August 2009
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/09
4 Comments
DaddyO links us to a fun GKG interview.
I/O: You hear the things about certain people in the locker room - that wasn't going to happen because I think you know I'm a firm believer in everyone deserves to be in this locker room.
Because one person does something different, it doesn't mean you get all over that person. If you do your job perfectly, then you can have a reason, but ain't nobody perfect. So to say that one person divided a locker room, that's your fault.
Crunch: In 2006-08, the M's obviously had a dysfunctional locker room, with Ichiro being the fall guy. Junior came in,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/09
8 Comments
Austin Bibens-Dirkx' mom wrote in at Detect-O-Vision on Aug. 25th. The Cubbies have made him a starter and he's rocking to the tune of a 41:7 control ratio in 58 IP.
AB-D was smokin' along in the M's org with a 90+ sidearm pitch -- almost unheard of to generate that power from that angle -- and then he was derailed by a project to raise his center of gravity (to get more action on his pitches).
He immediately got injured, but since he's healthy and pitching very well right now, we assume the Cubbies let him get back to his natural Gimli-esque release point.
.
=== Chicks Dig the Long... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/29/09
5 Comments
Love the kid, like the potential ... hate watching him pitch right now. :: big smile Ian ::
.
=== Inning 1 ===
Jumped out to an 0-2 count on one of the lefties, David DeJesus, who has been the bane of his existence. On the 0-2 count, Rob Johnson put down the signal for fastball and flashed the upper pocket of his mitt up above DeJesus' hands.
Dr. D's eyes got wide. Hey, Robby knows what to read, don't he! Kidding kidding.
Johnson dropped the mitt, settled into his crouch and then .... opened the mitt up to set a bright target, stomach-high. Calling for the ladder pitch!
Snell reached... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 08/28/09
2 Comments
Spectator here:
Z sez: Arizona Fall League is like a AA all-star league. So it's the perfect landing spot for:
The professional debut of The Talented Mr. Ackley
Z sez: all 3 OF spots and 1b (implied: no 2b project) -- "what we want him to get is at-bats." Stephen Strasburg will be there, too, BTW.
The return from crutches of the once-and-future Carlos Triunfel
Z sez: "the big thing is playing time" (he is listed as "infielder")
A brighter spotlight for Phillippe Aumont and Josh Fields
Z sez re Aumont: "He's in the bullpen because of what we think he's going to be. We even went back to when... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/09
Q. How did Doogie get his strikeouts?
A. He had a 5/1 control ratio on Thursday night, which makes it 13/2 over the last three starts, 19 innings.
That's 6+ strikeouts with the 0+ walks. Short term. But there you go: three ML games with the PCL stats. Now y'know what it looked like.
............
1. LH DeJesus went to 1-2 on three fastballs, and then Fister blew him away with a sick curve that dove into the dirt.
.............
2. LH Maier went to 2-2 on four fastballs, and then took a Catfish Hunter FB right on the black for a called strike three. (The pitchtracker was wrong on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/09
7 Comments
Early on here, the keys-to-the-game have been: Will he get the foot back on the fastball ... will he throw with plus command ... is the offspeed game for real ... can he execute his game consistently.
.
5 ER: How did he lose?
A: The way he'll always lose, I imagine ... he made two mistakes that were crushed for home runs. (The third home run was about 328 feet, just inside the foul poul just over the fence, and I'm thinking that Gutierrez would have had to come IN on it if it were hit to center. LOL.)
The two homers were mistakes with a capital M: 87-88 fastballs, letter high, easily... Read More
Posted by Tuner on 08/27/09
13 Comments
Do you ever wonder why you do what you do?
I follow the M’s religiously throughout the season, and in the off-times too. I find myself reading the blogosphere searching for just one more tidbit that could shed a bit of light on the future — that gives a bit of today-hope for team betterment. I have friends that do the same and text any piece of knowledge they deem relevant to our fansanity. I do this every day, rain or shine, busy or not — and I have to ask myself why? Why is Seattle baseball so compelling to me, and perhaps to you?
It could be because the greatest game lends itself to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/09
5 Comments
To lessen the risk of (further) alienating Da Champ ;- ) we'll emphasize what we liked here...
.
=== Pitch Mix ===
French threw a really baffling 30/30/30 mix of fastballs, curves and changeups. He changed locations with them too.
I watched the game from the A's point of view -- as though rooting for the A's -- and tried to predict the pitches. Verrrrry tough. Here would be a high-away fastaball, and next a breaking pitch that broke just a bit too far inside to hit, and here's a change four inches outside...
Not taking anything away from Luke French, I'm starting to wonder if Rob Johnson... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/09
20 Comments
=== Matt's Report ===
SABRMatt noticed*, visually, that Ryan Langerhans seemed very comfortable going out and getting curves and fastballs -- even LH-on-LH curves, like the one he just hit for a GW HR.
He wondered whether Langerhans might therefore be vulnerable to fastballs, seeing as Langerhans isn't a 300/400/550 hitter.
He looked at the "vs power" and "vs finesse" stats, and found that on a prelim basis, they were consistent with his first hypothesis.
.....................
I agree with the comments that "power" pitchers are K pitchers, not 96 mph pitchers as such. But! High K/9's do... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/25/09
2 Comments
=== INNING 1 ===
In the first inning, Rowland-Smith came out firing brisk 90-91 fastballs, well located in the strike zone.
...........
Adam Kennedy hit a solid fly ball, caught by Michael "Blackout" Saunders.
............
Rajai Davis popped up on another FB -- Rowland-Smith came out throwing FB after FB, strike after strike. Too many strikes, in fact.
"Too many strikes"? Sure. If they knew for a fact that you were going to throw a strike? Suppose you threw 100% strikes? ... it would be in effect a 3-1 pitch situation.
You've got to make them fish, keep them guessing. You can't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/25/09
11 Comments
=== The Muscle ===
Hit his shortest, and most impressive, home run of the 2009 season.
In the second inning, lefthander Anderson threw his hottest fastball of the night. The ball was:
1. Just under the letters, hard to get on top of even if 90 mph.
2. 96 mph.
3. In on the hands.
4. On a two-strike count.
5. Coming from a LH angle.
Branyan, not loading the way he usually does, snapped the bat around at snake-tongue speed and laser'ed a line drive into the right field bleachers.
370 feet, maybe. And a homer that showed us he has an X (launch quickness) to go with his Y (throughspeed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/25/09
Prediction: 5-11, 11-5, or anything in between.
In one corner, a vicious age-down trend. In the other, Hasselbeck's and Mora's mammoth resources. It'll be a whale of a contest.
.
=== The Good ===
You're talking about a team with a lot of talent. They averaged what, about 11 wins a year for a loooong time until last year's lame-duck disgrace. That 11-win talent has reloaded, including with the draft's impact player, Curry, and a legit go-to star wideout.
...................
