Don't disagree at all with your take.
I'd rather have Mauer than Johnson -- I'd rather have Youkilis than Beltre -- I'd rather have Bay than Saunders.
Sometimes it's not about the VORP/$ -- it's just about the dollars. Me? I don't think Captain Jack would object to Dunn. He'll fudge his value down as on OF, perhaps -- but there was every indication the club at least explored the option of getting Dunn for this year, and simply didn't have the money to do it.
For 2010 (and beyond), it's reasonable to assume that Griffey will not be starting. (I could see him accepting the Sweeney role of veteran off the bench, perhaps - but who knows). So, yeah, the club would appear to be in the DH market for 2010. BUT, depending on how things work out with the passel of pitchers they've purloined, they could end up in need of acquiring a starter. Certainly this isn't the desired outcome of the recent trades - but still possible.
Dunn took chump change in 2009 for the purpose of coming back and snagging a juicier contract in 2010. By February, if the economy has turned around, (I pegged October of this year to be the point where giddyness returns to the economic front, btw - did so back in February.), how many years and dollars will Dunn be looking at?
The whole CONCEPT of "settle for a cheap 1-year deal" comes pre-loaded with PATIENCE. Which means, barring an Ibanez-like (oops) on reading the FA market, I'm betting most of the FAs are gonna wait as long as possible to let the economy improve and hope to get rich on the upswell. Do I KNOW what the price for Dunn will be? No. Nobody does. But, as much progress has been made, the club is STILL more than a single bat away from contending.
CA, 2B, SS, CF, RF ... these slots are pretty certain for 2010.
1B, 3B, LF, DH ... are all up for grabs. If you pay for Dunn BEFORE deciding those other three slots, then Saunders and Carp and Tui may well be automatic selections -- and you've done EXACTLY what I've preached against -- you've painted yourself into a corner where your rookies HAVE to produce immediately, or you're hosed.
There's already been tons of speculation about what might be offered to Bedard or Branyan or Beltre. IMO, you *HAVE* to answer those questions first. If you're going to attempt to continue to feed and nurture the concepts of rewarding performance, then Branyan should realistically be a high priority. HE performed wonderfully. Beltre and Bedard are different animals, however. Injuries hurt - and Beltre didn't perform while playing. Barring a super-discount, letting Beltre walk makes sense ... but then you have to bite the bullet and pay for a replacement, or gamble on Hannahan and Tui for 2010.
It's easy to SAY Seattle has the money to do whatever *I* want. But, I think we'd all be a little on the miffed side if our friends signed us up for the the super-mega-cable-deal, so they could come over and watch, while they paid the $200/month bill. (Of course, we'd buy the popcorn on game night).
Ultimately, the club still has a $12 million minus on the spreadsheet (times years), on the Silva deal. A *VERY* likely reality is that the "cost" of signing Dunn is that Silva is the #5 SP while Dunn's in town. In that scenario, I'm not sure the team wins.
1. I love Russell Branyan.
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2. His OPS+ is 132 and dropping. This is his only year of fulltime performance. Except for this year, he's never proven ANYthing about fulltime play.
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3. Adam Dunn has 6 years in a row, counting this one, of 40+ homers. He's got a track record.
We are INFERRING that Russell Branyan can hit ML pitching in fulltime play. He has not proven that yet. We are inferring exactly nothing about Adam Dunn's ability to hit ML pitching in fulltime play. He has been doing it since he was 21 years old, posting a 136 OPS+ when he was younger than Michael Saunders is now.
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4. Adam Dunn has 6 years in a row, counting this one, of 100+ walks.
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5. Russ Branyan averages 62 walks per 162 games. Adam Dunn provides 115 walks per 162 games.
Branyan is much less of a *hitter* than Dunn is. Branyan has pretty well indicated that he can defend himself against lefties and righties, but he still has 126 whiffs against only 51 walks this year.
And that's getting worse this year: he has 31 whiffs vs 6 walks in the second half. It is an open question whether Branyan is a little overexposed now.
Dunn doesn't defend himself against anybody. Pitchers defend themselves against him.
