Good Dr., I really hope your comp to Moyer is prophetic.
IMHO, there is something uniquely cool about a pitcher achieving success with a velocity that, if centered, resembles nothing so much as a roundishly breaded object frequently served with sauce over Italian noodles.
In some ways, the tightrope-walking curler is more exciting than the flamethrowing phenom.
The speed merchant knows that if he throws it fast enough, you can't catch up, whereas the slow-boater knows that he's got to deceive your eye, twaddle your timing and simultaneously thread needles in order to safely approach a called-strike of any kind.
I loved watching Moyer throw slow, very slow, and ridiculously langsam as the lumber kings would twist themselves into the ground -- waiting for the ball to eventually cross the plate.
Most didn't have the patience.
It seemed at times that they didn't really think he could toss it any with any less pace than the last pitch -- and then, of course, he would -- and catch a sliver of the zone.
The obvious exasperation at being bested by a man with the velocity of a city-league, 6-12' arc softball pitcher was palpable. It was both humorous and amazing. And the knowledge that one poorly hung pitch could lead to a quick reversal of fortune upped the ante, and the glory.
It's like the 50ish tennis playing friend I had when I was 20. He had bad knees and wasn't in great physical shape. I should have mopped the court with him. But he always managed to place his shots just to the best advantage. And I don't remember beating him -- I'm not sure I ever did. That jerk! *grins*
I would love to think that we might have another craftsman like that in the fold.
Here's to you Mr. Fister -- may your career take a Moyeresque arc.
Lonnie, the big cheese at Mariner Central, has some on-the-spot Fister intel here.
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=== Middle Ground with the Champ ===
Fister gave up so few hard-hit balls because, in this one game, he painted. He painted every bloomin' INCH as well as Jamie Moyer did in his prime.
I began to agree with Taro more, about there not being so much difference between Fister's and French's fastballs, because I did start to get the feeling that if Fister missed with even one, that it was going to be launched.
He was 88-89, touching 90. He definitely did NOT have the swerve that he had last Tuesday. In this one Fister threw a bit harder, with better location, but considerably less movement.
Under those circumstances he cannot afford to center a FB to a power hitter, ever. That's no exaggeration. Every centered FB, for a Fister or French or Moyer or Radke, is a very good chance at a souvenir.
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The Swisher HR was an 85-mph batting-practice pitch. Fister is living on the edge. If he does not paint, he withers and dies.
So it's all about location for him. There ain't nothin' for us to do, but see whether he actually owns plus-plus command. He'll need it. And he may have it.
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In another game, he'll probably have his great movement back, and then he won't have to be as fine. Which is cool; pitchers go out there with different stuff every game.
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When ML scouts grade fastball they INCLUDE LOCATION. Jamie Moyer's fastball, in his prime, was a "plus" (60) fastball despite being 87 mph.
My rating of Fister's at 55 including bad velo, excellent movement, and good location.
Sunday, it was different: mediocre velo, okay movement, and sensational command. That's a 65, in Maddux style.
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=== The Change (Slider) & Change-Curve ===
Fister showed practically a Campillo-class changeup on Sunday, consistently getting the Yankee shoe salesmen wayyyyy out in front on it.
They call it a change when it tails a little, and call it a slider when it doesn't, but in either case he sells the STUFFING out of that pitch. It comes out of his hand looking fastball and actually gives you a bit of a parachute effect on the CF camera.
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The 72 curve was used 13 times, as opposed to 5 the other night, so that's cool. ... I wish that Nishiguchi had spent a few years as an M...
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=== Most-Comparable on Sunday: Jamie Moyer ===
LOL. .. you don't comp LH and RH, but in Sunday's game that's what happened.
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In Sunday's game, I didn't really feel like I was watching Brad Radke. I felt like I was watching a righty Jamie Moyer: paint FB, pull the string, mix in a few eephus change curves.
Jamie pitched his whole career, around the fact that he could never afford to center a FB. Fister will have to as well. It is possible, as Jamie (and Radke, and Maddux, and others) showed.
We comp to Moyer because of the dominating factor: cannot afford to center a single fastball, all game long. Jamie worked around that handicap, and he did it with exactly the same three pitches that Fister used on Sunday.
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Right now I'm intrigued by Fister's chances to show that hair-fine command, because he throws with a very quiet head and eyes and repeats his motion beautifully. He's got the stroke for plus-plus command.
And he has shown the 0+ walks in AAA, and he's got Burke's recommendation for it.
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I didn't think we'd see a second straight Command Force exhibition, but Fister actually took it up a notch. I'm getting more interested.
You go amig-O,
Dr D
Comments
...then he's the 30-32 year old Moyer already. Moyer at 25 had very poor command and did not have the stuff to compensate. Fister already has 32 year old Moyer's command (at least he appears to).
