Q.  Did you predict Chris Jakubauskas to win 15 games?

A.  I did not.  Thanks for asking.

This is one that bears clarification, because [big smile guys] the shaving-cream pies are getting a little old.  The idea is that since we misunderstood Jakubauskas, we're probably misunderstanding Fister.

:: ahem ::  :: taps microphone ::

First:  we didn't say Jaku would probably succeed.  We said that we would move him to the front of the #5-6 line, ahead of Olson, Vargas and the 85 RRS.

We misunderstand lots of guys:  Zito, Lopez, Washburn, Gutierrez, the list goes on.  Jakubauskas is one of the few we didn't :- ) and here we are, thinking that he invalidates Doug Fister.

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Q.  "First?"  What's second.  There's a caveat?

A.  The one that we use most of the time.  We asked:  will Jakubauskas execute his pitches?

Our own tentative 30-40% projection for Jaku to help in some degree or other was based on a certain premise.  And we stated  itverrrrrrrrry carefully.

That premise of a 30-40% chance to help was that Jakubauskas would execute his pitches just as well, in hot sun exposure, as he did in the cool shade of the bullpen duties.  

We warned that he might not do so.   This is always the question when a pitcher moves into an ML rotation for the first time.   It's the same thing we're watching for tonight, on Fister -- not, does he give up runs.  But, does he execute his own game.

...................

The fact is that he got into the rotation and Chris Jakubauskas stopped executing his pitches.  In the 'pen he had been painting, and changing speeds.  He went into the rotation and for several games threw literally 85, 90% fastballs. 

I got into a little wrangle with Billy1 about it at the time.   "Does Chris Jakubauskas really seem like the kind of pitcher who should be leading the league in % of fastballs thrown?"

.................

That wasn't even the biggest problem.  Be it nerves, or lack of ability, or whatever, he started throwing with mediocre command.

It wasn't Chris Jakubauskas that attracted our attention.  It was the template-- the possibility of plus-plus command with effective offspeed stuff.  Jaku stopped providing this template, as we specifically warned that he might.

Now, because I opined that Jaku was a better lotto ticket than the hopeless Olson, Sandy and others remember me as having predicted 15 wins.  Nada.

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Q.  But you are predicting Fister for 15 wins next year?

A.  No!  No!  No!  :- )

My current odds are against Doug Fister even being in the rotation for 2010!  

It says here that Fister gives a 33% chance to succeed, vs. French's 5% chance.   Can we remember that, this time, after Fister starts grooving 88 mph meatballs?  ;- )

D-O-V is not selling Doug Fister as a probable "find"!  I'm intrigued by his potential to execute these pitches.  Call it a 30%, 40% chance to execute like this, and if so, he's a good starter.   If not, he's gone.

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Q.  Why are you so biased toward the Fister / Jaku template?

A.  An 88 mph fastball, on the black, is a whale of a pitch.  And some guys can repeat it.   I'd like to know whether Doug Fister is one of them.   Catfish Hunter went to the Hall of Fame by nailing the black with a mediocre fastball.

95% of all good major league pitchers have a "calling card" weapon.  Fister offers the possibility of a "calling card" weapon -- plus-plus command of his fastball.

Luke French, by contrast, has no plus weapon, which is why scouts refer to him as a "dime-a-dozen" lefty.

I could be wrong on that; I often am.  But it's not bias against lefties.  We love Ryan Rowland-Smith, right?  It's bias against pitchers who have no right cross to work with.

.....................

D-O-V is warning, very emphatically, that Doug Fister might stop executing his pitches.  Like, tonight.   Get it?, Got it!, Good.  :- )

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Q.  How does Fister look, now, compared to Jaku, back in his first appearances?

A.  Tons better. 

Jakubauskas' fastball was always much straighter (though faster) and Fister has already done a lot more to demonstrate consistent control than Jaku did.

Jaku has a quality overhand curve, but doesn't throw it.  Fister has an excellent change and he does throw it.

Jaku, an indy-league reclamation, went deer-in-the-headlights when he got a start.  Doug Fister has mound presence that Felix Hernandez could learn from.

So, yeah, I want to see more of Fister.  He's got a shot.

BABVA,

Dr D