Early on here, the keys-to-the-game have been:  Will he get the foot back on the fastball ... will he throw with plus command ... is the offspeed game for real ... can he execute his game consistently.

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5 ER:  How did he lose?

A: The way he'll always lose, I imagine ... he made two mistakes that were crushed for home runs.  (The third home run was about 328 feet, just inside the foul poul just over the fence, and I'm thinking that Gutierrez would have had to come IN on it if it were hit to center.  LOL.)

The two homers were mistakes with a capital M:  87-88 fastballs, letter high, easily tatered by weak KC hitters.

Still, Fister gave up 9 fly balls and 33% cleared the fence.  He was two or three inches from a shutout, saber-luck-ifically speaking.  :- )

If he's in a rotation, he's going to lose 12 games a year, and most will come on days when he gets tatered.

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Key 1:  Did he get the foot back on the fastball?

A:  Yes and no.  He didn't clock in all that great, but Dr. D became more comfortable with his velocity.

Brooks had him at 88.1 on all 32 fastballs of every type, which sounds respectable, but he threw a lot of 86's and 87's.

But!  You know what I did like -- when he wanted velo, he could throw 89 at will.   We began to realize that he throws 86 when he's really painting, right on the black.   Mad Dog used to pitch somewhat similarly.

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1a:  How was the movement?

A.  Not what it was in the first two starts.   Second start in a row, I didn't feel his arm had a lot of juice in it.

This is probably late in the year for him, and for French, for that matter.

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Key 2:  How was the command?

A.  Again not up to the first two starts, I didn't think.  For whatever reason, he was throwing MANY fastballs high in the zone.

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Key 3:  How was the change and curve?

A.  The change was parachuting just the way it has in all four of his starts.  That is looking like a legit plus-plus, "70" pitch.

He threw 44 changeups in 86 pitches!   Hilarious.   And he often threw it with a weird little overhand snap of the wrist, like a slider...

..............

The change-curve that I love so much looked like an Aaron Sele hammer.  He fanned the game's leadoff hitter with it -- neatly worked to 1-2 (IIRC) and then broke off a Sele curve that fanned the poor sap easily.

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Q.  Any new insights on Doogie?

A.  Fangraphs' pitch values have shown up, after 20 innings... check it again tomorrow...

FB -1.7 runs per 100 pitches

CH +4.8 runs per 100 pitches

CB +4.7 runs per 100 pitches

You'll have to explain to me how a pitcher throws 4.7 runs better than average, when the league itself averages about 3.9 runs per 7 innings.  :- )

Doogie may be one of those guys, like Sele, Hershiser, Blyleven, Weaver, Radke, Moyer, etc ... who "shows" the fastball only to get to his other pitches.

If that be the case -- if the FB is going to be for show, I like his chances -- because the FB is (frequently) well-located and moving very well.

...........

Q.  Overall?

A.  Looked like Doogie further demonstrated the ability to consistently execute his game.

We Shandler disciples don't look at ER to determine QS.  We look at IP, K, BB, K/BB, and HR.   Doogie had a 4/5 PQS.

I notice that Fister's K/BB is 18/7 on the year, and over his last three starts it's 13/2.   Let me read that sentence again:  his last three starts, he's gone deep, and has run that infamous 0+ BB ratio with 6 strikeouts a game.

Got to avoid the taters, and if so, look out.

Cheers,

Dr D