Play to Win

Following a devastating sweep at the hands of the lowly Cleveland Indians in late July - a series in which the Mariners were outscored 32 to 7 - the common opinion around the water cooler in Seattle seemed to be that the Mariners' playoff hopes, slim from the get go, were over.  The "objective" media even got into the act as the top columnists in Seattle all simultaneously called for the Mariners to sell the veterans they could and play for tomorrow.  At the time we'd slipped to 7 back in the wild card and 9 back in the AL West and Boston was in on all kinds of rumors to improve their ballclub at the deadline.

Thankfully, Zduriencik doesn't listen to the media and equally importantly, doesn't come from the all or nothing school of thought that seems to drive the net rats.  It seems to me that Mariner fans (at least the ones who post regularly within the blogosphere) are of the opinion that you have to be the odds-on favorite to at least get to the ALCS for it to be worth something to play for the season.

He traded Jarrod Washburn and the net rats cheered that he'd done the correct thing and punted the season.  But he chose the Tigers' offer specifically because he wanted the pitcher that could hold down Washburn's rotation spot in '09.  Luke French is not a glamor prospect, but he can help the '09 Ms fight to beat the odds and make the post-season.  He traded prospects for Ian Snell and Jack Wilson to improve the '09 club while setting up for '10.

Ten days after the deadline, the Red Sox had indeed made a trade to improve their offense - which was followed almost immediately by a bone crushing 6 game losing streak.  The previously red hot Rays have also fallen on some recent struggles, and the Mariners are back on the winning track and 4.5 out of the wild card...well within striking distance of the big dance.

I consider this a "teaching moment" for myself as much as for the rest of the Mariner blogosphere.  Zduriencik himself may not believe the Mariners can win the wild card or the west, but he's operating with knowledge that USSM and LL lack.  Let this be a lesson for us - you cannot put a pricetag on dignity.  Just as there is no such thing as a dignified death, there is no such thing as a franchise with a winner's mentality that gives up when the odds are long.  There is no dignity in treating 25 overgrown children like stratomatic cards or poker chips.  Baseball is simulated war, and no general ever won hero's praise from his own troops by surrendoring every time things got risky.

Say the worst happens...the Mariners try their best and fall short of the playoffs in 2009.  Do you know what they're thinking as they pack up to go home for the winter?  "We left it all on the field, Zduriencik gave us a chance, and we came up short.  Next year will be different."  They walk out with their heads held high and in 2010, they believe their general is going to put them in position to try again.  If we'd have punted '09, the club would feel like it was starting from scratch when it returned in 2010.  You'd have to build that trust all over again...a process that if repeated could set back a team for years.  Don't believe me?  Ask Jack Wilson how it feels to have your best players sold out from under you year after year in the never ending quest to hold out for a better hand.  Bill Veech famously quipped "Five year plans only lead to more five year plans.  Don't believe me, ask the Phillies."  At that time the Phillies had never won a world series despite existing since 1876.  Their long track record of saving money and building for tomorrow produced the first sports franchise to ever lose 10,000 games.

I, for one, never wanted the Mariners to fold, not even after the debacle against Cleveland.  But I will admit that I did not watch the next two games and felt as though the season had ended.  After one bad series.  I can understand the call for the rebuild...it certainly felt like we'd lost all hope, and I think that's because I'd become used to the losers mentality that Bavasi had installed here.  I thought the guys had finally folded.  I thought they were going to struggle the rest of the way.  They proved me wrong.

But I remembered another club that ran into a horrible losing streak in late July and early August, falling even further out of contention than our boys had in '09.  That club was about to get a major star back from the DL, but we're getting Beltre back (perhaps not a major star, but a central figure in the clubhouse).  That club made similar trades for interesting players for now and the future at the deadline.  That club was led by its offense rather than its defense, but the shape of the franchise shouldn't matter as much as the quality of its' strengths.

I hope the rest of you feel the same vibes that I do now...the "battle back" spirit of the '09 Mariners that has led them to a 27-14 record in 1-run games and an AL leading 33 come from behind wins rivals the winning spirit in 1995.  Playing or not in October, this club is securing for itself a lasting desire for excellence and a winning personality that wouldn't have been possible if Zduriencik had played his hand the way the saber dweebs on the net wanted and sold high on guys like Branyan and Aardsma.  Zduriencik's refusal to abandon 2009, whatever the odds said was the best play, has put the 2009 team in a position to do something unexpected, and perhaps more importantly, has gained the 2010 Mariners 10 wins or more in self confidence.  Count on that.

Comments

1

"Wow."   [Dan Patrick]
C-points squared.
++ Zduriencik's refusal to abandon 2009, whatever the odds said was the best play, has put the 2009 team in a position to do something unexpected ++
:shrug: they're -5 in the WC, -8 in the division, early August.   That's hardly a 12-game deficit.
................
What I'd like to know:  WHY quit?
It's one thing to argue that we accept our fate, when you're selling out for a specific return (a Grade B prospect and a fringe ML pitcher).
It's another thing to argue that we accept our fate, when there is nothing to lose by going out there and playing hard.  The fact that people STILL argue that we should quit, makes me (more) suspicious of the whole argument.

2

There were some who were calling for us to trade Aardsma, Branyan, Lopez, Beltre (before he got hurt) etc.  I guess my overall point is that Pittsburgh does that kind of thing every year, gets 10 minor leaguers back and the cycle starts again...and the players never believe they can win, even when 2 out of the last 3 years they play solid .500 ball in April and May and are in contention even through June.  If Z took over Pitt, the firesales would stop, and the club might have a chance to win even with a small payroll.
I don't see what is to be gained by trading away your veterans just because your odds of winning aren't >50%.

