June 2014
One-offs from the Mainframe
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/14
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10 runs off McHugh*
The kid looks like a young Mike Mussina to me. That was a terrific offensive performance, off a young star who was making good pitches. It wasn't about an off day by McHugh; it was about a very impressive night by the M's lineup.
The local nine seems is gaining momentum as the season goes along. And as a completely separate issue, here are the Wild Card standings.
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Mike "All-Star" Zunino
Zunino being an underrated player, whose skills are tough to perceive, and playing in Seattle, I think we can safely forget about his being in the All-Star game. Unless you give the... Read More
Dr. D sweating cannonballs early on
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/14
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With two outs gone in the fourth inning, Marwin Gonzalez came up to the plate. Taijuan threw him a cutter/slider, 89 MPH, and Gonzalez swung out in front of it. It was the first time in the game that an Astro had swung out in front of a pitch.
You've got a kid with an (effectively) high-90's fastball, and a terrible offense, and he goes 17 hitters before he gets anybody "in between" on a swing. He did, however, get the Astros to launch tape-measure home runs on multiple occasions.
What's wrong with this picture?
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We offered, in the pre-game, that Taijuan (in his template)... Read More
Dr. D danced the futterwacken most vigorously
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/14
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As Morrow ... um, Taijuan .... labored through the first two innings, there were FANTABULOUS camera shots of Rick Waits conferring in the dugout with Willie Bloomquist. That is some great work right there. What a job by the cameraman and producer.
Taijuan came out in the 2nd and snapped off the curve ball. Night and day.
Like James said, if a curve (from the 50% point) breaks letters to knees, like Collin McHugh's always do, you're golden. If you throw a curve that breaks from waist to knees during the last 30 feet, you are just begging for 425 feet to the pull field. If you throw... Read More
OK by us if he continues this arc in 2014
Posted by jemanji on 06/30/14
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Rick sez,
I forget how young Walker is. A mere 21. Man, that is young! Are there any other 21 year olds in a major league starting rotation? -
....
This is a point that Dr. D neglects constantly: Taijuan's learning curve, his rate of progress. Let's not forget that he's a native hoops player, not a ballplayer ... he got better so FAST that it almost seems unique. Trevor Hoffman comes to mind, after the position switch.
Just his mechanics alone ... in about 1.5 seasons, his sports motion went from "ugh" to "major league worthy." That's about 4 standard deviations' worth of progress that... Read More
Sports Illustrated goes inside the Astros, and we get that nugget
Posted by Spectator on 06/30/14
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As part of a much bigger piece on the Houston total rebuild, Sports Illustrated got access to the Astro draft room. Alex Jackson was one of the final four guys under consideration, and we have the SI report of what was said.
Part of it: his swing graded at 80 out of 80. And his chances of joining a club with only 44 members.
Full article here.
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Plus:
Felix vs. Tanaka
What the "RH-enhanced" lineup looks like
Preliminary trade discussion (following directly from the previous)
Avery loves El Paso, plus "the Cous" and Wayne's World continues
Full article here.
Home page here.
Posted by jemanji on 06/29/14
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Or, so the Mariners hope, that an 'era' begins today. They certainly made enough about the idea that "When he gets here, you want him to stay here." So today we reap the benefits, right? :- )
SSI does not take seriously the possibility that Taijuan might have to go back down for more seasoning, like Erasmo or Almonte or somebody. If he's healthy for his next 150 starts, they're going to be for Seattle.
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Wanna hyper up for the ballgame? With this link, you get a pretty good read from BaseballHQ about Taijuan's prospects before LAST season. Before THIS season, HQ says:
"Extremely... Read More
Stars & Scrubs -vs- Cleveland jinx = SSI Wins
Posted by jemanji on 06/29/14
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7 Comments
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Mojician sez,
mojician: Totally satisfying win today. Near perfect game, three runs, 10 hits, series win. Season lead. This was the sort of Cleveland trashing we've been hoping for all these years. Kudos to Rick for calling it and more Kudos to Felix for doing it.
For me, the satisfying part is that it was no accident.
The degree of difficulty was high, the result was completely just (10 hits to 1), the Indians were never better, and there was an aesthetic impression.
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The thought occurred, as Felix "handed the ball to the closer" (big smile), that in the top half of the inning the... Read More
Personal record for fastest dropped bat?
Posted by jemanji on 06/29/14
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2 Comments
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GLS sez,
Looks like Cano can still pull the ball after all. :)
.....
And did you see the attack in the swing? Tomorrow's news today, babe.
