Seattle Sports Insider

Think Tank - Trayvon's Weight and Wait rearguard action

Posted by

8/23/11

.................

SANDY But, I'm much higher on Trayvon becoming a 120 OPS+ guy (a couple of years down the line, perhaps).

For me, Trayvon's AB's have been a jarring case of cognitive dissonance.

COG*NI*TIVE DIS*SO*NANCE

An emotional state set up when two simultaneously held attitudes or cognitions are inconsistent or when there is a conflict between belief and overt behavior. Cognitive dissonance occurs when evidence shows that our assumptions have been wrong.

This kid was supposed to be a 200-strikeout air conditioner. Since the day he's come up, he's done nothing but wait 9,000 seconds on each pitch and then lace sizzling liners to the opposite field. Would you beLIEVE this LH hit chart!

And the above doesn't capture Trayvon's six (6) hits on Tuesday.

You want to talk bat speed, here is the dictionary definition. Trayvon looks and looks and LOOKS, and then whooooom he lets that bat go, snicks the ball out of the catcher's mitt, and the ball whistles out to LF in a real big hurry.

Trayvon's got 80 bat speed in terms of launch, and if you're talking throughspeed, that's answered by the 26 minors homers and the 440-foot shots.

What we're seeing in the batter's box is a complete contradiction to the idea of 200 strikeouts. Can you name one ML hitter who strikes out a lot, and who takes the ball the other way?

The only reconciliation I can offer is that Trayvon was indeed choosing to strike out and hit HR's in AAA, and that now he's simply choosing to wait on the pitch, keep his weight back, and to line the ball the other way.

Even Taro, who argued anti-Trayvon relentlessly, has begun to relent.

I'm higher on him than I was before... that said, Trayvon's CF defense could be good enough that you only need an 80-90 OPS+ from him to get averagish production from the position. In that sense, I'm higher on him than before although he too still seems more likely to fit as a part-timer.

Good call champ. Trayvon's making his splash by hitting fastballs. (The 63% fastball rate is about average, but Taro's broad point stands.)

By the way, the 2011 SSI Roto Smackdown is experiencing the single most amazing fantasy baseball accomplishment I've ever witnessed (and that's in a roto career 15 years old). Taro is a perfect 19-0-0, seven games ahead of the #3 team in the league, and leading the #2 points team by 5,030 to 4,090.

As Andre Agassi once said after getting detonated by Pete Sampras, "I'd play him tomorrow for a hundred bucks." But Taro's season is vunderbar. What's he got, four weeks left to a perfect record and eternal unsurpassability?

***

In the doubleheader, Trayvon had two (2) hits in the opener and FOUR (4) more hits in the second game. I saw three of them: they were all LH vs RHP, and all were smoked the opposite way, to LF...

Robinson now stands at .321/.357/.528 after 50-odd plate appearances.

He appears to be learning from one week to the next: in his last 8 games, his EYE has bounced up to 2:7, and he is 13-for-30 over that span with a bunch of doubles. His K's are easily within limits, if you are talking about 550 AB's in 2012.

***

Two weeks ago, SSI allowed for the possibility that Trayvon had been striking out in AAA in part because of his own choice.

15 games on, SSI allows for the probability of same. I mean it in the best possible way: if Trayvon were from Asia ;- ) he'd probably be getting credit for massive baseball intelligence. His adjustment to the next level of pitching has been fun to watch.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

Patience is a virtue

2+ weeks ago I posted this:
Submitted by moethedog on8/07/11 9:10am

I'm becoming more positive that his minor league K's are due to his terrific patience and his willingness to wait until the last moment to commit.
That is no huge fault. He's something pretty cool.

Well, double ditto, today. Doc, do you have a chart that shows the pitch location of each of those hits? In this limited go-round, he's swinging at only 32% of o-zone stuff and 70% of zone stuff. He's no Peguerro-like hacker. He's stalking pitches. His zone contact is 82%. He waits and keeps the weight back, get a pitch he likes and then flicks a frozen rope into the gap.
[Man]. The guy has 8 doubles in 15 games. We had a discussion whether his Albuquerque tater numbers were elevation-aided. I pointed out that his huge homer to double gap indicated it was. We're seeing that be established. But hey, there is more to power than over-the-fence type. If you wear out the gaps and can fly around 1st base you can get to 40 doubles pretty consistently. I can see Trayvon as a 35 or 40 and 15 guy, next year. Does he make a Granderson-type evolution after that? Don't know. But he doesn't have to to be a player.
Wells and Robinson make for an interesting discussion about what to do with Guti. A 2013 OF of Trayvon-Guti-Casper would be tremendous defensively. Ichiro makes that a moot argument for '12.
So, do you hang onto Guti and then have 5 guys who split the PA's for 4 positions in '12, (Trayvon, Guti, Casper, Carp and Smoak) or do you peddle Guti. A Guti/League package would be pretty marketable.
I'm a seller, in the Guti department, but not as much as I once was. Guti's recent single barrage hasn't had much to do with it. He was always going to improve on his historically bad 1st half. But (assuming no injuries to the other guys), the idea of Guti as the 4th OF getting 80 starts (or so) is pretty interesting.
Guti as our own Merv Rettenmund (well, with a bit less bat)....What do you think, Doc?
Or you move Guti, and make Saunders or Peguerro as that guy.
Would depend on the Guti return, wouldn't it.
But I'm all in on Casper and Trayvon in CF and LF next year.
moe