So if he's Moyer...he could very well win 300. :)
"IMHO, there is something uniquely cool about a pitcher achieving success with a velocity that, if centered, resembles nothing so much as a roundishly breaded object frequently served with sauce over Italian noodles."
Tuner: "In some ways, the tightrope-walking curler is more exciting than the flamethrowing phenom."
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Ya. Big Unit games were gratifying and euphoric ...but Jamie's were thrilling.
Jamie would be out there, ahead of the Angels 4-2, two guys on, one out, Vlad up .... pounding the ball into his mitt trying to figure out what to throw next.
Miss by eight inches, it's a tater. And then here would come another laser-guided pitch.
The suspense and tension in a Moyer game was oppressive, a lot of the time.
And there are many more awkwardly-worded posts where that one came from. *grins*
Its hard to understand why a guy with that changeup wasn't whiffing more guys in AAA and had such trouble vs AAA LHs. Hes been better in the bigs then he was in AAA.
I guess we'll see if the command continues to be excellent. His fastball is marginal, but his command was unbelievable yesterday.
Also FYI while Fister's fastball is minus, its MUCH better than even a young Moyer's. He won't get Moyer's generous strikezone, but if his command is this good, it won't matter.
I'm still in a wait-and-see mode considering the marginal AAA numbers, but I'm MUCH more interested than I was a couple days ago.
...I fear, taro, that you're a sucker of small sample flukage when it comes to the LHB split HR/Fly thing you were worried about. HR/Fly is fluky and highly volatile anyway in a full season, but we were dealing with 110 innings or so and Fister is a slight groundball pitcher (in AAA).
Ya, but his HR prevention in AAA wasn't neccesarilly good. It wasn't awful, but AAA hitters would park it from time to time despite a huge park advantage. I'm guessing that his command has been on-point in the first couple of starts with very few centered fastballs.
His SwS% in AAA was 6.2 in MLB right now its 8.7%. It really makes you wonder, maybe Fister just wasn't throwing his change-up that much in the minors? Maybe in AAA Fister was ditching his best pitch (changeup) for whatever reason, much like French is ditching his best pitch (slider) with the Mariners.
Anyhow, I'm going to once again have my eyes glued on his next start.
There are some pitcher types who do better against the more talented, more patient big leaguers than they do against general hack'n'slsah and his band of merry slap and tickle non-prospects in AAA. I think there are more guys putting the ball in play early in counts in the minors (it makes sense for this strategy to dominate lower levels where defenses are significantly worse). Of course I also think you're right that Fister has probably been hot so far and that we should expect some bad starts where he can't miss bats and makes a couple of bad mistakes that cost him with his fastball. That doesn't prevent him from being a MOR starter with a 4 ERA.
A 4 ERA is better than a MOR type, but with Seattle and this D, he could live in that 4-4.5 ERA range if his command is relatively consistent.
Honestly I'm shocked at how much better he looks than his AAA numbers. Its probably a combination of him being on a good roll command-wsie and his suprisingly good changeup which I'm guessing he didn't throw as much in AAA.
He probably didn't need the change-up much in AAA...he threw his curve more down here though. When he came up the scouting report from our minor league fans was "average fastball with decent sink and run, great command, decent curveball"...not much mention of the change.
for two games, he's looked like an ML star.
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How does this reconcile with his AAA stats? ... because he was running a 0+ walk rate. His CTL was like 7:1, and CTL is the single most important metric on a pitcher.
Fister's stats this year, in AAA, were sensational. We'd have perceived that, provided that we ratio'ed strikeouts to walks first, as we should.
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What is shocking, though, was that Fister leaped a plateau very suddenly, as Mark Lowe did a couple of years ago. 12-18 months ago, Fister was not pitching like this and was not much of a prospect.
Something happened, and he started throwing the stuffing out of the ball, and the M's were quick to readjust their label.
Fister's transition from July 2009 to August 2009 was not shocking, but his transition from 2008 to 2009 was. :- )
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I'd sure like to hear, from Fister, what the Eureka was.
He was good in AAA, but hes whiffing more guys in his first two starts in the bigs. Maybe hes just commited to the changeup more at the big league level with Joh as his catcher?
With the RJ hype I think Joh would be a better fit for the Fister or French (more sliders please) type pitchers. I'm starting to think that the M's veteran pitchers just have built their own way of pitching through the years and Johjima threatened that. They took Joh's different approach as a negative, stopped having positive visuals on the mound, and then before you know it they actually started pitching worse with Joh behind the plate. Johjima has done just fine with the rookies.
I think that one important thing that may be overlooked is the venues that Fister has plyed his trade at so far in '09. The AL does not have an equivalent to Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Salt Lake, etc. Pitching at home at the Safe is a little different than pitching at Tacoma, but not a whole lot. Still though, those away games at real launchpads will hurt any pitchers stats, especially w/r/t homeruns given up.
I think I need to delve a bit into the game by game stuff and put Fister under the scope at the MC.
Lonnie