Do you rule out the idea that somebody pointed out the 'net debate to him? HEH! In any case ... nice timing there Robby. A couple of days ago we guessed that there were:
80% chance he is choosing to throttle back
15% chance he just needs to be reminded to attack
5% or less chance of a physical cause (in himself, Safeco, whatever)
Today, after the election returns the last couple days, it would be more like
65% chance he was choosing to throttle back... Read More
Also more news-y stuff
Posted by Spectator on 06/29/14
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In which I gently place Ty Kelly in the "not so fast" category.
Full article here.
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Bonus news on:
Bad boy Blash
Choi in left field
Montero back to Tacoma
Full article here.
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And weekend recaps:
The Endy of the World as We Know It (Friday)
Big bullpen drill-down!
Wayne's World!
Tomlin beat-down (Saturday)
Xavier Avery makes the most of "he's the only Xavier left" day -- and then some
Morgan has 6 BB in three games
We told you to watch Osmel Morales
Friday recap here.
Saturday recap here.
Home page here.
Is the dugout a hardened facility? ...
Posted by jemanji on 06/28/14
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3 Comments
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... Even if it is, we doubt it is 1-2 miles distant from the mound.
So our resident super-NPBer IceX flew in the 4,779 miles to catch a Safeco game ... or he drove 6 miles, maybe ... only to catch a dreary 5-0 loss with like 1 hit for the home team, or something.
But in the barren wasteland of a 5-0 loss, he got to see twelve Brandon Maurer pitches. Lose the battle, win the war. Any time, baby.
Oh! Skipping to the end, Maurer faced three guys. Two whuffs and an infield pop. But that is not what you, the discerning SSI denizen, wish to analyze.
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Dr. D's Pre-Game Keys
We all sat up in... Read More
Are we not men?, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/28/14
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4 Comments
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Mojician sez,
[Finishing a string of anti-Cleveland shouts], we lost two Cactus League games to the Indians, and we lost the Cactus League pennant to them by two games. Have the Mariners ever won Spring Training? So much for that. They're thieves! They stole it from us. Filthy, nasty tricksie.
Help! I'm devolving.
...
That's priceless. As are half of the shouts this dude throws into the 'Box.
SSI has an older audience than some blogs. Maybe some of you guys remember the Devo swag? They literally sold yellow raincoats "to help you stay cool during nuclear meltdowns." The Seattle... Read More
Missaki -- the "other" Brazilian kid -- joins Gohara in "exciting teen pitcher" category
Posted by Spectator on 06/27/14
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I was fooled by what appeared to be a "token" appearance by then-16-year-old Daniel Missaki for Team Brazil in a World Baseball Classic play-in tournament in Panama in November 2012.
It was actually a pretty impressive performance.
And he's followed up with two jaw-dropping starts for Pulaski this summer, joining his fellow Brazilian Luiz Gohara in the prospect conversation.
Full article here.
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Also an update on minors:
the logjam in AA and AAA
Debuts of D.J. at Jackson and Jackson and Morgan in Arizona
Yates gets a big promotion
Wayne Taylor is going nuts (who?)
Full article here.
... Read More
Without it, he's about 4.5 WAR rather than 6.5 WAR
Posted by jemanji on 06/26/14
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12 Comments
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Q. What's this discussion about Cano's isolated power?
A. Logan a/k/a Thirteen linked us to Jeff Sullivan's article. Logan graciously called this "a good starting point for a discussion," which made Dr. D smile even before he clicked over.
Nothing Sully, or Logan, for that matter, writes is a "starting point" for a discussion. Their articles either start and finish a discussion, or maybe leave room for a couple of chapters at the end of the book.
Here's that link again. Also, if you click the Shout Box index for June 26 you'll find a stimulating debate that does kick the can down the... Read More
And other stuff
Posted by Spectator on 06/26/14
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First, a reponse to Doc's article on Brandon Maurer in relief.
I posted my article before reading his, but I also said the "third pitch" was a cutter, not a slider.
His slider is in the high 80s and has more vertical break. Pitch f/x either reads them all as sliders or all as cutters. I think this year they've been cutters.
He had all three going in his first start in Miami, and was effective, but then he "lost it" and couldn't get enough separation between the fastball and the cutter, and was getting hit hard on the third time through.
Here's Miami:
Here's one of his bad starts:... Read More
Of blunderbusses (SP, RP), Michelangelos, and Elmer Fudds (Dr D)
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/14
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19 Comments
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M's 4, Sox 5
For those of you who didn't see the game on TV? Maurer came in to face David Ortiz. As Matty pointed out instantly, this means that Taijuan starts in four days. As the booth pointed out concurrently, Taijuan "was throwing 95, 96 MPH in the 9th inning" of his last start.
Maurer fired the first pitch to David Ortiz, 96 MPH, and I'm here to tell you 96 doesn't do it justice. The ball simply exploded, Ortiz sort of blinked a couple of times, and there were ooh's and aah's in the booth.