oops

Forgot to include this above.
I know this came up before. Forget who mentioned it. But, more and more, from the left side Robinson reminds me of George Brett at the plate.
Now, don't go all ranting-spitting-snot flying on me. I'm not talking about career upside or anything near it. (BTW, did you know that Brett never hit .300 in the minors...amazing, huh?)
I mean that Trayvon appears to have been tutored by a Charlie Lau disciple. Weight WAY back, then wait.....wait.....wait.....uncoil/explode
A great recipe, that.
moe

Noodle arm, great head

Watching him 5-hop throws from LF to 3B is disconcerting - and eerily reminiscent of Randy Winn - but almost every other aspect of his game is prime. He IS watching, and learning. His Ks are too high, but several of them have been check swings where he knows it's not a strike but figured it out just a TOUCH too late. He's a student of the game, and I love to see that. Somebody teach him how to throw a baseball and we'll be all good.
Swinging that long lever means he needs to start it earlier to get the bat-head around, especially on inside stuff. It's one reason he wears out the fastball on the outer half, IMO - the bat-head is at prime speed out there. He drives the ball the other way exceedingly well. I'm curious to see if he's gonna be a Joe Mauer type with respect to power: far more oppo than pull.
He can turn on an inside FB if he knows it's coming, but so far seems content to take what is given and hammer it around the park. Once opposing pitchers decide to do nothing but hammer him inside I'm interested to see if he can start in with the pull power or if he'll have a Peguero-like deficiency in that area.
But right now, just watching him play, I don't think he has that many holes at the plate. He might be TOO patient, as you said, but that's almost self-correcting, and nothing at the big-league level seems too much for him.
Would I take 550 at-bats from Trayvon with 170 Ks, 60 walks, 35 2B and 15 HRs? Yes, yes I would. Could he do that?
It looks like it so far. He really is a fascinating kid. And that would be a B.J. Upton line, btw, though I'd expect a bit higher BA since BJ is right-handed and Trayvon will be taking 70% of his ABs from the left side.
Would I take minimum-wage BJ Upton to assuage the pain of Franklin Gutierrez's mystery condition? I would indeed, especially as Guti's career line is 120 K / 40 walks, .255/.310/.385 with 26 2Bs and 13 HRs.
For me, Trayvon is making a very interesting push to play CF in 2012.

~G

Tray - Bien!!!

Why I'm more intrigued by Trayvon than Casper ...
Here are his year-by-year minor league patience and ISO numbers:
Age - pat. - ISO - Level
17 --- 53 -- 166 - rk
18 --- 83 -- 122 - rk-A+
19 --- 61 -- 58 -- A
20 --- 51 -- 109 - A+
21 --- 73 -- 193 - A+ - AA
22 --- 104 - 138 - AA
23 --- 85 -- 263 - AAA
His final two seasons in the minors, his XBH splits were:
23 - 5 - 9
9 -- 6 - 26
Trayvon has a history that is all over the statistical highway. At age 22, looks like he tried to become a prototype leadoff hitter, (the guy has 150 SBs in the minors and 47 in 2009). Then, this year, he's Ryan Howard.
Trayvon has *already* gotten better at multiple levels with his best performance at AAA. He's already proven adaptability. Casper's profile is pretty flat, with his best minor league numbers in AA.
I get the sense that Trayvon is "Halman" level talent that finally "got it".

correct me if I'm wrong...

