I will not be surprised if 25 games into the '12 season Nick Franklin becomes the M's 3B.
We've got young bats, young arms and developing mojo/swagger, which is why we aren't spending $10M on Cuddyer or Willingham or somesuch.
I am really enjoying M's baseball right now.  Really.
Next ST I may just spotaniously combust with pleasure.
moethesmilingdog
 

Lonnie noted the other night that Erasmo posted this line in AAA:
8.1 IP, 7 hits, 1 run (on a HR), 11K/ 0BB.
Now, remember when Erasmo used to throw 88-90 in the late innings (and a lot of times in the early innings)?
According to Lonnie he was at a steady 93-94 in the 8th inning.
Erasmo has been hit a lot this year, but he's learning as he goes...and his arsenal is changing.  He is pulling a Pineda as a 5'10 control pitcher instead of a 6'10 one.
His last start before that was bad, with a handful of ER and low Ks - he's in flux and experiencing growing pains as he adjusts his game to having a couple more feet on the cheese than he had before, and he tries to see when to throw it by people, since his game was never throwing it by people before.
Unlike Pineda, Erasmo is not all over the zone (or wasn't when I saw him).  It goes where he throws it, so he's not an effectively-wild sort.
Knowing where to place the FB, how to maintain his control outing to outing, where to make mistakes...that's definitely gonna be part of his learning process.
But I like that Z brought him up as a Spring Training dark horse and the Mariners are keeping a sharp eye on him.
Beavan's never struck out 11 high-minors hitters in a game, and how much better would Beavan look with a couple more Ks to go with that control?
They both have the same weakness of staying in the zone TOO much, but given that shortcoming I like the chances of the guy with extra velo to get time to figure out how to execute his pitches and strategy.
Olivo's most important job on the 2012 Mariners is making big-leaguers out of Paxton, Hultzen, Erasmo...whomever is given the opportunity.  Teaching them to be major league pitchers will reap HUGE rewards.
~G

Hultzen, Paxton, Pineda, Beavan and Ramirez are all about 14 years old.  Felix AND Furbush are relative greybeards at the advanced age of 25.  Vargas is a dang dinosaur at 28. 
Fun stuff.

Is starting with a few wobbly steps.  0-for-7 with 4 Ks in his first 2 games back on the field in a rehab assignment at rookie-level Peoria.
To refresh: he got hit in the face with a bat, suffered a concussion, got food poisoning while recovering, and then got mono while recovering from that.  A no good, very bad month.
 

at the beginning of the year, the ONLY thing i wanted was for some of the bats to break out in the  minors so we wouldn't have to see more of Figgins/Wilson?Bradley?etc.  I would have taken a year where none of our minor league pitchers made any advancements in exchange for some of the bats turning into serious pieces for the future, and what ended up happening?  the opposite!
Except that it isn't the opposite, because while no bat absolutely blew up (excluding Ackley), there were some steps forward (thinking of the Cat and perhaps Liddi)...but the pitching went absolutely bananas.
I think my biggest mistake was thinking that we didn't need pitching as much as we need hitting...but i was overlooking that some of these guys could be traded for the hitting we don't have.  i don't follow the minors for teams other than the M's for the most part, but i have to believe there is a club somewhere that has a ML ready catcher or 3B that they would love to give us for one of the guys who took a huge step forward.  Olivo sure would look better as a mentor who steps in and catches for 75 games than what he is now.
I like Beaven, but it is looking increasingly like he could be a long reliever next year.  i can't see him winning a competition against Paxton or Hultzen.  Maybe Beaven could rediscover his 95MPH stuff pitching 3-4 innings at a time?
Finally...since when does Hultzen throw 96?  watching during the CWS is was 91-93.  is there something that the M's have seen that they can change in his delivery to bring him to 96?  i was confused when Z said that.

I expect Nick's road back to take longer than 2012.  I love Z giving him a shout-out in the interview - "hey buddy, we haven't forgotten aboutcha" - but I don't see him realistically having a shot in April to make the team.
His short-comings against LHP are still blatantly obvious and his aborted half-season cut down on his reps to get it fixed.  His D was better, his eye was improved, but he needs a little seasoning before his big-league shot. We've done a good job of not rushing guys past their ability to handle, so I'm hopeful we can hold Nick back a few more months and give him the time to finish getting his game ready for the bigs.
~G

It's interesting:  the Mariners were never as giddy over Michael Pineda as they have been over James Paxton.  At this point it's a tough question, what Clayton Kershaw has, that James Paxton doesn't.

Pineda - and Erasmo Ramirez for that matter - are smiling, laid back guys who enjoy the thrill of competition and in Pineda's case especially was not really challenged to back off from his game.
It wasn't a sure thing as he came up whether Pineda's competitive fire burned bright or if he just had so much talent it didn't matter.  Paxton's competitive fire has never been questioned.
I think it's easier to see that fire in the Randy Johnsons of the world, or even the Jamie Moyers, than in the Pinedas.  Nobody who has that much fun doing what he does can be that serious about it, right?
My man Satchel Paige would beg to differ, but I think that plays a part in expectations.
Pineda is setting the bar REALLY high for the rookies next year, but I'll bet Paxton has Michaels Ks, hits, ERA, etc circled on his wall as the mark to beat.  Or Felix's.  If you listen to Paxton talk he's very honest about what he's working on...and at the same time totally confident that it's HIS game that needs the tweaks.  The hitters aren't doing anything right, he's doing stuff wrong. 
Once he does stuff right, therefore, he'll be perfect.
And he basically has been for the last month. 
~G

