF and Guti goes away.
With Carp crushing the ball and driving in runs right now I would be a bit hesitant. But position changes mid-career are not unknown. Who would have thought that Dale Murphy could make the transistion from C to CF and be a GG'er. Pete Rose was a 2B, I mean LF, I mean 3B, I mean 1B and hit everywhere.
Dick Allen playe every day, 232 games, at 3rd in his first two fulltime seasons. He was no Nureyev, but didn't stink it up. Steve Garvey came up a 3rd baseman and would have remained there if a certain Penguin didn't come up a year later.
Torre, of course, but even Yaz played 31 games at 3B in '73.
Doc's rational is right. If you can field the ball at first, generally you can field it at 3rd.
I'ld give you even money Carp could make the transition and be passable or better. Probably better.
Would I do it? Not without a Fielder or equivalent.
Are there better places to invest $20M? Probably.
But it could work.
And, obviously, if I can be a student of 1950's baseball, you can certainly be a student of 1970's baseball.
Not meaning to take away from your scholastic credentials. Just kind of chatting tongue-in-cheek about the whippersnappers.
Sigh.
Really?
Everyone has forgotten the impact of swapping positions on HITTING from the Fig/Lop flip-flop?
So, we're really entertaining the concept that the kid with 300 great ABs is going to learn a position he's never played ... from scratch ... in the majors ... and there will be no impact whatsoever on his offense.
Okay, okay ... I'm borrowing trouble. There's no actual desire to compete for anything in 2012 after all, so having a psuedo-rookie attempt a position swap in the majors might be 'momentariily' detrimental to his overall development ... but he'll bounce back just like Figgins and Lopez did ... right?
(/end sarcasm)
Obviously, the club has shown TREMENDOUS flexibility in regards to defensive experimentation. After all, they moved Carp from 1B to OF after acquiring Smoak. And they opted to try Ackley at second, (which took him a year and a half to 'master' ... in the minors).
But ... c'mon. The suggestion of Carp for 3B has got to be the largest example of fixation on an external resource I've ever seen. The ONLY reason to suggest this is because of the FOCD (Fielder obsessive compulse disorder) our here in Seattle Cyberspace.
Suggesting such a move is an absolute death sentence for Seager ... (are we planning on power flushing Nick Franklin, too?)
The real problem with almost all of these magical Fielder scenarios is that there is a growing assumption of future performance for ALL of these productive rookies. But, the likely reality is that some will regress given more time. (Has everyone really forgotten the Saunders implosion already?)
Casper - 140
Ackley - 135
Carp - 134
Seager - 120
Trayvon - 118
Willy Mo - 110
Smoak - 99
Are *ANY* of these OPS+ numbers reliable? Most people think Ackley is for real - and many expect Smoak to do better and Casper to do worse. But, the simple truth is, there is massive uncertainty about these kids. Who is flash in the pan and who is going to improve over the next 3 years? I dunno. Nobody does.
But, if Carp is moved to third, Seager goes to AAA and if Carp tanks how do you know it wasn't really due to the position switch? Or, what if, he hits well, but has 20 throwing errors by the end of ST? Are we going to try Fielder at 3B? Or Smoak?
What the club needs to do is find out with a LOT more confidence exactly how good all these break-out bats really are ... and THEN make a decision on where it can best spend the big bucks to get better. Because the optimal move could turn out to be ... the offense doesn't need ANY help, but the rotation needs a veteran star.
The reason lefty 1B are preferred and most 3B are righty is that you want to wear the glove on the hand furthest away from the bag. Carp is a lefty. His glove hand will hamper him.
He'll also have ~70% of the hot-shots at him, since most of those hard hits are pulled and 70% of the batters are righty. That's the reason it's the hot corner.
And diving, then recovering and throwing to first is different than diving, then getting up and jogging to the bag. A lot of things can go wrong in that throw.
Could Carp do it? Sure, he COULD do it. Has he ever in his career played 3B? Well yes...for 12 games, in rookie ball, when they're moving guys just to get everyone the chance for some ABs and defense is incidental to the process.
