The Zen of Minors K Rates - "Voluntary" Failure

The Dalai Lama advises forgetting about your problems by --- > focusing on other people's problems, and helping with them.  :- )

Beginners ask, "Why is that any less painful?"

He replies, laughingly, "The voluntary aspect to taking on others' suffering makes all the difference.  With your own problems there can be a feeling of helplessness."

Sandy ingeniously captured an abstract thought that I hadn't articulated:

The reason *I* would be intrigued by Trayvon way ahead of Saunders is because you have three different APPROACHES to hitting indicated over a 3 year period. 

That tells me he is altering his approach repeatedly ... and (oddly), managing to maintain a .300 average while doing so ... DESPITE the high K-rate. 

My sense is that he's using the same "approach" this year as in 2009 ... but he's harnessing a LOT more power. 

There is a real sense that Trayvon could play Figgins-ball if he chose, and fan a lot less, but that he's got the attack dial up to 11.

Sandy's factual point, about Trayvon using several different games and using them with solid returns, is convincing.

.

=== The Problem With K's ===

Thinkers in the comments are talking about two basic problems with a high strikeout rate:

1.  That your hits go way down, so a player's overall bases/out are not high enough.

2.  That minors K rates indicate fatal flaws in a player's swing.

Mostly we've talked about 1, and the consensus is that Trayvon's all-around game (HR's and/or SB's and/or BB's) should easily cover a low AVG.  

This is deductive reasoning, focusing on the effect of the K rates.

However, my (and I presume Taro's) problem with Trayvon's K rate is that it could suggest that he has fatal flaws in his swing, that will be exploited ruthlessly by ML pitching -- Saunders, Clement, et al.

This is inductive reasoning, focusing on the cause of the K rates.

***

Here is where SSI's assessment of Trayvon Robinson's, and Curtis Granderson's, swing becomes critical.

You can tell at a glance that Carlos Peguero's swing is keyed to a small part of the strike zone.  You can tell the same about Michael Saunders', since his sweet zone is out in front of the zone, close to the pitcher.  You can see (in retro, anyway) the stiffness and "clubbiness" of Clement's swing giving him problems on the hands, etc.

We're not blowing smoke.  We're sure you can see for yourself that Carlos Peguero's swing loop is the anti-KBIZLT.

***

Trayvon Robinson, and Curtis Granderson, keep their bats in the zone a long time; they swing level; they are somewhat crouched in Pete Rose fashion; they start their bats on the pitch plane; they appear to have no problem getting the bat head inside or outside.

Granderson's K's have, at many times, been sky-high.  Take out the "career minor league" paradigm, as I certainly do, and ask what a player did at his first attempt at AAA or MLB?

Granderson fanned fully 174 times as a rookie, and he wasn't a power hitter.  He fanned 129 times in 111 games in his first crack at AAA (being older than Trayvon).

Yet it didn't create an intuitive impression that he was overmatched.  It created an intuitive impression that he had learning to do.

***

Middle ground for me here is simple:  if a player's AA/AAA K's are high because he's getting overmatched, or because there are particular pitches he cannot deal with, that's a problemo.

If his AA/AAA K's are high --- > but due to no apparent fundamental reason, are simply due to aggressiveness and being rushed, you've got a different question.

***

We pull ourselves over a mountain here and find baseball scouts sitting on the other side.  They were never going to rule a player out (or in) because of any AAA statistic, as such.  They -- by "they" I mean "Eric Wedge" -- were going to try to project how a player would deal with this or that major league pitch.

.

Great convo,

Dr D

 

Comments

1

OK....no surprise here.  You can K a lot in the minors and still be a heck of a MLB player. 
Eric Davis and Jim Edmonds are kind of  Trayvon types.  Both OF's anyway.
Eric Davis struck out 219 times in 224 AA/AAA games.  He K'ed in 26% of his AAA PA's. He wasn't a bad player, you know.  .269-.358-.482  In fact, he's kind of what Trayvon's upside looks a whole bunch like.  More tater pop than we might see from Trayvon (Davis hit 37 once and 34 another time.  Lots of mid 20's) but also a CF.  In fact, the more I think about it, the more that line (minus 30 slg% points, is what we might see from our guy when he ceilings.
Jim Edmonds (also played CF). he struck out 136 times in 145 AAA games and 83 times in 70 AA games.  K's about 24% of the time in those levels.  He did just fine in the majors.
Davis walked .104 in the minors.  WAY better than the other two.  Edmonds=.078/Robinson .074
He plays CF, he'll bat at the top of the lineup.  .260-.340 and 45 x-base hits, makes him a terrific player.
We fell in love with Guti at .283-.339-.425 with 43 x-base hits.
Anderson doesn't have that level in him.?
He's worth liking a bunch at this point.  I know the K's are dang high, but he doesn't look like a guy who can't cover the plate.  He'll be OK
 
 

2
Taro's picture

Ya, Eric Davis and Jim Edmonds are good examples of high K guys that turned into star players. Same type of profile.
They were prospects in the 80s so not captured by the study.
Both K'ed at around 27% which is around Trayvon territory. Both also had a ton of power which is typical of the guys in this skillset that pan out, but you're not asking Trayvon to be a superstar neccesarilly.
Of course both of those guys were highschool draftees that took well less than 2000 PAs to reach the MLB, whereas Trayvon will be approaching 3000 PAs at the end of the year.
I think people are missing the point though. Its not that Trayvon is a gauranteed bust, its that hes far more likely to bust than an average top prospect. I'm simply saying why not sell high on Trayvon and invest in someone else?

5

Fast balls up, off speed down. 
In all those AB's, he only swung the bat four times.  he missed two offspeed pitches (LH) down and in, laced the FB (LH) the other way for a hit, and then roped one RH that sounds like a guy made a great catch.
Takes lots of pitches.  I wonder if his K rate is related to his patience.  Does he take a lot of pitches and end up with two strikes.  would be interesting to see his O-Zones rates.
I like his LH swing a lot.  patience, too.
 

6

What I actually really like about his swing is what he does with his back shoulder.  I watched him in the Tacoma games a couple of times.  I don't really know how to explain the way he curls his back shoulder at the end of a swing as he punishes a ball for tresspassing in the path of his bat.
There's a stillness at the plate that I appreciate with his set legs and just the snake-twitch back and forth of his hands before launch, a distant echo of that crazy business Sheffield used to do.  But he swings angry.  There's purpose and a hurtful intent in that swing once he decides to unleash it.
Like in this home run.
You pause that at about 29 seconds and you'll see his back shoulder is pointed where the home run went as he drives through the ball.  When he takes a swing he takes all of it.  But while they say guys "don't get cheated" like it's a bad thing and that a guy is over-committing...
Trayvon just hits with a purpose, IMO.  I don't know what the next year is gonna reveal about the flaws in his game, and how fast he can correct them.
But I AM interested in him.
~G

7

How far did that one go?   Trayvon's, not Bone's.
***
Great breakdown, G, especially re: the back shoulder.  LOL.  Sometimes you'll see a B.J. Upton or Vlad Guerrero do that.
Wish there was some way to embed that video in the sidebar :- )

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