Second pitch, 86 MPH circle change with superb arm action, and Ortiz swung way through it. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/14
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3 Comments
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Moe Dawg's recent golf/baseball analysis has been among the best he's ever done. We just haven't had a chance to follow on yet (and still don't). Personally, I've had about four "aha" experiences off his golf instruction.
At age 51, let's say we were all in school, the K-12 system. You'd be in grade 17, but Mo and Dr. D would be in like grade 45. Think about it. ;- )
Not often that Dr. D gets a Zen insight -- totally basic, fundamental, and to which he was completely oblivious. For him it is one of the joys of baseball.
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Mo' talked about "trapping" the ball on a sand shot, for... Read More
McClendon's political capital is growing with compounded interest
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/14
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8 Comments
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M's 8, Red Sox 2
In case the Red Sox thought Monday was an accident. Take this with you. And enjoy WBC-san tonight, too.
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Erasmo Ramirez
That's four games in a row. His motto has been "I Will. Not. Center. my short fastball."
The result has been nibbling, picking, and 44 strikes vs 49 balls. It's like having your fingernails pulled out with pliers, to watch him aim a pitch at the inside black and desperately hope to nick it, for a called strike.
Those 4 games, in which Erasmo has pitched "with a sense of danger," he has walked 16 men and struck out 15. If you just joined us, it is not... Read More
4 reasons the M's might be better than we think
Posted by jemanji on 06/25/14
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9 Comments
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So the Kansas City Royals had won +10 games IN. A. ROW. before they ran into the 250-HP woodchipper that is Safeco Field.* And then we demonstrated to The Resurrected John Lackey (TM) that his 2.50 ERA had been fake all along.
You watch the Mariners play, and they don't physically LOOK like they're on pace for 87-91 wins** and a playoff spot. No way no how.
But actually, the M's are +6 over .500 for the first time since their 116th win in 2001.*** And they're better than they look. And there is an argument to be made that they don't need to add anything that is actually available.
Four... Read More
Plus Zunino, Walker, rookies, etc.
Posted by Spectator on 06/25/14
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Since April 23 and his Epic Tide-Turning 11-Pitch-At-Bat Home Run, you can argue that Kyle Seager has been the best third baseman in the game. 11 HR, .897 OPS.
And Mike Zunino, defensive catcher, seems to provide a little help with the bat, too.
Erasmo Ramirez exits, stage right. Taijuan Walker enters. [We think.]
Jack Marder makes himself relevant again.
Full article here.
***
And an Arizona Rookie League preview here. General Jackson and Captain Morgan both on the roster, plus the awesome Brazilian teen Luiz Gohara.
Pulaski Mariners preview here. Watch for Yordi Calderon, and... Read More
Right on cue, Gordon's warm-weather crooked numbers
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/14
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Not that Dr. D is like Mr. LoMo fan. But there are some things we dutifully report:
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June 13, 2014
Nick Tepesch threw Morrison a pitch, forget what it was, and Morrison hit it 15 rows deep. Smoother than country butter on gramma's biscuits.
... except the ball was caught on the warning track. We replayed it many times, blinking through the tears :: choke :: trying to figure out why it wasn't upper deck. (Well, aside from the fact that upper deck in straightaway center-right is about 500 feet here.) One thing we noticed was that LoMo admired the HR off the bat for a long second, then... Read More
Serendipity, baby
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/14
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3 Comments
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Image 1
This was the 431-foot shot off a Capuano meatball. Let's talk LEVERAGE vs FORCE.
Did you know there are situations, in sports, that don't allow much time for leverage? Like when Cristiano Ronaldo launches an ICBM into your goal box with 15 seconds left to advancement. But yeah. Fewer moving parts can, sometimes, allow more of a head start.
Interesting how LOW his hands are, and they do never come up much. Also his shoulders stay unusually relaxed.
This is a classic body language signal for sincere relaxation -- in public speaking, for example, if Dr. D's vocal folds are... Read More
M's rotation making possible a quite leisurely summer
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/14
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John Benson had a winter saying, "Whatever Joe Shlablotnik did in the second half, that's the player he is. Discard the 1H "noise" and go with the player. John won some championships with this "what have you been doing lately" shtick.
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FELIX - has 11.4 strikeouts, 1.2 walks, and 0 homers (of course) over the last month. The FIP is zero-plus. Best of all, he pitches tonight.
...
WBC-san - Has 7.6, 1.1 and 1.6 homers (with 1.2 being too high and 1.4 being "out of the league"). In case you just joined us, that is the game-within-the-game on an Iwakuma night.
Others might ax, "What is... Read More
Rainbows and Sunshine, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/23/14
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2 Comments
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Grizzly sez,
Ken Rosenthal: Speaking of GM’s on the hot seat, Jack Zduriencik is on a mission to win games and save his administration, according to rival executives. The Mariners have been branded as one of the most active teams on the trade market, with Nick Franklin as the most obvious trade asset. Rosenthal notes that the team lacks financial flexibility, which may make it hard to acquire high impact talent.