NFL fans know that there are big-play, unreliable receivers, such as Joey Galloway and Darrell Jackson, and then... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/25/09
20 Comments
I believe I have a beat on Ryan Langerhans' fatal flaw, illustrated beautifully on his second walk off home run of the year (ironically, perhaps). :)
When pitchers learn never to throw a breaking ball for a strike to Langerhans, he will never hit another game winner - or something like that. He gets beat time and time again by power pitchers, as illustrated by his split in this department found at b-ref:
POWER PITCHERS: .212/.656
FINESSE PITCHERS: .271/.770
Why is this true? It's the slider-speed bat, silly! Here in close up is Langerhans' very Ibanez'esque (and that's a compliment,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/25/09
5 Comments
Q. I don't get it. How could he be missing more bats in the majors than in the minors?
A. Some guys do. This week Jeff Sullivan counted them up, and found about 1/8 of them do, in the pool he looked at. It' s not impossible.
The very first thing that Bill Kreuger said, in the postgame after Doogie's first start was, "This looks like a guy who could be better in the majors than in the minors."
D-O-V touted this w/r/t pitchers like Freddy Garcia (AA/AAA) and Tim Lincecum (college). It can happen.
.
Q. But how?
A. Notice that Doogie is not striking out more hitters in the majors. He'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/25/09
5 Comments
Q. Did Fister show extreme talent in his AAA statistics?
A. For some reason, we have been underselling what Fister did at AAA -- run a 7.2 control ratio.
Show me any AAA pitcher, anywhere, who can repeat a 0+ BB rate indefinitely, while fanning 6, 7 batters a game, and I will be extremely interested in him.
Easy for me to say in retrospect. I wasn't waving the pom-poms in June, any more than anybody else. :- )
Though when Doogie got called up, we did manage to get an optimistic "template" POTD up before the nuke went off.
.
Q. Template?
A. Okay, if you insist.
To get a feel for... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/24/09
7 Comments
=== Jose Lopez ===
Swatted a FB over the LF fence. This was a homer hit at will, as it were.
From the moment he loaded, he was going over the fence. A Home Run Derby pitch from the word Go.
It makes me wonder if the day won't arrive, when every time Jose gets his pitch, he's going to simply swat it down the line for four bases.
What a Fenway player he'd be. Epstein has the HR scattercharts, and needs a 3B. Wonder what the offer would be on Felix + Lopez :- )
.
=== Michael Saunders ===
Made THREE "marginal" catches -- one of which would probably, and two of which would certainly,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/24/09
Watched the game out of one eye while getting smashed by my son at Yugioh, haven't checked the eye's impressions against GameDay or Brooks or whatever, so all's yer get is the rhapsody of incoherent checkpoints...
.
Tell you this, though. Never saw a guy with Ian Snell's stuff try to pitch like Tommy John.
.
=== Ian Snell ===
Great linescore, 0 hits thru 4.2, good for him, but I didn't see a 6-inning, 1-run performance. The A's don't have a lot of Teixeiras and ARods in there.
As we mentioned after his first start, the talent does not disappoint -- his talent level and skill set is a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/23/09
5 Comments
=== Walk the Light ===
Jason and his fiancee' are doing a walk for leukemia and lymphoma. Very cool. Why not head over and clink the jar? You even get his very worthwhile premium info as a bonus.
.
=== Seahawks ===
Two books are needed to understand the NFL locker room: Out of Their League by Dave Meggyesy and North Dallas Forty by Peter Gent. (The movie was nothing like the book.) Long story short: a losing NFL locker room is a lot like Cellblock D: dark, dangerous, and not the most harmonious spot in town.
Chemistry is important in baseball, but it's much less important than in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/23/09
5 Comments
=== Fizzlin' - M's Concentration ===
M's missed a couple of easy runs on Saturday -- notably Branyan fanning with a guy on 3B, only 1 out -- and then it went into extras and a loss. Simple execution.
As well, Saunders has a ball go off his mitt -- while he was planted flatfooted, now -- and later in the inning gets in Gutierrez' way for a throw home. 3-3.
..............
Today's ballgame, Langerhans misjudges a slicing fly in the 1st, playing it into a triple and hurting himself ... and in the early innings, the Mariners again fail to plate two (2) manufactured runs.
Griffey's deep bomb... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/23/09
10 Comments
Gutierrez' spot price on the world oil market is volatile :- ) but at the moment, D-O-V pegs him as the second coming of Mike Cameron. Mike is / was a fine player, though perhaps not the "secret superstar" that sabes tout him as.
If Gutierrez is a second Mike Cameron, then he will provide $12-14M of value to the M's over the next several years, while earning chump change. That is, of course, the kind of player you win a pennant with.
..................
As Taro has pointed out, Gutierrez has shown intriguing signs of growth this year. His PX isn't up as such, but his 420-foot blasts... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/09
6 Comments
=== THE BAD ===
Fister's fastball was smooshier than in his first two starts. It had less pace and he did not have his command.
In the first two innings, particularly, Fister rarely hit the mitt and in fact threw a number of balls wildly off target. Check the strike zone plot at Brooksbaseball.net and count up the pitches that missed by 1-2 feet.
Later his command was better, but was never up to his first two starts.
.............
I thought Brooks was going to show an average FB speed of 86, 87 mph or something, though it did show 88, which is not quite as tragic.
I think that's because... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/09
2 Comments
=== Ichiro is 2000-for-6000 ===
Going into Saturday's game, Ichiro was 1988-for-5964 lifetime.
1988/5964 = 1/3. Isn't that something?
It would be a fun game to look at historical players who, after 1000's of AB's, had AVGs or K/BB's or OBP's or whatever that were very simple fractions, like a guy whose OBP was exactly 2/5 or whose SLG was exactly 1/2.
Ichiro gets a base hit one-third of the time. I'm reallllllllly rooting for him to hit 2000-for-6000 exactly :- )
.
=== Dialin' It Up ===
Ichiro has 18 strikeouts vs 4 walks the last 30 days. Yet, he is hitting .381 over that time.
His... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/22/09
8 Comments
Q. Did you predict Chris Jakubauskas to win 15 games?
A. I did not. Thanks for asking.
This is one that bears clarification, because [big smile guys] the shaving-cream pies are getting a little old. The idea is that since we misunderstood Jakubauskas, we're probably misunderstanding Fister.
:: ahem :: :: taps microphone ::
First: we didn't say Jaku would probably succeed. We said that we would move him to the front of the #5-6 line, ahead of Olson, Vargas and the 85 RRS.
We misunderstand lots of guys: Zito, Lopez, Washburn, Gutierrez, the list goes on. Jakubauskas is one of the few... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/21/09
7 Comments
Q. Why have the M's been running an 85 OPS+ at home and 100 OPS+ on the road?
A. The Mariners played through May with five-six very similar RH pull hackers in the lineup:
Lopez, 2b
Betancourt, ss
Beltre, 3b
Johjima, c
Balentien, lf
Gutierrez, cf*
Dave Allen of The Baseball Analysts pointed out in May, that these six hitters as a group hit terribly against RHP two-seam fastballs -- "twice as bad as the average RHB."