Do I think the Mariners, who lived and breathed the idiom that a run saved equals a run scored to the point that they fielded the worst offensive team of the DH era, are willing to forego defense to that degree?
I don't.
It'd solve our offensive problem at 3B though, assuming mistakes in the field didn't get into Carp's head.
~G
What the club needs to do is find out with a LOT more confidence exactly how good all these break-out bats really are ... and THEN make a decision on where it can best spend the big bucks to get better.
And on several of them, they need to know NOW. IIRC, Carp and Halman are out of options, as is Trayvon Robinson (I think this was his 7th year with the Dodgers, and they would have had to start optioning him after his 4th I believe).
Casper Wells was on Detroit's 40 man in 2008, so he's out of options too.
Saunders should also be out of options.
We need to know about the kids, FAST, because we can't stash a lot of them any longer. They have to be on the 25 man, waived with the hope of sneaking them through, or traded.
I'm not messing with Carp any more right now. He's tried the OF, 1B, DH, and been through multiple callups this year. Let him play 1B/DH, or get some OF time, but 3B is asking a lot.
IMO, Carp, Trayvon and Wells are all on next year's team. Halman and Saunders don't make the grade. We have a lot of chaff to remove from the 40 man this winter, because there are a lot of folks who need to get on it and there are only so many slots available on the 25 man.
I expect to have backups in place for any players who falter - Carp is there at 1B if Smoak doesn't work out, Trayvon and Wells can be swapped if one is doing well and one is crashing, or to step in for Guti if needed. Seager and Figgins at 3rd, and Seager in case of emergency for Ackley as well. Bard and Olivo at catcher might be the plan, but I'd still like a young kid to tutor. I don't think Moore's gonna hold up.
But whatever we do, next year will be an interesting juggling act to get the ABs to all the bench players and run a full rotational complement of players instead of a static 9.
There WILL be regressions from players, or adjustments from the league. I expect to have 25 very useful players on the roster, instead of our normal useless bench + 3 idle bullpen spots.
Being able to fill the roster with talented players will be a unique feeling in recent years. Should be fun.
~G
...you might fairly describe me as a student of 1870s baseball just as much as I am a student of 1970s baseball...that being - "I've never seen a game played precisely the way it was played in either era first hand...but I've certainly read, watched documentary footage, analyzed the statistics etc...everything someone in my position can feasibly do"
I just urge a bit of caution regarding assuming that everyone who might disagree that it's the best solution to stick Carp at third just doesn't know what it looks like to play a slugger at third. There are, of course, many paths to victory...the Braves won many NLCs's in the 1990s playing the worst defensive third baseman in major league history with at least 1000 games played at the position (who happened to be a phenomenal hitter)...so it's not impossible for Carp to hold his own at third...I just think we have other alignments that work better such that we don't need to stick Carp in a position for which he has no training and risk losing 25 runs on defense just to get another bat in the line-up.
Baker says that Saunders has one option left. Halman is out, though.
You're aware that he wears his glove on his left hand though, right? :- )
Or prob'ly I'm confused about what you're sayin'.
***
To be sure, it takes a better defender to play 3B than 1B and am definitely not saying that Carp could play 3B.
That said, I personally would rather face the righties at 3B than to try to hold Ricky Weeks on 1B and then direct my attention suddenly to Prince Fielder at the plate... how bout you...
It sez here that Mike Carp is firmly in the Ackley, rather than the Chone Figgins, category as far as head cases go.
That said, this discussion is theoretical. The M's will put Mike Carp at 3B right after they put Ichiro at closer :- )
Give me 3 consecutive seasons of 30,000+ with all the gaps filled and I'll ask for a Princes luxury. And, if Ichiro doesn't DH next year so the team can actually rebuild and start rolling the dice in the outfield, then I just don't know what to say. Pull out the little potato before you lump on the big one. And, if Catricala starts OPS'ing .900 in TAC next year then the team has found its 3rd sacker. Is Ackley a 60 to 65 defender in CF? Then good enough for me.
Thanks for stimulating it, Doc.
I just want some bats. It looks to me like the team has a pipeline of potentially great young pitching, most of it free. You could really build a franchise if you matched that pitching with a real offense.