Well, that makes sense. The Mariners, with the ink not even dry on their nuclear TV contract, are 18th in payroll. But none shalt be spent on winning, as such, even in terms of 30... Read More
Would be an SSI Best Bet … except we ran out of certificates
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/14
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10 Comments
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Bill James said last week, in the Hey Bill section,
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I often hear “the pitcher let that curveball hang in the strike zone” from TV announcers after a well-hit ball (though it usually “hung” not far above the batter’s knees), almost as often as I hear the same TV announcers congratulating the same pitchers for throwing curves that get called strikes. “You can’t win unless you can throw the curve for a strike,” is how that usually goes. Is this just hypocrisy? 20/20 hindsight? Or am I just not getting something about curveballs in the strike zone? Being a skeptic, I think the same curve... Read More
#1 SP
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/14
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The Mariners are 37-36 ... with a Ptythagorean expectation of 40-33. Their run differential of +33 would have them at around +100 to finish the year -- usually plenty to get into the playoffs - but their W/L is lagging their runs gained and lost.
As we know, their offense at 90 OPS+ is:
Searching for answers
At 90, hardly the train wreck they used to be (79 in 2010 and 84 in 2011)
Capable of finding answer
The pitching staff already sports a 114 OPS+, and that is despite 17-of-63 (27%) of their starts going to Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beavan. That's a little bit like... Read More
There is no #1-2 we would swap our two for
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/14
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#2 Hisashi Iwakuma
The M's record is 25-18 in his starts, 2013-14. That's a 94-win pace: Take one terrific starting pitcher, mix in one terrible offense, and what do you get? 94 wins, 68 losses.
He's had less life on the ball in 2014, which is understandable. Nobody mistook Hisashi Iwakuma for a guy who was going to knock people over for 5 years in a row. His strikeouts are not in the 6+ range, so if you are into Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish and Corey Kluber, then Iwakuma's approach is not going to Wow you.
WBC-san has compensated for the velo dropoff by making sure that he is even more... Read More
Eias and Young: yin and yang in the 3-4 slots
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/14
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2 Comments
The 2014 Mariners sport a shiny, teamwide ERA+ of 114. As we're sure you've noticed, this is because:
Roenis Elias has jumped from AA to give us 15 (!) starts at a 3+ ERA
Chris Young has jumped out of his world-famous San Diego Pool to give us 13 stats at a 3+ ERA
Those two items boast mightily of Jack Zduriencik's ability to cobble a 25-man roster out of a set of preseason question marks. (It would take only a single SP swapout before the 2014 Mariners were able to match the ERA+ of the 2001 Mariners who won 116 games).
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Roenis Elias
Since he started throwing the changeup "dead fish,"... Read More
Tough Choices
Posted by jemanji on 06/19/14
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2 Comments
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Erasmo
Since we first saw him in the minors, we've talkd about an unusual set of strengths and weaknesses:
PRO
Maddux-, Fister-like command and mechanics
Very fine arm action on the chageup
A track record of stringing dominant starts at times
etc
CON
Short stature, short stride, fastball is optically slower than it is on the gun ....
... so he has to be very careful about out-and-over pitches
That last line was true of Maddux and Moyer and Fister, of course.
...........
In Erasmo's last three games, he has locked down enemy lineups --- 0 runs in 15 IP on 11 walks. Look close, because you'... Read More
An innings-eater ... or something more? (rumor mill links him to M's)
Posted by Spectator on 06/19/14
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RHP Jason Hammel is on a one-year deal, and the Cubs are looking to move him soon.
One report said the M's were the likely destination, though there hasn't been much since.
Anyway, we have a two-part rundown here.
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And our usual daily rewind here.
Home page here.
He's moving up toward the "scary-good" category
Posted by Spectator on 06/17/14
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In which I:
attempt to unveil the general awesomeness of the entire bullpen (even Barkeep and Beimel, kinda)
concur that Dominic Leone was perhaps a bit overrated in his first month
attempt to demonstrate that Leone has been way underrated since then
and how, if he keeps it up, he'll be a major weapon and bullpen MVP
Part 1 here.
Part 2 here.
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Also a catch-up rewind from over the weekend here.
Home page here.
have patience with our busted Mechanical Man
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/16/14
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Brad Miller was making me cringe again watching him last night. I had to tell myself to relax, especially as I watch him next to Zunino - two men with similar profiles and positional challenges who are right now trending in opposite directions. Miller's brutal inferno crash this year is frustrating, but not necessarily indicative of a lost career. So let's not get carried away by the aftermath of his two-month carwreck.
