Cole Gillespie, Level 201 Scan
Track down 9-to-make-5, baby

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Q.  Why the 201 Scan?

A.  Because he looks so good in the batter's box.  Major league good.

Not Justin Smoak good, like ".320 standing still" type of good.  Cole Gillespie looks good after the pitcher lets the ball go, looks good as he reads the pitch, looks good as he delivers the barrel to the top half of the ball.

He's got a diamond-hard strike zone, and if you look it up you'll see his track record correlates.  His OBP's in the PCL were .390-.405 for 4 years running ...

... and when he got up to the AL -- even in his first taste against elite, unfamiliar pitching -- his swings at pitches outside the strike zone have been minimal.

He's super short to the ball, reliably gets on top of it with a KBIZLT swing, and he could line a ball to RF in his sleep.  Looks kind of like a tall Derek Jeter when he's in the batter's box.

No, this is one kid who learned how to hit in the minors.  Now he's hitting.  That's all.

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Q.  Could he become a major league starter?

A.  I don't see how he can.  In principle.

Supposing you spot Dr. D his estimate that --- > Gillespie's AAA track record, and current plate coverage, translate to --- > a .280 batting average with 40-50 walks a year and mild gap power and only fair speed.

Who are the right-handed corner outfielders who do that?

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Q.  He has hit .300/.400/.500 for like four years in a row at AAA.  Is that meaningless?

A.  It is not meaningless, no.  Go back and find the journeymen who reliably OBP .400 and you'll find a nice percentage of players who could play just fine, one level up.

It says here, at SSI, that in Cole Gillespie's specific case --- > those AAA stats will translate to big-league hitting.  100 OPS+?  110?  Dunno.

........

I mean, even the Bryan LaHair and Mike Carp types, they could get to MLB(tm) and hit.  The question is whether Cole Gillespie can (theoretically) hit enough to hold down one of 30 MLB(tm) right field jobs in the world.

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Q.  Do any ML players fit that skill set?

A.  Sure, but they're all left hand hitters or they are glove position players.

  • Milton Bradley
  • John Jaso
  • Shin-Soo Choo (the tippy-top of this high OBP, mild SLG template)
  • Nick Markakis
  • Mark Grace, JT Snow, and their ilk
  • Jose Vidro types .... natural .300 hitters who, when aging, sustained .300/.360/.440
  • Corey Koskie ... tough .280 with walks
  • Matt Lawton
  • etc

The thing is, all these guys are lefty.  Meaning, for one thing, that they can get out of the LH batter's box and sustain .280 averages despite --- > low HR and the laws of BABIP.  Meaning, for another thing, they live their lives with the platoon advantage.

MOTO players like Victor Martinez, Kendrys Morales, those guys ... .280-.290 with fairly good BB's ... they have enough HR power to scare the pitcher off the plate.  We've talked about this with John Jaso, how pitchers stop walking batters who don't scare them.

But Cole Gillespie can hurt you a little bit.

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Q.  How about Cole Gillespie vs Logan Morrison, as bench bat?

A.  Well, he's right-handed.  And Gillespie is a whale of a lot more fun to watch.  I'll take Gillespie in that matchup.

Over Smoak, too.

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Q.  So a player like this can impact a pennant race?

A.  He already has.  He started 6 games out of the 8-for-9 streak - was a lineup regular during the resurgence.

Interestingly, the M's are 13-6 when Gillespie appears in a game.  I don't say that's the gospel truth, but your :- ) question was, can a Cole Gillespie contribute?  Think 2001 and Javier-McLemore.

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Q.  So who is the starting player that Cole Gillespie could aspire to, if everything broke right for him?

A.   As a starting RF?  It ain't in the cards.

Only a very few Kirby Pucketts defy gravity.  Cole Gillespie don't look like Kirby to me.  (SaberDog Dan can go check Gillespie's contact rate, if so desired.)

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Q.  How about, Not as a starter?  What could he aspire to then?

A.  In part-time play, his advantage is that he doesn't get overexposed.  Big Blog used to always single out the 300-AB David DeJesus, John Jaso guys, and figure their performances would bear the 90-degree sun of 550 AB's.  (The Seattle blog-o-sphere has since figured that one out.)

But in 300 AB's?  Sneaking up on people?  What could Cole Gillespie give you, for a couple of years?