I wouldn't move Carp, either, if he had a place to play. I'd just like to get some real offense on the team and if that meant giving the DH spot to a legit power hitter, I'd sure as heck try it. Left field is overflowing with good candidates. One of them is going to have to play. That leaves third as the real hole. I'd like to see if he could fill it.
For some reason we M's fans obsess on the difficulty of changing poisitions. I'm not saying it's easy (cf., Figgins, although I'm not sure how much the position of anything other than his ego had anything to do with that). Yet other teams do it all the time: Youklis.
I think Carp is going to hit for some power and I think Smoak will, too. Having them around with Ackley for a few years is a pleasing prospect. But think what they'd do with a real slugger in the midst of them. Lineups really are more than the sum of their parts. Big bats make little bats bigger. I'd be willing to do a lot to build a line-up where the only feasible places for Olivo to bat would be eighth or ninth.
I'm not fixated on Fielder, Sandy, and I agree that building a plan around getting him involves a bit of magical thinking. I was just using him as an example. I think it'd be more likely to get somebody in a big trade package and sluggers don't get dealt that often any more. It'd be more likely to get somebody with middling power - one of the Dodger pair, maybe - in which case Carp could stay at DH.
And, what? Nobody loves Ackley in CF? I just love watching the kid run.
Granted, my response was more Jim Rome than I typically get ... but I don't get at all why Carp is suggested as a possible 3B candidate, but not Smoak ... or, Fielder?
In fact, I don't get why 3B is viewed as "a problem" at this point. Seager, after a poor initial audition is posting a .749 OPS (112 OPS+) with an eye ratio better than Carp. He's currently a doubles machine, (was all the way through college). And MANY doubles machines turn into HR hitters as they age.
Asdrubal Cabrera, (often invoked to point out errors of the past), at age 22 had a .713 OPS with 20-2B and only 6-HR. This year he's at .809 with 29-2B and 21-HR with a month to play. (Or, you can go and check out Morse, perhaps).
Cano added 10 HRs when he hit age 26.
JJ Hardy had a 22/9 ratio as a 22-year old rookie. It morphed into 30/26 by age 24.
I dunno which kids will grow and which will fold. But, I do know with 100% certainty, if you never let the kids play, you'll never ever actually see a kid go from a .700 doubles hitter to an .850 slugger. Instead, you'll pay through the nose and trade away prospects to go and get the guy somebody else developed AFTER they have peaked and are preparing to plunge.
...I agree with Sandy. We actually have two semi-interesting third basemen to try rather than breaking Carp in at a new posiition for no reason. Seager looks interesting, though bad defensively...he should get reps there in ST...lots of reps) and I could still see Liddi turning into a factor. And right behind those guys you've got Martinez (just acquired)...so...let's just enjoy Carp giving us our first productive DH sine Gar, I say. :)
and a defensive wizard at 2B. Somebody who's able to make more than just routine plays. Somebody like this:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18641955&topic_id=&c_id=mlb...
and this:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18641511&topic_id=&c_id=mlb...
I only suggested Carp because I knew he had enough arm and athleticism to play OF, which usually means you have enough of each to play 3B. He's actually way more athletic than I ever dreamed. Maybe Smoak could move, too. I've no idea.
And in terms of trading propsects: Whether we like it or not, somebody is going to get moved. There are too many guys stacked up at the same position.
And then I realized the kid was Italian, and I became less confused.
Why else would you want to replace a 135 OPS+ at 2B with an 80 OPS+? Because you like prettier defense? How bad would Ackley's defense have to be in order to justify downgrading our already pitiful offense by allowing another Brendan Ryan level bat on the field?
Glove wizards are fine when you have clubbers around them. But we have two 80 OPS+ bats in Ryan and Olivo already playing every day, basically, and Guti's best month of the year only has him around that number too.
I think Giavotella is a better hitter than Ryan, and with his defense he should be a star...but we don't have him or anyone like him. While we're dreaming, I'd love to ditch Olivo for a catcher who can hit like Buster Posey and trade in Guti for Curtis Granderson, but I can't.
