Spec Flip: What happens if Johjima goes back to Japan? Doesn't that constitute "retiring" and get the Ms out of the deal -- isn't that what happened with Sasaki?
Couldn't that be mutually arranged?
CHOP: It could, and it had been my assumption that it is what Johjima would, in fact, DO -- if he is told flat-out that he is the backup catcher for 2010.
What had NOT occurred, for whatever reason (probably IQ deficiency) was how much money that lops off the payroll. Joh-san is making $8 large per season.
Johjima can make nice money back in Japan, and he can return as an MLB alumnus, and he can enjoy his last few years of baseball. As Spec notes, this is precisely what Sasaki did.
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As many have noticed and as San-Man underlined, Rob Johnson had 10 BB vs. 10 K in July and is rapidly improving at the plate.
How good does Johnson have to be, before you accept 130 games from him at 2010? Not very, if he comes with an $8M cost savings. Dunn & Johnson or Langerhans & Johjima? Thought so.
Johnson's 10 walks in July are very interesting, because we all know that he has respectable gap power. He combo'ed the BB and XBH into a 118 OPS+ in July, and... that led to what, a 270/390/425 line. 10 walks, 5 doubles, and a homer in July. That's 60 walks, 30 doubles, 10 homers over a full season. A nice year from a catcher.
If RJ continues to shrink his strike zone, and strike the pitches into the tween zones, you could see him running a 260/360/420 line in the best-case. That's a real solid hitter. From a glove-first catcher that's a player you could win a pennant with.
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Well, I'm about as close to projecting Rob Johnson to a 118 OPS+ as you are but like we say, the guy has a great shot to become Dan Wilson.
Maybe even Dan plus a few walks, and maybe even Dan plus a little power. Danny was a pretty slim guy. RJ could hold a charging DE off of Matt Hasselbeck for a 1-alligator count, if he had to.
Dan Wilson's okay with me, if he comes with a 2 x $8M dowry.
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Watcher FLIP: Yeah, Dunn should DH, but Griffey/Sweeney at DH > Saunders/Langerhans in LF, and Dunn is better than any of them.
So play Dunn in LF in 2009 through Jr.'s farewell and be happy. You have your super DH in 2010.
CHOP: A creative solution to what is becoming a 2009 quibble.
You've got what, 50-60 games now, and even Dr. D is watching these guys fall back by 22 in the fourth quarter and running out for a quick lemonade.
And even the non-UZR-bound Dr. D is a bit squeamish about putting Adam Dunn in the field if it isn't necessary to break a team offensive slump or something.
So here's an answer. If that is the only thing keeping you from pairing up your Manny-Ortiz Lite in Safeco -- that you don't know where to pencil Dunn's name in for the next 50 games -- then absolutely. Play him in LF *for those games that Griffey DH's anyway.* (Griffey sits a fair amount now, and Dunn can DH those. Finesse it with Junior.)
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Again, you don't PREFER to build your offense at 1B and DH. There is nobody, I mean nobody, who emphasizes position scarcity more than Dr. D.
But nothing's an absolute.
Branyan and Dunn, IN THE SAFECO CONTEXT now, are pennant-class mashers. The Boston Red Sox are the template for jamming your #3-#4 hitters into the DH and 1B/LF slots, and going from there.
I think Capt Jack has a real easy path his next contender here, and Manny/Ortiz Lite would surge about twenty yards towards paydirt.
Git 'R Done,
Dr D
....if you can save 8 mil on Johjima, the Mariners can spend it on plugging the DH hole with another Branyan-style bat without losing any of their other top players (that includes Bedard if he wants to talk extension).
I do not know if Johjima is really thinking about leaving the show...but he'd be doing the Mariners a huge favor if he did leave and I'm quite certain Zduriencik would know how to spend that money.
If they narrow their eyes a bit, make it clear that Johjima won't play and isn't especially welcome --as a Japanese team would not hesitate to do with an American they didn't plan to use --
Then Johjima would leave, PROVIDED that he can make decent $$ in Japan (including endorsements).
Taro? IceX? What is your guess as to Johjima's salary in Japan for 2010?
..signing Dunn does not mean we're building our offense at 1B and DH only...we already HAVE plus bats in CF, at 2B, and in RF...3 skill positions with plus bats. Having Branyan and Dunn in the line-up every day allows you to play your defense first game out there and get away with it on offense too. You can have Saunders in left field, RJ at C, Hannahan/Tui at third, Wilson at short all OPSing a combined 80 or 85 and you've still got a playoff caliber line-up anchored at the top half with RF) Ichiro CF) Gutierrez 1B Branyan DH Dunn 2B Lopez
This, I believe, gets at the largest obstacle toward making a move for Dunn, (or someone like him). It's not just the $8 million for Joh, or the $12 million for Silva in 2010 that is fouling the sails. It's that those salaries continue into 2011.
Clubs can, (and often do), accept a ONE-year budget increase to remedy a situation and pay for (literally), previous mistakes. But, this club has $20 million tied up in previous gaffes. With that $20 million, then you could be a bit braver on the FA market. Jack came in looking not only at 2009, but also 2010 and 2011. I bet you he's already looking at 2012 as we speak. 2012 is almost certainly a much lower priority -- but when you're signing multi-year, multi-million dollar deals, you BETTER be looking further than 18 months.