We talk all the time about how catching takes a lot out of a hitter, and stunts his growth. Some of it is the crouching, some of it is all the work on the "other aspects"... Read More
It's hard to be a doctor (Frankenstein)
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/16/14
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34 Comments
Lot of railing against Jack in the shouts after last night's game, for good reason. Even though Ackley and Seager both came through last night, the offense is a VERY frustrating zombie-frankenstein creation. We keep looking for signs of life in it, and while it moves and moans it doesn't have that spark that we've been waiting a decade to see.
And we're kinda tired of waiting.
DaddyO: How long before we begin to acknowledge that Jack Zduriencik is simply not the talent genius that we were lead to believe he was? How long before we come to the conclusion that far from being on top of things... Read More
our only internally-developed plus bat is killing it
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/15/14
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3 Comments
So there we are, stranding seven runners over the first four innings, running into double-plays because the batter can't make contact on a hit-and-run, and generally looking like the Mariners. We're a very generous ballclub: very few other teams will make a pitcher terrified to throw a strike look like a scoreless and unscorable machine, but we can do that.
JOlderdude was remarking that we should change our names to the Generals so we can get pantsed a few times on National TV and get paid for playing the stooges. And the worst part is that at .500 and with a great pitching staff we're... Read More
and 1.6 walks. The enemy lineups are running in sand
Posted by jemanji on 06/14/14
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1 Comments
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How about some high-quality photos for you? Phone snaps taken off a TV. Nothing but the best for you, the cherished SSI denizen. Here is a ball-strike count to savor:
... the Rangers had the idea to "get Felix early in the count." That's what The Edgar said, when somebody asked him whether he could take on Randy Johnson. You definitely have to try to stay away from those 2-strike counts.
So Felix just threw everything EXCEPT his change, the first time through the lineup, and he garroted the Rangers through 3 innings with 20-some pitches.
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Wow! I got a 2-0 count!, Dept.
You ever... Read More
Short season starts tonight
Posted by Spectator on 06/13/14
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1 Comments
Everett gets short season ball underway tonight.
Dave Valle leaves the broadcast booth to take the helm.
The year begins with no Luiz Gohara.
A couple of ex-teen-phenoms will try to re-ignite their status.
Seven guys from last week's draft already signed and ready to wear aqua.
Full article here.
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Also Thursday's rewind.
Elias will have those kind of days.
Positive signs on Miller and LoMo.
A funny line for Pries, another offensive burst in the desert, and Wilson needs to move up.
Full article here.
Home page here.
Dr D can feel the love
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/14
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10 Comments
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INPUT/OUTPUT: Didn't see the game. As a Spurs fan, there were higher priorities.
CRUNCH: SSI woulda DVR-scanned the Mariners too, but a "bottom line" peek at the MLB scores forewarned us.
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INPUT/OUTPUT: the Yankee$ sweep three. They go from .500 to +3, while we go from +5 to +2. Balmer also goes to +3.
CRUNCH: :: shrug :: It would be a lot of fun if a huge pack of teams loped along together, all through the summer. And a huge Spalding Sandwich blocked shot for the "purists" who feel it their responsibility to groan every time the playoffs get bigger. Had you rather just NL vs AL... Read More
In four parts ... and other odds & ends
Posted by Spectator on 06/12/14
Posted to blog
First I try to explain how teams have to "underemploy" draft picks in order to "trade up" for better players.
But only through Round 10. I have also now revised and clarified this, since it was not quite right -- thanks Bat!
All of that is here.
Then you have those "below slot" guys in Rounds 3-10.
That's here.
Then the "guys they really want" in Rounds 11-20.
That's here.
Then "the rest of them" including Sheehan and DeAires, our new pet projects (if they sign).
That's here.
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And ... let's see ... stuff I haven't linked to from here yet.
Gosh. A lot.
Wednesday rewind here. Trade rumor... Read More
We give it 1 chance in 4 … this time
Posted by jemanji on 06/12/14
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14 Comments
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Q. So. Does SSI take Montero's PCL performance, adjust it for the league, and plan on that?
A. That's what the Times article did, "tipping the cap" to fangraphs dudes for the analysis. Which ran:
Montero's stats in the PCL are mediocre
And even that doesn't really count, since he hit several HR's in Reno, Vegas, and Arizona (other PCL'ers don't?!)
Therefore, he won't hit much in Seattle. And don't forget he's a farce at any D-position
So this is only because there are no other reasonable 40-man roster moves
I imagine you have grok'ked by now, how SSI feels about the Strat-O-Matic... Read More
Tomorrow's News Today, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/14
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PROPS to Masahiro Tanaka. Dr. D missed the game. Not inadvertently. He checked in via radio for sixty seconds, about the 5th inning, on the off chance that the ballgame would be worth a fast-forwarding. You might have noticed that it wasn't. Well, unless you're into virtuosity for its own sake. Personally, I'm more into the 99c menu of the fastest possible gratification for the least possible effort.