Guys like this will give you .300/.380/.470 seasons and bail you out of your problems.

Year Hitter AVG OBP SLG Remark
2013 Andy Dirks .320 .370 .485 In 344 AB's; now struggling
2010-12 Jeff Keppinger .300 .350 .420 Three good RH years
2012 John Jaso .275 .395 .455 Only 207 AB's for Oak in '13
2010 Wilson Betemit .300 .380 .510 Good hitter in PT play
etc etc        

If you wanted to press for a good RH hitter in Gillespie's template, you could say Alex Gordon, or even a Derek Jeter wannabe.  

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Q.  How is he defensively?

A.  John Dewan's stats, and Dr. D, gingerly concur:  he's a plus right fielder, defensively.  He's okay coming in and going back ... really good side-to-side.  Count his defense as a few runs added.

Left field is weird.  Nobody can play that position in Safeco without experience there, it seems.

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Q.  Leaving us where?

A.  A poor man's Derek Jeter or Ian Kinsler, playing corner outfield ... hm.  You'd rather have Nelson Cruz, certainly.  Or Adam Dunn at DH.   Or Corey Hart, if he could get rolling ... 

But the Mariners have done a whale of a lot worse at DH at times.  Times such as "now," with Endy Chavez in the lineup.

If they have a rawhide-tough .290/.360/.430 righty, who Keeps His Bat In the Zone a Long Time (KBIZLT) and lines "hard RBI" singles to RF for us against tough pitching ... well, we always liked Billy Beane's 9-to-make-5 idea.  There are liable to be a lot of games where Cole Gillespie gets you an RBI that Justin Smoak wouldn't get you.  

So he can chip in, until you have a real corner outfielder.  That's what Stars & Scrubs are all about.  Gotta feel good for Zduriencik, to watch a guy like this jump into the fray and help keep you in it.

Cheers,

Dr D

 

Blog: 

Comments

1

Which I've been comping him to McLemore for only the last 2 months. :) But McLemore could play 3B and 2B when needed and even occasionally CF. So he's a slightly less useful version of Mark McLemore. Been a loooooowwwng time since the Mariners had such a useful benchie.

2

Guys like Gillespie usually play in CF to survive, Rajai Davis types....although Davis is not a CF any longer. But for us, right now...Gillespie is valuable. He gives nothing away to the pitcher and looks so natural at the plate that he will stay for a while. I was disappointed in the platoon switch last night where Chavez came in and hit for him. I think Mac over-managed that a bit....as he did with Buck swinging at the end. I would MUCH rater see Gillespie in the game over Smoak or Ackley. And it's not even close. And I don't care if we're facing LHP or RHP. BTW, doesn't Gillespie LOOK (at first blush) like he would be decent in CF, if needed?
moe

3

It'd be nice if we could somehow mush Cole and TyK together, but even separate, it looks like the makings of a good bench for the future.
One point where I'm confused - you say he looks like a tall Derek Jeter in the batter's box - Jeter is 6'4" and Cole is 6'1" - is it just the stance; that Cole is more upright?

4

Yeah.  Yesterday it smacked to me of "look mom, I'm pushing buttons."
That comes off way harsher than intended ... in April and May, Dr. D was staunchly giving McClendon a 6-7 on a scale of 10, back when the blog-o-sphere was about to make him a Bavasi-style whipping boy.  I like Lloyd.  Hope the win streaks don't get him into modes where he's wanting his fingerprints on everything.
That was too harsh, too, huh?  :- D

5

Will cheerfully admit that I didn't realize he was 6'4".  Aikido senseis would swoon and fall away in ecstatic bliss to watch the way he moves with his weight constantly sunk into the ground.
But yeah.   Thanks Bat.  Lemme revise to say "Gillespie looks like a Derek Jeter who carries his CG a lot higher."

6
CMB1's picture

To the point, he looks great in the box. Maybe Ackley could learn something from this guy?

7

And he should be spelling Ackley, Jones, and Saunders regularly. He's our hot hand right now.
And beware, this is the time in which prospects are handed out for immediate help. Not that we shouldn't do it - although history suggests we shouldn't. But if we do make trades, let's keep the future "we could have had Ortiz, Varitek, Choo, Cabrera, Jones" laments to a minimum (beginning with me). :-)

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