I don't think Z has much choice in regards to Silva. Unless he can offload "some" of that salary, I think Silva is certainly 2010 ballast -- and like Sexson, won't likely be completed tossed overboard until mid-2011, when it becomes clear that it is literally impossible to salvage anything from him. So, I think there's a good chance Silva will become the Batista of the past two seasons, a swing-man veteran arm out of the bullpen, you'd just as soon replace with a league minimum 23-year-old, but you can't.
The only question there is ... given the league leading defense ... if Silva REALLY is hurt, then it is possible that he could return and be effective. He HAS had success in the past (when backed up by a stellar defense). While I'd rather pay $12 million to Bedard than Silva, it's simply not an option.
One of the subtleties of the Beane successes in Oakland was that he retained "some" budgetary flexibility for use at the deadline. The As were constantly buyers at the deadline, and they could AFFORD to be, because they had a little room left over monetarily when they needed it. Divesting itself of the Johjima contract would go a long way toward creating that roster agility you need to fix your Ronny Cedeno situations without HAVING to throw Yahtzee on guys like Hannahan or Langerhans.
If Jack can pull this off, we should all bow down to the master. The difference for this team between having $16 million to spend and $24 million to spend in this market is huge.
The real difference between the Joh situation and the Sasaki situation was the shame that Sasaki visited upon himself, his family and the club (at least through the prism of the Japanese outlook) with his antics. There is none of that here, so Joh will not have that pressure to deal with. He is an honorable man.
++ It's not just the $8 million for Joh, or the $12 million for Silva in 2010 that is fouling the sails. It's that those salaries continue into 2011. Clubs can, (and often do), accept a ONE-year budget increase to remedy a situation and pay for (literally), previous mistakes. But, this club has $20 million tied up in previous gaffes. ++
And Seattle, specifically, has been sensitive to that.
Their budget flexes depending on how much they like a player, and 'averaging' a budget across 2 years isn't that big a deal.
$8M x 2 years would motivate the green-eyeshaders quite a bit. Great pernt.
... as making it easier for Joh to return to Japan, or easier for him to stay here Grizz?
As you put it that way ... easy to start likin' this team with a 275/400/550 lefthand 40 homers at DH, ain't it?
Find a LF bat for the middle of the lineup -- easiest position in the world to fill -- and suddenly you're scoring runs :- )
I am curious whether MLB teams take out disability insurance policies to cover their big contracts. I know it is done in business for key, high salaried employees. It seems that this would be perfect to address the Silva situation, making his $12M/yr sinkhole more palatable. Say the team gets $7M back for his absence, certainly a better return than him actually playing. That's money that can be productively spent to better the team.
Joh's salary is a sunk cost unless he's claimed on waivers (pleeeease, pleeeease), or he returns to Japan. All things considered, he isn't a bad back-up, no matter what the blogosphere says, but his salary does lock up a roster spot where a kid should be by maybe next spring.
Regardless of the bad contracts being carried forward, we have more bad contracts coming off the books: Wash (gone already), Batista (replace with a ~$400k kid), and Beltre (Not that he wasn't worth it, but even if re-signed, it will be for less. In any case, his slot is free.) There is room for Dunn or another big bat, plus more Dr. Z bargains.
is that they do insure the big contracts ... am guessing (and have heard) that it's in the nature of premium = 5% of contract for hitters, 10% for pitchers, claim = 50-75% of contract, provision = insure against injury, not usually performance.
About $7M sounds right, but the insurance company is well aware that Silva's not seriously injured. I don't think that you can collect for nonperformance, but ?
If one can use an iPhone app to get a prescription and supply of "medicinal" weed in CA for allergies, bruised ego, or torn hangnail, or players can get a prescription for HGH/PED from a dentist, then MLB teams should have no trouble with a disability claim for similar "injuries".
...the last tests they ran on him showed extensive swelling and hairline tears in his shoulder, Doc. You could make a case that Silva's arm is hanging by a thread and it will be very convincing when you show the insurance claims adjuster his statistical line and his 4 month DL stint.
We should be able to get at least 4 or 5 million back for the lost time THIS season.
Is getting 1.8 million a year with 200K in performance bonuses with Lotte for 3 years. He returned this last winter. He's hitting as well as he did in the past too.
I'd speculate that Joh would get a similar figure. Endorsements are negligible in Japan.
...finish out your career as a 200 AB bench bat making 16 mil or do us all a favor and go back to Japan where you'll make 4 mil and play every day as a returning MLB hero.
Hopefully they treat him with the same respect he showed the Ms when he signed the first bargain contract. Its not Joh's fault they decided to give him that awful extension.
That said, you could approach him and explain that he'd be a backup on the team in '10-'11 and if he wanted to return to the NPB you'd understand.
I don't think Joh wants to be the backup although the team is lot more fun than its been in the past.
FYI, we're 8 games back now. Who knows?
If an insurance company doesn't buy a sob story, for whatever reason, then it goes to arbitration or court. Wouldn't be fast to assume the M's could collect but considering youse guys' arguments, maybe there'd be a shot.
That gives us a feel for it.