John Sickels, yesterday:
Paxton threw 94-98 MPH in college, but dipped down into the 88-92 range in his brief independent ball tenure last year. He has his velocity back now, working consistently in the mid-90s with movement. His breaking pitch was spotty in indy ball but is reportedly excellent this year, giving him two plus pitches. He has a straight changeup which doesn't draw strong reviews, but he'll change speeds with his breaking ball, which sometimes looks like a hard slider and other times more of a traditional curve. It's been effective either way this year.
Command is the key for Paxton. His walk rate was rather high at Clinton, but his stuff was so good he thrived anyway. His command has been excellent in his recent run of starts and the results are obvious. He didn't walk a lot of guys in college, but his command within the strike zone was inconsistent, and scouts felt he was hit harder than he should have been given the quality of his fastball and breaking ball. Note that Kentucky plays in a high-offense context, and his K/IP and K/BB ratios for the Wildcats were more indicative of his potential than the elevated ERA. In pro ball, the results have matched the potential.
There have been a few rumbles that Paxton could be promoted for September, but it seems more likely that he'll be a candidate for 2012.  He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and profiles as a number two starter if he continues to progress with his command.

And later:

Season ends today

would you give him a B+ grade?

by BryceHarper on Aug 15, 2011 9:35 AM EDT reply actions  
 

yes
 by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2011 11:41 AM EDT

Now, John has a weird grading system where he gives out basically no A grades.
Last year he gave 6 A and 5 A- grades for pitchers.  He gave 22 B+ grades.
Hitters and pitchers combined, it was 11 A, 11 A-, and 36 B+ grades.  If Paxton's a B+ then he's a top 50, perhaps even top 25 prospect in Sickels' estimation.  A B+ is high praise from him.
And Paxton is not actually the best pitching prospect in the Southern League.  That would be the incredible, stupendous, stupefying Matt Moore, I would assume.  Matt's gonna get one of those A or A- grades.  Pineda got a flat A last year, and Ackley an A-.  He was right on both to have them in the top 22 prospects in the country.
If Paxton keeps his control as we wind the season down, I wouldn't be surprised to see him upgraded to the same stratosphere.  He's really been remarkable.  But either way, Paxton is making believers out of everyone, the most crucial of which is the dude with the big smile on his face, Jack Zduriencik.
~G

Paxton was 88-92 in the Indy Leagues, which is why he fell to the 4th round.  The Mariners got him back to 94-96 in short order.  Maybe that was just rust, or mechanical.  Maybe not.
Erasmo was throwing 89-91, now he's 91-94.
Carraway apparently has found a couple MPH, and as a starter not a reliever.  Beavan's been up a little too. 
Campos is throwing 96+, so is Walker, both as teenagers, and both harder than they've thrown before...
If I didn't know better, I'd think the minor league ultra-double-secret-probationary training program of Dr. Elliott's was paying dividends.
We're going to develop so many great athletes out of your system,'' Elliott said of the Mariners. "I guarantee it."

They may not believe he fatigued, they may just think "all the guys we get with good mechanics can get another 2-3 mph out of their stuff once we put em in The Program and get their rotational strength up."  Same reason we're drafting an absolute ton of baseball rats who are playing glove positions: if you can turn guys who love the game and understand the game into guys who have the physical talents to excel at the game, your coffers will be overflowing with useful talent.
All things considered, I'd rather find a way to make a baseball player into an athlete (or at least increase his athletic prowess at baseball skills) than try to take a 5-tooler and make him into a baseball player.  This is two years now where everybody we're drafting loves baseball, has a high baseball IQ, and just doesn't QUITE have the physical tools yet to take advantage.
I don't think that's a coincidence.  Arming control pitchers with 55-rated fastballs instead of 45 makes a difference.  Taking glove position power to 55 from 45 makes an impact.  If we can do that - and please examine the year that Catricala has had, or that Franklin had last year, guys who are not "supposed" to have power and yet somehow do - then the world is our oyster for several years to co, because what I said about correctly training baseball players to be sport-specific athletes remains true, IMO: it's the next Moneyball avenue of finding undervalued commodies and maximizing their value.
Yes, Zduriencik has had a HUGE impact on our minor leagues with the guys he's selecting...but isn't it curious how many prospects are "surprising" us and exceeding their supposed talent level?
I hope to have a more detailed post coming on that, at Mariner Central, if I can get some details that I'm looking for.  Just an interesting idea, IMO.  We got a 3 year head start by making Elliott's contract exclusive and being the only ML club able to use his services.  The third year is next year.  If Miller starts clubbing and Proscia finds the power that I doubt he has and Cohoes comes in and rakes...
It won't be surprising to me any more.  It'll be the expected outcome of having this workout program with a minor league farm system designed to locate players best able to exploit that program to its utmost.
~G

I'm so used to seeing 5 % chance at an average player that seeing all this stacked cord-wood piled in front of the Fireplace of Greatness is disconcerting.
Before I was freezing to death trying to get tinder to spark, now there's a roaring flame and plenty of fuel.
Could be skewing my perspective. ;)
~G

a lot better than mine, G-man, which is that someone located and dusted off Jamie Moyer's French made radar gun (the one that measures in kilometers).