=== THE GOOD ===
French's changeup was working, for this one game anyway, as effectively as Jamie Moyer's. For the first five innings.
Time and again he drove toward the plate, pulled the string, and the Indians put garbage swings on it. Five of the 6 strikeouts, IIRC, were swinging, at the change.
Several swings-and-misses were at low-away dead fish changeups in the Moyer mold. An early swing-and-miss was at a REALLY good change right down the middle, at the knees. Another one was teed up, but was so good that a Cleveland scrub swung right through it.
The last couple of batters, they started lining it around the park, creating an asterisk: maybe it's a first-time-around the league thing.
But let's not quibble. French's change was good enough to build a quality start around.
.............
The fastball was 88-89, a tick above that, now and then. It was lifeless and as limp as Randy Johnson's hair in Texas in August, but it was not 85. It was plenty fast enough to keep the Rangers from sitting in-between.
There were two occasions when the fastball looked crisp: once he threw it by Kelly Shoppach, up in the zone at 88, and Shoppach (looking offspeed) was way behind. I think he broke his bat over his knee. But, that fastball had late explosion.
Another time, French got on top of the fastball, threw it downhill, at the knees -- it hit 90 and had nice life on it. Wow. A sharp fastball from Luke French. Cool.
That's Adair's thing, to get on top and throw downhill, and on one (1) pitch French illustrated that it is possible, for him, to do so. And it was a difference-maker! That one fastball looked like a Jeff Fassero fastball.
................
The velo didn't seem to tail off. I mean, in the middle of the game, he started throwing a couple of 85's, but then later he was back to 89. So, okay.
................
Don't get carried away. :- ) The legit swings-and-misses tonight were at changeups. The two or three swings-and-misses at FB's were flukish, Shoppach having two of them, and he looked like swill tonight.
................
Rob Johnson, I thought, deserved a ton of credit on this one. I could never guess what was coming next.
It's extremely tough for us fans to tell when the catcher's outsmarting the hitters and when he isn't, but I'm guessing this was one of the "he is" 's.
.
=== THE BAD ===
Even at 88-89 the fastball makes me cringe. Garrett Olson has a considerably more lively heater.
.............
The slider was only okay, and unfortunately it was at the same speed as the change, with a similar shape.
That's the alarming thing for me, because earlier this season it was precisely the wicked hook that had me thinking Fister might be something other than a cookie-cutter AAA lefty.
...............
You know what's weird? The arm action on French's change looks weak to me. On his fastball, he snaps his hand through and you can see the back of his hand. On the change, you see the palm of his hand at the finish ... and we could go on.
But don't you worry about Dr. D. The Indians' swings told a different story. (Let's hope it's not a different, "different story" the second time through the league...)
..............
French did, after all, give up 8 hits and had one cleared the fence, he'd have given up more than just 3 runs (to a team that has quit).
Still: he struck out six guys and his stuff was a lot better. You think Rick Adair is one of those pitching coaches who coaches pitchers?
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=== THE UGLY ===
The Indians were an ideal matchup for French.
Just for example, they had 900+ strikeouts coming into the game, compared to (say) the Mariners' 798.
The Indians are a very free-swinging team, and guess what else, they have mailed in the season. They're not exactly going up there with a lot of malice aforethought.
French was in trouble some, the first 4-5 batters, and then he threw a change and got a garbage swing and ... HEEEYyyyyyyyy! It was like it dawned on him. For the rest of the game he tortured the thoughtless, too-aggressive Tribe with marshmallow S'mores.
................
Dr. D didn't pick the SSI moniker, but hey. We'll roll with it. Unless we get buried in paper cups. ::sheepish::
.................
Wok, who is the greatest rookie manager I've ever seen in baseball, was very measured in his praise for French after the game. "We saw ... um ... improvement. He battled, and wound up giving us a solid start."
My own cornball Skip-O-Vision translation of him was, "Well, guys, we'll see what we can do with him." Personally, I strongly suspect that Wok knows that French is a dime-a-dozen lefty who doesn't differ in much degree from, say Olson.
But, Capt Jack sees it differently.
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=== BOTTOM LINE ===
French fans got a very encouraging start.
The changeup was a strikeout pitch, and French's heater was -- crucially -- enough to keep them honest.
It gives French backers reason to hope that he can compete.
BABVA,
Dr D
Hy Doctor,
I'm a m's fans from Italy.
I found out looking at the standings (yeah I know it's dumb to do so but.........) that we are the 3rd best AL team on the road behind only the Angels and the Yankees.
Can you explain me why?
I've read a lot of times about this team being built to take advantege of Safeco Field.
Thank you very much.