In other words, neither Beltre nor Betancourt nor Wlad nor ... etc. could accomplish anything at all against a mediocre, 90-mph, two-seam fastball that rode in on their hands... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/21/09
14 Comments
Q. from Itto in Italy. Why are the M's the AL's 3rd-best road team? Don't you all talk about how the team is built for the park?
A. Hiya Itto!
Right now the Mariners are 30-32 on the road, compared to Boston at 31-33 ... only two teams have strong winning records on the road: NYY +8 and LAA +13.
The M's haven't been great on the road, but they have indeed been .500, and that's a very interesting fact that I hadn't noticed at all.
..............
I agree with Matt's reply to this in the comments: it's the RH batters.
..............
True, we do talk about WANTING to build the team to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/21/09
15 Comments
=== Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx ===
Lopez hit another one out, down the line, and this one he clocked pretty good. As if he'd gotten up and read the blog this morning (I know, I know) and said, well okay, Dr. Dimento.
They said that Lopez came out for batting practice this afternoon and decided to put on a show, hitting a barrage of long balls "wayyyyyyyyy out in the seats to left field."
Which illustrates that Jose Lopez has a lot more natural power than, say, Jack Hannahan or somebody. The kid is 6'2", 200, bigger than Mays or Aaron. As we've opined a time or six, all it would take... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/21/09
25 Comments
=== THE GOOD ===
French's changeup was working, for this one game anyway, as effectively as Jamie Moyer's. For the first five innings.
Time and again he drove toward the plate, pulled the string, and the Indians put garbage swings on it. Five of the 6 strikeouts, IIRC, were swinging, at the change.
Several swings-and-misses were at low-away dead fish changeups in the Moyer mold. An early swing-and-miss was at a REALLY good change right down the middle, at the knees. Another one was teed up, but was so good that a Cleveland scrub swung right through it.
The last couple of batters, they... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/21/09
14 Comments
Q. You have to dock Jose Lopez a bit on his OPS+, because it's based on SLG not OBP, right?
A. Right. But.
... for those who haven't caught this point before, OPS and OPS+ do treat OBP and SLG as though they were of equal value.
OBP is in fact more valuable, yet you'll notice that a guy with a 300/380/420 line is considered equal to a guy with a 300/340/460 line. The .380 OBP will get you more runs, other things being equal.
So for guys who don't walk, and/or have low AVG's, you do need to subtract, say, 5% from OPS+ to get the right "eyeball" estimate of offense (in terms of RC/27... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/20/09
5 Comments
Q. The quintessential Bill James question, applied up-and-down a 25-man roster. So, how about Jose? Can you win your next pennant with him?
A. Sure.
He's an average-solid ML regular, worth about $10M a year in free agent terms. He makes $2.5M next year, and $5M the year after (on a slam-dunk club option).
So, in terms of being a Moneyball player? Any young player who is solid, and underpaid, is a nice step towards a pennant.
Especially if he's at a hard-to-fill Yahtzee position, like second base. He prevents hemorrhaging of the Betancourt, Cedeno, and Hannahan varieties.
That's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/20/09
15 Comments
... said Branch Rickey to Joe Garagiola, the week before he traded him. :- )
The man wasn't lyin', right?!
.
Q. Have you given up on Lopez' power?
A. If Jose continued to parallel Carlos Guillen, he would do exactly this:
2009 / 2001 -- Decent hitter (age 25 for both)
2010 / 2002 - Decent hitter
2011 / 2003 - Average-solid hitter, major progress in EYE
2012 / 2004 - Explodes as MVP candidate
In terms of OPS+, Miguel Tejada followed precisely that pattern too -- average-solid hitter through age 27, with the big plateau leap at age 28.
Obviously, it would be naive to write off a blue-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/20/09
17 Comments
=== Hall and Tatis ===
San-man with an outstanding post on Hall, comp'ing him to Fernando Tatis. Here's his baseball card.
One of the things I like the very best about MC/DOV/SSI, is guys pointing out comps, and the 5-degree differences in angles that those comps take. I could do it all day long. :- )
..............
Tatis' little resurrection in 2006, 08, in partial seasons, happens a lot. Just as a loose example, ahem Matty, you could take Scott Speizio's bounce with the Cards. Speizio looked dead, staked through the heart, and ashes scattered in the ocean, but there was actually... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/19/09
=== Yo Adrian ===
Mariners still playing verrrrrrry tough. Detroit is leading the AL Central; they are potentially a wild-card rival; and they had Justin Verlander on the mound, cruising at 98 mph all the way through the game.
The Mariners took Detroit to the mat and won the game. They'd have won Tuesday, also, despite Porcello's lights-out performance -- except for the blown hold.
Give 'em credit. Despite the M*A*S*H team scrambling on and off the theater of battle twice a day, these dudes are going to war.
.
=== Gen'l Patton Dept. ===
On Snell's 2nd-to-last pitch of the night, he went... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/19/09
7 Comments
=== Ichiro ===
Is now 11-for-28 against Justin Verlander. That's .393 against the hardest thrower in the American League. Any respect for Japanese baseball goin' on yet?
The game-winning HR* that Ichiro hit was off a 96 fastball, and it was pulled right into Ichiro's power alley.
We remember when Ichiro came up, naysayers complaining that you could knock the bat out of his hands :- ) ... that Ichiro couldn't hit a good fastball. Justin Verlander would beg to differ.
This is some HOF leadoff man we got here, wouldn'tcha say?
.
=== Ackley and Brett ===
Okay, this is OT. As Jack would... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/19/09
18 Comments
Q. What are his chances to get back to where he was?
A. The very fact that Capt Jack is going after him, is SOME indication that there's a chance to get Hall back to where he was.
Hall's problems aren't bad luck. It's not like his BABIP or HR/F or whatever is going to just revert and boom, you've got a hitter again. Hall is actually hitting bad. He's probably lucky that his BABIP is as high as it is (.270).
Does Zduriencik have the key to unlock Hall's problems, the way that Pat Gillick had the key to Arthur Rhodes' success? Tune in next week.
.
Q. Does D-O-V like Hall's chances?
A... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/19/09
6 Comments
Baseball Intellect has an absolutely gorgeous video of Ackley's swing. You might open two windows while we take a quick look.
=== Necessary, but not Sufficient, Dept. ===
Bear in mind that a great swing does not equal an All-Star major leaguer. You could give me Ted Williams' swing, and I still wouldn't be able to make contact against Miguel Batista.
But Ackley's swing lights up the D-O-V pinball machine for record scores. He's got the stroke for a .300/.400/.500 career. Thusly:
.