One of the reasons we moved Ackley was because if he could field the position adequately, his bat would be top-5 at that position instantly. Sure enough, among players with his number of ABs or greater, he's 4th in the majors among 2nd basemen in OPS, 8th in average and 2nd in OBP.
He's been absolutely tremendous offensively, perfectly average defensively...and you want to move him? To make that worth your time you'd need...we don't even know what you'd need, because defensive metrics suck. We know Ackley wouldn't have made at least one of those stops, but we also know Giavotella hasn't found his groove offensively yet and would be costing us more runs at the plate than he's saving in the field.
*shrugs* All things considered, I'd love to have plus defenders with plus bats all over the field. As it is, I'll take Brendan Ryan at short and see if Ackley and Seager can get better defensively as they go. There's no way the Ms move Ackley at this point, especially with all their outfield options. Get used to seeing him there, I guess.
~G
then you're still confused. It just happened that Giavotella made those plays yesterday and were a perfect fit for my purpose. His name could be von Weitzeker and still would have been a mere example, nothing more nothing less.
He could do it, I think. But moving a productive bat to 3B when there may be good options out there to fill that 3B spot probably isn't going to occur. Rightly so. As I said, if you go all in on Fielder AND you have 2 of the Wells, Guti, Trayvon in the lineup then Carp at 3B (or Wells) is the only thing left.
I don't think we make that all in bet. As I said, there are better investments out there.
Carp: 2-run double to win the game tonight.
Guys, he isn't moving to any position (other than LF, possibly).
My bet is that he stays at 1B and Smoak DH's.
Carp is good and he has a great ability to sit on the right pitch.
Consider: It hasn't been stated yet but Nick Franklin may be in the 3B mix next year.
But right now, if you assume (as Doc has posted) that you have a .300+ hitting Ichiro next year, then you begin to figure out that there is the potential for a 100+OPS offense.
Get there, and then shore up the bullpen, and you've got a winning squad. just how winning may be a matter of some luck.
But Paracorto is WAY off base and Sandy's post about Seager is right on.
I think the big questions right now do not revolve around who to acquire but how to maximize the chips we can trade.
Figgins...is he moveable? Will he ever again have a bat? Guti...does he have significant value (more and more I think Z is keeping him, or he wouldn't be playing every dang day)? League...His value is maxed right now. Which minor league arm is the right piece to move? Fascinating questions.
And I won't beat this horse but will mention the similarities:
In 1968 the New York Mets won 73 games. They scored only 473 runs, less than 3 a game. Of the 8 position players who started the most, only one was older that 25. Only one guy, among the six pitchers with the most starts, was over 25. They had a 111+ ERA.
The next year their 3B was a 21 year old who had moved straight up from AA (Nick Franklin, anyone?). They scored 632 runs with basically the same young lineup as the previous year. That's a run a game better.
Of the six pitchers with the most starts, only one was older than 26.
I cut my teeth on the '69 Miracle Mets. They beat one of the best teams in history and won the World Series.
Interesting times in Seattle. Watch and enjoy.
moe
The Italian thing was supposed to be funny but that big gap in my post is from the missing line where I make that clear. My apologies. :)
The post definitely doesn't come off the way I meant it.
I still wouldn't worry about Ackley at 2nd, though. He's not the perfect 2nd baseman, but neither was Honus Wagner, and he was probably the greatest ever.
You don't have to be perfect to be great, and luckily defense IS something that can be improved with effort. Ackley's already shown that with his performance at all the balls he can get to. We'll see if he can get to more of em as times goes by.
Would I rather he was Robbie Alomar? Okay, sure. But other than that lofty standard, there aren't a lot of guys I'd want to trade in the next decade of Ackley's career for. I think he's gonna be fabulous - as a second baseman.
~G
Robbie Alomar was a mediocre fielder at best at second base and Honus Wagner was perhaps among the top ten defensive second basemen of all time...I find it amusing that you picked your names exactly backwards. :)
the M's do not need to look for a natural 2B on the market since they have already. They even drafted him. And I do not think the present OFs corp can be considered acceptable for a winning club - as well catching of course. However I'm a very marginal fan and I'm fine if Ackley will stay at 2B.