I don't think the start can be discounted too much by way of saying Cleveland has already given up, they did torch the Ms (and the better part of their playoff chances) for 30 runs in 3 games a couple weeks ago. They may not be playing anything close to meaningful baseball, but there's still contracts, pride, and the hometown crowd, plus, not getting embarassed by a 23 year old nobody. By the way, Fister was getting his name mentioned a whole bunch considering he isn't the one that pitched tonight.
Although the Mariners are set up to take advantage of Safeco as much as possible, there are a number of players who are having much better years on the road than at home. Jose Lopez (though most of that is bad luck), Adrian Beltre (and that's real), Franklin Gutierrez (although he's hitting pretty well at home all things considered) and Mike Sweeney (yes...really)...plus now we have Bill Hall and of course there's the Rob Johnson/Kenji Johjima catching tag team, both of whom are right handed and better set up to hit on the road than at home.
Basically...we're an 85 OPS+ team at home and a 100 OPS+ team on the road...the pitching and defense are good on both sides of the ledger...the hitter is only good on the road.
Fister is a good major league pitcher. French is probably not. Argh! :)
Wishful thinking on my part.
Just sell it without tax, more like.
The Indians are (a) overaggressive, (b) flat and (c) hitting without a plan .... but then, half the teams that everybody faces right now are playing demoralized.
Not trying to say the start wasn't encouraging, though I do believe that the matchup was ideal. Call it an asterisk, not a discount.
If we could turn French into Fister...I would be very much happy.
Oh good grief.
French was slightly better than Fister in AAA this year (MUCH better SwS%), and good at the MLB-level at Detroit. Fister so far has shown promise in a single MLB start.
I have no idea why this POTD ticked me off a little, but it has. The Fister love and French hate is extreme. Both of these guys interest me (Fister after his last start), French interests me slightly more. We'll see how things play out with guys. Hopefully they both pan out.
... kiddin' around in the comments here Taro. :- )
French will get his chance to prove us all wrong. And Fister's had two good starts. Take a breath compadre.
I just think the stances on Fister and French are extreme on this site. Lets give French a shot, you're giving Fister one.
...I don't run the team. But you can get that if I *did* run the team, Fister would be ahead of French on my depth chart. Fister has "it"...I can't explain it statistically this time, but he has something that French does not. French feels like a white-knuckle ride when he pitches...there's something about him on the mound that makes me think disaster is imminent. Fister...I feel like the game is well under control.
Not trying to pile on, and not trying to beat a dead horse.
But both pitchers are interesting, so they're getting airtime...
And as far as being extreme vs. French, the article above is precisely how I saw the game. It includes everything positive that I saw. What can I say, bud.
Yes, but I think you may be looking for positives with Fister and looking for negatives with French.
I remember Sandy warning us about this with Jaku vs Olson earlier in the year. Jaku had a better fastball and much better command, but as of yet the breaking pitches just aren't fooling anybody. I still like Jaku's long-term value way better especially if he develops the breakers, but Sandy was right, both ended up being awful and our extreme valuations of them were dead wrong (at least this year).
My take on French vs Fister? French has better stats over the year and better stuff, Fister looks like he has better command. Its hard cause we only have a have only had a handful of starts judge them by, but right now both of 'em look like potential MOR/BOR starters. We'll get to see more as the year goes on.
Fister throws just as hard and with significant running action on his fastball (late life) compared to French's limp noodle-ball. Fister has a plus plus change-up that he can throw to either side of the plate, French's change-up is here-again-gone-again...sometimes good, sometimes horrid. Fister throws a nice drop-down curve to both lefties and righties, though it's not amazingly good. French's slider can only be used as a weapon against lefties. He never wants to throw it against righties.
Since 75% of the league is right handed, Fister is better against 75% of the league than French (stuff-wise). French's stuff will appear better only when used out of the bullpen as a LOOGY.
French has good life on the fastball. I don't agree with Doc here. Its one of the first things I noticed about him and you can check his pitch f/x to see that he indeed has rising movement and movement into left handers on the heater. They throw about the same mph, but French is lefty giving him the advantage.
I like French's offspeed better as well, when his slider is right its a plus-plus pitch that he can throw to both handed hitters. Got a couple swinging strike off of rightes yesterday on that pitch though it hasn't been as sharp with Seattle and I believe he could afford to throw it more often. His change has been better than advertised.
Fister looked great in his last start, but it was just one start. We need to see if he consistently has that change and command. In AAA French missed more than twice as many bats, and has been fairly effective at the MLB level for a few starts now (with healthy SwS% despite what many perceive as lack of stuff).
French has better stuff, and Fister has better command from what little I've seen of them.
and we'll see.
I ever remember disagreeing so vigorously with you about any pitcher, Taro. Very cool.
I don't know why the charts indicate that French's FB has some life, and don't buy that. Of the 8 hits last night, 6 must have been batting-practice line drives right into the pull field, off the FB.