=== LOAD ===
Most hitters have a much less compact "load" than Ackley does. For example, Bret Boone... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/19/09
5 Comments
=== HAND LAUNCH ====
On this pitch, the second one in the video, Ackley's hands come through fairly early -- maybe it was a 94 fastball -- but on an offspeed, he'd simply delay the hand launch a tick.
It's a basic principle of golf that you want your hands ahead of the ball. Notice that Ackley's right forearm is wayyyyyyyyy out in front, creating the opportunity for leverage. This is maybe the single most beautiful aspect of Ackley's entire gorgeous swing.
.............
The extreme cock of the bat unsnaps smoothly and with terrific, well, "snap" leverage. Maybe that's why the guy can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/18/09
11 Comments
Not that other letters don't measure up, of course. :- ) MC and DOV discussions are always a pleasure - adult, intelligent, informative. Just a few letters that provoked us this afternoon...
.
=== Lonnie ===
I think that one important thing that may be overlooked is the venues that Fister has plyed his trade at so far in '09. The AL does not have an equivalent to Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Salt Lake, etc.
Pitching at home at the Safe is a little different than pitching at Tacoma, but not a whole lot. Still though, those away games at real launchpads will hurt any... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/18/09
8 Comments
In the NBA, the magic number is three solid bench players, plus a flex man, so 8.5 to make 5 each night.
We asked about 10-to-make 9. Or is that 12-to-make-9? :- )
.............
Numbed by the Hargrove Doctrine that says veterans are entitled to know that they're playing every day ... we asked resident Braves/M's fan Sandy-Raleigh, hey, what's it like in a foreign country?
We haven't followed the Braves much lately, but do remember several years back when they had a boatload of blue chippers (heh) all coming up together. The Braves have had some traffic-jam issues.
So: is it trade one... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/17/09
13 Comments
I/O: Zduriencik says, on Baker's site, that Ackley will probably be an impact player in the major leagues.
"We feel he's a player who's going to bat in the middle of our lineup for years to come.''
And on MLB.com, Capt. Jack sez,
"When we selected Dustin, we knew he was a special player and a special person," Zduriencik said. "We are excited for him to join or organization and can't wait to see him in a Mariners uniform."
.
CRUNCH1: This is an interesting projection that Zduriencik puts on him: that Ackley is more likely than not, to be an impact player in the big leagues.
Capt Jack... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/17/09
6 Comments
Literally, judging by the contract. :- )
................
The comparisons around the nation seem to have settled in on Robin Ventura. That's the .300 - 75 walks - 25 homers template, 125 OPS+ in a neutral park.
Here is an article in which Keith Moreland goes ballistic on Ackley:
"He's as good a hitter as I've ever seen," Moreland said. "He has a beautiful, balanced swing to all fields with power. He reminds me a lot of (Oklahoma State's) Robin Ventura."
"As good a hitter as I've ever seen" is an odd comment from a man who sat in the dugout with, and played with, Pete Rose, Mike Schmidt... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/17/09
=== Sounders, Timbers, Whitecaps and Bears, Oh My ===
Woke up one day and realized that the Portland Timbers, Vancouver Whitecaps and Seattle Sounders were doing battle again. Anybody know if Alan Hudson is getting any PT?
Dave Clark, who used to mod the Mariners at fanhome, runs the biggest and best (AFAIK) Sounders website. I understand they've got the ears of the players and brass there. ;- )
His latest article at SounderAtHeart has a side-by-side video of a superstar, and then a Sounder, executing the same play and getting the opposite treatment from the refs.
The reaction from the... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/17/09
9 Comments
Terms of Ackley's officially inked deal with the Mariners have been released in spits and bits over the last half hour. It appears he will make 9.5 mil smackers, which, compared to all previous Mariner draft picks, sounds like a gigantic number.
We note, however, that his signing bonus is not unreasonable for a #2 pick (6 million signing bonus...the team bedgetted for that by drafting a little light with picks #2 and #3), and that his contract is a five year deal. Which means he's not going to make significantly more than a random international free agent would make if his career got him... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/17/09
8 Comments
San-Flip: I saw the Langerhans ring-up ... and want to say as an unbiased (as much as any person can be unbiased) party -- that was one of the single most egregious blown strike calls I've seen in 40 years of watching baseball on TV.
That said ... here's the difficult reality. As noted by others ... rookies in *ALL* sports do not get credit. Veterans get the calls, rookies get hosed. It's not just in MLB.
The problem in Seattle TODAY is the basic problem squared. Part of what allows rookies to move from getting screwed to being allowed to voice their displeasure is by making it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/09
6 Comments
Article out today pronounces Erik Bedard, dead, referencing this article that declares Bedard-types to have "a 3% chance of becoming Rocky Biddle."
Um, no.
A 3% chance of becoming almost worthless, and a 97% chance of becoming totally worthless. Then what's this? Gil Meche had a badly torn labrum in 2001, among several other serious problems.
The surgery was NOT successful on Meche. He went back, IIRC, 6-8 months later, and had the shoulder re-done. Along with the labrum they repaired at least two other problems, although I forget what they were.
Gil didn't have a 3% chance of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/09
9 Comments
=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
Fister gets upgraded several notches. Buy another several hundred shares.
We remember the young Bill Swift getting on a roll and somebody asking Jim Lefebvre, "If he pitches like this, is he going to be in the rotation?"
Jimmy's reply, "If he pitches like this, he's going to be in the Hall of Fame." Meaning, of course, that Swifty was just red-hot at the time.
.................
With his 87-89 fastball, Fister lives on the edge in Radke / Blanton / Moyer* style, and I went into the game skeptical that he would execute as well as he did vs. the White Sox. (That... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/09
14 Comments
Lonnie, the big cheese at Mariner Central, has some on-the-spot Fister intel here.
.
=== Middle Ground with the Champ ===
Fister gave up so few hard-hit balls because, in this one game, he painted. He painted every bloomin' INCH as well as Jamie Moyer did in his prime.
I began to agree with Taro more, about there not being so much difference between Fister's and French's fastballs, because I did start to get the feeling that if Fister missed with even one, that it was going to be launched.
He was 88-89, touching 90. He definitely did NOT have the swerve that he had last Tuesday. In... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/09
11 Comments
they figure out how to do battle on their own terms.
Matty has an article up on the bag job the M's got from the umps Saturday, and on Wakamatsu's lack of reaction to it. (Here's an article about Wakamatsu's baby-soft treatment of the umpires in his rookie season.)
This one -- the bases-loaded phantom strikeout that decided the game -- was outrageous, and in umpire terms it was a loogie into the M's dugout. Sorry, not wishing to be vulgar, but that's what it was.
...............
It's a tough call here, because Wakamatsu is brainy, respectful and polite, and he obviously has a strategy in... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/15/09
12 Comments
Bases loaded, two outs, bottom for the sixth, must-win game for a team facing nothing but must-win games from here on out. Yankees have been stalled at 4 runs and the Mariners are threatening to make a game of it.
