Mariners 9, Indians 4

=== Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx ===

Lopez hit another one out, down the line, and this one he clocked pretty good.  As if he'd gotten up and read the blog this morning (I know, I know) and said, well okay, Dr. Dimento.

They said that Lopez came out for batting practice this afternoon and decided to put on a show, hitting a barrage of long balls "wayyyyyyyyy out in the seats to left field."

Which illustrates that Jose Lopez has a lot more natural power than, say, Jack Hannahan or somebody.  The kid is 6'2", 200, bigger than Mays or Aaron.  As we've opined a time or six, all it would take is for Lopez to decide to put more keister on the ball.

Today's jack had to have cleared the fence by 50 feet.

.................

Hey, you know what?  Lopez might only hit his HR's out by 10, 20, 30 feet -- but I'll bet you dollars to donuts that he will be the exception to the rule here.

The rule being Hardball Times' discovery that the guys who hit cheap HR's in year 1, will see HR's drop way off in year 2.

Lopez, I bet you, could hit "cheap" home runs his whole life -- because he pulls the ball so extremely consistently.  (Juan Gonzalez, Vlad Guerrero and Kenji Johjima, among many others, have been players who hit their whole careers by banging the ball right down the LF line.)

Yeah, okay, so his last dozen homers have been five rows deep to straightaway left.  :- ) But guess where his next dozen will go, too? 

...................

After tonight, Jose has 17 homers and 75 RBI, which pro-rates to 23 HR and 103 RBI. 

Last year, he had 12 homers and 43 RBI's in only 67 games in the second half, causing me to wonder whether he'd go .290-27-100 this year.

Turns out that he'll finish close to that, but like the young Miguel Tejada, he'll post a nice Triple Crown AVG-HR-RBI line without posting much of an OPS+.   Tejada used to go .270-30-110, with only a 110 OPS+.   That did not mean he was a lousy batter, now.  :- )

.

=== Bill Hall ===

I liked his swing a lot more than I expected to.

He actually gets an exaggerated torque on the ball, as if he had a double-jointed back or something.   The hips snap violently wayyyyyy around out in front, while the whole shoulderline stays back .... and yet Hall's head and eyes remain fairly steady.

....................

On the first hit, off a changeup, he coiled nicely but then GOLF-SWAYYYYED at the precisely worst moment and lost his centrifugal energy.  So he had me wondering. 

But then, the one he smoked to RF, he did stay back and rotate around the hub of his spine.  And the ball got to the deep RCF fence in a real hurry.

Turns out, on that first AB, he was just reaching for the outside changeup (and he did get the sweet spot out to the ball).

.....................

And the bat's pretty quick.  ... And, he's working the zone.  I kind of blinked.   THIS is the guy who's hitting .200?

Not in this game, baby.  Hall smoked two line shots, one down the LF line and one to the right-center wall.  His SF fly RBI was deliberately lofted to right field in classic fashion.

Just one game, but a sweet game.

...................

Now don't get us wrong here.  If the choice -- for UT IF -- is between Bill Hall and Willie Bloomquist or Ronny Cedeno, then of course we want to take a shot at trying to find the past glory.

Hall, an ex-star who is joining a strange team/league as a substitute, was charming, humble, and likeable on the postgame.

You go amig-O,

Dr D



Comments

1

I commented yesterday about Zduriencik's unstoppable lust for 4 P/PA hitters.  Gutierrez, Hannahan, Lnagerhans, Griffey, Branyan, and now Hall.  I think a hitter is more likely to find himself again after a bad stretch if he does the one thing a hitter can always do to defend himself in the big leagues against any pitcher...work the count and put up a pro at bat.  You don't have a career 4 P/PA without the ability to put up a hard fought AB.
Every time Z grabs some guy off the scrap heap from now on, that is the first stat I'm looking at.  I really think Hall is going to surprise you.