Like Gordon sez, best strategy here would be to avoid Tanaka starts at all costs. You and me as fans; the M's as Wild Card enemies.
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PROPS to youse guys and your Felix comps. We... Read More
Slap me silly, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/11/14
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12 Comments
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I dunno why G-Money didn't simply retire after his 2014 draft recap, acknowledging the applause while slowly spinning around and strolling off the mound. But he followed up some Trade Option Musings, apparently in the spirit of a Bill Watterson-style cameo, and local Dodger fan "tjm" chimed in on Matt Kemp.
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Matt Kemp
BaseballHQ was extremely bullish, projecting Kemp to slug .536 this season with 7.0 runs per 27 outs -- pointing out that Kemp's 2013 "expected Power Index" held up despite the shoulder problems.
"Once you show a skill, you own it," Ron says, sometimes.
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Dr. D sees... Read More
Anybody got some moldy magic beans for our two cows?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/11/14
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11 Comments
The Ms are in a weird spot, starting at playoff contention. Their pitching is carrying them, obviously - our slash line ranks are Last / Last / 3rd-to-Last / 2nd-to-Last. Because of where we play that still gives an OPS+ allll the way up around 91, but that 111 ERA+ (with help on the way for the #5 rotation spot) is getting us what wins we get.
It's a "timely hitting" ballclub, which will be a problem when Bloomie and Gillespie cool off. Maybe Cole won't cool off, and can give us 300 surprising at-bats - but the odds are not ever in his favor.
However, the Ms have both a righty and a... Read More
Track down 9-to-make-5, baby
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/14
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7 Comments
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Q. Why the 201 Scan?
A. Because he looks so good in the batter's box. Major league good.
Not Justin Smoak good, like ".320 standing still" type of good. Cole Gillespie looks good after the pitcher lets the ball go, looks good as he reads the pitch, looks good as he delivers the barrel to the top half of the ball.
He's got a diamond-hard strike zone, and if you look it up you'll see his track record correlates. His OBP's in the PCL were .390-.405 for 4 years running ...
... and when he got up to the AL -- even in his first taste against elite, unfamiliar pitching -- his swings at... Read More
"Somebody has to hit cleanup," Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/10/14
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5 Comments
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Gordon sez,
As for tonight's game: we should have won it about 3 different times, but just couldn't hit the ball between people. It happens. Hopefully we can steal one tomorrow to balance the scales.
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Clearly.
Kyle Seager ripped a long double to right-center, just before Gillespie knocked Cano in ... but the game's only RF/SB king ran the ball down in the gap.
Myriad such missile shots ensued. Michael Saunders hit a home run, 400 feet with a man on base, but it just happened to go to straightway CF and Ellsbury crashed into the wall, high, to pull it down. That ball goes to any other... Read More
Upper minors - status: hit-and-missing in action
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/10/14
Posted to blog
7 Comments
Yesterday we looked at the state of the low-minors two months into the season. Today we'll do the upper. It's got a strange symmetry to it, and you'll notice that we don't have a ton of great pitching what with Hultzen, Walker and Paxton on the DL/rehab to greater and lesser degrees and Maurer getting bounced to the pen. I expected to do more with arms in the draft to help this, but when you get the opportunity for two great teen hitters I guess you just have to take em. I'm not complaining - but the system looks a little weird right now up top. For example...
Jackson top 3 hitters:
... Read More
Pt 1: low minors (yes, it's kinda long). Status: smouldering
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/09/14
Posted to blog
6 Comments
So here's our annual (is it annual? Whatever...) post-draft system look. We added a couple of bright lights and various votive candles in the draft - what does the system look like now? How are last year's draftpicks doing? How's our top-20? Do we have anyone we can trade for a bowl of sushi and some Pez?
We're coming up on the lower level All-Star games, so there's a decent sample to look at. Here's the system at a glance. Or maybe a linger, since I'm not terse today. Sorry for the verbiage - hope the three of you who read it enjoy it.
New draft picks:
Alex Jackson: RH Ryan... Read More
I got yer Baseball Info Solutions right here, pal
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/14
Posted to blog
11 Comments
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Richard Sherman "Mismatch!" Dept.
Felix didn't pitch good.
At least, not compared to himself. He didn't pitch good-er than usual. Not in the sense that his stuff was better than usual; it wasn't.
About the 3rd inning, he simply grok'ked that the Rays -- though loaded with AL veterans like Zobrist, Longoria, DeJesus, Jennings, etc -- couldn't make contact with his dry spitter, and everything then revolved around that.