...but isn't an O-SW% of 32 much higher than league average? I mean people used to make fun of Vlad Guerrero for swinging at 42% of pitches outside the zone and we were concerned when Gutierrez' O-SW% increased to 28%.
Yet, visually, he does appear to be very calmly patient up there. Which goes counter to the O-Swing.
I'm not sure I would call Trayvon a pitch stalker yet...but I would say he can wait on his pitch more than most because he has lightning quick hands. I think the resolution to this confusion for me is that he is patient physically, but not mentally. He can wait on a pitch even if he intends to swing...but he intends to swing more often than he should. That is just my take on it.

This

I'm not sure I would call Trayvon a pitch stalker yet...but I would say he can wait on his pitch more than most because he has lightning quick hands. I think the resolution to this confusion for me is that he is patient physically, but not mentally. He can wait on a pitch even if he intends to swing...but he intends to swing more often than he should. That is just my take on it.

Once he gets rid of those, "I'm planning to swing before the pitch is thrown" moments and trusts his eyes and reactions I think he'll get better.
~G

Agreed, G

I've seen Travyon blow a lot of good hitters counts by deciding to swing on 3-1 before he sees the pitch. The walk rate should go up and the K rate should go down the instant he stops deciding what to do before he sees the ball...he's got special batspeed and opposite field coverage...when he learns to use that, he'll be fine.

Trayvon hot zones

This chart rat cheer pretty well captures it.
His overall coverage is pretty good ... he's doing well on stuff away from him ... less well trying to inside-out it, but nothing tragic... coldest zone for me, is swinging over offspeed stuff dropping down out of the zone.
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(BTW amigos, SSI has a strict G-rated language policy. Thanky kindly.)

Spot. On. Moe.

v-e-r-y impressed by your vision on this 'un.
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Am proceeding under the assumption that Gutierrez is still going to be an albatross for 2012 and 2013 .... if you like Trayvon (and obviously they do!) then you're doing well to shed him at 50c on the salary dollar. If you can send $5-6M with Guti for a grade D prospect you certainly do that, IMHO.
Assuming the M's have to keep Guti, that's a $64,000 question - will they pay $5.5 and $7.0M in order to have a classy defensive 4th outfielder. Hope so, but it's probably a pipe dream.

Exactly - the long handle trades inside cvg for outside

Swinging that long lever means he needs to start it earlier to get the bat-head around, especially on inside stuff. It's one reason he wears out the fastball on the outer half, IMO

As the hot zone chart confirms. ::50 cpoints::
Am pleased by his ability to fight off jam pitches for bloop singles, but longterm this is a question to watch... whether he can punish the inside pitch when he looks inside, at least...

Trayvon definitely fishing at offspeed dropping down out of zone

Good catch...
If your Q is not merely rhetorical, then on Fangraphs' plate discipline section, you can compare to league average by clicking "Show Averages" ...
32.0 swings by Trayvon out of zone, 30.4 league average, so that's actually very disciplined for a rook...
However, he fishes at the same thing all the time. He lets high pitches go, tries to make the pitcher get the ball down, and when it's too far down he'll still bite...
***
Cannot expect miracles from a kid who is in the majors 1-2 years too early...

Thanks for the props Doc, but

Thanks for the props Doc, but I may still lose in the playoffs so I don't want to get overconfident.. I've had 1 or 2 loss regular seasons a few times before only to lose in the playoffs in two of those seasons. The head-to-head format makes it anyone's game in eliminations.
As for Trayvon, I'm higher on the defense and still very skeptical about the bat. Hes sitting dead-red and getting fed a high 64.4 FB% (league average a little under 58%), running a .450 BABIP, and terrible run values on any offspeed.
Trayvon likes the fastball middle-out and seems to be waiting on it and hitting it up the middle. The bad part is hes whiffing at anything offspeed despite hitting-up-the-middle (which should technically give him more time to react) and doesn't seem to have good pitch recognition or patience yet.
This approach adds to reaction time because the perceptive speed of the fastball away is considerably slower than that of the inside or high fastball and by hitting middle-out he is adding an extra split-second to further react. Despite the added waiting time with this approach hecan't seem to recognize offspeed or avoid hitting balls. The league will adjust throwing hard in and offspeed away.

Handedness

Trayvon likes the fastball middle-out and seems to be waiting on it and hitting it up the middle. The bad part is hes whiffing at anything offspeed despite hitting-up-the-middle (which should technically give him more time to react) and doesn't seem to have good pitch recognition or patience yet.
This approach adds to reaction time because the perceptive speed of the fastball away is considerably slower than that of the inside or high fastball and by hitting middle-out he is adding an extra split-second to further react. Despite the added waiting time with this approach hecan't seem to recognize offspeed or avoid hitting balls. The league will adjust throwing hard in and offspeed away.

