I said that Felix' pitch f/x ERA (a lot of clubs have used pitch f/x information to project an ERA based on location, movement and velocity by pitch type) is routinely higher than his actual ERA...that you couldn't understand a pitcher with any artistry in his game by adding up the stuff and getting the complete pitcher - and that the degree to which a pitcher beats his pitch F/X line i real world production was his pitchability.
This line of reasoning produced some fascinating discussions in interviews. :) I recall one conversation in which we looked up Felix Hernandez specifically and found that his change-up gets far...far better results than the pitch f/x details would suggest and theories were tossed around as to why (arm action? pitch sequences? strategic deployment to specific hitter types?).
The correct answer, of course, is yes. :)
He does all of that well...he's one of the smartest pitchers I've ever seen.
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Richard Sherman "Mismatch!" Dept.
Felix didn't pitch good.
At least, not compared to himself. He didn't pitch good-er than usual. Not in the sense that his stuff was better than usual; it wasn't.
About the 3rd inning, he simply grok'ked that the Rays -- though loaded with AL veterans like Zobrist, Longoria, DeJesus, Jennings, etc -- couldn't make contact with his dry spitter, and everything then revolved around that.
You know how James Jones swings, when somebody throws him a good overhand yakker? Like somebody trying to catch a fly in mid-air with his bare hand, fingers splayed?
That was the way with the Rays on Sunday, trying to hit Felix' changeup. I was amazed during the game. Felix simply took his index finger off the baseball, threw it as hard as he could toward the knees, and the Rays swung over pitch after Pitch after PITCH after PIIIITTTTTCH!
It's a rare thing in baseball, an authentic mismatch like this one was. I have no idea what was going on with the Rays, but ... it was as though they couldn't see Felix' changeup. They dialed down their swings, "felt" for the ball, and still swung 4" over it, time after time. Exactly the way a mediocre high school hitter does, the first time he sees a drop pitch.
Here is the video if you want to wallow in the mismatch. Has Dr. D ever steered you wrong, as to what was going on during a ballgame?
:: basks in Felix' glory ::
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It's Like Keeping the Hope Diamond in a Cigar Case, Dept.
... the line they used about Junior, from 1989-1996.
Felix didn't throw the changeup differently and it didn't break differently. As a matter of fact, the only difference was that he threw it a little higher than usual - after it broke, it still caught the knees.
Of course his "dry spitter" is one of the best, if not the best, pitches in baseball. But most teams can make contact if they focus on that pitch alone (which the Angels and Rangers of course do).
It's a testimony, maybe, to what happens if batters haven't had 50 AB's to tune in on Felix' amazing changeup? ... which has very pleasant implications for a World Serious. Let me read that sentence again.
The current edition of Felix, the 2014 version with the steaks in him and his strength back ... you get the idea that a hitter needs to have seen him many, many times to have a fighting chance.
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Never Get a 2nd Chance to Make a 1st Impression, Dept.
We've been meaning to write a post or six about Felix' intelligence on the mound. It is only recently that SSI has begun to perceive the depths of this man's artistry, that he pitches (even) more intelligently than Hisashi Iwakuma or Jamie Moyer.
Does Felix look intelligent to you, or does he look like an MMA fighter? :- ) A Cartelua? That's not a Greg Maddux face. And so we can be rather slow to associate him with pitching chess games. But that's what he is doing out there.
In each game, he reads his opposition like Mike Caro's Poker Tells. Today it took about 5 hitters, and then Felix triangulated the issue, and the result was the 15 strikeouts you enjoyed.
Will be nice, if we get to see him do it under the bright lights. That's what HOF Aircraft Carriers are for. Like James says, the fabric of baseball history is written on Hall of Fame starting pitchers.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Then wow, did you have him eating out of your hand Matty :- )
Great story. ... a bit surprising that *you* brought the idea of Pitchability to the *interviewers.* That's a cool twist on the anecdote.