You know how James Jones swings, when somebody throws him a good overhand yakker? Like somebody trying to catch a fly in mid-air with his bare hand, fingers splayed?... Read More
Follow the pennant race with Dr. D's blessing
Posted by jemanji on 06/08/14
Posted to blog
8 Comments
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Q. They're on pace for 86 wins, 76 losses. Would that ever get the second Wild Card?
A. In the AL, the #6 teams over the past ten years -- the teams the #5 squads have had to exceed -- have been as follows:
Season
W's needed to be #5
WC2 Club
W's by #6
Remark
2013
91
TB/Tex
91
Playoff #5 vs #6
2012
91
Bal
90, Tampa
2011
87
Bos
86, LAA
2010
89
Bos
88, ChiSox
95+ L's Bal, Sea, KC
2009
87
Tex
86, Det
97-98 L's by 3x clubs
2008
89
NYY
88, Min
2007
88
Sea/Det
M's made new playoffs
2006
88
LAA
87, Tor
2005
89
Cle
88, Oak
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The last two years were the only times, the last decade,... Read More
Squeaky wheel gets the grease, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 06/06/14
Posted to blog
15 Comments
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Q. Did he just start relieving? His game logs show April appearances out of the bullpen.
A. Yeah, on rehab. But this time they sent him down, stretched out and ready to start ... and he closed the game. Got the save, no less, albeit in a double-header.
On May 29, he got tater'ed again as a Mariner starter.
On May 30, SSI once again pulled out its prescription pad and wrote the R/X for Maurer to the bullpen.
On June 3, Maurer appeared for the Rainiers... as a reliever.
On June 6, Maurer closed a game for the Rainiers.
You know that it was purely SSI's extremely convincing "Starter's... Read More
Lazy-style, cuz Day Two just wasn't that interesting
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/06/14
Posted to blog
14 Comments
This is a summary thread for the first two days of the draft. I'm basically just gonna ramble a bit, since the shout box is down so I can't be even MORE lazy and just cut and paste from some of the good discussion we had on a day that probably wasn't worth the time we devoted to it. Day Two wasn't some thrillfest, so let's not go crazy about it, hmm? :-)
1st - Alex Jackson, RH prep OF/C. Summary of my feelings on him: Ryan Klesko level bat. P-I has used Matt Holliday as a comp, while I'm not going there yet, but he's got size and power, and an all-fields approach that's pretty nice. ... Read More
For the swing analysts
Posted by Spectator on 06/06/14
Posted to blog
1 Comments
I have a new post up with super slo-mo freeze-frame images from an Alex Jackson home run swing.
Full "article" here.
Home page here.
Can't pay RH sluggers to come to Seattle, so let's draft as many as we can
Posted by Spectator on 06/06/14
Posted to blog
Summary: the hunt for right-handed power -- now with added teenagers!
Full article here.
Alex Jackson: he was not supposed to be there at No. 6, but he was. Good for Seattle.
Full article here.
Gareth Morgan: Maybe the good version of an Upton? We can hope. The proverbial "raw, toolsy" guy; this time from Canada and mentored by ... who?
Full article here.
More to come.
Home page here.
If the best hitter this year is a high schooler, then ...
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/14
Posted to blog
8 Comments
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... here is what Dr. D infers from the videos, the hitting templates, and the general consensus of the great evaluators of teenaged baseball players. Not too much. But we need a thread :- )
...
Q. What does the Mainframe NOT like about his swing?
A. Thusly:
1) Way too much lower-body "noise" in the load. Compare Franklin, Nick, who had to completely re-tool his backswing after reaching the majors. This is a quibble, though, because Jackson has belched things bigger than Nick Franklin.
2) The finish, to me, goes beyond "compact" into "tight and tense." Dr. D should know; that's his... Read More
90-92 MPH could be 93-95 in the 'pen
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/14
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Bat571 sez,
Well, if Matt Palmers throw a bullpen rather than starting tomorrow for the Rainiers, we'll know who's taking that next start. if Palmer takes the start, it's either E-Ram again or they'll try Pries. Not much in choices left.
[Later] That's my idea with Jeff Locke - bring him in as an interim starter and keep him as a LOOGY once Walker and K-Pax are back.
Hadn't noticed. Good catch Bat.
Palmers started and lost ... Pries would take a 40-man move, right? We certainly hope that their trepidation over Taijuan's "readiness" doesn't cost them that much.
.........
Interesting 'put... Read More
Grizzle and Rick hip-check Dr. D into the cheaps
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/14
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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A fandango! Being (1) a lively dance for two, and/or (2) "a foolish act." Invented at SSI, the term quickly became popular in many countries.
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MtGrizzly sez,
Darn. Walker needs more time. At least one more Erasmo Snell start. Maybe two.
Or, this being the M's, maybe five.