But we'll keep arguing until the pitchers provide the answers... :- )
Again, I think you're focusing on the negative with French. He had some whiffs on that heater as well.
I guess we will see. If you wanted to re-sign Jarrod Washburn, I'm not at all sure why you aren't interested in French. Hes Washburn with a better offspeed game, but has been getting squeezed by the umps like Fister.
Why do you keep insisting thta Fister has only had one good looking start. He's had two good looking starts that looked good for the same reasons.
I don't get the "distance" in perception of French and Fister, considering their minor league lines are NOT that disperate. Both seemed to have a quantum leap THIS YEAR in AAA that showed drastic improvement over previous performance. BOTH were called up by their teams.
Detroit called French up, and he had success. No, he wasn't fanning 9 guys a game. He was striking out almost exactly the level that Shandler points as "minimum competence" for MLB pitchers.
French 2009 AAA: 82-IP; 72-K; 20-BB; 6-HR;
Fister 2009 AAA : 106-IP; 79-K; 11-BB; 10-HR;
Fister showed remarkably better control, but French actually shows BETTER "dominance" in AAA this year. If one of the two appears to have better "stuff" from a statistical analysis, it's French, not Fister. If one looks "rawer" in terms of harnessing his stuff, it's also French.
The thing that intrigues me about Fench is simple. In his (very small) MLB sample, he HASN'T had the HR problems that Olson had from day one and that Vargas shows, also. If French's stuff is so weak, then where are the dingers?
There is also the fact that French is TWO (2) YEARS younger. Yet, the general tone from both Matt and the Doc is that French has nothing to offer, and will never have anything to offer, while Fister has a lot of upside. I can't recall a time when a 25 and 23 year old ANYTHING arrived at the majors with similar pedigrees simultaneously and the 25-year-old was the one everyone was tagging for greatness.
Okay -- eyes on examination of Fister says "better stuff", while French scouting says "meh". But, how did they look in their final 10 AAA games this year?
French Ks: 7,2,3,2,6,8,1,8,10,8
Fister Ks: 4,4,5,5,2,2,2,6,5,0
Okay, Doc ... Fister "looks" better to you. I'm thinking thinking the AAA hitters would beg to differ. Final 10 AAA games, Fister has a high of 6 Ks ONCE. French fans at least 6 in 6 of his final 10 games, with a trio of 8-k games, and a 10-k game. The guy pitching to contact is Fister. Me? I don't care if French looks like Phoebe Bufay on the mound ... if he's consistently fanning 6+ guys per start.
Honestly, I expect both are equally capable of becoming "F"-bombs any day. Fister, having superior control SHOULD be more consistent. But, based on his AAA numbers, I think he's also the more likely to get blown up badly when he's off. My "statistical" sense is that French has stuff that's harder to center. But, this is based on a very small 2009 AAA sample. No clue as to whether it's deception, change of speed, late movement. But, the NUMBERS say that French is harder to hit hard than Fister. Fister, however, with his superior control, doesn't hurt himself with walks.
Like Taro ... I don't get the rather extreme tone in Fister friendliness compared to French hostility.
Fister may have a signature weapon (plus-plus command) or even two (the changeup).
French has no plus weapon and is therefore a AAAA pitcher until proven otherwise.
Y'all are bringing the emotion, not me. :- )
I've got nothing against Lucas French. Any more than against Garrett Olson or Cha Baek or Ken Cloude.
French does have a plus weapon (the slider)...but I agree with your point in general. I think French, even if he has better stuff, has an inferior pitching mind. Fister is my kind of soft prospect. I'll take ten pitchable, intelligent and composed junkballers before I take one pitcher who, if he really desperately tries might some day be Jarrod Washburn.
I'd say French's slider is plus-plus. 6 swinging strikes on his slider the last outing out of only 21 total pitches. Apparently Adair made an adjustment and he was throwing his slider with harder velocity as well last outing (80.9mph according to Jeff at LL). French needs to start throwing that pitch more often. He could afford to bump his percentage up to 25-30%, the change around 15-20%, and the fastball around 50-55%.
And ya, if Fister showed the quality change-up again last night then his stock starts to rise. It really confuses me why MLB hitters are whiffing so much more at his stuff than the AAA hitters did. The only logical explanation to me is that Fister wasn't throwing his change as much in AAA as he is in the majors. Maybe hes made a recent improvement with that pitch, or maybe its partly a hot streak.
... then he met with Adair*, came on the radio and said it was his fourth pitch, and he hasn't thrown it much, it seems like. I'm not blaming Adair, of course.
Not sure that Fister IS getting disproportionate results in the majors, amigo. That sensational 7+ CTL and 0+BB's keep getting overlooked.
He was getting 7K's despite never going outside the zone whatsoever. That's pretty good bat miss-age. :- )