Ryan Langerhans has battled his way to a 3-2 count. David Robertson's pitch comes in and Langerhans reads low...he takes it decisively and takes two long steps from the plate before he hears the emphatic strike three call. The proper response was given by Langerhans. The BS strike calls have been going against the Mariners all day long and Langerhans boils over, slamming the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/09
5 Comments
We mused about Tuiasosopo's 900-point OPS swing when ahead or behind in the count.
We weren't using this little snippet of Tui's travails to argue a case before the Supreme Court. A month of bashing-and-dashing doesn't prove anything, but it did make us chuckle about the Jekyll-and-Hyde act he's throwing up down there.
Hyde was a pretty big dude. We saw the movie.
This elicited the following interesting dissent in the comments:
.
Q. Why does a 1.350 OPS ahead in the count against a .450 OPS behind in the count indicate future stardom?
Taking a look at the numbers, when Tuiasosopo is... Read More
Posted by Silentpadna on 08/15/09
1 Comments
BTW, as a followup on the Bedard issue I posted about last night, here is the text of an email I sent to the host in question - would love to see some dialogue on the air about him in that context, but I'm not holding my breath.
Hi _____ ,
First, I’m gonna let you know that I’ve listened to you off and on for years, including back in your days in _______. You are by far the most knowledgeable host on that station and it isn’t even close – even if you are a Cougar. Now that I’ve buttered you up (and I mean that stuff), can you give us a little break on your irrational hatred of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/09
5 Comments
=== Mark Lowe ===
Has been a championship-level setup man.
21 holds, second in the league. His last 28 days before Friday, he had a 15:3 control ratio, with a .180 AVG, a .226 OBP, and a .280 SLG.
But his one Achilles' Heel is that his slider is a bit susceptible to lefty power, and it bit him again on Friday. Every once in a while -- like one series a month -- the M's really miss their LOOGY.
Vargas looks like he'd be one, but despite the sidearm delivery he's got a reverse platoon split. LH's are over .500 SLG against him.
LOOGY's are a funny thing. I've seen excellent teams win... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/09
13 Comments
=== Andy Pettitte ===
Amusing that, a week after we suggested the RRS-Pettitte comp, here they were book-ending each other in each half of the inning.
Pettitte, the last few weeks, has had a real good cut fastball going. Therefore, he threw fewer curves on Friday -- actually throwing a Jarrod Washburn game, move the FB around the strike zone.
So we didn't see a mirror-image on the mound, exactly; Pettitte was in cutter mode. But still, he and RRS looked similar even on a physical level.
I'm going with the comp. :- )
...................
It was weird, seeing Pettitte agonize over each... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/09
8 Comments
Main Entry: rea·son·able
Pronunciation: \?r?z-n?-b?l, ?r?-z?n-?-b?l\
Function: adjective
Date: 14th century
1 a : being in accordance with reason reasonable theory>
b : not extreme or excessive reasonable requests>
c : moderate, fair reasonable chance> reasonable price>
2 a : having the faculty of reason
b : possessing sound judgment reasonable man>
.................
A high-visibility article, this morning, blames Bill Bavasi for Erik Bedard's injury.
If anything, the treatment of Bavasi is becoming less moderate, less fair, more extreme and more excessive as his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/09
12 Comments
=== Wanting It Too Badly, Dept. ===
It is reasonable to assert that in your judgment, the 2008-09 Mariners should not have been attempting to make the playoffs -- that they needed to begin a rebuild.
It is not reasonable to assert that a $100M-payroll was attempting the impossible, trying to win 90 games.
In point of fact, Jack Zduriencik himself tried to win with the 2009 Mariners. He traded away young talent for Jack Wilson, making $8M.
The 2007 Mariners did not carry a cluster of Darren Dreifort, Albert Belle, and Chan Ho Park contracts into the offseason when they traded for Bedard... Read More
Posted by Silentpadna on 08/14/09
3 Comments
Not us, of course, but the media in general. Listening to the afternoon guy on the local sports station yesterday, a guy I actually like more than all of the other ones, made me want to hurl. After talking about how Bedard was going to have exploratory surgery tomorrow (today), he was surmising that Bedard had likley pitched his last game this season, perhaps for his short M's career; then thanking a deity for it.
First, I'm not sure why we'd be so happy that Bedard wasn't going to pitch.
Second, the implication that he was somehow wimpy flies in the face of the facts we now know.
So... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/09
19 Comments
1. I love Russell Branyan.
................
2. His OPS+ is 132 and dropping. This is his only year of fulltime performance. Except for this year, he's never proven ANYthing about fulltime play.
...................
3. Adam Dunn has 6 years in a row, counting this one, of 40+ homers. He's got a track record.
We are INFERRING that Russell Branyan can hit ML pitching in fulltime play. He has not proven that yet. We are inferring exactly nothing about Adam Dunn's ability to hit ML pitching in fulltime play. He has been doing it since he was 21 years old, posting a 136 OPS+ when he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/13/09
12 Comments
So Dave has been saying, for thirty years, that "the Yankees can put some crooked numbers on you before you blink an eye." A Hall of Fame signature line. Meaning what? (Answer at bottom.)
...................
As most know, Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game and then immediately threw five perfect innings to begin his next game.
What are the odds of a pitcher like Mark Buehrle retiring 45 consecutive hitters? Well, giving him the too-generous assumption that only 30% of all batters get on base against him, the odds against 45-for-45 are still over 1 in 10 million.
The number of plate... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/13/09
13 Comments
Q. What happened out there?
A. In no order of importance, since all of these things converged, to form an unseemly puddle of raspberry jelly on the pitcher's mound:
..............
1. The Yankees came in 20-6 since the break. They are mulching everybody.
This was pro's against Joes on Thursday, with a $180M pitcher ahead 5-0 by the third inning.
Against a $200M+ roster that is as red-hot as this, you need a Felix Hernandez or Erik Bedard out there if you don't want to feel like a bikini'ed coed lost in Jason territory.
A merely-decent pitcher is going to need a double-reinforced cup and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/12/09
7 Comments
At Mariner Central, Joseph pointed out a truly strange quote from Jarrod Washburn:
"I will listen to (Tigers pitching coach) Rick Knapp here, but if I have too many problems, I can definitely see a phone call back to Rick Adair - but, hopefully, that won't be necessary."
.
1. I like Wash.
2. The man has a knack for saying really obnoxious things.
3. He's no dummy. He understands that he was LH in Safeco with three center fielders, and a bunch of coaches who buy into him longer than other people do.
....................
How do you think his new team takes that comment?
Suppose that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/09
32 Comments
Q. How come French's fastball is minus-minus but Fister's is 55? It looks like they throw at pretty much the same speed.
A. French's fastball has NOT been minus-minus in his Seattle games.
Remember that we had French's fastball as minus-minus based on his game in Seattle, and on his 86 FBv after 30 innings, as well as on his terrible run values.