:: daps ::
...it's not like they were unaware that Felix has pitchability. :) I think they were trying to get me to come up with clear, statistically-oriented ways of teasing out those sorts of intangibles and thus demonstrate my ability to think through complex problems with the scientific method, devise experiments, and create practical solutions.
Though I do think they were a bit surprised at the large gap between Felix' outcomes and his projected outcomes. :)
Felix and Kuma have been well managed this year. McClendon seems to generally pull the plug at 7 innings or 100 pitches, whichever is more. I took a gander at the baseball reference game logs expecting to find poor outings following high pitch count games and didn't find them.
Felix has only reached a 110+ pitch count three times, and had an excellent outing the next turn each time.
Iwakuma has never reached 100 pitches in any start.
It seems like pitcher safety is the Mariners' no. 1 priority. And thats as it should be, unless we are in the playoffs or something.
... that's a great 'put Mojo.
Ya, it's funny how many good things we can find about McClendon now that he gets the benefit of the doubt, eh? 's all in the jury selection, ain't it .....
"Pitching's the name of the game," McClendon said. "If they pitch well, you're going to love me and probably give me the keys to the city. And if they don't, you'll be kicking my butt out of town."
Fans will cheerfully judge Lloyd harshly, or generously, based on his own W-L record. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt, or deny it to him, based on his outcomes. And cheerfully tell you that's the way life is.
We don't transfer the idea too well to jobs outside sports, but at least in sports, we have a lurking reminder of the "you're responsible for yourself" concept.
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You must have mixed feelings in your line of work Mojo. :- ) Did you relish or resent the Jim Carrey line in Liar Liar? "Your client called. He's in custody again and seeks legal counsel." :: yells into phone :: Stop Breaking The Law NimWit!
Most people go their whole life without needing a lawyer. The courts are generally used to manage a small segment of the population. A single person might be a victim in one case, a defendant in another, may have an open children's service case, custody case, DV restraining order, a lawsuit from her credit card company and an eviction, all at the same time.
One prosecutor told me that the worst part of prosecuting was that most of the people he prosecuted were of low intelligence, had mental defects and were from disadvantaged backgrounds and horrible upbringings. "It always seems like I'm picking on the dumbest most down and out guys" he said.
More than advocating and winning, I see lawyering as a somewhat priestly function. A lawyer reconciles the anti social with society and reconciles the accused with government.
It may seem like the idiots get away with too much in the US. This is true compared to communist regimes where all antisocial behavior is jailable. Miss an appointment in Venezuela? jail. Say disrespectful things? Jail. Fidel Castro executed drug addicts.
In the United States we have more freedom than some places to live the good life. The problem with that is there is not swift justice for people who choose to live the bad life. Is that a bad thing?
Hate to just promote my own work, but check out the chart of the bullpen on the road trip.
0.44 ERA, 0.68 WHIP
http://marinerbrainstorm.com/2014/06/10/game-63-monday-minors-rewind-kin...
It's about halfway down.
Not sure what you said in there, that didn't capture the letter and spirit of what Jefferson & Cohorts intended. Were you anticipating that I'd disagree with something or other in there? :- )
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The "priestly reconciliation" self-image is gorgeous, gorgeous, gorgeous. Will contemplate that for some time, in its various applications to the "dumbest, most down-and-out guys."
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I think almost EVERY American is willing to pay a steeeeep price in "swift justice" in order to get the remarkable liberty that we enjoy. Undoubtedly, you sit in court across from the 1% who disagree ...
Thanks Mojo.
Great chart, Jim. We SHOULD win a bunch of games if nobody can score off of us. We really need to find enough offense that our pen isn't expected to do that all the time - as last night showed, sometimes you'll give up the base knock for a run, and we have to be able to bounce back.
If Walker is up the next go through the rotation, however, and he's ready... our starting 5 will be as good as any in the league, and the pen hopefully won't HAVE to be superhuman for us to keep ekeing out more victories than losses.