2

So I've been thinking about Jose some more and I must say he is a bit confounding.  At fangraphs they breakdown a players performance versus different pitch types and Jose is all over the map, with no clear pitch type trends.
For instance, the statistics support the eyes regarding Adrian Beltre.  He just can't hit anything that bends.  I think this is why he hasn't developed.  He can't sit on his pitch because he is completely at the mercy of a pitcher with a average or better breaking ball.  Jose doesn't have this fatal flaw.  Last year the slider was his weakness, but this year it's the fastball.  Does this jibe with people's impression?  I think it was Jason Churchill who said he thought Jose struggled with good heat, but this is totally contrary to your view of him Doc.  I frankly think Jose is the most intriguing player on the M's right now.

3

...Lopez has a noticeable (though not super-severe) platoon split against power pitchers.  For msot of his career, he has indeed had trouble with good fastballs, though I do not think it's because he can't hit a good fastball.  I think he struggles against pitchers with good fastballs because he chases balls out of the zone too much if they are straight.  He is so uber-confident in his ability to hit the high fastball that he will routinely swing at the high fastball even when it is helmet high.  And the crazy part is...he usually makes contact. :)  Though 9 times out of ten, it's a lazy fly to left.

5

Check his B-Ref page, click more stats in the hitting section, scroll down to Pitch Summary, smile.
4.04 P/PA career for Hall.

6

That's why the smartest guys around, you and James and Epstein and everybody else, chase the game around for 20, 30, 40 years and it's just as fresh as when we started.  Chess got flat for me; baseball didn't.
Ballplayers can't really be predicted.  I for one am not much closer to understanding Jose Lopez than when we started.  :- )

7

So why doesn't he walk?
That's the first time I've ever even thought about the idea of a guy with low BB's and high P/PA's.   That sounds as unlikely as a pitcher with low pitch counts but high K's.
Quite a catch there Matty.  Explain the BB vs P/PA thing to me?

8

I haven't seen enough Hall ABs to know why he is only an average walker (he does have 60 points of ISO-Pat...it's not like he's Jose Lopez out there...he just strike out an awful lot so the EYE is horrid.  Why is Hall striking out so much?  Maybe he has a good eye but when he gets his pitch, his swing is too long/slow?

9

Presumably his P/PA are high *because* he strikes out?
Would his P/PA be typical for hitters with his K% and BB%?

10

Beltre strikes out a lot and his P/PA is a career 3.50 or so.  So no...that's not a given.  Strikeouts do take more pitches to record than contact outs on average so it's conceivable that Hall's P/PA is high because he's working the count TOO much...getting 1-2 a lot instead of being aggressive on early pitch strikes.

11
Taro's picture

Lopez' HRs are definetly extremely to the pull-side.
I do think he'll stay in that 15-20 HRs range in his prime if he can maintain a solid FB%. '09 is probably an up year power-wise, but you never know considering Lopez' great CT% and rising FB%.

12

Beltre is a contact hitter.  There's a lot of differences between him and Bill Hall in the Batter's Box.  Adrian Beltre makes contact more often (76%, 80%, 76%  compared to 74%, 74%, 69% over the last 3 years), when he makes contact, Adrian is more likely to put the ball in play when he makes contact (31%, 33%, 35% to 26%, 24%, 24%), and swings at pitches outside the strikezone more often (37%, 34%, 38% to 25%, 27%, 25%), and when they do swing out of the zone, Adrian makes a lot more contact again (63%, 68%, 58% to 54%, 56%, 53%).  Here's the one that just caught me by surprise, Bill Hall swings at the first pitch more often (36%, 33%, 36% to 28%, 28%, 29%).  But still, I think the higher p/PA for Bill Hall is built on greater patience and less contact skill.  Franklin Gutierrez has a similar p/PA to Hall, but contact rates more similar to Beltre, though he almost never swings at a first pitch (11%, 12%, 10%) compared to the other two.

13

Hall seems to be a player who has lots of patience and can work the count, but then he doesn't have enough skill for hitting the ball when he decides to swing.  So he takes some walks but pitchers know they can "give in" to Hall when they get behind in the count and there's a decent chance he'll miss the ball anyway.

15

Don't look now, but Jose now has a positive UZR for the 5th time in 6 seasons.  I wonder what his statistics would be like if he could actually field :)

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