At least to commenting here, I've been reading for more than a year. I hadn't noticed a predeliction towards locals, but I've heard it brought up regarding Tui in other places.
I wasn't referring to the snippet from this morning as you projecting him for stardom, I was referring to the post last week where you said you would be exactly 0% surprised by Bret Boone (Prime) style seasons out of Tui, and where you first brought up the Griffey/Henderson comparison. I think the reason that one doesn't get any notice is the fact that, by 23, they were both established major leaguers competing for MVP trophies.
I was going to say something about the idea that he's still "raw" at 23 after 5 years as a pro, and the continuing century mark strikeout seasons, but then I thought: Jayson Werth. His career path through 23 looks a lot like Tui's, and looking up his Hittracker page, his power looks like what you're saying too (left center to right center in his case more than consistent opposite field though). That seems like a narrow path to follow though. He's also got some similarities in his minor stats with Inge, but Inge barely managed to start for the Tigers with excellent defensive skills that Tui, from all reports, doesn't have.
Also, that's an amazing response time you have Doc.
We mused about Tuiasosopo's 900-point OPS swing when ahead or behind in the count.
We weren't using this little snippet of Tui's travails to argue a case before the Supreme Court. A month of bashing-and-dashing doesn't prove anything, but it did make us chuckle about the Jekyll-and-Hyde act he's throwing up down there.
Hyde was a pretty big dude. We saw the movie.
This elicited the following interesting dissent in the comments:
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Q. Why does a 1.350 OPS ahead in the count against a .450 OPS behind in the count indicate future stardom?
Taking a look at the numbers, when Tuiasosopo is behind in the count, he hits hard when he gets his bat on a pitch, notching 4 doubles and a homer out of 9 hits, but it costs him. Matt strikes out more than 50% of the time when the pitcher gets ahead.
A. We're talking about what, 100, 200 AB's? The 1350/450 note, is just a ball flipped in the air and chopped over to the left-hand pepper guy.
We're not saying that stat prophesies stardom, not predicting he'll be Barry Bonds, not upgrading his stock-sale grade, or anything like that.
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We ARE musing about the fact that Tui is raw, and that when he gets a situation that does not confuse him, he shows epic production.
SHELTON - 1000 / 600 split ahead or behind in count (400 point swing)
MORSE - 1200 / 800 ahead or behind (400 point swing)
WOODWARD - 875 / 750 (125 point swing)
TUI - 1350 / 450 (900 point swing)
Tuiasosopo is probably the most raw hitter at Cheney. He's confused a lot at the plate. But if you isolate for those AB's where he is not confused, then you see flashes of the potential.
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As to the XBH and K when he's behind -- he's not getting cheated on 1-2. Maybe, like Bret Boone, he needs to learn to cut down his swing with two strikes.
The 450 OPS, with a few XBH mixed in, tells me that he's too aggressive on 1-2. Probably the Mariners don't mind. They don't want to damp down his natural gusto, we assume.
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Q. Those things make him look like a mistake hitter to me, and suggest an Eric Karros type offensive career to me.
A. If Matt Tuiasosopo had found his level -- if he had been in a particular minor league for 2-3 years, or the majors for 4-5 years, and his game had stabilized -- then we would ask whether he was a mistake hitter.
After Tui has settled into his pitcher-batter matchups -- after the patterns and sequences are familiar to him, and he has settled into the daily grind --
If he THEN is swinging from the butt for easy-to-hit pitches, hoping for glory shots on centered fastballs and hanging curves, THEN he's a mistake hitter.
For a young minor-league hitter to sometimes hit well and sometimes get confused, that isn't because of a cheap approach in the batter's box. That's because he's figuring the game out.
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Tui is the opposite of a mistake hitter. His power is to right field. He waits on the ball and hits it hard the other way. Mistake hitters get their money to the straightway pull field and to their power alley.
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Q Maybe (he's) an Adrian Beltre in Safeco...and without the sterling defense and with a few more strikeouts. So, again, why the hooplah for Matt Tuiasosopo (other than that he's a local)?
A. :- )
You're probably new to D-O-V, so just real quick: I couldn't give two shakes who played baseball in Washington State before the pro's. I don't watch any of it, college or high school. Not a single game.
I wasn't interested in Tim Lincecum because he was a Husky; I was interested in him because, in the same league in the same year, he struck out twice as many hitters as Brandon "97 MPH" Morrow did -- and then played long toss foul-line-to-foul-line the next day.
I'm not psyched about Matt Tuiasosopo because he grew up within 100 miles of my house; I'm psyched about him because:
1. Roger Jongewaard said he was comparable to Griffey and Rickey
1a. The consensus in baseball was that Tui, at 18, was a 1st-round talent
2. He's got the body of an NFL linebacker (projectable 35-homer power)
3. He's got the nerve to stick his nose into a RH slider
4. My favorite kind of hitter is a powerful RH batter who hits homers to right-center (Piazza, Boone, Edgar)
5. He's got the performance arc consistent with *his kind of athlete* turning out to be a star
6. He's got the Griffey-type confidence that comes from growing up in a pro sports family
Tui isn't a hype job. He's a projectable 35-homer prospect who is beginning to show signs of the jackpot.
That's what he's done the last two weeks.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
...that myself, taro and Dr. D are quick with the responses generally. :)
Others pop by once a day or so (Sandy is big around these parts but he posts once or twice a day tops because his posts are eye-explodingly long. LOL)
As to your recent comments, I would agree that Tui has a ways to go before we can confidently assert that he will make a big impact. Hr's smarter and more balanced at the plate than Wlad Balentien, but Wlad demonstrates rather nicely why projecting guys with a zillion Ks in the minors to make an immediate impact is a little like projecting a high school drafted pitcher to win the CY in his first MLB season. :)
I seem to have missed the beginning of this debate, but if the OPS swing numbers are from this year, it's worth noting that Tui's elbow was bothering him at the beginning of the year, and he struck out in exactly half of his plate appearances before hitting the DL. He may whiff at a good clip, but not that much. Again, I'm not sure what data sample you're taking that from, but if it's from 2009 his first stint as Tacoma DH needs to be filtered out. He wasn't able to swing the bat comfortably.
But he's still struck out 27% of the time since coming back. Admittedly, he's got it down to 20% in August, but that's creating an ever shrinking sample, he was at 21.5% last year, which I hadn't noticed before. If he can keep it there, he's in decent shape, as long as he can hit 20 home runs. But that's still pretty light offense for a below average third baseman, which is probably why they have been trying him at 2nd, because 20 homers and 50 walks is pretty good from a Second baseman, even if his defense is sub par. That's basically Lopez if he took more than one walk per week.
and has a lousy EYE, then he's not of much interest.
The question is, why cap him at 20 home runs. If he doesn't have projectable power, who does?
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Needless to say, it's very possible that he'll turn out to be a run-of-the-mill ML regular. ...which, in cyber-Seattle, is supposed to be more valuable than Johann Santana if it occurs in the first six years ;- )