I agree they're going to approach him LH this way (and that I would), but I'm not really sure how he'll respond yet. He's not an oppo guy as a RH batter, as far as I can tell. When I've seen him RH (minors and bigs) he's a pull RH hitter and an oppo LH hitter. I wonder if he's left-eye dominant to a large degree so he has to wait longer as a lefty since in that stance his right-eye has to carry the load.
If he is, then the proper attack plan may be to throw outside to him as a righty and inside as a lefty. If he's NOT...then it's just a matter of approach, and there's already evidence from his RH stroke that he's capable of pulling a ball even with that long stick and his swing the way it is.
Most young players struggle hitting off-speed. I'm willing to watch him work through the process and see if he can come out the other side as a plus hitter.
~G

Where's the love?

I first began following M's baseball while living in Seattle quite a few years ago (the Arod, Griffey, Martinez, Johnson years). I hated the Kingdome, but loved the team. I've moved on geographically, but my affection for the team has not waned.
I have followed them from afar, enjoying the M's, in part, through the blogosphere. Some blogs are more enjoyable than others, but each one contributes to my enjoyment of the team in its own way. My favorite, by a long shot, is SSI.
Occasionally I would connect to the Seattle Sports Insider via a link on the "Bleeding Blue and Teal" site. I noticed recently that the link has been removed. I have also noticed that most, if not all, of the other M's blogs have never provided a link to SSI. I find this curious.
Where's the love for SSI? I really don't get it. I am not trying to make trouble. I'm just curious.

Excellent Question

I really love the way this site has "flown under the radar" but it won't last because it's too good. I think part of it may be because this site throws off more light than heat. You don't get breaking news here, nor is there a game thread. Just good, solid analysis that's respectful and well written. Geoff Baker recently referred readers to this site, and a huge spike followed. I imagine the overall daily visit number averages have risen as a result, but I wouldn't know. Would love to see the figures.

Thanks Jellison, Rick

We get 2,000 - 4,000 a day or so, not bad a'tall for a dedicated Mariners site that does not have the SBNation networking or anything similar. We may be fairly max'ed out as far as cyber-M's-fans word of mouth goes, I dunno.
The Dr. D shtick has always put major-outlet personalities a bit on edge.
For 5-10 years, even some critical DOV/SSI articles (such as Dr. Naka's English translations of Ichiro's interviews) have met with a rather obvious determination to ignore... the Seattle P-I studiously avoided mentioning DOV at all times, right up until the day they swiped Dr. N's stuff for a page A-1 article in the newspaper. ::chuckles::
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I give 70% of the credit for this "pretend SSI doesn't exist" shtick to --- > good old-fashioned competitiveness. Few baseball writers are willing to swap ideas and compete mano-a-mano .... very possibly it's the volume of typing, not so much the logic, that is daunting :- )
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Also give 30% of the credit to personal issues, such my occasionally failing to show the proper deference to Favored Authors.
Also, I come from the other side of the political spectrum from most radio, TV and blogger folks.
Personally, I never underestimate that last factor, when it comes to radio and TV personalities. One amusing example, Tim Roth very nearly quit Planet of the Apes (2001) rather than walk into the same room as "that monster" Charlton Heston. Roth put on rubber gloves so that he "wouldn't be infected" by a person who exercised free speech on behalf of the Second Amendment :- )
Few journalists are as extreme as Tim Roth, but in the big picture, American politics certainly are a factor as to why SSI is not part of the clique. Sadly, political correctness wishes to dismiss, trivialize, and suppress alternative views, not to debate them.
One reason I so much admire Geoff Baker, for broaching the touchy subject of date rape and then, seeing an opposing view, coming on this site and calmly debating the topic... using strong ideas, rather than with scorn. In my humble opinion, if the Seattle blog-o-sphere were dominated by free thinkers like Baker, then SSI wouldn't have the "love" problemo you bring up ...
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Few of the MC and SSI commenters are on the same sheet of political music as Dr. D is, but people who post here are automatically "tolerant" -- folks who can get along with people who are actually different from themselves.
In my opinion, this natural filter is what leads to the consistently civil debates and exchanges of ideas. Even when it comes to the Josh Leuke type discussions.
From some blogs' points of view, SSI might be the the Randy Quaid cousin at the party with a plate in his head. But from my point of view, it's not me who isn't in on the joke. :- )
Cheers,
Jeff

Politics and Baseball

It would be very troubling to me if folks avoided the site because of your politics, Jeff. I hope that isn't the case.
It would be especially interesting because I find your baseball views to be quite liberal in that you are usually "Open to new behavior or opinions and willing to discard traditional values."