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5. Branyan is 33 and facing a significant age-decline question. Even if Branyan, like Jack Cust, were cheated out of a career, it is possible that at ages 34-35 he'll be done with that career anyway.
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6. Adam Dunn is 29.
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7. Adam Dunn was always a blue-chip, special talent. He was a #4 hitter in the big leagues from the age of 21.
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Branyan is a neat sabermetric move; I want him back; but he is not comparable to Adam Dunn. Branyan is comparable to Jack Cust.
There is SOME chance that Branyan MIGHT provide 70-90% of Dunn's 40-HR, 100-BB performance next year. The chance of Dunn providing Dunn's performance is approximately 100%.
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Of course, it's a fair point that Dunn might drop back from his 153 OPS+ ... even if Safeco put some more wind at his back. As Taro implies, you'd probably be safer to project him to a 135-145 OPS+ or so, even in Safeco. (Then if you get a 155 or 165 or 175 season, it's gravy.)
A bankable 40 homers, 100 walks, and 130-150 OPS+ is worth banking. :- )
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As to Dunn's performance fitting onto Junior's baseball card .... as we said in the comments, go to Junior's b-ref.com card, and then sort it by OPS+.
You'll see that, if you expect any synergy at all between Dunn and Safeco Field, that Dunn's 2010-11 are easy to project as fitting onto Junior's card as his, say, #5 or #7 or #9 seasons.
Dunn doesn't play CF. But Ken Griffey Jr. of 1998-99 -- could do an awful lot for the Mariners of 2010-11. :- ) The 29-year-old Junior would make an awfully good DH for this club.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
It's just that I'm unclear as to whether he's worth nothing, as the national pundits tend to think :- ) or whether he's worth $18M a year at DH, as he no doubt thinks.
There's a lot of budget juggling to be dunn between now and January. It will be interesting to see what kind of "cap" room the M's signal they have.
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Hard to believe that they wouldn't be able to fit $10, $12M in, sans Beltre, Washburn, with a discounted Bedard, if they were so inclined. They inquired about Dunn *last* year.
is about as unpredictable as it's been in my lifetime.
As you say,
++ Dunn took chump change in 2009 for the purpose of coming back and snagging a juicier contract in 2010. ++
And it's easy to imagine finger-trigger games this winter as all of the players (and GM's) wait longer-than-usual for other dominoes to fall.
Thing is: you and I consider Dunn's $10M to be chump change, but last winter most of Seattle actually considered that an overpay. ... you're implying that a 2/$20M deal would be worth contorting for, but that you wouldn't want to go the 4/$60M that Dunn deserves.
For some reason I'd remembered him as taking a 1-year deal, but Cots has him as being on a 2-year deal with the Nats. $8M this year, $12M next.
You'd be looking at giving up a couple of our best prospects for him. At this point you almost start to dread the two-year cyber campaign against him that would ensue, but maybe Capt Jack's honeymoon would spare us this time.
At MLB Rumors they link Jon Heyman, who claims that the following players are expected to clear waivers:
Bronson Arroyo, Adam Dunn, Jose Guillen, Aaron Harang, Adrian Beltre, Aubrey Huff, Jason Giambi, Melvin Mora, Miguel Batista, Juan Cruz, Ty Wigginton, Ron Mahay, Willie Bloomquist, Lyle Overbay, Willy Taveras.
Of course, that's based on Heyman's opinion that Dunn's salary would "scare teams off" of claiming him.
Don't get me wrong Doc, I agree with you on most of your points. I just think Dunn probably won't be as awesome as you'd think in the AL coming off a good BABIP-driven year.
Branyan has shown slightly more pop the past two years and Dunn more patience, slightly more contact.
A better comp may be a younger Sexson, except lefty, less power, and more walks.
Why would you give up top prospects for him though? I think that borderline nuts.
In that scenario I prefer going after a guy Thome in the offseason. Cheaper, no prospects, probably the same production.
Since when is it crazy to trade a guy with a 20%, 30% chance to be a star, for a guy who actually is a star?
