I love taking fliers like this as long as we aren't giving up anything significant and Milwaukee eats the rest of the deal. Zero risk, High reward. Hall can play a respectable middle infield, and worse case scenario hes a nice little platoon/bench player in the middle of the field. Its not an Ian Snell situation where you're giving up a former top prospect for the guy, he'll probably cost nothing right?
My first reaction to his hitting decline that this is might be an example of a hitter getting scouted and failing to adjust (like Johjima) as well some combination of bad luck. His peripherals aren't all that out of whack..his O-Swing% has gone up a tad and hes lost a good deal of pop from his prime.
The good news is that it probably isn't steroid related since his HRs are still averaging well over 400 feet. Hes got significantly more pop than a guy like Lopez and plays a tad better in the field.
I say why not if it doesn't cost much of anything? I like taking chances on guys with upside like this, and the downside is that hes a very useful backup player.
Q. What are his chances to get back to where he was?
A. The very fact that Capt Jack is going after him, is SOME indication that there's a chance to get Hall back to where he was.
Hall's problems aren't bad luck. It's not like his BABIP or HR/F or whatever is going to just revert and boom, you've got a hitter again. Hall is actually hitting bad. He's probably lucky that his BABIP is as high as it is (.270).
Does Zduriencik have the key to unlock Hall's problems, the way that Pat Gillick had the key to Arthur Rhodes' success? Tune in next week.
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Q. Does D-O-V like Hall's chances?
A. Not one little bit.
Hall, in 2005 and 2006 when he was 25 and 26, was a minor star in the National League, slugging .500 and then .550 from the shortstop position. Beautiful! He's Hanley Ramirez, right?
Not quite. In retrospect you can see 2006 as an outlier. It seems strange to think of a young player coming up, being great at 25-26, and then not continuing the normal development arc from there.
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Q. A development arc that falls off at age 26?
A. Sure. Some guys don't have that development arc that is shaped like a tee shot in golf. Some guys have fast starts and then hit the windshield like a bug. Kal Daniels, Cesar Cedeno, Joe Charboneau and Ruben Sierra were among the many players who hit much better before age 26 than after.
It sure looks weird to see a player storm the league in his early 20's, be one of the best players in the majors, and then be a mediocrity from age 27 on. But it happens quite a bit. You could find 20, or 50, or 100 guys like that.
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Q. Why is that?
A. It can be substances, or it can be a fatal flaw in the player's game, or a misleading birth certificate, or a lot of things.
Bill Hall always had a terrible K/BB ratio. Hall is one more warning to keep your eye on EYE.
Very few players escape Hall's 0.30 EYE to be good hitters, and when they do, there's a good reason -- like maybe they're 6'6", 250. Hall was always just a 175-lb. shortstop who happened to hit 35 homers one year.
I don't consider Hall to be in a (three-year) slump. I just wonder how much of a hitter he ever was.
Capt Jack saw him closer than we did of course :- ) and maybe he knows different.
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Q. How about in a platoon?
A. He has a normal platoon split, better against LHP's, but it's not like he mashes LHP's. He's 245/275/415 vs lefties this year, though 300/370/520 against them last year.
You could salvage some value from Hall by using him as a platoon backup infielder who hits 20% of the pitchers in the league. :- / In concert with Hannahan or somebody, he could give you 150 AB's next year at the 300/370/500 type level.
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Hall's last two weeks, he's played three games, slugging >500 with three hits and a home run, so he's not swinging the bat terribly right this second.
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Q. So, prognosis?
A. For D-O-V, Hall's a writeoff, but that doesn't mean there's any harm in picking him up.
He can play third for a while, and at least he does give you that 10% chance of recapturing some of his former glory. Hannahan doesn't have a 35-homer year in his past, so...
Even if Hall tears it up for three weeks, it won't mean much for Dr. D's shtick, but you know what they say...
Hey, why not,
Dr D
Comments
Nice to see him hit some 400+ footers.
No harm done in taking a flier, agreed, though with that K/BB and his being a smaller guy, and the amount of downtime in the NL now, I'm not expecting much...
I've tried to come up with different reasons why Bill Hall might hit again.
1) He had a hamstring injury in early May, just when his hitting declined this year, and just hasn't recovered yet.
2) Like the above comment, he got scouted and hasn't adjusted, but the M's can make those adjustments.