Or: they do what they do when "Closers" are throwing the ball badly in the 7th or 8th inning, or on rehab stints. "He just needs the adrenaline." And they believe it. When it suits them, they're perfectly commited to the idea of, "Just get him in there where it means something, and he'll bear down."
But yeah. They... Read More
and avoid fried foods, which angry up the blood
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/14
Posted to blog
1 Comments
Dr. Grumpy sez,
IIRC Taro was pretty negative on Smoak right from the start, after he saw some tape. I think he complained about his bat speed and also foot speed as well as expressing surprise that Smoak did not seem to be an elite defender as had been advertised.
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/moe-talent-evaluation-after-draft-day#comment-145709
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Thanks for getting Taro the shout-out. A fave poster for all of us, but where did he go? :- )
.....
Was just looking at this very thing, footspeed. This is about 5 degrees off to the left, but ... The other day, he hit... Read More
Moe the Dawg on "Getting Up and Down" from the sand
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/14
Posted to blog
13 Comments
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Our resident scratch golfer --- > unfolded the 3-foot step tool, climbed up and screwed in a 150-watt Zen lightbulb for us. :: golfclap ::
Even as we try to SABR-matize baseball evaluation, the sport's best evaluators miss WAY more than they get right.
My point is that Smoak and Ackley "appeared" to be more talented than Seager, and Montero did too. But they weren't, for reasons nobody identified.
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In the NBA, you can give a high school draft pick $80,000,000 before he ever plays a game (1 game) in college, much less playing a game in the NBA. If "you" are Nike, that is. Think about... Read More
Gotta be a good feelin', jack
Posted by jemanji on 06/05/14
Posted to blog
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Moe chips to inside five feet, and then buries the putt and lifts his club with the left hand, like the Golden Bear taking his last jacket at the age of 46 ...
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Of course there is the chance Ackley finds a stroke that works or Smoak finds another 20 feet on the balls he rips. To proceed on that chance, however, when the (bulk of) empirical evidence that comes out of the on-the-field forge indicates otherwise, is an essential error.
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So Moe's verdict is, that the Mariners are showing pretty bad judgment Ackley and Smoak.
We all have bad judgment sometimes, and seldom do we want to pick... Read More
Consensus now likes Alex Jackson to M's; we like Consensus
Posted by Spectator on 06/05/14
Posted to blog
A host of last-minute mock drafts in convenient grid form.
Many signs point to Alex Jackson, the California prep slugger being available at No. 6, which would be excellent ... if they turn out to be right.
Full article here.
===
And some other stuff:
Wednesday's rewind:
Hot arms on the second day in Atlanta
Bullpen solidifying
Pizzano & Wilson go deep
Full article here.
Tuesday special minors rewind:
Jabari Blash goes nuts with three homers (video link!)
Taijuan Walker, on the other hand, was "shaky"
Any many other "implications" at Tacoma right now
Full article here.
Tuesday... Read More
Working hard at the wrong things, maybe?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 06/02/14
Posted to blog
5 Comments
This is an article on Australian coaching of Olympic and world-level competitors, but I liked the quotes.
‘One of the first things I understood as a coach is that you can never want success more than the athletes you are working with. As an athlete I wanted that success really badly, but in the end I just didn’t have sufficient talent.
‘So you start coaching these guys – some of them were your former teammates – and you see they have this enormous amount of talent and you think “if this guy could just get his act together, he would be winning everything', and you end up very frustrated.
‘The... Read More
"Get that weak slop out of the lane," they advise him
Posted by jemanji on 06/02/14
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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... which is the beauty of being pessimistic. When you lose, you win :- )
After Victor Martinez' "Five-Year At Bat" against Hisashi Iwakuma on Friday, Dr. D (with many of you amigos) wrung his hands despairingly. "That's the difference between a contendah and a pretendah," we moaned.
...
Whereupon the M's #6 and #5 starters promptly went out and wrote their own Kevin James "Here Comes the Boom" storylines against Drew Smyly and (gasp) Max Scherzer.
Didn't see the Roenis Elias game, unfortunately. Had been warning you that he was capable, but we don't get many points for that. We do... Read More
Draft news, Elias, Young, Bloomquist make for an interesting weekend
Posted by Spectator on 06/02/14
Posted to blog
More mock drafts:
"Everyone" seems to agree on the Top 4, but not the order.
No one really agrees on No. 6, although LSU's Aaron Nola is probably the closest thing.
If the Cubs throw in a wrinkle, then it could get interesting.
Full article here.
Sunday rewind:
Elias reigns.
A preposterous number of curveballs for strikes.
It's safe to look at the Wild Card standings again.
Austin Wilson and Christian Carmichael lead a Clinton explosion.
Full article here.
Saturday rewind:
Young emerging as non-outlier?
Bloomie blooms at the right time.
A cool NCAA story.
Another Blash... Read More