At the time of the trade, French was #101 out of 104 ML starters for fastball velo, or something like that.
...............
Gotta square that away, amigo. You're going to forever link me with saying that French throws "minus-minus" at 88-89, if... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/09
Q. So, no earned runs, but a poor 4:4 control ratio. Another chimera like Vargas' first start?
A. Nope, not at all. Fister showed an interesting Ray Miller game with real good makeup. He's definitely D-O-V's #5 starter with Bedard on the DL.
.
Q. First key to the game: does he get 0+ walks because he gives in on 2-0, or because he has command?
A. Well, he's rarely behind like that. But ...
Tuesday, he didn't give an inch when the ump put him in the hole. An example was Beckham, second batter of the game.
First pitch, 89 fastball nicked the low-away corner ... ump joyfully shows... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/09
14 Comments
Q. What's he throw to lefties?
A. The Sox have good lefties, Podsednik and Thome with Getz in the lineup too, and Fister threw them pretty much the same thing as he did RH's. Located FB's, and overhand slurves. Fister doesn't throw anything that drops into LH wheelhouses.
I have no idea why his splits vs LH should be a problemo, except that his FB runs away from them, which is undesirable. His slurve is a good pitch against them.
Reports of Fister's demise vs LH were probably exaggerated.
.
Q. What's he throw on strike one?
A. He is consistently capable of throwing a strike that is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/09
6 Comments
Q. Okay, your first Key To The Game was, what does he do on 2-0.
A. Right. He hits the black, and/or he changes speeds.
.
Q. Your second Key To The Game was, does he have offspeed stuff. Does he?
A. He does. Definitely.
A. My favorite pitch of his is his #3 pitch, a 70-74 mph change curve that just made Quentin look ridiculous in the 2nd. It is practically a Nishiguchi-class change curve with a gigantic break that drops right in there.
Weirdly, Johjima only called for it five times. I wonder why. Maybe it looked like it was hanging. One *was* swatted foul down the line. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/09
7 Comments
Q. How's his makeup?
A. Just remarkable. He not only stayed quiet and calm, but was visibly *thinking* out there. You literally would not have known he was a rookie.
Even more telling was the way he stayed within his game plan, despite blown calls and despite the nerves. He kept his head about him, and took the right amount of the plate for the circumstances.
The kid's a battler.
.
Q. Who is the template for this toolbox?
A. We would need:
1. Average-mediocre FB thrown with good run and/or location
2. NON-bombshell curve/slider
3. Third pitch at a different speed, perhaps a 4th... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/09
13 Comments
Spec seems incapable of opening his mouth except to provide Zen-like koan for meditation:
+++++ Would Wilson's defense cause them to consider Branyan at third in 2010 (I recall when Beltre went down they said "we don't want to move him in the middle of the season when he's so hot at the plate" or something to that effect; that is, they may view it differently if he had the whole offseason to prepare).
I raise this because of the comment the brass made to USSM that they love Tui but aren't convinced he's an MLB 3b.
Branyan at third opens up both 1b and DH for any FA, trade and/or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/11/09
7 Comments
Whether the M's will in fact consider Branyan at 3B, I dunno. If Matt Tuiasosopo isn't acceptable to them as a 3B, even for a few years, will Russ Branyan be?
Our beloved Capt Jack has had one season as a GM, and has already caused us to wonder whether he is too willing to sacrifice the bottom half of the inning for the top half.
The first-half offense was a painful sight. Chavez in LF, Hannahan at 3B and other decisions have been too extreme towards fielding IMHO.
Granted, those were bridge players, there only until Capt Jack had time to get his guys in there. Saunders, for example, is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/10/09
7 Comments
At Mariner Central, TopCat (who was a third baseman himself IIRC) has a great little post on Jack Wilson's powerful DP turns. C-points.
Jack is the kind of guy who takes about one series to win over all the dyed-in-the-wool hardball purists.
... Jeff Nelson was on the radio postgame tonight, and was asked, as a ballplayer, what are your thoughts on Jack Wilson? And the first thing that occured to him, stream-of-consciousness: you have a lot of confidence in him, just because of the way that he gives you 100% on every play out there.
It didn't occur to them until later that this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/10/09
7 Comments
Once a-gayn, please? :- ) Rowland-Smith's velo separation on Sunday the 9th:
Brooksbaseball.net is bonzer. They have these up SAME NIGHT for ALL pitchers in the bigs. Slap me silly.
At 70 mph, Rowland-Smith's curve not only creates the third "depth" of pitch for batters, but it also cracks at that velocity.
.
=== Boomer: also a Huge, Scary Male Kangaroo ===
This is precisely the sweet spot that Boomer Wells found in his own career: His curve got slower and snapped harder, which is why his K rate was 6.5, 7.0 in the second half of his career (as opposed to 4.8, 5.5 in Toronto).
Boomer... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/09/09
6 Comments
=== He's Baaa---aaaaack! ===
If Ryan Rowland-Smith executes the pitches that he executed against the Rays, he is one of the top 30 starters in the league, now.
aGAIN a tip o' the kelly to you amigos who, before RRS came back up to the bigs, voted him in a landslide to rise to the top during August-September.
.
=== Wotta Hook ===
RRS threw 56 fastballs, 25 curves and 27 changeups/slurves. That is what you call an ace clinic out there, mate.
The change-curve was a fair dinkum David Wells hammer that never gave a bloke a fair go. Honestly don't remember seeing Wells himself throw a curve... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/09/09
10 Comments
Chris Carpenter, to take one example, was injured in 2007-08 and returned in 2009 ready to pitch. Despite being out for two years, he crashed back into the game with an instant 11-3, 2.26 explosion.
Lesson learned? When aces of this caliber are out for a while, they can be good bets -- because they're just flat good pitchers.
It would be one thing, if Jarrod Washburn had shoulder surgery and then you were betting $8M a year on him to pitch well. But Opening Day starters in the Carpenter-Bedard class, return to pitch very well.
.............................
Kelvim Escobar begins to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/09/09
5 Comments
FLIP: Bedard's shoulder still hurts, the MRI's showed "some fraying," and it's in question whether Bedard will pitch again in 2009.
CHOP: "Some fraying" is typically what they say when there is normal wear and tear -- as there is for every pitcher -- and there's nothing serious. But it's also what they say, sometimes, before labrum surgery.
Now, of course, if the labrum or rotator cuff or whatever is the next thing we hear, then that's that.