3) The environment in Milwaukee wasn't conducive to his continued success but Seattle will be.
None of these hold water. We know the true Bill Hall. He's declined into a AAAA platoon hacker with good (not great) defense. Since he was cheap, this was an O.K. deal to shore up our dearth of depth while Beltre and Wilson recover but Bill Hall will not re-flip-out nor should he be counted on to do so. This is not a big deal and doesn't really help the team terribly much.
That's not to say I don't hope he does. Re-reading my post, it sounded a bit negative. I hope he re-flips-out. I just don't think that it's likely.
I agree with you. I don't downgrade him for being smaller since he has the power, but I wouldn't 'expect' him to breakout.
A breakout scenario isn't likely but its nice to know that that upside scenario is possible. A platoon bench player that can give you above-average D at 3b and 2B and can play SS respectably is a nice piece too, especially at the price. A Hannahan/Hall platoon with Tui breathing on their shoulders opens up some money for 1B (probably Branyan) and DH next year.
Ruben Sierra's career flatlined because of a combination of poorly administered steroids that collapsed his stroke and illicit drug use. Is Bill Hall enjoying the wrong kind of Coke after games and shooting up horse steroids? I kind of doubt it.
Cesar Cedeno did have two huge years very early in his career before the league adjusted to his approach, but from age 23 to age 34...he was essentially the same hitter right on down the line in terms of OPS+.
according to our hero Ron Shandler.
MLB teams are constantly giving chances and more chances to players who have glory in their past, precisely because some guys do crawl out of the coffin.
Hall *did* have a 35 homer season not long ago. To GM's, that makes him a different proposition than, say, Jack Hannahan.
aren't comps to Bill Hall. They're just illustrations of the broadest possible point that not all arcs look like golf shots.
But if the question is, "Could you find other guys who had good years at 25-26 and then fell off the map?", the answer is, "of course."
If that's NOT the question, then your post is a quibble.
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I get so I hate to say anything casual, without carefully explaining it, because the moment something TIC or loosely-spoken is halfway debatable, BOOM I'm in a court of law. :- )
...your argument shouldn't have been "are there players who have good years at 25/26 and then disappear for ANY reason?" but "Are their players who have good years before 26 and then lose their skill for playing baseball without any particular reason?" The answer is STILL yes. E5 Hinske, Angel Berroa, Adrian Beltre...of the top of my head...had career years before 26 and never reappeared at that level.
Was 2006 an outlier? Yes. But, it's interesting to me that he set SIGNIFICANT career best in HRs, Walks and Ks. In 2005, he had 17 HRs, 39-BB, 103-K in 546-PA. That jumped to 35, 63, 162 in 608. He changed his APPROACH. To me, it is painfully obvious that he went from being a guy simply trying to hit the ball hard ... to a guy TRYING to hit HRs. And for 2006, it worked.
But, the following year, pitchers adjusted. He didn't have the same success, but he had gotten his OPS up to .798 in early July, and then got HURT. I think after the injury, something changed, and since the INJURY in mid-2007, he's been attempting to be that HR-hitter of 2005, (which was the definition of a career year), and it's screwed him up mentally.
If he's going to succeed, it is NOT by trying to hit HRs. He needs to return to simply trying to hit the ball hard, and accept the HRs that his inate power gets him. He's a guy whose TALENT says, he's got 60 points of patience, and can run a 200 ISO. His K count is going to always be high, but a .250/.310/.450 line seems VERY doable to me. A .760 OPS isn't going to excite anyone, (nobody gets excited these days for any OPS below .800). But, Hall was also forced to change positions EVERY year. Prior to his 2006 abberation, he was splitting time between all the infield positions. In 2006, he played 126 games at short. In 2007, he played 130 games in the OF. In 2008, he played 113 games at 3B.
His ISO is way, way down this year. But, I believe it's because he's just all screwed up mentally. I have no idea what Milwaukee was ASKING him to do at the plate. But, I have confidence that Seattle will say simply -- try to have good at bats -- hit the ball hard, (but don't worry about HRs, we'll take what you produce, and Safeco won't help) -- and don't worry about the Ks too much.
