Moe Talks Talent Evalution (during MLB careers)
Gotta be a good feelin', jack


Moe chips to inside five feet, and then buries the putt and lifts his club with the left hand, like the Golden Bear taking his last jacket at the age of 46 ...


 Of course there is the chance Ackley finds a stroke that works or Smoak finds another 20 feet on the balls he rips. To proceed on that chance, however, when the (bulk of) empirical evidence that comes out of the on-the-field forge indicates otherwise, is an essential error.


So Moe's verdict is, that the Mariners are showing pretty bad judgment Ackley and Smoak.

We all have bad judgment sometimes, and seldom do we want to pick that out as the cause of our problems.  There was a cool chess poll up one time, "What was the cause of your last defeat?"

  • Overlooked a tactical threat
  • Time pressure
  • etc
  • etc
  • Bad positional judgment

One chessplayer handed his in and said, smilingly, that he doubted any player would EVER answer, "bad positional judgment."  We want to minimize the cause of our self-inflicted wounds, to write them off as "just one of those things.  It just happens once in a while; it won't next time."

From the standpoint of self-improvement, how much are we helping ourselves with that answer?  :- )

If the M's are showing bad judgment on Smoak and Ackley, fine.  They showed sparkling judgment on Roenis Elias, Chris Young, and other guys.  But those two, as you all have reminded again and again, have saved the 2014 season.


The M's have a strange habit of seeing the hot streaks those guys put up and believing the "true" Smoak or Ackley has finally surfaced. In doing so, they close their eyes to the vast amount of evidence that suggests that isn't the case.

And I'm not even talking about going out and buying new talent right now. There is evidence that Montero creams lefties, it exists. To pretend it doesn't because he was a butterball in ST is organizational insanity.


Also a wonderful point!  

If this is accurate, and the M's look too hard at "Good Ackley" and not hard enough at "Bad Ackley," that could help them hit correctly on the Kyle Seagers and Michael Saunders.  They saw the "Bad Seager" and went from there.

That's not an incrimination.  It's understandable, and sometimes the approach works out great.  Bill Walsh found Joe Montana, when nobody else did, because he looked at Montana's POTENTIAL at Notre Dame.  Walsh figured he could "coach Montana up" to repeat his "Good Montana" side.

The players that the M's "married," they may be (disproportionately) the "Golden Boys" who never had to grind much.  


Moe sez,

We can continue to saddle up on Smoak and Ackley because "they are just about to figure it out."

Or we can try guys, already within the organization and low cost (and with decent pedigrees, I might add), to see if their talent translates to Seattle and Safeco.


James had that excellent article last year, reminding us, "All other things being equal, if you have given a Brandon Maurer 25 starts at a 5.00 ERA, and you have somebody comparable in AAA ... stick with Maurer.  Build on what you've invested."  

(Of course, he wasn't talking about sticking with Gregg Olson over James Paxton.)

There's nothing wrong with building on an investment until it goes too far, which The Smoak Project has in my mind.  95% of us would love to see somebody else get a chance, the moment there is a dynamic choice available.   :: coughMonteroGillespieEtc ::

But Smoak was a "given" in the lineup to start the year, and he is just as much a "given" now.  He even hits what, 5th.  At the 86 OPS+.  

McClendon seems to think he and Cano can teach Smoak to hit, that they are the change of scenery.  Maybe he's right.



We get it right sometimes, see Jones or Elias. Both were great finds, truly the diamonds in the rough. The down side is that those correct calls may convince the M's that their subjective evaluations of Smoak and Ackley were right all along, and we should stick with them. Arrrrrgh.


Yes.  They get pitching right, more than their share of the time.

Which is weird, because the Milwaukee pedigree is based on Prince, Steve Braun, Weeks, etc ... wasn't it?  Maybe that means that Zudiencik is an all-around great minor league guy.


And, as they tailor up the green jacket, Moe waves to the crowd with both hands, doing a slow 360 and taking it in.  , Moe sez

I would be more than happy if Ackley went elsewhere and learned to hit, because I don't believe he can be an effective COF for us.

The minors are filled with great AAA hitters who don't/can't/won't translate to the majors on a repeating basis. The two we have are killing us.


Me too.  When Justin Smoak does a Carlos Pena elsewhere, I won't lose a moment's sleep.  Dustin Ackley is going to have one nice pre-contract year and then Bora$ will cheerfully "view Seattle as a residency, honorable served," in ARod fashion.  For me, the sooner Ackley moves on, the better.

Ackley, Montero, Smoak, for those three to misfire like that ... it shows you how much LUCK is involved in this game.

Thanks Moe!


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