But assuming that it isn't determined to be serious, or even if it requires the kind of surgery that Bedard had last year (before returning in 2009... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/09/09
8 Comments
Following a devastating sweep at the hands of the lowly Cleveland Indians in late July - a series in which the Mariners were outscored 32 to 7 - the common opinion around the water cooler in Seattle seemed to be that the Mariners' playoff hopes, slim from the get go, were over. The "objective" media even got into the act as the top columnists in Seattle all simultaneously called for the Mariners to sell the veterans they could and play for tomorrow. At the time we'd slipped to 7 back in the wild card and 9 back in the AL West and Boston was in on all kinds of rumors to improve their... Read More
Posted by anonymous (not verified) on 08/08/09
2 Comments
=== All Apologies Dept. ===
We write for our friends, not for folks we're hoping will do something about something. But we hope you'll forbear an exception here :- )
Ian Snell has a fundamentally sound pitching motion. But he has one fatal flaw and one painful flaw.
.
=== Pop-a-Shot Dept. ===
Ian Snell is throwing the ball with his left ear.
........
My basketball sensei is a guy who starred in major-college basketball, set free throw records for his school, coached a big-time high school program, etc etc.
He was a fine baseball player, a star football player, is a single-digits scratch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/07/09
13 Comments
Q: What, no POTD?
A: My magic 8-ball keeps saying "Get R' Dunn," so it's no help. The POTD will have to wait until after Fister is on TV for six or eight pitches. Sue us. :- )
.
Q. So what's this?
A. You wanted -something- through the window, right?
.
Q. Uh-oh, I hear that Fister is a Chris Jakubauskas type.
A. About 10% of all pitchers are Chris Jakubauskas types, give or take a beer-league pedigree.
Some never get out of high school. Some become Catfish Hunter or Bob Tewksbury or Kevin Tapani.
A template is not a pre-filled back-of-the-baseball-card.
.
Q. BTW, what about... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/07/09
5 Comments
Q. What's the template? Does he come from the Chris Jakubauskas Family of Top-100 Ever's?
A. 0+ walks are the dominating factor here. Anybody you compare the 2009 Fister to, has to walk ... um ... nobody.
Whether that's because of command, or because of giving in, his comps are the guys who go 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, ball in play or strike three.
.....................
Based on the report that he has a solid fastball, a fanatical commitment to strike one, a fair K rate in the PCL, a pedestrian G/F percentage, and not much offspeed ...
IN VERY LOOSE TERMS, that's what James called the Catfish... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/06/09
14 Comments
For those amigos who have been too busy calculating the Angels' runs scored, Matt Tuisosopo is sitting on five (5) multi-hit games in a row, with 3 homers and 11 RBI.
He's 11-for-19 in those games and is now listed at 6' 7", 302, the same as Terry Bollea. The Seahawks have threatened holdout Aaron Curry with a local Bo Jackson redux.
....................
Quick recap for those who became Mariner fans in the last week or two, like Sandy. Or if you missed one or two of the memos along the way...
.........................
1. Tui's dad was a star nose guard for the Chuck Knox Seahawks. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/06/09
9 Comments
On Kevin Calabro, ESPN-710, about 3:20.
We loooooove Kevin's work, but he did start off the segment with an out-of-character rebuke for all the 'nerds' out there. He'd obviously read the 'net griping about his previous interviews and the minor league bus-work.
"Hey, Luke, sorry, the nerds could not care less about you as a person; they just want to hear about your pitches. So let me get the seamhead stuff out of the way first off.... "
LOL. Was expecting the "And don't even think about bringing that stuff in the paint on KIRO, you pencilnecks" finish. When Kevin goes off on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/06/09
22 Comments
Q. Who was that guy who had a piece on Johnson's offensive surge?
A: One more plug for our good bud San-Man. Here y'go amig-O.
.............
Q: Is Rob Johnson a good defensive catcher, or not?
A: Not that this ends the discussion, but .... scouts and coaches have always taken it as a GIVEN that Johnson is a plus defensive catcher.
This seemed a bit odd to me, too -- at Cheney it always seemed that there were three balls a game to the backstop (which is about a yard behind the catcher, LOL).
But nobody ever thought Johnson would hit. He's in the game because the technical guys love his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/05/09
10 Comments
OOBF FLIP: If French has an average fastball, does that change the view on him? If it's even plus, does that change the view on him?
CHOP: Naturally. :- )
LOL. Everything we wrote is based on the premise that French has a minus fastball and a plus curve.
............
OOBF FLIP: Was it making too much soup off of one oyster -- to use a fave D-O-V phrase -- to go off Fangraph's velo readings for French?
CHOP: A fair question, of course.
What we were going off, was this:
1. The game that we saw French against the Mariners, in which he had a clearly minus fastball.
2. The Fangraphs... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/05/09
44 Comments
I saw someplace, forget where, a commenter quote a national analyst, who had claimed that Jose Lopez has "one of the quickest bats in baseball." This was followed by general derision, hilarity and peanut-shell throwing. :- )
.................
I fell out of my chair in the 6th inning of Wednesday's game. Roman Colon had entered the game, and on his first pitch to Jose Lopez, threw a fastball. This pitch was, according to Brooks, exactly 48 inches high off the ground, and 3 inches inside off the plate.
When a hitter is in his normal batting crouch and swings at an outside pitch, this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/05/09
2 Comments
=== M's 11, KC 6 ===
Fourth inning, 1B and 3B with one out, Jack Wilson squares around and bunts the ball at the second baseman. Kyle Davies, SP KC, scrambles over awkwardly, reaches for the ball awkwardly, falls over doing a face plant, and the ball goes for a hit.
Next batter steps in. Davies, with a Little-Leaguer look of frustration on his face, spins and FIRES to pick Gutierrez off second ... and spikes the ball into the ground. The ball rolls out to CF as if it had been between-innings infield practice.
Guti moves up.
Davies' next misfire is a pitch, to the backstop. Guti scores... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/04/09
17 Comments
Spec Flip: What happens if Johjima goes back to Japan? Doesn't that constitute "retiring" and get the Ms out of the deal -- isn't that what happened with Sasaki?
Couldn't that be mutually arranged?
CHOP: It could, and it had been my assumption that it is what Johjima would, in fact, DO -- if he is told flat-out that he is the backup catcher for 2010.
What had NOT occurred, for whatever reason (probably IQ deficiency) was how much money that lops off the payroll. Joh-san is making $8 large per season.
Johjima can make nice money back in Japan, and he can return as an MLB alumnus, and he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/03/09
10 Comments
So that pass on Adam Dunn -- how's that workin' out for yer?
:winning Anthony Hopkins smile:
The Mariners could have had two Branyans this year. Would that have changed the season? We know for a bloomin' fact that ONE Branyan did!
..................
We say Dunn RE-visited ... here was one of the earlier visitations. Actually, if you type the dude's name into the search box on this site, you'll come up with a dozen articles on him.
Among the 1000's of dreary (for me) words that we slogged through, trying to convince folks that Adam Dunn is deserving of a major league roster spot ...... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/03/09
10 Comments
.=== Most-Comparable Player Dept. ===
As you wrap your mind around the idea of Adam Dunn in Seattle, think David Ortiz (and Manny, hitting #3 and #4). Ortiz becomes the point of reference for Dunn.