I'm with Doc, that this is a cheap long-shot roll of the dice, that *probably* won't work out. But, if you want an example of a shooting star that flamed out ... was written off by EVERYONE, but has subsequently resurrected a dead career ... I give Fernando Tatis. It's POSSIBLE to return. But, I suspect that the players that have this kind of fall-off, are the very ones least likely to be able to SUSTAIN a career. My take? He might have a bounce back to 2005 or 2007 form ... but will be unlikely to sustain that production over time.
I mean Suddenly it looks like their is actually depth at the SS roster and cost the M's practically nothing. In the short term you have a better bat then Hannahan on 3b but the small chance that you have a impact 35 hr bat at SS is interesting even if the obp is .350.
For those paying attention, the tuning of the argument to non-drugs, non-birth certif players would have been more relevant. :- )
Assuming that we know Hall to be outside those boxes...
I just went and looked...Bill Hall's career Pitches/PA: 4.04...yes ANOTHER player with well above average at-bat grinding skills.
Your starting line-up could now look something like:
RF) Ichiro (3.6)
1B) Branyan (4.0)
2B) Lopez (3.5)
DH) Griffey (4.1)
CF) Gutierrez (4.0)
3B) Hall (4.0)
C) Johnson (4.1 since the end of May)
SS) Ja. Wilson (3.7)
LF) Saunders (3.6)
With a bench that includes:
IF) Hannahan (4.0)
C) Johjima (3.2 but he was stuck with this roadkill)
DH) Sweeney (3.5)
OF) Langerhans (4.1)
Zduriencik's acquisitions have almost all be long-pitch guys who don't fear hitting in deep counts.
I still have a hunch that Tui is going to take the 3B position in ST next spring. All the guy has been hearing for the last three years was hitting. Now he's hearing defense. I wouldn't put it past him to take 3,000 grounders in the off season and come into camp a better defender.
Regardless, 3B is patched for 2010. Between Hall, Hannahan and Tui it's covered and covered cheap. Can't under estimate the importance of that. It gives Jack the $$ to spend on a slugging 1B and DH. Maybe a LH power guy for the pen.
That whatever happens at 3B, they can plan on zero dollars there, and hopefully spend some $ elsewhere.
You could say the same about some other positions, that they're covered for not much money, such as several rotation slots and catcher if Joh goes home.
Yes...the Mariners have at least 16 roster spots filled next year for 1.8 mil or less per slot. I'll walk through it once again:
Catchers:
Rob Johnson (400K)
Adam Moore (400K)
Infielders:
Jose Lopez (1.6M)
Jack Hannahan (400K - I'm assuming they stick with him)
Bill Hall (small amount of 8.6M)
Matt Tuiasosopo (400K)
Outfielders:
Dustin Ackley (1.5M - including prorates signing bonus)
Michael Saunders (500K) or Ryan Langerhans (700K arbitration estimate)
Franklin Gutierrez (1.5M arbitration estimate)
Starters:
Ryan Rowland-Smith (450K)
Brandon Morrow (400K)
Doug Fister (400K)
Swing Starters:
Luke French (400K)
Garrett Olson (500K)
Chris Jakubauskas (400K)
Relievers:
David Aardsma (1.2M arbitration estimate)
Mark Lowe (450K)
Shawn Kelley (400K)
Sean White (400K)
Robert Manuel (400K)
Josh Fields (400K)
Cesar Jimenez (400K)
etc etc etc
By my estimation we have:
C1, C2, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF, OF4, IF5, spare bat, 3 starting rotation slots and possibly a 4th, and the entire 7-man bullpen signed for free or darned cheap. That's 20 out of 25 roster slots if we can dump Johjima off to Japan somehow. SS is expensive, Felix is getting expensive, Silva is expensive and might get SP5 if he can do ANYTHING...otherwise he's just 12 million worth of fat and sitting at home, and 1B and DH will be filled by free agency with Carp an option if we want to save money to acquire someone like Dunn.
The substance or the formatting.
:- )
We don't have RF for cheap...duh. I don't know what I was thinking...LOL
The expensive positions on this roster are RF (Ichiro), SP5 (Silva), Please Leave (Johjima), SS (Wilson), DH (Free Agent), SP1 (King Felix is a bargain though even if he gets 7-10 mil in arby) and 1B (Branyan).
18 cheap payroll slots, 7 expensive ones. Could that *BE* any more S&S oriented? Well it could be if two of the expensive payroll slots didn't completely suck (Silva and Johjima)...maybe one of those two will go away. :)