If you're going to trade for ANYbody, this is the guy who fits your park and this is the guy whose skills -- being 350 pounds and not swinging at balls -- translate to the AL.
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Jim Thome? How old is he going to be in 2010? He's swinging through Doug Fister fastballs already.
Jimmy has been a great player, but he is in the 2nd year and final year of his 125-OPS+ plateau and next year will be either 100 or 120, 50% chance of either. The year after he's dunn.
as always.
I think its nuts. Its a good move if hes a 2nd or 3rd year player that you can lock up long-term cheap.
Hes not, hes a 30 year old DH making $12mil next year in a one-year deal and hes not Ortiz or Hafner in their primes. Thome will cost you half and may not be much of a downgrade, if at all (on a one-year deal).
I'm in favor of claiming him, but trading meaningfull talent on top of that? No chance.
So what do you think when guys like Pat Gillick give up two or three top prospects for an ace pitcher or MOTO bat to help them for two months plus one postseason? :- )
Sorry Taro, but you sound like Dave Cameron right now (and we all know what I think of Dave Cameron). Dunn coming to Seattle would almost certainly include a window to talk contract extension, so you're not talking about a 1-year rental...you're talking about buying the next 3 years of Dunn's prime at something like 13 mil/year averaged. In this position, I would ABSOLUTELY consider trading a couple of decent prospects to the Gnats for Dunn...it's not like we're acquiring a guy who is likely to implode any time soon, and it's not like the prospects we'd be paying would be guys that have a high probability of ever being anywhere near as good as Adam Dunn.
I think it's crazy to NOT trade for Adam Dunn if you don't have to give up established major leaguers under club control to do it. And frankly, wringing your hands over Dunn making 12 mil/year (when all of the statistics make it clear that he is EASILY worth 12 mil/year in an average season)...is just plain old silly.
Cliff Lee is a much, much, much better player than Dunn, is making less $s, and has a year of control left. The Phillies are also in a much better spot to make noise in the playoffs and ALSO get a shot at extending him to reasonable $s. They even managed to give up only semi-interesting prospects. I LOVE that trade for the Phillies, I think its a steal.
I don't get giving up good prospects for Dunn when you could have signed him in the offseason if you wanted. Nothing has changed between now and then either than the fact that hes more expensive now since the deal is backloaded. Hes still a highly overrated player when hes in the field and an underrated bat as a DH. Hes a very good DH, but not elite and when it comes down to it there are cheaper, comparable options available this offseason if its going to cost me good 'specs.
Claiming him? Sure, if the Ms okay the salary. Giving up talent for him on top of that? I don't see it.
Make the claim. One outcome is like Rios, where the claiming team is responsible for the rest of the contract. So for Dunn, the rest of his $8M for 2009 (so ~$2M?), and $12M for 2010. No biggie. If the Gnats see we won't give up good prospects, then they can pull him back off waivers or let him go for nothing but a salary dump.
I fail to understand the reasoning for making a direct comparison between Dunn and Branyan when getting both is in no way mutually exclusive.
Taro tried to argue that Dunn was a Branyan-esque bat, not an elite offensive force. Doc destroyed that idea...it had to be done.
I said that they'd have more or less similar value in the AL, and I stand by that.
I think Dunn is Branyan plus some BBs minus a lot of D at 1B. Hes an excellent hitter, but I wouldn't get too carried away with him considering that hes a DH only and he aint no 1.000 OPS hitter. My bet is he sits around 880ish in this park.
Branyan=Dunn, more or less, as long as Branyan can keep this up. If Branyan regresses, ya.
Would I claim Dunn? Sure, but I wouldn't give up any prospects of value for him.
as usual, goes his own way and defends his path with honor and style :- ) but right, Papa. I've been talking about Dunn 3 and Branyan 4.
It's all hot stove type stuff, of course. It's just baseball chat with Dunn in Washington through '10. But I can dream...
Or is it the other way around? I always forget.
Definitely appreciate your having my back ... still, what say we show the Taro-na-tor some extra dojo manners. :- ) You two are the 1B and 3B coaches here. Or is it the co-GM's...