Ortiz' lifetime OPS+ is 134; in 2004, the year the Red Sox broke the curse, his OPS+ was 145 (slightly lower than Dunn's current 149).
Dunn is 29 this year and showing a nice trend in his K/BB. Roids aren't an issue, since the guy is roughly the size of Mighty Joe to start with.
.............
Is it fair to project Adam Dunn, over the next 3 years, to provide offense roughly comparable to that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/02/09
5 Comments
Q. What if a guy like Luke French develops a plus changeup? Does that change the equation?
A. It doesn't, no.
For a guy throwing 86 with a plus curve, a 79 change doesn't really mean that much. It tends to play (for this template of pitcher) like a hung curveball. Not totally, but to some extent.
You saw this in April with Ryan Rowland-Smith. RRS *did* have a nice hook, and an 85 fastball, and he *did* throw a pretty decent 78 change. The result was strawberry jelly on the pitcher's mound.
....................
Jamie Moyer had a great hook, and a VICIOUS change (maybe THE best in ML... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/02/09
36 Comments
Q. Why do you say that 83 mph vs 86 mph doesn't mean much? Sounds like a cop-out.
A. 'Cop-out' has the connotation of 'intending to avoid responsibility.' :- )
True, D-O-V does discourage the theme that runs "Joe has a fastball 86-87, but that's better than Jamie or John, who averaged 83 mph."
.
Q. 96 vs 92 mph makes a difference, though, right.
A. Sure. 400 lbs on the bench vs 350 makes a difference, too. But 20 lbs vs 17 lbs doesn't. As you get tougher and tougher, the resources needed to meet the challenge go up exponentially.
But it doesn't work the other way. There comes a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/02/09
14 Comments
=== James Hetfield Nothing Else Matters, Dept. ===
We had plenty of shtick on Ian's first outing for the M's. None of it is worth much, neither (a) in terms of understanding him, nor (b) in terms of predicting him, until this (c) Brooks Baseball graph is explained.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.I wish we could have seen pitch 2,000 on this graph, thrown at -4 mph, so that we could have witnessed a wormhole / time travel effect on live TV.
.
=== And ... Just a Leeeeeetle Amp'ed There, Keeeed? ===
So there were two games: the one before the velo crash, and the one after. We won't even talk about the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/02/09
2 Comments
FLIP: Jon with another of his patented pitch-flight graphs, this one on Snell.
CHOP: This pitch-flight graphs do get the idea across on what Snell actually throws. (Though he does have an 80 curveball that drops straight down.)
Interesting to see a pitcher who turns the ball over so well on his changeup -- getting screwball action -- who also throws a tight-spin 11-5 slider breaking so hard the opposite way.
I mean Snell's slider can look like Kerry Wood's, and here he is getting run in on RH's with the other pitches. Not so many of those exist.
Drop Dead Freddy had a hard... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/02/09
40 Comments
FLIP: French is supposed to be help for 2009, huh?
CHOP: See Cool Papa's post "This is troubling" in the Aug. 1 pepper.
Every word he says is exactly mine.
On KJR, Capt Jack was very emphatic: this is the deal that got us both help down the road and HELP RIGHT NOW. Therefore I took this deal.
Which, supposing for a moment that you and I are right, and French is a Garrett Olson-level fringe SP, is alarming.
I know that the script is to praise Zduriencik's genius on every move individually, but on the surface of it, this one looks alarmingly misjudged.
She's over-bored and self... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/02/09
Pictured at right, Gutierrez going all out and very nearly derailing JZ's plans for world domination. The centerpiece of the J.J. Putz trade, not to mention, the Mariners' vastly improved team defense and the middle of the Mariner line-up, Franklin Gutierrez has been absolutely critical to the rebuilding plan from day one. Obviously other major decisions have changed the landscape of the Mariner outfield, including the departure of Raul Ibanez, the acquisition of Ryan Langerhans, the drafting of Dustin Ackley, and the trade of Wladimir Balentien.
Much like the bottom of the Mariner... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/02/09
We now turn our attention to the left side of the infield. At an organizational level, we were never as weak at third base as people perceived, nor was the shortstop position of strength at any time in the last several years, including today However, the team has made a number of moves recently to try to address problems at both positions.
They acquired Jack Wilson to buy them time at the sortstop position, they picked up Jack Hannahan to cover a huge hole at third base while Beltre was recovering from bone spurs, They drafted a low-upside fast-track-possible shortstop (Nick Franklin) in... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/01/09
7 Comments
See the mid-summer review for pitching if you're looking for the full explanation for how I grade players. We will continue this series with a breakdown of the right side of the Mariner infield and Seattle's backstops.
The relevant moves that have impacted the Mariners' situation at these three positions: the Clement for Snell trade, the signing of Russ Branyan, Mike Sweeney, Ian Bladegroen and until today, Chris Shelton, the addition of Chris Woodward and Jack Hannahan, and the acquisition of Mike Carp and Rich Poythress.
Let's start with the 2008 catchers and work our way around...... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/09
6 Comments
=== Signing In ===
By the way, if you double-click your "Pasadena32" name at the bottom of the site, in the chat box, and type in your preferred screen name ... it persists for all future sessions.
Then we're "on" for quick-IM'ing.
We all kinda like knowing that it's JFro, Sandy-Raleigh, M-Geek, and Lonnie onsite. :- ) It's sort of a nice favor to others to sign in, if you're so inclined. I'll do so too.
.
=== Image Processing ===
Thusly, amigos:
1. Save an image to your hard drive. NEVER allow it to be hosted by another site; it's not only impolite to them, but it also leaves us open... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/09
9 Comments
Flip: The rotation is announced as Vargas - Felix - Snell - RRS - and either Olson or French.
Chop: Capt Jack was on KJR saying that he took the Detroit deal precisely because he got talent for NOW AND LATER.
Other packages offered nice talent that was a few years away, and that wasn't as appealing, sez he. The Detroit deal stood out because the Mariners got help for 2009 along with the minors talent. That was the swing factor: help for 2009.
Z went on to emphasize that they've got a full six years of Luke French.
.............
I don't get this, though, that they keep saying "Olson... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/09
5 Comments
90% of M's Central fans approve of the deadline trades. That's a better demographic than Nancy Pelosi gets in San Francisco or Sarah Palin gets in Helena, Montana.
D-O-V isn't focused on counting up the runs gained and runs lost, though those are fine, too. From where we sit, Zduriencik adds two players that will be part of his next pennant. He's turning over the roster at F-22 velocity, and he is bringing in permanent pieces along with the bridge men.
.
=== Ian Snell vs. Jarrod Washburn ===
... would be a huge roto win for me *even if there were no contract considerations.* I would... Read More