3

If you're talking about recycling players for true impact ML-ready talent, that's worth TALKING about.
That hasn't been the case this year.  To me, it has sounded like a call to punt the season for no particularly important return.
................
But like you say, I don't see the need to deliberately lose for a while before winning.  Capt Jack is re-tooling WHILE improving TODAY's team.
As he put it on the radio, it is NOT a future direction he's going.  It's a DIFFERENT direction.  You and I can take solace in the fact that Jack's on our side on this one, Matty.  :- )

4

Of the 25 men on the big league roster on August 31st (pre-call-ups), 2008, only eight (8!) remain.
Ichiro, Lopez, Beltre, Johjima, Rowland-Smith, King Felix, Miguel Batista, and Mark Lowe.
Carlos Silva is on the payroll unavoidably, but not on the roster.  The 17 other players on the active roster:
Rob Johnson
Russell Branyan
Mike Sweeney
Ken Griffey Jr.
Jack Wilson
Jack Hannahan
Mike Saunders
Ryan Langerhans
Franklin Gutierrez
Luke French
Ian Snell
Doug Fister
David Aardsma
Sean White
Shawn Kelley
Chris Jakubauskas
Garrett Olson
Were all hand picked by Zduriencik...either for promotion and significant playing time out of the zoo that was the pre-existing farm system, or through trades and free agency.
How many 101 loss teams can you think of that replaced 17 guys on their roster with outside help without spending a gazillion dolllars in free agency and went on to do something other than lose 100 games again?  Seriously...I'm asking anyone around here...how often does a GM come in, replace 2/3 of the ballclub and start winning IMMEDIATELY?  LOL

5
Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Great article, Matt.
Before we get too giddy here, it is important to understand the difference between TRYING to do both, (get better today AND tomorroww), and succeeding.  French, Snell, Wilson and "hopefully" guys that help today.  But, let's face it, Wilson is the only one where the probability is extremely high that he helps immediately.  French and Snell are both "hopes" for today and tomorrow.
I myself stated that the notion that the trade-dealine is an either-or situation is patently false.  A good GM "tries" to do both.  But it is no trivial exercise to pull off.  You have to already be holding something that is valued enough elsewhere that you can get some cake for now and later. 
In truth, I believe there was some disappointment expressed with the Wash deal especially, because it didn't bring any immediate offensive help.  It's nice to imagine trading a nominally useful piece for an immediately useful piece AND prospect gravy.  But, it takes two (or more) to tango.
While I loooove what Jack has done, he may have been oddly helped by the Bedard and Beltre injuries, nixing any genuine possibility of trading either for value.  The Bedard situation was particularly paradoxical in that the timing of his latest injury likely increased the impetus for dealing Wash.  (If Bedard doesn't return, the odds of continuing to compete have to be viewed as realisitically tiny.  If he DOES return, then you're going to look REALLY foolish, unless you get a body to IMMEDIATELY replace Washburn).  The Bedard issues not only likely encouraged the trade - they likely shaped the trade, too.
Of course, in the political arena, if the club flounders w/o Bedard that doesn't reflect poorly on Z, (Bedard wasn't his fault - and he "tried" to replace him on the fly best he could).  Sending Wash to a team with a suspect defense is also a plus, as a poor showing in Detroit will likely bring out the "we told you he'd regress to the mean" crowd. 
What's going to be most bizarre about the next two months is that the team has morphed almost overnight into an offense-first club with major pitching concerns.  The defense can only help out the gopher loving pitchers so much - and can't protect against control issues, either. 
The defense is good as ever, (.708 DER), basically the same as it has been for months.  But, the team ERA has spiked to over 5 since the break.  Practically EVERY analysis of the team stats taken as a whole, (with the possible exception of the defense), is almost useless in terms of projecting the final two months.  The assumptions about the pitching/defense performance coming up are by necessity going to be based on wishes and wags.

6

Is worth a front-pager on Sandy's Pitch or Matt's Machinations or something. :- )
I got whiplash watching this team do a thermal inversion last week.  ... was nice watching that rotation while it lasted...

7

...I would not leap to many conclusions about the team ERA since the break.  What's happened is that the Mariners have gone from a consistent pitching staff to a spectacularly inconsistent pitching staff.  THey still have guys who can win you big ballgames in that rotation, but the staff suddenly got very VERY young.  Check these ages for me:
King Felix: 23
Ian Snell: 27
Ryan Rowland-Smith: 26
Luke French: 23
Doug Fister: 25
David Aardsma: 27
Mark Lowe: 26
Shawn Kelley: 25
Sean White: 28
Chris Jakubauskas: 30
Garrett Olson: 25
Miguel Batista: 38
Average age of the current staff: 26.9 (LOL)
The good news is that the run differential is now going to be DEEPLY misleading.  A staff that throws a RA line of 2, 4, 3, 12, 0, 11, 5, 2, 10, 9, 2, 4 etc is going to drastically overperform their Pythag (becauyse the mean RA/G is not representing the typical result).
The bad news, as Sandy correctly points out is that the inconsistent rotation is going to tax the bullpen and there is danger of a total bullpen collapse in September.  BUT...unlike in 2007, this team is now being run by a man who is willing to let the roster move a bit, which means if the bullpen guys start imploding, you'll see fresh bullpen guys called up to take innings.

8

...Wak showed a good quick hook with French tonight...he has a good feel for when the pitchers are just starting to have the wheels come off...he's saved a few games from getting out of hand this way, and tonight it got the Ms a W.
It was nice to see the Mariners bear down real hard and force a red hot pitcher who was throwing (very effective) strikes with three pitches the first time through the order, to throw a lot of pitches and get out of rhythm.  This team is MUCH better at the plate than people are realizing.

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